Who will be out the door at seasons end?

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Just because a player is surplus at one club, doesn't mean they are not good enough to become a core player at another club. Still, I agree that we probably .

......

We need to look at other avenues, perhaps trading a mid-aged player (Green?) plus our second round pick might get us a top 15 pick? I mean the Lions were crazy enough to give us pick 14 for a lazy, injury-prone, mid-age player. Green is a lot more stable, more versatile and less of a tool.

When you have been an underperforming bottom dwelling club, very few if any players would be good enough to be core at a club that is seriously challenging.

I dont think there are many as you have pointed out. You are rather blinkered on TJ. He is very talented but lazy and a culture sore. He was never going to perform in MFC's culture. A perfect example of a good trade. He may well compliment the existing Lions midfield more than capably. Time will tell. I would not write it off yet.

I am not sure what Green and pick 35 would give a Club seeking to challenge that they would not be able to extract from their own list and a quality pick 12.

[beelzebub 22,243]

I am not sure what Green and pick 35 would give a Club seeking to challenge that they would not be able to extract from their own list and a quality pick 12.

well that my friends is exactly the point. we arent going to get anything without giving something. So it just depends on whats on offer and if its mutually beneficial.

Another good reason to 'trade up" once teh player reaches their peak and starts teh descent. Get max value..dont hang on til days end when they are worth zilch... to anyone !!

[Rogue 585]

I agree.

I want a club with the culture to be able to make a tough decision that improves the playing list and future chances of premiership success, not a club that doesn't trade Darren Kowal because he gets up at an B&F night and says that he loves the club and has no intention of going back to WA. He should've been sent packing.

What was on offer for Kowal? Was he out of contract?

[drdrake 3,045]

As stated in a previous post you only trade when there is something to gain. Trading players like Sylvia, Bruce and Green for late second or third round picks which lets face it thats all we would be offered will not benefit the club. Unfortuantely besides Mclean, Davey and Bate we don't have anyone on our list that will get us another first round pick. Rivers hasn't played for 2 years spell him for the rest of the season and get him right.

And for those who continue to bring up we need a ruck get over it rucks are over rated, one maybe two have influence on the game outside of the ruck contest. WE NEED KEY FORWARDS, Neitz gone, Robbo ?, Newton big ?, Miller hard worker but limited, Bate more Hard running than Key player, Dunn must be a limited as a forward for us to continue to play him in the midfield. Who are are Key forwards? Or even developing key forwards Newton and Zomer in the seconds at Sandy are the only two.

[Little Goffy 12,701]

Grr...

I suppose Brisbane should've traded Simon Black two years ago?

They did, though, trade Akermanis. For pick 30ish. We did our version of that trade (to Brisbane, even) and got pick 14 for Johnstone.

But I'm going to now commit to not getting involved in this further - if people could periodically refer to the following points, then I'll still be having my say -

1. We have a large stock of very young players, backed by a strong development coahcing unit and a head coach who firmly believes in focusing on development.

2. Trading even the better players rarely gets more than a late first round draft pick.

3. An extra draft pick here and there is overrated as a path to the top of the ladder.

4. Brad Green has five years left, which will be very good.

5. The rest of our veteran players are considerably older/injury prone and likely to retire (or already have) within the next 18 months.

6. Matthew Bate and Cale Morton will constitue one of the best HF lines in the game very soon. So who knows what else comes next?

[Hannabal 4]

What was on offer for Kowal? Was he out of contract?

We had an opportunity to recruit a 17 year old David Wirrpanda and have Kowal go home to WA. I'm not 100% sure of the mechanics, but some reading will remember. Wirrpanda was the hottest junior prospect at the time. Kowal decided he wanted to stay. He should have been forced to go.

[Hannabal 4]

Grr...

I suppose Brisbane should've traded Simon Black two years ago?

You're comparing one of the best inside mids and extractors I've ever seen, a B&F winner, a Downlow Medallist, a Norm Smith Medallist, and 3 time premiership player to Brad Green and Jared Rivers ?

I'll box up and send you a dose of perspective.

