Glaring weakness in defence

[Lord Travis 10,163]

Time to pull the Lever 

Seriously though he is the ideal target for us. He can play key defender or roam a zone and become the general. He currently doesn't need to play as a pure key defender most weeks as Adelaide have good tall options. This has allowed them to use Lever as a backline general roaming the zone and he has excelled in a big way due to his high football IQ and clean hands. Our backs currently get crucified by opposition tall forwards, statistically we are worst in the league against them. Get Lever in there to steady the ship and we aren't golden. If we'd had him on our list this year we'd currently be sitting in the top 4 IMO.

Also on Mitch McGovern, he will 99% go home to WA and has a big contracts offer already from the Dockers (where his dad played). Eagles will likely also have a crack at him to see if they can lure him to play with his brother. At 191cms I don't think he solves a problem for us anyway as a tall option. If his leap is taken away from him he doesn't not have other weapons.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Same old story on Demonland. Whining about our KP defenders gets going even though our most senior one is currently playing the whole game up forward. We get less than 80 points kicked on us and people start wasting to throw out the baby with the bathwater. And the oddest thing is OMac has put together probably his best month of the season.

We're still a year away. Everyone needs to calm down. They're a work in progress.

That said, Lever would be nice. Not because we have a massive pressing need, but because he's going to be one of the best in the league his whole career.

I have a feeling he's been signed sealed and delivered for a while now. So everyone will be happy.

[binman 38,011]

3 hours ago, Chris said:

 

Using the number of times a team scores per 50 entry is also useless unless you add the number of entries into 50. In reality the back 6 press up to around our half forward line, if they are working well with the mids and putting the pressure on the number of inside 50 for the opposition drop, but the may score easily if they actually get there. 

Exactly. Which is precisely what was happening early in the season. Teams were knocking up scoring easy goals (often running it all rhe way to tbe goal line) against us because our press and zone were too aggressive and they were getting over it too easily. This goes a long way in explaining both stats in tbe op.

 Goody responded and we now get fewer of them, though it still occurs eg against the crows and a couple of times in the last match. 

Edited August 1, 2017 by binman

[beelzebub 22,225]

Bin. Serious question. ( Well two )

Do you think our backline needs shoring up ?

If so...how? I.e.   likely types

Cheers

[binman 38,011]

42 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Bin. Serious question. ( Well two )

Do you think our backline needs shoring up ?

If so...how? I.e.   likely types

Cheers

A serious question?

Probably lost in my my long posts on this thread but i have said in this thread and others that Lever would be a brilliant pick up. He would be a great addition to our side, indeed a great addition to any side. Blind Freddy can see he is a gun. Lever would improve our backline, for sure.

But do i think our back line needs shoring up? No. I reckon all in all we have a pretty good back six at present. Can they improve - yes of course. Probably only Jetta and Hibberd are playing close to their optimum. What do all the others have in common? They are young players with less than 55 games under the belt and all have huge scope for improvement. With another pre season and another 6 months of perfecting their synergy and understanding of Goody's zone they will be a formidable unit.

The back six are doing their job pretty well. At the risk of contradicting myself Adelaide, who have a pretty handy defensive unit, has, despite winning 3.5 more games , conceded only 108 less points than us.

The back six have done well enoughl that the coaching staff have not felt the need to move Tmac back there despite the fact they have had that option, for example by playing Pederson up forward rather than at Casey.

As has been mentioned by a number of people on this thread our ability to defend would be greatly improved by the whole team applying the level of pressure Goody demands - week in week out. Every bloody game. If anything our mid field needs shoring up with a player or two who can apply pressure every single game and can regularly hit a target. 

[GoD's67 111]

9 hours ago, binman said:

A serious question?

Probably lost in my my long posts on this thread but i have said in this thread and others that Lever would be a brilliant pick up. He would be a great addition to our side, indeed a great addition to any side. Blind Freddy can see he is a gun. Lever would improve our backline, for sure.

But do i think our back line needs shoring up? No. I reckon all in all we have a pretty good back six at present. Can they improve - yes of course. Probably only Jetta and Hibberd are playing close to their optimum. What do all the others have in common? They are young players with less than 55 games under the belt and all have huge scope for improvement. With another pre season and another 6 months of perfecting their synergy and understanding of Goody's zone they will be a formidable unit.

