The Pick 1 Thread

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

On 13/10/2023 at 10:36, bandicoot said:

No interstate club will take curtin with such a high possibility that they will go home. Not worth the risk 

JvR says hi 👋 

[Clintosaurus 7,867]

2 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

There is a developing theory amongst recruiters that North, Hawks & Dogs all have put more time into other players, hence a strong chance that Curtin gets through.

North now strongly linked to Duursma & McKercher.

One reason that we are still well in the game.

Absolutely. It's not about WC getting better picks, but the players they want at the picks on offer, without massively reaching.

[rpfc 28,779]

3 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

 

Exactly. What would you have given up for Petracca?

That’s right. That kind of talent are game changers.

[bandicoot 1,395]

3 hours ago, greenwaves said:

Why would West Coast trade pick one to us? That would mean they slide down to pick six and probably miss out on Curtin

Because they will get pick 6, 11 and a future 1st. It turns 1 pick inside 20 to 3.

no other interstate side is picking curtin and there’s too much risk he will go home.

[bandicoot 1,395]

1 hour ago, Stiff Arm said:

JvR says hi 👋 

Jvr is 19… wait until the go home factor kicks in. Btw jvr was pick 19.. hardly a top 5 recruit

[drysdale demon 4,837]

1 hour ago, Stiff Arm said:

JvR says hi 👋 

Meanwhile JHF and Jackson wave bye bye

[demoncat 1,514]

Hawks reportedly offered Brockman, pick 4 and their future first for pick 1 which was knocked back by West Coast

[Little Goffy 14,645]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

 

The pick 1 hype situation is getting out of hand.

[Demonsterative 3,020]

4 minutes ago, demoncat said:

Hawks reportedly offered Brockman, pick 4 and their future first for pick 1 which was knocked back by West Coast

Possibly have or working on a better offer. If we are chasing pick one hard, bodes well for us. Depending on what/who we give up. 

[bandicoot 1,395]

16 minutes ago, demoncat said:

Hawks reportedly offered Brockman, pick 4 and their future first for pick 1 which was knocked back by West Coast

That’s essentially pick 4, brockman (40) and and FF. Dees offer is still better 

[Lord Travis 10,763]

Brockman has officially been traded for picks 44 and 63 already. Helps us potentially as he won't be part of a Hawks bid for pick 1.

[Nascent 9,283]

Way I see it there are three potential outcomes for pick 1

- Stays with West Coast

- Traded to North

- Traded to Us.

North would have to offer at least one of 2 or 3, 15 and future 1st.

We will have to offer 6, 11 and future 1st.

I don't see North trading picks 2 and 3, and they would be very hesitant to offer a future 1st with that still being a high probability of being a top 4 pick.

I don't see Melbourne or Kangaroos adding players to the equation but could easily be wrong there.

At this stage I think West Coast are favourites to keep pick 1.

[chookrat 4,268]

20 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Way I see it there are three potential outcomes for pick 1

- Stays with West Coast

- Traded to North

- Traded to Us.

North would have to offer at least one of 2 or 3, 15 and future 1st.

We will have to offer 6, 11 and future 1st.

I don't see North trading picks 2 and 3, and they would be very hesitant to offer a future 1st with that still being a high probability of being a top 4 pick.

I don't see Melbourne or Kangaroos adding players to the equation but could easily be wrong there.

At this stage I think West Coast are favourites to keep pick 1.

West Coast need 3 first round picks more than they need Curtin or Reid. They need a core group of young talent developing together to rebuild their list around, similar to when we were rubbish and split pick 2 for Tyson and Salem.

[Adam The God 30,421]

1 hour ago, Nascent said:

Way I see it there are three potential outcomes for pick 1

- Stays with West Coast

- Traded to North

- Traded to Us.

North would have to offer at least one of 2 or 3, 15 and future 1st.

We will have to offer 6, 11 and future 1st.

I don't see North trading picks 2 and 3, and they would be very hesitant to offer a future 1st with that still being a high probability of being a top 4 pick.

I don't see Melbourne or Kangaroos adding players to the equation but could easily be wrong there.

At this stage I think West Coast are favourites to keep pick 1.

Agree that it most likely stays with WC, but based on your analysis, I'd say the second most likely destination of pick 1 is us.

I think you're right in saying North won't want to trade a F1 (1/2/3 in 2024) and I don't think they'll trade both 2 and 3 either, so their best offer will be 2 or 3 + 15.

Whereas, our best offer could well be 6 + 11 + F1 (18 😉 ), and WC could still pick up Curtin at 6 with no go home factor, whilst getting another potentially good player with 11.