[The Emblem 1]

A lot of pessimism in this thread as to how long it will take to rebuild the list.

Personally I think 2 to 3 years to start playing finals...if your'e looking any further out and we may as well call a 2020 summit.

Throws up an idea, rookie draft Cate Blanchett and play her at CHF...she's managed to excel in every other role she's been given!

[Hannabal 4]

A lot of pessimism in this thread as to how long it will take to rebuild the list.

Personally I think 2 to 3 years to start playing finals...if your'e looking any further out and we may as well call a 2020 summit.

Throws up an idea, rookie draft Cate Blanchett and play her at CHF...she's managed to excel in every other role she's been given!

Three years from Finals is feasible, as is a couple of years in the Finals before realistically having a decent crack at winning. Ergo, a flag is likely to be a minimum of 5 years away, but more likely 6-7. Look at Port. They made a GF last year, but as has subsequently been proven weren't realistically close to winning. I don't want to get there and fall miserably short, we've done that before. Next time we're there we need to be a genuine chance.

I liken the 2008 draft for the Dees as the equivalent in importance to the 2001 draft for the Cats. In 2001 they had four picks in the top 25, plus picked up Gary Ablet under F/S. So, in reality, they had 5 of the best 25 picks in the draft that year. Ultimately they ended up with Bartel, Kelly, Ablett, Steve Johnson, and Gardiner. Any list is a work in progress and they already had Chapman and Ling on the list from 99 and of course they continued to tweek it along the way, but 01 goes down as pivotal to the flag they eventually won 6 years later.

And it's a similar likely time frame for us. We need to make the most of this draft and if possible trade our way into another first round draft pick. Looking at a realistic scenario and assuming that there are a couple of other teams that have a PP pick prior to the second round of the draft (two of Essendon, WC, or Freo) and also assuming that Richmond and Carlton won't qualify, we're likely to roughly have picks 1, 17, and 20. We may not be able to facilitate another pick around 10 or even 15, but we need to try. Our next likely window of opportunity to win what we all crave is 5-7 years away. This is probably the last uncompromised draft for some time and is considered to be of the highest quality up to at least pick 20. Hard decisions need to be made.

Rivers isn't likely to be in our next premiership team, but how good could he be at Sydney, or Brisbane, or even Collingwood. Those sides would genuinely think that they're not far away and all of them could do with a General like Rivers in the backline. I don't think that it's unrealistic to think that they'd look long and hard at Rivers, and they'll have picks somewhere in the 10-15 range.

This club hasn't made enough hard decisions in the past. We have to make things happen starting at the draft table this year. I'm sick of more of the same.

[jacey 333]

Personally I think 2 to 3 years to start playing finals...if your'e looking any further out and we may as well call a 2020 summit.

Two years is a long time in footy and its surprising (maybe its not) that people don't think we'll be in the mix for the top 8 in 2010.

That'll be 4 years that we've spent on the bottom rebuilding and then you still can't see the light. How bloody depressing and 'bottle half empty' lives you live.

Nathan Jones not worth a top 20 pick. You guys must be yanking my chain. Easily worth 10-15.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Two years is a long time in footy and its surprising (maybe its not) that people don't think we'll be in the mix for the top 8 in 2010.

That'll be 4 years that we've spent on the bottom rebuilding and then you still can't see the light. How bloody depressing and 'bottle half empty' lives you live.

Nathan Jones not worth a top 20 pick. You guys must be yanking my chain. Easily worth 10-15.

Its not long enough for MFC to be truly competitive with the big guys.

If by chance we do make the 8 in 2010, I doubt we would seriously challenge just at that point. I dont think we will be bottom over a 4 year period. I would expect us to be bottom half in 2009 and 2010 but with the momentum of a maturing playing group.

I actually think there is alot of potential in the youth in the side but it will all be for nought unless we supplement the list with some real talent. Given the concessions to new interstate clubs it might be our last good shot at it for some years.

So which clubs will want a fit determined player with questionable decision making, not fast and poor foot disposal for their first round pick? Hmmm.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Its not long enough for MFC to be truly competitive with the big guys.