The back six are doing their job pretty well. At the risk of contradicting myself Adelaide, who have a pretty handy defensive unit, has, despite winning 3.5 more games , conceded only 108 less points than us.

The back six have done well enoughl that the coaching staff have not felt the need to move Tmac back there despite the fact they have had that option, for example by playing Pederson up forward rather than at Casey.

As has been mentioned by a number of people on this thread our ability to defend would be greatly improved by the whole team applying the level of pressure Goody demands - week in week out. Every bloody game. If anything our mid field needs shoring up with a player or two who can apply pressure every single game and can regularly hit a target. 

Improving our disposal efficiency will have a major impact on helping improve our defence. How many times are we streaming forward through the centre, players lined up and we turn it over, and the ball heads like a bullet towards opponents goals. 

This is one of the key reasons Jack Watts is very important for the Demons. When he is in form, he uses the ball to our advantage and helps us hit the scoreboard. He would be even better if he was harder at the contest, but when he is playing well so do we!

[jnrmac 18,953]

6 hours ago, GoD's67 said:

Improving our disposal efficiency will have a major impact on helping improve our defence. How many times are we streaming forward through the centre, players lined up and we turn it over, and the ball heads like a bullet towards opponents goals. 

 

Undoubtedly but you do understand that Champion Data's tracking credits a player with a one-on-one win only after a kick that gives both the target player and the defender a reasonable chance to win the contest.

The OP focuses on one on one contests and scores per i50 entry. We are last in the AFL at both. So if a ball comes in from a t/over to a player on his own that is not counted as a one on one.

 

[Red and Blue realist 2,026]

33 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Undoubtedly but you do understand that Champion Data's tracking credits a player with a one-on-one win only after a kick that gives both the target player and the defender a reasonable chance to win the contest.

The OP focuses on one on one contests and scores per i50 entry. We are last in the AFL at both. So if a ball comes in from a t/over to a player on his own that is not counted as a one on one.

 

I assume you've got access to Champion Data stats that aren't readily found? I imagine that unfortunately one of our biggest culprits in losing one-on-one's would be Nev Jetta. The argument would be that yes Ben Brown should out mark him because he's 30cm taller,  but that's too simplistic, why is Jetta trying to man up on someone way taller (it happens a fair bit) and the answer would be what GD67 was talking about.

Unless you've got stats to say who our back 6 have lost their one-on-one's too (direct opponent or covering player etc.) then the OP having a shot at OMac and Frost may have little basis. Like others have done on here I think it's better to prevent the wound rather than focus on stopping the bleeding. 

[binman 38,011]

49 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Undoubtedly but you do understand that Champion Data's tracking credits a player with a one-on-one win only after a kick that gives both the target player and the defender a reasonable chance to win the contest.

The OP focuses on one on one contests and scores per i50 entry. We are last in the AFL at both. So if a ball comes in from a t/over to a player on his own that is not counted as a one on one.

 

So when jetta lost his two marking contests with Brown (a result of targeted un-pressured  kicks inside 50) he would have been recorded as losing those one on one contests given nominally both players had a chance of marking it? Do you blame jetta for failing to spoil those marks? Unlikely. There have been so many examples of similar mismatches all season  - and they will continue to be an issue given our zone strategy - which goes  a long way to explaining the poor one on one stat. 

And in addition to these frequent mismatches all the easy out the back goals to a player on his own we have given up this year (which are often the result of poor turnovers or poor pressure) would be a big factor in our poor ranking for giving up goals when the opposition go inside 50.

At the least surely you acknowledge there are different ways to interpret and analysis the cause of particular statistics jnr. Perhaps your analysis that those two stats are the result of the defensive weakness is correct but obviously i disagree. Respectfully i think the club also disagrees or else surely they would have responded by changing the lineup. 

But lets agree to disagree and move on. 

 

Edited August 2, 2017 by binman

[binman 38,011]

11 minutes ago, Red and Blue realist said:

I assume you've got access to Champion Data stats that aren't readily found? I imagine that unfortunately one of our biggest culprits in losing one-on-one's would be Nev Jetta. The argument would be that yes Ben Brown should out mark him because he's 30cm taller,  but that's too simplistic, why is Jetta trying to man up on someone way taller (it happens a fair bit) and the answer would be what GD67 was talking about.

