His ceiling is a potent blend of Melksham and Neal-Bullen.

Long way off it right now but so were Melksham and Neal-Bullen in their early years.

Preseasons, confidence, development - the part that keeps me optimistic about Tholstrup is that the factors which could dramatically improve his output are realistically improvable.

53 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

His ceiling is a potent blend of Melksham and Neal-Bullen.

Long way off it right now but so were Melksham and Neal-Bullen in their early years.

Preseasons, confidence, development - the part that keeps me optimistic about Tholstrup is that the factors which could dramatically improve his output are realistically improvable.

agreed. i think there is enough there but he will need to be committed to make it permanently. i think he could become a 'clever' player, with some vitamin C to add.

1 hour ago, poita said:

Tholstrup reminds me of Luke Tapscott. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a guy who has developed earlier than his peers and until now hasn't had to put the work in to make the grade.

Now he is coming up against guys who are bigger, stronger and more experienced and he doesn't yet have the skill set, the work rate or the mental toughness to cope.

It's pretty clear he isn't good enough to be an AFL standard midfielder. He doesn't find enough of the ball, he isn't fit enough and his decision making hasn't been up to scratch to date.

So where does he fit? He currently provides very little as a half forward. Simply he doesn't get to the right positions often enough. Even from a low base in 2024, he is down on disposals, marks, goals and tackles in 2025.

With Salem on the way out and McVee uncontracted, I'd be giving him a run in defence for the rest of the season. Let his opponent take him to the football and see if he can win or halve some contests. Give him a few weeks at Casey to learn the role, then the rest of the season in the senior side if his form warrants it.

As an aside, it was a puzzling decision to trade up to take him at pick 13 and even more bizarre to contract him until 2028. The club has shown a lot of faith in him and he needs a big pre season to start delivering on his end of the bargain.

Not against the half back role idea at all.

We need to pump games into him.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 for pick 11 and took him. That's a big commitment. I dare say we were trying to package up 6+11 for pick 1 (Harley Reid) and it didn't work out, but nonetheless when you draft a player at pick 11 you expect a star or a good 200+ gamer who's a core member of your team long term.

Kolt needs time to build his body. He's 1.5 seasons in and hasn't had a proper pre-season yet due to injuries. He's playing in a woeful forward line. That said, he's shown little ability to find the ball and use it well either. He's struggled for form at both VFL and AFL level.

It's one of those cases where we need get his body right and pump games into him due to his draft position, then you hope it clicks. He was drafted as a powerful forward-mid. Those sorts of players are game changers, and we've been chasing one for a while (tried trading up for Bailey Humphry and Harley Reid). We need him to become that player. If he doesn't make it as a forward-mid, then backup plan is develop him in the back pocket as a lock down defender and rebounder in a McVee/Hibberd type role.

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

His ceiling is a potent blend of Melksham and Neal-Bullen.

Long way off it right now but so were Melksham and Neal-Bullen in their early years.

Preseasons, confidence, development - the part that keeps me optimistic about Tholstrup is that the factors which could dramatically improve his output are realistically improvable.

i like the idea of ceilings and floors, if you use the examples and following that have been outlined in this thread we're looking at...from an mfc perspective:

• ceiling: jake melksham

• floor: luke tapscott

from another club and players with a similar body shape and attitude perspective, i'd say gc17 might have a couple of decent comparisons...

• ceiling: bailey humphrey

• floor: braydon fiorini

20 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

We need to pump games into him.

We traded picks 14, 27 and 35 for pick 11 and took him. That's a big commitment. I dare say we were trying to package up 6+11 for pick 1 (Harley Reid) and it didn't work out, but nonetheless when you draft a player at pick 11 you expect a star or a good 200+ gamer who's a core member of your team long term.

Kolt needs time to build his body. He's 1.5 seasons in and hasn't had a proper pre-season yet due to injuries. He's playing in a woeful forward line. That said, he's shown little ability to find the ball and use it well either. He's struggled for form at both VFL and AFL level.