If pick 1 is traded, I can only see us getting it.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Binmans PA

[DubDee 26,123]

delete

Edited October 14, 2023 by DubDee

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

On 12/10/2023 at 09:05, JeffWhitesShinguard said:

Would West Coast be disincentivised to hand Reid to the Kangaroos (or Hawthorn) so as not to strengthen the clubs that are likely to be contending around the same time as them? 

If you're a developing club that's given the choice between trading with another developing club and one that's in the premiership window, I would have thought that trading with the stronger club is a strategically better option. 

Is this sort of consideration ever an input into trade decisions? 

Would obviously benefit Melbourne if that's the case here. 

No.  WC need the multiple top end picks that North have in spades.

Their cupboard's pretty much bare and they need to start getting back on the winners list to at least look credible to their supporter base and from a broadcasting viability sense.

The North trade was always on for them.  1 (potential) gun player just won't cut it and multiples lower down allows them to grab Curtin.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

46 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Agree that it most likely stays with WC, but based on your analysis, I'd say the second most likely destination of pick 1 is us.

I think you're right in saying North won't want to trade a F1 (1/2/3 in 2024) and I don't think they'll trade both 2 and 3 either, so their best offer will be 2 or 3 + 15.

Whereas, our best offer could well be 6 + 11 + F1 (18 😉 ), and WC could still pick up Curtin at 6 with no go home factor, whilst getting another potentially good player with 11.

If pick 1 is traded, I can only see us getting it.

What makes you think they wouldn't trade a F1 to get 1 from WC?

North could also trade one or more of these to snare another higher pick now yes?

Edited October 14, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Adam The God 30,421]

9 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

What makes you think they wouldn't trade a F1 to get 1 from WC?

Because, as I wrote, it'll be pick 1, 2 or 3 next year in all probability. That means, there's nothing to fall back on with a poor season. I don't see that as a responsible list management strategy.

I've been wrong before though...

Edited October 14, 2023 by Binmans PA

[Ethan Tremblay 30,970]

I can’t see us getting pick 1. If West Coast are going to trade it, it’s going to be with North. 6, 11 and a future first (from a top hour team) isn’t enough. If we were offered that deal in reverse, we’d be laughing. 

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,496]

Pick 6, Swallow and Bradshaw. 

[Adam The God 30,421]

7 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I can’t see us getting pick 1. If West Coast are going to trade it, it’s going to be with North. 6, 11 and a future first (from a top hour team) isn’t enough. If we were offered that deal in reverse, we’d be laughing. 

Sure, I'd take Reid, but he's a Victorian and we're a Melbourne based team. Conversely, there's Curtin who is said to be a ripper, who is a local lad. 

If there's any doubt internally at WC about Reid's desire to return to Victoria, that may factor into decision making here.

I'm entirely speculating here, but I think that's one of the reasons I think we started rumours of Reid not wanting to go west.

It's limited leverage, but implants a concern / variable in the minds of WC recruiters that must be considered. 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Binmans PA

[mo64 5,881]

2 hours ago, Nascent said:

Way I see it there are three potential outcomes for pick 1

- Stays with West Coast

- Traded to North

- Traded to Us.

North would have to offer at least one of 2 or 3, 15 and future 1st.

We will have to offer 6, 11 and future 1st.

I don't see North trading picks 2 and 3, and they would be very hesitant to offer a future 1st with that still being a high probability of being a top 4 pick.

I don't see Melbourne or Kangaroos adding players to the equation but could easily be wrong there.

At this stage I think West Coast are favourites to keep pick 1.

My source in Perth said that West Coast see Reid as a flight risk, so they will definitely be trading pick 1. And I still think that he's going to North with either pick 2 or 3 plus add-ons.

[Adam The God 30,421]

1 minute ago, mo64 said:

My source in Perth said that West Coast see Reid as a flight risk, so they will definitely be trading pick 1. And I still think that he's going to North with either pick 2 or 3 plus add-ons.

And if this is true, there you go. This is precisely what I'm talking about.

This'll be interesting. 

It's not like West Coast can sell a fast turnaround. They're a basketcase.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Binmans PA

[Ethan Tremblay 30,970]

6 minutes ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

Pick 6, Swallow and Bradshaw. 

Not a dig but this is an example of supporter bias. 

Also, if West Coast are willing to trade pick 1, they’ll want a pick in return that is going to net them Curtin. 6 is no certainty at all to do this. Pick 2-4 plus another top 10 pick is what the Eagles will be wanting to trade 1. 

[Adam The God 30,421]

Just now, Ethan Tremblay said:

Not a dig but this is an example of supporter bias. 

I think it was a joke mate. Unless you're joking too?

Just now, Ethan Tremblay said:

Also, if West Coast are willing to trade pick 1, they’ll want a pick in return that is going to net them Curtin. 6 is no certainty at all to do this. Pick 2-4 plus another top 10 pick is what the Eagles will be wanting to trade 1. 

Well, yeah, but most teams would know who's taking who.