Unless you've got stats to say who our back 6 have lost their one-on-one's too (direct opponent or covering player etc.) then the OP having a shot at OMac and Frost may have little basis. Like others have done on here I think it's better to prevent the wound rather than focus on stopping the bleeding. 

Snap

[jnrmac 18,953]

1 minute ago, binman said:

So when jetta lost his two marking contests with Brown (a result of targeted un-pressured  kicks inside 50) he would have been recorded as losing those one on one contests given nominally both players had a chance of marking it? Do you blame jetta for failing to spoil those marks? Unlikely. There have been so many examples of similar mismatches all season  - and they will continue to be an issue given our zone strategy - which goes  a long way to explaining the poor one on one stat. 

And in addition to these frequent mismatches all the easy out the back goals to a player on his own we have given up this year (which are often the result of poor turnovers or poor pressure) would be a big factor in our poor ranking for giving up goals when the opposition go inside 50.

At the least surely you acknowledge there are different ways to interpret and analysis the cause of particular statistics jnr. Perhaps your analysis that those two stats are the result of the defensive weakness but obviously i disagree. Respectfully i think the club also disagrees or else surely they would have responded by changing the lineup. 

But lets agree to disagree and move on. 

 

Jetta actually has a good record of spoils against taller opponents. He made two spoils against Casboult that I recall were critical. Jetta is not expected to win those type of contests. The fact he does more often than not makes him a stellar defender in my book.

So I don't blame Jetta in the same way I would blame Frost and Omac who are the tall defenders and if they lost the contest. They should win the contest more often than not. They don't. Our tall defenders aren't very good at it. You seem to disagree with facts.

[binman 38,011]

9 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Jetta actually has a good record of spoils against taller opponents. He made two spoils against Casboult that I recall were critical. Jetta is not expected to win those type of contests. The fact he does more often than not makes him a stellar defender in my book.

So I don't blame Jetta in the same way I would blame Frost and Omac who are the tall defenders and if they lost the contest. They should win the contest more often than not. They don't. Our tall defenders aren't very good at it. You seem to disagree with facts.

Jetta might have a good record for spoiling against taller opponents. He's fantastic. i love him. As you say he is steallr defender.

But the fact remains that he is often pitted against taller opponents. And can't win all those contests. And he is not the only one. Hibberd and to a lesser extent hunt and salem often find themselves in  one on ones against much taller opponents. It is a function of the zone and an exploitable weakness of that strategy, particularly when up field pressure is poor. Surely you have to acknowledge that at the very least this issue contributes to our poor one on one stat?

Sorry Jnr you have not provided any compelling facts that support your argument. I thought i made that clear. 

Perhaps you can find some other stats that prove our tall defenders aren't very good at one on one contests. Like their individual statistics. 

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

44 minutes ago, binman said:

 Perhaps you can find some other stats that prove our tall defenders aren't very good at one on one contests. Like their individual statistics. 

Watching them in action is probably the best evidence.

[binman 38,011]

1 hour ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Watching them in action is probably the best evidence.

100% agree

[doug williams 49]

Seems to me the biggest problem with our back line is our forward line.

Points against are relatively low (compared with Adelaide, say) but we are just not kicking enough scores as the season progresses.

Hogan's unable to get on the paddock, T. Mac has been kicking a few and so has Jeffy but we seriously lack firepower up forward.

The back line are doing their job, no doubt in my mind.

[pinkshark 935]

On 30/07/2017 at 0:14 PM, jnrmac said:

I have said all year our defence leaks goals. Yet again we got taken to the cleaners.

The elephant in the room are our key tall backs. Hibberd has had a great year. Jetta is outstanding, Hunt has done well but OMac and Frost while doing some good things have been toweled up by bigger bodied tall fwds like Brown, Roughhead, Walker, Daniher, Reiwoldt, Casboult, Hawkins etc

We desperately need a Lever.

Facts are:

1. teams score 53% of the time they enter our fwd 50 - last in the AFL

2. We lose 35% of defensive one on ones - last in the AFL

You cannot win finals with a defence like that. In fact you will struggle to make finals.

OMac is simply a liability. May become a footballer one day but gets outbodied regularly, has no urgency or intensity and frankly plays a lot of dumb football. He flies to spoil and either misses the ball or or hits it straight into a dangerous spot like the corridor. Plenty on here bang on about what a massive improvement he has made this year but I maintain if we had a decent tall back he wouldn't be playing.  