If by chance we do make the 8 in 2010, I doubt we would seriously challenge just at that point. I dont think we will be bottom over a 4 year period. I would expect us to be bottom half in 2009 and 2010 but with the momentum of a maturing playing group.

I actually think there is alot of potential in the youth in the side but it will all be for nought unless we supplement the list with some real talent. Given the concessions to new interstate clubs it might be our last good shot at it for some years.

So which clubs will want a fit determined player with questionable decision making, not fast and poor foot disposal for their first round pick? Hmmm.

ffs he is 20yo in his second season. Plenty would want him but he is not going anywhere. He gets the hard footy. His foot skills are good when not under pressure which is most of the time. see the contested possessions bit. he is developing into a goalkicking midfielder.

He is coming along beautifully.

what club would want a strongly built,determined, clearance winner with good disposal, leadership ability, fit, goal kicking midfielder that has just turnrd 20.

I know. The MFC. he is going nowhere

[Hannabal 4]

Two years is a long time in footy and its surprising (maybe its not) that people don't think we'll be in the mix for the top 8 in 2010.

Firstly, I very much doubt that we'll be playing Finals in 2010 and secondly, I couldn't give a fat rat's clacker whether we are or not. Playing Finals footy no longer gives me my jollies unless it culminates in a flag. We played finals for 6 years out of 10 under Daniher - big deal.

When we next enter the Finals foray I want it to be as a genuine apprenticeship for a flag and not more fool's gold.

[rpfc 27,564]

That'll be 4 years that we've spent on the bottom rebuilding and then you still can't see the light. How bloody depressing and 'bottle half empty' lives you live.

Depressing?

I can see the reality of the situation and it tells me that Bruce and Green will not be football players when we are pushing for a flag in 5 years time.

They may be on a wing or a pocket as we finish 6th in three years time but who cares about that?

Finals are great fun, but you have to finish top 4 to have any chance - that means 16 wins. We will not be a 16 win team for 5 years. We have won 6 of our last 33 and it is going to take a while to get to 16 out of 22 in one year.

With that in mind, let us prepare for that time in the best way we can by looking at our list and asking ourselves who will be around playing good footy at that stage. Bruce, Green won't be. Rivers, with his body and the way he plays, might not be either.

It kills me to say it.

But, again, I don't care about careers, I care about winning a flag.

[titan_uranus 22,549]

Depressing?

I can see the reality of the situation and it tells me that Bruce and Green will not be football players when we are pushing for a flag in 5 years time.

They may be on a wing or a pocket as we finish 6th in three years time but who cares about that?

Finals are great fun, but you have to finish top 4 to have any chance - that means 16 wins. We will not be a 16 win team for 5 years. We have won 6 of our last 33 and it is going to take a while to get to 16 out of 22 in one year.

With that in mind, let us prepare for that time in the best way we can by looking at our list and asking ourselves who will be around playing good footy at that stage. Bruce, Green won't be. Rivers, with his body and the way he plays, might not be either.

It kills me to say it.

But, again, I don't care about careers, I care about winning a flag.

Yes, I agree, Bruce and Green (and White, and Whelan, and McDonald) are most likely not to be playing great footy when we're next ready to contest for the flag. However, with Neitz gone, Robbo out for 12 months, Yze and Holland going, culling all those players makes our list devoid of any experience or leadership. To win 16 games in a year doesn't just rely on that year's performances. There's the build-up to a premiership: the years before winning a flag are just as important. We can't just expect to draft a bunch of quality youth over the next couple of years, scrap the older players, and then be a genuine premiership contender. Players like Bruce and Green need to hang around if only to guide the younger players over the next 3 years.

[rpfc 27,564]

Yes, I agree, Bruce and Green (and White, and Whelan, and McDonald) are most likely not to be playing great footy when we're next ready to contest for the flag. However, with Neitz gone, Robbo out for 12 months, Yze and Holland going, culling all those players makes our list devoid of any experience or leadership. To win 16 games in a year doesn't just rely on that year's performances. There's the build-up to a premiership: the years before winning a flag are just as important. We can't just expect to draft a bunch of quality youth over the next couple of years, scrap the older players, and then be a genuine premiership contender. Players like Bruce and Green need to hang around if only to guide the younger players over the next 3 years.

