10 minutes ago, BDA said:

i'm just glad there's life in the season. nothing worse than floundering at the foot of the ladder with nothing to look forward to except the draft and trade period

5 hours ago, VNightCityLegend said:

The lack of coverage surrounding the win on Sunday on the likes of SEN is laughable. Sentiment is, “Brisbane were horrible”… if someone astute like Josh Jenkins, who is typically right with his predictions and analysis wrote this game off can be proven so wrong surely tells us that the win up in Brisbane has a lot more merit to It than that?

Absolute joke that the [censored] Andy Maher and his radio show decided to lead off and focus on St Kilda and West Coast of all the [censored] clubs. They were more than happy to lay the boots in the first 5 rounds but fail to seriously backended the impressive win against serious opposition.

This win shouldn’t be underestimated and I hope we seriously put Sydney to the sword and prove to the rest of these inbred [censored] that this club is on the way back!

Do you think much of the Melbourne supporter demographic listens to SEN? God I hope not. You lead off with content that appeals to the masses. Further, you also lead off with content that promotes a problem and discussion and is emotionally evocative. 🫠

Digest the content you want, by getting off mainstream media.

Eg: The Mongrel Punt

Edited May 20May 20 by Engorged Onion

17 hours ago, bing181 said:

I for one think the season is pretty well dead in terms of finals success. We're too far behind, have a shocking percentage, and while we're starting to show that we're on the right track, we're still going to lose matches. We also have a lot of young/er players, and their progress is never going to be linear.

On the other hand, for me what's important now is to a) bed-in the way we want to play and b) finish off the season strongly, whatever that looks like (caveat: no major injuries). If we can achieve both of those, the season will have upside and more importantly, will go a long way to setting us up for 2026.

Wrong. Look at the ladder.

Yes ONE WIN outside the eight and if we win 9/10 games our % will take care of itself.

While I think you are so premature to give up our chances of making Finals is that we have just stated to get back the traces of a respectable game plan and we were a vey even team on Sunday.

Plenty of time for Lever JVR Howes Kynan Brown and Jeffo to assist in gaining the consistency required to be a viable force.

Obviously serious injuries wouldn’t help but we are managing our resources ( our players) well so they can be at their best later when the whips are cracking.

There is also a number of unreliable teams on 4 and 5 wins now and it may take one of the Clubs currently on 6 wins to open 2 spots in the Top8.

All is open to any Club to sustain the winning habit and I think we may have started to believe in ourselves which is extremely important.

Go Dees ❤️💙

On 16/05/2025 at 06:18, picket fence said:

With another possible 3 gives us 6 for the season. Basket case stuff! Need a fresh approach starting with coach and ancilleries!

Pickett this hasn't aged well.

Early days though.

12 hours ago, Adam The God said:

As I said, our forwards alone had 21 shots on goal for a return of 10.11. It's not how we're structuring up that's the problem, it's our finishing. Which I've said multiple times now.

If we're gonna make a fist of this season We are going to have to be near 85-90% of our capacity playing wise.

somehow our conversion rate has got to lift big time.

We are generating shots on goal which is great, but it can all turn sour with our conversion.

We should be aiming for 55-60 percent every week, on Sunday it was at 48.3% Brisbane's was at 56.5%

Over the entire season our conversion average is 47.2% this part of our game must improve lads, Chocco what are we paying you for.

Edited May 20May 20 by YesitwasaWin4theAges

I take your point, and we are currently 18th - but I assume we will regress to the mean. I also popped in 2021's conversation rates 45% and last years for comparison.

Do what you want with the interpretation :) - Poach North Melbournes kicking coach??

17 minutes ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

If we're gonna make a fist of this season We are going to have to be near 85-90% of our capacity playing wise.

somehow our conversion rate has got to lift big time.

We are generating shots on goal which is great, but it can all turn sour with our conversion.