Frost has some great attributes but makes a lot of errors spoiling. leaving his man, fumbling and taking on more than he can chew.

We cannot take a contested mark to save ourselves. We rank 17th in contested marks. Clearly we have had to move TMac to the fwd line and so rob our defence but the evidence is pretty clear that he makes a good forward and so won't be returning any time soon.

Until we fix our defence we aren't going anywhere. Throw the kitchen sink at Lever.

Great work Junior.  Spot on.  

[jnrmac 18,953]

Any tragics out there still trying to defend our defenders?

Coll took 7 marks in their fwd 50 in the first quarter. Cox and Grundy smashed us.

[dimmy 1,114]

Yes blame the defenders, when it is their opponents yesterday who were getting the ball lace out. Goody preraches a full team defensive structure, so the blame should be shared as to why Collingwood were so free in the first Q especially.

On 8/1/2017 at 8:12 PM, binman said:

"Probably lost in my my long posts on this thread but i have said in this thread and others that Lever would be a brilliant pick up. He would be a great addition to our side, indeed a great addition to any side. Blind Freddy can see he is a gun. Lever would improve our backline, for sure.

But do i think our back line needs shoring up? No. I reckon all in all we have a pretty good back six at present. Can they improve - yes of course. Probably only Jetta and Hibberd are playing close to their optimum. What do all the others have in common? They are young players with less than 55 games under the belt and all have huge scope for improvement. With another pre season and another 6 months of perfecting their synergy and understanding of Goody's zone they will be a formidable unit.

The back six are doing their job pretty well. At the risk of contradicting myself Adelaide, who have a pretty handy defensive unit, has, despite winning 3.5 more games , conceded only 108 less points than us.

The back six have done well enoughl that the coaching staff have not felt the need to move Tmac back there despite the fact they have had that option, for example by playing Pederson up forward rather than at Casey.

As has been mentioned by a number of people on this thread our ability to defend would be greatly improved by the whole team applying the level of pressure Goody demands - week in week out. Every bloody game. If anything our mid field needs shoring up with a player or two who can apply pressure every single game and can regularly hit a target. "

We have young defenders who show a lot of promise and until yesterday peop0le were praising them however after 1 loss we are throwing them to the crocodiles..

TMac or any other defender make a mistake and it directly costs us. A poor delivery or a hooray punt into our forward line does not count as a goal against us ???? It still causes the same result in modern football. We could get Lever, Talia, McGovern, Rance, Harry Taylor etc, but that would not solve our problems.

We need a Scully, Kelly, Zorko, Sloane or Ross  to improve our delivery.

Get Jack Watts Trac and Christian Salem on the running track now and make them the outside mids we desperately need.  If we had one ofo those blokes around the stoppages, we would slaughter the AFL.

[Moonshadow 16,166]

Not a key back, but Conner McKenna fro Ess is out of contract. Fast, kicks either foot. Could add to Hunt and Hibberd down back, especially with Vince and Lewis near the end. Could also be an outside runner.

Thoughts?

[beelzebub 22,225]

The defence isnt tight. On good days the mids keep the ball going the right way and all is well. 

On days when we play teams that like to play the lines our style and capability of defence has some hope of corralling or just knocking over the line. For all the fawning over a wonderful zone tactic it is in reality just old school defending.

Where we get split open and made to look as inept as the structures would provide is where oppositions have the temerity, the unmitigated gall to play the corridor.

To this observer zones CAN NOT work then as there is nothing per se to protect. It becomes about the man and we don't man up. This IS why when other teams twig they can kick to a presenting fwd..or tall timber because they won't/can't be owned by our defence. Its not designed to.

This is why the Levers of this game becone crucial. Theyre spoilers. They can mark when able and are good thinkers/ decision makers.

Hibberd.. gem. Hard to fault. Cant do everything ( but tries )

Jetta. A rock. Almost unbeatable but gets pantsed when he has to take on someone  with 300mm on him. ( But tries valiantly )

Hunt. Hot and cold rebounding/attack . When ON...wow...when not...where is he. He's young and will get better abd wiser. Fun times ahead.