Guide the younger players?!

They have been an integral part of a leadership group that has been entrencehed in the top 4 deep into 2004, 2005, and 2006 and floundered to zero top 4 finishes and only one final win. BUT we should retain them because of their guidance and leadership?

Give me a break, if they are still here next year it is because we couldn't get a suitable deal done and nothing else.

[Damo 3,004]

So much for the academics.

I want to keep Bruce Green Jones and Rivers.

Im jack of giving up proven players for a punt. We are not that good at it.

I want the club to look hard at winning 8 or more games next year.

Im happy to go all out and try towin each game this year by playing players whose goal is to try their damnedest.

Farck off those who wont go hard and run hard to create options.(Bruce and Green do this)

The gossamer hope of increasing the year end pick is not the jackpot it is made up to be.

For every Buddy there is a dud.

I want them to be searching the horizon to make sure we are in business in five years time.

I dont believe Stynes will be any better than PG without a big injection of luck or hidden treasure.

Thats the object of my desire, even though I sound like I accept little reward. It is a pragmatic approach.

You have to be in it to win it and I will refuse to go if I think handbrake harry is pulling the rein.

[Little Goffy 12,701]

You're comparing one of the best inside mids and extractors I've ever seen, a B&F winner, a Downlow Medallist, a Norm Smith Medallist, and 3 time premiership player to Brad Green and Jared Rivers ?

I'll box up and send you a dose of perspective.

My point wasn't to suggest that Green or Rivers are as good or as valuable as Simon Black (who I acknowledge

as a true great of the game), but rather to emphasise that trading players in their late twenties isn't necessarily a path to glory. I used Black as the example specifically because it would be so foolish to ditch him (but think of the draft picks! think of the draft picks!)

Our problem is that our veterans have crumbled in our hands. Neitz, Robertson, Yze, Holland and even White and McDonald are all either injured, fading or just not quite great. We actually have a SHORTAGE of experienced quality players, which is a problem whether you're trying to finish one spot ahead of the spoon or one spot ahead of the other grand finalist.

You don't trade away what you have a shortage of (quality experienced players) to get something you have lots of (draft picks, including probably three top-20 picks as it is).

[Yze_Magic 3]

We will make the Finals in 2009.

My guarantee.

[Rogue 585]

My point wasn't to suggest that Green or Rivers are as good or as valuable as Simon Black (who I acknowledge

as a true great of the game), but rather to emphasise that trading players in their late twenties isn't necessarily a path to glory. I used Black as the example specifically because it would be so foolish to ditch him (but think of the draft picks! think of the draft picks!)

Trading experienced players has to seen in the context of where your Club is at.

If we're unlikely to challenge for a flag in the next x years, and Mr. Experienced Player will only play on for x years, it's a very different proposition to trading an experienced player for draft picks when you think you're a contender.

[beelzebub 22,243]

There are some stark and jolting realities that many just dont seem to want to address:

We are likely to finish last or next to ( dare I say it..hopefully last as it gives US the choices )

This is the last 'equal 'draft for some time.

Some of our players may be press ganged in the future anyway

We ARE not in any presnt state of likely to be in order to combat finals with any real chance for a few years.. ; 3-4 is pretty optimistic

Quite frankly any talk of such in the next 2 years only shows the proclaimer to hav enot been watching footy of late.

We DONT have a great deal of 1st class talent.

WE ARE IN REBUILDING !!

In business you need to take regular stock of your assetts. Need to evaluate them and arrange them to best effect. You also need to be conversant with the current market and trends ( or you'll get dacked !! )

What is our time frame. Lets say reality suggests we could be fair dinmkum aspirers in say 5 years.. ( for to the ultra optimists ) Now put eh so called "experienced talent " into that equation. Green, Bruce, White and Robbo are well old and out the door most likely. Therefore goinfg forward they are of littel help then !! But now..they have value.. value in trade. Persoanlly Id have happily let Robo go to the dogs when we could have done so..again MFC just dont quite get it. Still water under bridge..and now stagnant. ( wel done MFC )

Even Riv will be 29-30 ish in 4-5 .. debatable value . Do we at last learn teh errors of our past ? Strike while iron is hot. We CAN play without him..we've had to.