We should be aiming for 55-60 percent every week, on Sunday it was at 48.3% Brisbane's was at 56.5%

Must get better lads, Chocco what are we paying you for

Edited May 20May 20 by Engorged Onion

I got my figures from footywire, i presume these are from the AFL site?

apologies if they are slightly out.

Either way we have to improve this part of our game pronto.

6 minutes ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

I got my figures from footywire, i presume these are from the AFL site?

apologies if they are slightly out.

Either way we have to improve this part of our game pronto.

Oh, I wasn't having a crack at you, or disagreeing with the data - not in the slightest.

What I feel is a more accurate representation is the volume of shots on goal over the course of the seasons versus the accuracy. In looking at the data, cause I am home sick on the couch and refuse to watch daytime tv - the marrative that accuracy is important is frequently overstated. Of course though, I acknowledge it FEELS important and looks awful when it's a tight match.

I jumped on Wheelostats - but it doesn't really matter - the difference rom best to worst is typically only 10–14% over the past few seasons. This equates to roughly 1 to 1.4 additional goals per 10 scoring shots—an impact that is tiny, over the course of a 23 game season.

In contrast, the volume of shots a team generates has a far more significant effect on outcomes. Teams that consistently create more scoring opportunities are better positioned to win, even if their accuracy is slightly below average. Over time, the sheer number of chances tends to outweigh minor inefficiencies in execution.

The players and coaches do know this... this data is spoken about... its just the $hite statistical analysis that is put onto the publc, means we emotionally* interpret the data.

*not at all like SG, who is an emotionless robot...eh.

Edited Tuesday at 04:155 days by Engorged Onion

I posted this in the Sydney pre game thread, but it's probably better in here.

Just saw a clip from Jordan Lewis from On The Couch saying he doesn't believe Clarry and Viney should be in the middle at the same time.

Whilst I agree to a large extent, I would add a caveat, unless Viney is playing a defensive role.

But it's about allowing Rivers to provide something different to our midfield mix and given his best ever rated game against Brisbane, it's hard to disagree at this stage.

I think Rivers is an excellent and dynamic half back, but if we're to continue to evolve our midfield, he probably needs to stay in the middle and then push out to half back when other mid rotations go through the middle.

Which means more bench time for Clarry and more forward half time for Viney.

You've also got Langford providing something different and hopefully in 2026, you've got Lindsay in there as well.

Watching us try to achieve this midfield balance for the remainder of 2025 though is one of the big watches for me.

On 16/05/2025 at 15:54, Sir Why You Little said:

We had been kicking scores of that nature, long before that Final, and we have continued to do so

The problem has been left alone for way too long

Even against Brisbane last week kicking was still a problem

i think it's worth remembering that the bears drew with north the week before

they're not in the greatest form

On 20/05/2025 at 14:13, Engorged Onion said:

Oh, I wasn't having a crack at you, or disagreeing with the data - not in the slightest.

What I feel is a more accurate representation is the volume of shots on goal over the course of the seasons versus the accuracy. In looking at the data, cause I am home sick on the couch and refuse to watch daytime tv - the marrative that accuracy is important is frequently overstated. Of course though, I acknowledge it FEELS important and looks awful when it's a tight match.

I jumped on Wheelostats - but it doesn't really matter - the difference rom best to worst is typically only 10–14% over the past few seasons. This equates to roughly 1 to 1.4 additional goals per 10 scoring shots—an impact that is tiny, over the course of a 23 game season.

In contrast, the volume of shots a team generates has a far more significant effect on outcomes. Teams that consistently create more scoring opportunities are better positioned to win, even if their accuracy is slightly below average. Over time, the sheer number of chances tends to outweigh minor inefficiencies in execution.

The players and coaches do know this... this data is spoken about... its just the $hite statistical analysis that is put onto the publc, means we emotionally* interpret the data.

*not at all like SG, who is an emotionless robot...eh.

Great post EO.

It highlights a critiical element of modern coaches' philosophy, particularly goody's - a huge emphasis on percentages and probability. That's to say say strategies informed by the probability of them increasing scoring (or decreaing oppo scoring).