TMac...not a back.. as others rightly suggest DN ver 2.018 onwards

Oscar Oscar Oscar. Dont think...do. Thinking is NOT your forte. Has got better. Doing some things well. Will do better with more experienced players beside him.

Frosty. Exciting, but incons. Raw with potential. Floats between hero and nqr.  Is really either depth or trade currency.

Milkshake...see Tommy. Go forward. Might he be outside mid potential.

Salem. Just needs to be FIT and WELL reallt. Be wonderful for him and us

Vince...please leave it to the backs...just go annoy someone

Lewis....am happy for him to drift through the back etc organising others where  needed and taking those clutch moment marks.

I think the defence needs rethinking. Current plan nqr !!

[Redleg 37,571]

4 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

Not a key back, but Conner McKenna fro Ess is out of contract. Fast, kicks either foot. Could add to Hunt and Hibberd down back, especially with Vince and Lewis near the end. Could also be an outside runner.

Thoughts?

Bombers will re sign him.

[old dee 22,848]

I think our defence is ok. IMO our forward line is our weak link. We desperately need a KPF to help out Hogan. Yes I know we have one but he is not AFL quality. 

[deelete my account 1,194]

1 hour ago, old dee said:

I think our defence is ok. IMO our forward line is our weak link. We desperately need a KPF to help out Hogan. Yes I know we have one but he is not AFL quality. 

I said this a year ago in trade week, but we should have picked up James Stewart last year instead of Essendon. They gave pick 77 to GWS and got a 1.97cm 23 year old forward who's in their best 22 heading into a finals campaign, ffs.

Edited August 31, 2017 by Wrecked Owl Dees Function

[Members' Wing 1,106]

50 minutes ago, Wrecked Owl Dees Function said:

I said this a year ago in trade week, but we should have picked up James Stewart last year instead of Essendon. They gave pick 77 to GWS and got a 1.97cm 23 year old forward who's in their best 22 heading into a finals campaign, ffs.

Very limited player. Wouldn't get in the side before Pedersen or Weideman. Would hardly have made the difference between finals or not.

[beelzebub 22,225]

3 hours ago, old dee said:

I think our defence is ok. IMO our forward line is our weak link. We desperately need a KPF to help out Hogan. Yes I know we have one but he is not AFL quality. 

funny how we ( any number of people)  see things differently

Im the reverse here.  I think fundamentally the essential players are actually here already for a decent forward line.  Hogan, Jeffy ( though needs a rocket at times )  Milkshake , Hannan , Pedo McDonald T.  A few lads like Weed and Johnstone to come in at some point when more capable.  Harmes  might improve  I see the HOW we play forward ans more the thing to be bettered. We dont do thi swell..it seems rather adhock. if there IS  style and plans here it's escaping this viewer.

I see two areas of concern though with defence. We have no capacity to stem king tides when opposition decide to run the gauntlet of the corridor. Zones work to areas and fail down the guts  ( imho ) . Also the 'rearguard press is fallible  if your opponent has the capacity to back themselves going "over the top" Here you need the abilty to quickly shut down players as well as deny passage and the ball. Zoning is akin to spectator football in this respect and if caught out wrong footed by the ball flying over your head its too little too late afterwards.

Here , thats us, Dees, need better tools of defence. We need the ability to teach players to identify the nature of incursion and automatically adapt. If a fwd needs manning up it needs to be done pronto.Currently we are very good at watching the other team mark a ball!!

Do we have the manpower on board to do this right at the  moment..Not how player X or Y might be in 25 games time...but now. No ..by my calcs we are 2 short of the ideal. We need a Lever type...we also need a REAL FB.  Now this might surprise some but I reckon with another 5-7 kg  and a change in role good ol Oscar could do this. It would in some fashion be a simpler if arduous role. Leave it to the Hibberds and Levers to cut off supply , intercept and set up Hunt for the reversed assault . If not Oscar..then 'someone' imported.

Happy to have differing thoughts here Old

oh..addendum. Some will straight away scream  Watts !!  I actually see him as neither a fwd or a back..Id like to see him develop as some sort of winger/come outside mid. A link man  who CAN go fwd..who is excellent at disposal , is a better mark when not so quite congested in traffic and is the most reliable of any demon with a ball in front of the sticks anywhere up to 55m out. But he doesnt need to be a FWD to do this..just my opinion

Edited August 31, 2017 by beelzebub