Players like Sylvia may attract peripheral interest at present.. probably none in 2-3 ( on current form )

Miller would be nearing career end by time we hit a GF.. better value to redeem his currency now in trade ( if poss)

Hannabal and others are on to this. The time is NOW for a clean out ( of massive proportions if possible ) We wont be able to turnover al lthat we'd like to, butwe have to attempt to augment our fiuture stocks with trades this year. There is no real next year..all the cherries wil have gone next year.

And we are not aloneas other clubs wil realise this dilemma also. This unfortuantely may drive down any value of the "tradables" But just like in business, sometimes you have to have a fire sale to cash up to go buy new to be in the game tomorrow. Otherwise you just have a lot of stuff, on shelves, that no one wants.

Its harsh isnt it. So many take this or that player to heart, become lik efamily in some minds.

They're players, they're paid. They ought to perform. When your car starts visitng teh garage a bit to ooften, when its costin gyou too much at teh pump, when it doesnt move quick enough any more at teh lights and when its worn out.. you change it dont you. A personal car you tend to hanfg on too longer. In business you f*** it off quick smart because its COSTING you money.

Peopel ..you need to view players in exactly the same light..if they arent earning, they are costing. If tehy are transistioning from teh former to teh latter.. trrade them while you can.

Now having said all that..pleae review our options folks regarding messrs, Green, Bruce, Rivers, Sylvia, Miller etc

You know the old question...where do you see yourself in 5 years time.. apply that to the club..and if some players aren't of much use then... ask..what is their real worth now ?

But be honest about it..

[Whispering_Jack 28,011]

Who will be out the door at seasons end?

Nick Sautner

[Hannabal 4]

I want to keep Bruce Green Jones and Rivers.

Im jack of giving up proven players for a punt. We are not that good at it.

I want the club to look hard at winning 8 or more games next year.

I'm only advocating trading Rivers, as Jones is important to our future and Bruce or Green won't yield a top 20 draft pick. As others have mentioned, you can't trade all your experience.

We haven't been in our current predicament for over a decade. The previous times that we've traded out players for early teen picks have been through either them wanting to change clubs, go home interstate, or for salary cap reasons. And during each trade period we've been topping up the list believing that we weren't far from a flag - if we got a couple of things right. Things are different this time around. We are in total rebuild mode. And yes, the youth need to have some experience around them, but we won't get another oppotunity for years to make the most of our current position at the draft table. I'd try to maximise it.

As for you saying that you "want the club to look hard at winning 8 or more games next year" ? What do you think they were trying to do this year ? Become a laughing stock for the fun of it ?

Bailey now knows where the list is at, even if many supporters don't seem to. I expect him to make some challenging decisions in October.

[Hannabal 4]

My point wasn't to suggest that Green or Rivers are as good or as valuable as Simon Black (who I acknowledge

as a true great of the game), but rather to emphasise that trading players in their late twenties isn't necessarily a path to glory.

Last time I looked Rivers was 23 - 24 in October. The problem is he'll be a slow tall back of about 30 when we're next a realistic flag chance. And MacNamara, or someone else may be be keeping him down at Casey. The good news is that at 23, and still a good footballer, he may get us another first round pick. We need one.

[beelzebub 22,243]

Bailey now knows where the list is at, even if many supporters don't seem to. I expect him to make some challenging decisions in October.

There isnt really a lot to gewt excited abou t this year, other than watching a few of teh kids come on but I do look forward to teh end of season circus with great interest ( more than usual ) this year. Dont be fooled folks, this is a very much a make or break scenario. Be brutal and get it right ( or near to ) and we go forward.. Muck it up of let opportunites slip..and its murky water for a long long while.