It's one of those cases where we need get his body right and pump games into him due to his draft position, then you hope it clicks. He was drafted as a powerful forward-mid. Those sorts of players are game changers, and we've been chasing one for a while (tried trading up for Bailey Humphry and Harley Reid). We need him to become that player. If he doesn't make it as a forward-mid, then backup plan is develop him in the back pocket as a lock down defender and rebounder in a McVee/Hibberd type role.

Is this not just an example of sunken cost fallacy? He's had a limited pre-season and his form has been poor in all games and at all levels this year.

Feels like he's being gifted games because he was a high pick and hoping that he will show something, not at all based on form.

Even if they're not quite right, it must be disheartening for players like Laurie, Woewodin and Billings who can't get a look in despite playing infinitely better and with more consistency at Casey.

I actually think Tholstrup will be a decent player for us, but clearly he needs more fitness via a proper pre-season. Don't think we're doing his development any favours by playing him in the seniors at the moment.

I'd let him play out the year at Casey unless he starts smashing the door down.

Just now, Random Task said:

Is this not just an example of sunken cost fallacy? He's had a limited pre-season and his form has been poor in all games and at all levels this year.

Feels like he's being gifted games because he was a high pick and hoping that he will show something, not at all based on form.

Even if they're not quite right, it must be disheartening for players like Laurie, Woewodin and Billings who can't get a look in despite playing infinitely better and with more consistency at Casey.

I actually think Tholstrup will be a decent player for us, but clearly he needs more fitness via a proper pre-season. Don't think we're doing his development any favours by playing him in the seniors at the moment.

I'd let him play out the year at Casey unless he starts smashing the door down.

what's the difference between 'being gifted games' and 'given opportunity at the highest level'?

when he was fit at the end of last season he looked ready to step up to the afl

he will learn a lot more playing at afl level than vfl, particularly if he continues to play in 'starvation corner' as a half-forward in the afl as opposed to as a midfielder in the vfl

i'd personally be keeping him in for the remainder of the year unless his attitude completely drops away, which would seem to be less likely as he seems to revel in participation if not performance

12 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

what's the difference between 'being gifted games' and 'given opportunity at the highest level'?

He's had 6 'opportunities' already. Are you advocating that he should play 14 games this season where his performance doesn't matter? Opportunity should be given to those who have strung some form together in my view.

when he was fit at the end of last season he looked ready to step up to the afl

He was probably fitter then than now after having his pre-season interrupted with bone stress in his back.

12 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

he will learn a lot more playing at afl level than vfl, particularly if he continues to play in 'starvation corner' as a half-forward in the afl as opposed to as a midfielder in the vfl

He was only averaging 12.7 disposals in the VFL over 3 games with two of those games against the worst teams in the comp. I'm not sure getting reduced game time at senior level and being largely ineffectual when he's on is teaching him much. Maybe a bit.

i'd personally be keeping him in for the remainder of the year unless his attitude completely drops away, which would seem to be less likely as he seems to revel in participation if not performance

Each to their own, I don't profess to have the right answer and their certainly could be some merit to playing him in the seniors. I do love his attitude.

3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Joel Freijah went at 45. Every club missed him, but still, wouldn’t he be a great addition to our side.

As for the OP, I agree with those who defend our kids given they are just that. Our biggest issue is the ongoing reliance on senior players who aren’t performing. 19 and 20 year olds who aren’t getting consistent runs at it are not the focal point right now.

However, I’m not quite sure of Kolt’s AFL-quality talents. You mention his clean hands - that might be fair, but he has to get more of the ball, and in contest, for us to be able to judge that.

Yep Morris and Freijah are the ones everyone missed. They are also the only two I would be confident will have better careers than Kolt. The issue for mine isn’t that we took Kolt its that we traded up for the privilege when unlikely he would be gone later and in a draft that has generally looked pretty middling thus far otherwise.