A great example is the shift in the NBA to taking massive numbers of 3 point shots.

That tactical shift, one many people really hate, is a direct result of the data showing that even though a higher percentage of shots get missed than 2 point shots, there is statistical advantage to take more 3 point shots In terms of scoring.

That's to say teams score more taking a higher volume of lower percentage shots.

Goody won a flag playing the percentages - namely a higher volume of inside 50s and winning territory.

There was a tactical response from other team which has changed the percentages and we've had to adjust our method as a result.

Edited Saturday at 04:231 day by binman

27 minutes ago, Adam The God said:

I posted this in the Sydney pre game thread, but it's probably better in here.

Just saw a clip from Jordan Lewis from On The Couch saying he doesn't believe Clarry and Viney should be in the middle at the same time.

Whilst I agree to a large extent, I would add a caveat, unless Viney is playing a defensive role.

But it's about allowing Rivers to provide something different to our midfield mix and given his best ever rated game against Brisbane, it's hard to disagree at this stage.

I think Rivers is an excellent and dynamic half back, but if we're to continue to evolve our midfield, he probably needs to stay in the middle and then push out to half back when other mid rotations go through the middle.

Which means more bench time for Clarry and more forward half time for Viney.

You've also got Langford providing something different and hopefully in 2026, you've got Lindsay in there as well.

Watching us try to achieve this midfield balance for the remainder of 2025 though is one of the big watches for me.

I can see merit in all of this, but I don't think it's as simple as "can't play in the same midfield together" either. I think a big part of it is about what roles they are playing and how they are performing.

When one or both are out of form, it's a mess. Particularly if it's Clarry, because when out of form Clarry isn't accountable.

Even though we have talked about Clarry playing a "tagging" role lately, I do think it has been a different tagging role to what Viney was playing.

Vineys was as a defensive, shutdown tagger.

Clarrys was more about accountability for beating his direct opponent, which gave him licence to hunt the ball while also being responsible not to get completely outpointed. I think that personal level challenge (one on one with his man) really brought the competitive streak back in Clarey which is fantastic.

So I don't think we have seen the end of Viney and Clarry in the middle together. Sure the early season versions of both was a disaster, but my gut says we should test it again with these new roles and form before writing it off.

I do think that releasing Riv into the midfield a bit more provides an extra dimension due to his pace and kicking angles, and I agree we should work that in where we can.

Between Clarry, Viney, Trac, Kossie, River, Langford and probably Lindsay eventually, have some credible midfield rotations now

42 minutes ago, jackaub said:

Even against Brisbane last week kicking was still a problem

Absolutely. The team is playing a lot better, but the Forward line still needs a lot of work. We are generating loads of opportunities, but we must improve efficiency when the chances arise

31 minutes ago, deanox said:

I can see merit in all of this, but I don't think it's as simple as "can't play in the same midfield together" either. I think a big part of it is about what roles they are playing and how they are performing.

When one or both are out of form, it's a mess. Particularly if it's Clarry, because when out of form Clarry isn't accountable.

Even though we have talked about Clarry playing a "tagging" role lately, I do think it has been a different tagging role to what Viney was playing.

Vineys was as a defensive, shutdown tagger.

Clarrys was more about accountability for beating his direct opponent, which gave him licence to hunt the ball while also being responsible not to get completely outpointed. I think that personal level challenge (one on one with his man) really brought the competitive streak back in Clarey which is fantastic.

So I don't think we have seen the end of Viney and Clarry in the middle together. Sure the early season versions of both was a disaster, but my gut says we should test it again with these new roles and form before writing it off.

I do think that releasing Riv into the midfield a bit more provides an extra dimension due to his pace and kicking angles, and I agree we should work that in where we can.

Between Clarry, Viney, Trac, Kossie, River, Langford and probably Lindsay eventually, have some credible midfield rotations now

I also think that Bowser, Knuckles and Leb will also eventually be a part of the midfield rotation.