I like the analogy of Neal-Bullen, Melksham and others who looked terrible in their first few years but came good. Those players all had time trial winning fitness and not flash game sense in early days and their confidence took a hammering which often morphed into poor usage. The elite fitness was the attribute that eventually got the ball rolling when they were given roles to fulfill which required this. Confidence then shot up and up in all areas.

Has Kolt got the endurance and fitness? May have the ball usage skills but definitely has not got the tricks and game sense to just know where the ball will be or where to find team mates unexpectedly.

I am yet to write him off but I have seen this movie before many times with our early investments. Gysberts, Morton, Strauss, Blease and the list goes on. We have more than most and we take longer than most to recognize unfortunately.

What is a concern is that suddenly there are about 8 players on the list who are no good and getting worse in the 2's.

Edited June 30Jun 30 by Wizard of Koz

Young players need time but also every draft has busts so he’s still a concern. He just looks a bit too slow for mine. Langford and Lindsay are slow too but they have tricks that consistently give them time and space to dispose effectively. Haven’t seen that yet from Kolt. He’s good overhead, a reasonable kick and great for morale but he’ll need more than that to get past 100 games.

27 minutes ago, Wizard of Koz said:

I like the analogy of Neal-Bullen, Melksham and others who looked terrible in their first few years but came good. Those players all had time trial winning fitness and not flash game sense in early days and their confidence took a hammering which often morphed into poor usage. The elite fitness was the attribute that eventually got the ball rolling when they were given roles to fulfill which required this. Confidence then shot up and up in all areas.

Has Kolt got the endurance and fitness? May have the ball usage skills but definitely has not got the tricks and game sense to just know where the ball will be or where to find team mates unexpectedly.

I am yet to write him off but I have seen this movie before many times with our early investments. Gysberts, Morton, Strauss, Blease and the list goes on. We have more than most and we take longer than most to recognize unfortunately.

What is a concern is that suddenly there are about 8 players on the list who are no good and getting worse in the 2's.

Actually make that 14 players. So much dead wood. Could have gone harder too. It hasnt dawned until now but we are in strife for the next 5 years. Thank god for 2021!

Jacob van Rooyen

Koltyn Tholstrup

Jack Billings

Bailey Laurie

Shane McAdam

Jed Adams

Marty Hore

Will Verrall

Tom Campbell

Harry Sharp

Tom Fullarton

Taj Woewodin

Kynan Brown

Aidan Johnson

58 minutes ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Yep Morris and Freijah are the ones everyone missed. They are also the only two I would be confident will have better careers than Kolt. The issue for mine isn’t that we took Kolt its that we traded up for the privilege when unlikely he would be gone later and in a draft that has generally looked pretty middling thus far otherwise.

I still have some reservations about Morris, and I know a lot will disagree.

3 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

His ceiling is a potent blend of Melksham and Neal-Bullen.

Long way off it right now but so were Melksham and Neal-Bullen in their early years.

Preseasons, confidence, development - the part that keeps me optimistic about Tholstrup is that the factors which could dramatically improve his output are realistically improvable.

yes lets give him 3 years to settle in. Ohh and of course the perennial lack of pre seasons

given the lack of fitness of the side he should be fitting right in now.

IMO from the limited exposure he’s had. It’s hard to tell what his natural strength is?

Is he a goal kicker?

Is he a tackling machine?

Can he read the play well?

It might be too early? But the only thing I remember him doing so far is him kicking 2 lively goals against WCE last year.

I was never a fan of Kolt from the get go but that probably had more to do with expectation than his performance .The club built has arrival from Esperance as akin to Sam Kekovichs arrival from Myrtelford .Instead of Sam Kekovich all I saw was a fat kid with a funny haircut. Early on he seemed to have no Instincts as to the space around him and generally looked lost .But i have now warmed a bit to Kolt .Why ?.Well for starters he can at least kick straight .More importantly he has a strong pair of hands and is not averse to the physical contest .He only needs now to adjust to the pace of the game .He is now a definite maybe .

2 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

It's one of those cases where we need get his body right and pump games into him due to his draft position

Do you think his draft position alone explains this teetring on the edge of selection without the obvious form to warrant it? Or do you think the FD see something there that isn't perhaps obvious to the average punter?

8 minutes ago, Wizard of Koz said:

Actually make that 14 players. So much dead wood. Could have gone harder too. It hasnt dawned until now but we are in strife for the next 5 years. Thank god for 2021!

Jacob van Rooyen

Koltyn Tholstrup

Jack Billings

Bailey Laurie

Shane McAdam

Jed Adams

Marty Hore

Will Verrall

Tom Campbell

Harry Sharp

Tom Fullarton

Taj Woewodin

Kynan Brown

Aidan Johnson

Gee you’ve gone abit hard. JVR was looking good until the start of this year.

I’ll give you from what they’ve delivered so far at Melb. Tholstrup, Billings, Laurie, Sharp, Fullerton, Woewoden, McAdam, Jefferson, Hore.

The rest haven’t even played an AFL game for us.

Verrel, Adams & Brown haven’t been gifted games like a some of the “dead wood” as you put it above.

Edited June 30Jun 30 by Doug Reemer

8 hours ago, KozzyCan said:

I really don't know what specific traits the recruiters saw in him in the draft.

I'll temper that slightly, I'd love to know what the recruiters saw.

12 minutes ago, Doug Reemer said:

Gee you’ve gone abit hard. JVR was looking good until the start of this year.

I’ll give you from what they’ve delivered so far at Melb. Tholstrup, Billings, Laurie, Sharp, Fullerton, Woewoden, McAdam, Jefferson, Hore.

The rest haven’t even played an AFL game for us.

Verrel, Adams & Brown haven’t been gifted games like a some of the “dead wood” as you put it above.

Fair eough on all. 9 players is still far far too many.

4 hours ago, poita said:

Tholstrup reminds me of Luke Tapscott. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a guy who has developed earlier than his peers and until now hasn't had to put the work in to make the grade.

Interesting comparison, although Tapscott looked a lot more comfortable at AFL level in his first 2 years.

Tholstrup turned 20 a few days ago, not every young player shows what they'll be one and a half years into their careers.

He applies good pressure, is effective below his knees and is a strong mark overhead for his size. He also seems to have a great disposition that will lend itself well to him getting the best out of himself.

There's enough there to be encouraged about. Between Tholstrup and JVR some Melbourne fans are extremely quick to hit the big red button but I'm not nowhere near that with either of them.

9 hours ago, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

Kolt is super clean with his hands and feet but doesn’t get enough of it yet and makes howlers when he overthinks the game.

I believe he will look a lot different with a full preseason and continuity of play.

As far as those who were drafted after him, I suggest go and have a look. Of the next 15 drafted, only two of them played seniors on the weekend and they were Darcy Wilson and Riley Hardeman neither who have been killing it this year. Logan Morris is the one at pick 31 that most clubs missed.

Yeah super clean...... just like that shocking turnover and resulting goal, as you said Howler!

Edited June 30Jun 30 by picket fence

3 hours ago, Doug Reemer said:

Gee you’ve gone abit hard. JVR was looking good until the start of this year.

I’ll give you from what they’ve delivered so far at Melb. Tholstrup, Billings, Laurie, Sharp, Fullerton, Woewoden, McAdam, Jefferson, Hore.

The rest haven’t even played an AFL game for us.

Verrel, Adams & Brown haven’t been gifted games like a some of the “dead wood” as you put it above.

Surely there’s about 40 players that could currently be cut comfortably.

That, and talk about test rings, no wonder people are getting carried away.

Go hard, go early!

Can we go home now?