Maybe too early and mods please delete or shuffle if appropriate.

I couldn't find one.

13 more games I think.

If we win tomorrow that's 20 points .

How many do we need?

Is 13 wins given our percentage enough?

That's eight more including tomorrow.

Big ask.

But every season in terms of those last six to eight vying for the last few spots seem to get tighter.

Edited Saturday at 04:111 day by leave it to deever

I dont think you need 17 wins all up to make finals. Probably 14 wins so to go.

Edited Saturday at 04:271 day by Wizard of Koz

15 minutes ago, leave it to deever said:

Maybe too early and mods please delete or shuffle if appropriate.

I couldn't find one.

13 more games I think.

If we win tomorrow that's 20 points .

How many do we need?

Is 13 wins given our percentage enough?

That's eight more including tomorrow.

Big ask.

But every season in terms of those last six to eight vying for the last few spots seem to get tighter.

You're pretty close I'd say.

By my figuring there's approx a 70% chance a team needs 13 wins this year to secure themselves into the 8. Possible with 12 but a lot of cards need to fall that team's way.

From current that's 9 out of the remaining games.

Not impossible, just rather implausible for mine.

Tomorrow might tell us a lot.

Go Dees

My poor math there. If we win tomorrow, I'd say we need another eight.

The next three games can really set us up for finals. Sydney, St. Kilda and Collingwood are all gettable at the moment with their injuries or form. Our team is just starting to come together nicely, and with very few of our best 23 players uninjured we can build on what has already been 4/5 wins on the board of late. My mates thought I was off with the fairies when we were 0-5 and I said we can still make finals, and yes it will be very tough to get there but we're definitely still in with a chance. We just have to want it bad enough!

31 minutes ago, Where Demons Dare said:

The next three games can really set us up for finals. Sydney, St. Kilda and Collingwood are all gettable at the moment with their injuries or form. Our team is just starting to come together nicely, and with very few of our best 23 players uninjured we can build on what has already been 4/5 wins on the board of late. My mates thought I was off with the fairies when we were 0-5 and I said we can still make finals, and yes it will be very tough to get there but we're definitely still in with a chance. We just have to want it bad enough!

30 minutes later, nah.

Simply have to win the next two. Finals door is firmly closed if we don't.

Not just about wins, but also percentage. Given that ours is so low, we may need an extra win. I doubt that 13 will do it.

5 hours ago, bing181 said:

Not just about wins, but also percentage. Given that ours is so low, we may need an extra win. I doubt that 13 will do it.

But if they do keep winning, the currently low percentage won’t stay where it is, it will improve with the wins, which will help.

I’d be hopeful that 13 wins would be enough to just make the finals.

reckon we have to beat swans and saints next up. that'll even up the ledger

if we can then take down the injury hit pies on KB we're 7-6 heading into the break with confidence sky high

7-3 post break is then totally doable to finish on 14 wins (13 wins not enough given our poor percentage)

next 3 games crucial to the season imo. gotta win them

10 minutes ago, BDA said:

reckon we have to beat swans and saints next up. that'll even up the ledger

if we can then take down the injury hit pies on KB we're 7-6 heading into the break with confidence sky high

7-3 post break is then totally doable to finish on 14 wins (13 wins not enough given our poor percentage)

next 3 games crucial to the season imo. gotta win them

The final 10 games starts with Port Adelaide (before the bye), followed by GC and Adelaide post-bye, all away. I’ve never seen a side have three consecutive road trips (whether or not including a bye). It’s a brutal month.

We then get North, Carlton, St Kilda and West Coast, before closing with the Dogs, Hawthorn and Collingwood.

Even if we do win the next 3, having to go 7-3 from the rest seems very difficult IMO.

But for me, let’s just see how we go tomorrow. As good as last week was, and even respecting that we’ve gone 4-1 over the last 5 weeks, a loss tomorrow will flip these sorts of threads back into “sack Goodwin” and “omg we don’t have a first round pick” again.