PREGAME: SF vs Carlton

[Jeremy 981]

8 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

We can beat Brisbane up there, yes they're having a party up there right now but we can take them...we just need to get our house in order, we have the tools.

We do not have the tools up forward, Fritsch will be on one foot by then. If Melksham and Petty were playing it’d be a different story

[Deemania since 56 6,637]

On 9/8/2023 at 7:51 AM, Jaded No More said:

Agree with all that. I too have no idea who the sub should be. Woewodin? Maybe Spargo in for Chandler as sub as you say. 
Unfortunately the forwardline will remain an issue and without JVR it will lack even more pack splitting power. 

Then we should not deliver pack-intended forward feeds! We have the alternative mobility just a little up the ground.

[Deemania since 56 6,637]

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Don’t ask me; ask the Footy Department. I didn’t want this trade and said as much at the time. They want to prolong Max’s career by making him progressively ruck less and become a fed who rucks. They shouldn’t have bothered.

But we have to work with what we have got in 2023 and Gawn being deep may be our best chance to kick a winning score.

It's not a Max issue to me. It is a Grundy issue, needing to diversify his offerings for the sake of the team - be these rucking, forwarding, supporting, clearing, spoiling, passing, receiving and distributing. 

[praha 11,240]

52 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Brisbane lost in straight sets in 2019, lost a home prelim in 2020 in a year in which they didn't have to leave their home state, and then went out in straight sets in 2021.

Geelong made top 4 how many times from 2012-2021. made how many prelims, but failed to win a flag?

If we do lose next week, at least we can look back on a three-year period of top 4 finishes and see a flag for our efforts.

In an earlier post in this thread you said we'd been gifted a run to the GF.

Now you're saying we had the hard road and we should have finished 3rd instead.

Which one is it? They can't both be true.

You have reached full praha doom spiral, again. 

Sorry, I meant we've been gifted a finals run by having 4 in a row at the MCG. And would have never needed to travel if we just got the job done like punters and the general public thought we would. I think we've choked pretty badly now three times in a row on the big stage at the MCG in finals after winning a flag in front of rent-a-crowds. I don't think we can escape that. Carlton is a must win not just for the season but just general headspace and respect in the league.

My point about playing Brisbane in week 1 was around the hypothetical of losing, in that given we have lost to Collingwood, in hindsight you'd rather be playing Brisbane in week 1 than in a Prelim, which is the path we are on. It's purely hypothetical. I'm talking best and worst case scenarios. I said a few weeks back that I'd rather play Brisbane in week 1 and guarantee travel early, because that would set you up for 2-3 matches at the MCG if we made the GF (Semi, Prelim against Pies, GF), rather than the risk of losing in week 1 at the MCG (as we have) and now be forced on a path to an elimination in Brisbane.

The reality is we fought so hard two seasons in a row to line up a pristine run to the Grand Final. It's not the end of the world and I'm definitely not on a doom spiral.

But we've really [censored] up our chances. Yes I know it's a QF, Collingwoof is 1st, this is why you finish top 4 so you get another chance. But we were favourites on Thursday for a reason. And we were spooked. Before choking late.

Edited September 9, 2023 by praha

[Young Angus 798]

4 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Then we should not deliver pack-intended forward feeds! We have the alternative mobility just a little up the ground.

The only person taking pack splitting marks was Petty and sometimes Melksham...this tactic didn't work for us very well last game did it?  Stop the long bombs, they don't work, lower and smaller and more dynamic please.

[mrtwister 652]

If only Petracca’s kick at the end of the Carlton game hadn’t been touched. 
I know I should be over it by now but OMG. 
We would be hosting Bris at the mcg tonight. Port would have had Collingwood Thursday, Carlton would have had st kilda and Sydney v GWS would have been a cracker. 
Sliding doors moment. 

[godees 863]

19 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

A bit? I’d be having nightmares for the rest of my life if I was the recruitment team. 
 

Having Trac, Oliver, Gawn, Curnow, May in the same team… would be a thing of beauty. 

Typo. It was supposed to say big lol

[titan_uranus 25,019]

1 minute ago, praha said:

Sorry, I meant we've been gifted a finals run by having 4 in a row at the MCG. And would have never needed to travel if we just got the job done like punters and the general public thought we would. I think we've choked pretty badly now three times in a row on the big stage at the MCG in finals after winning a flag in front of rent-a-crowds. I don't think we can escape that. Carlton is a must win not just for the season but just general headspace and respect in the league.

My point about playing Brisbane in week 1 was around the hypothetical of losing, in that given we have lost to Collingwood, in hindsight you'd rather be playing Brisbane in week 1 than in a Prelim, which is the path we are on. It's purely hypothetical. I'm talking best and worst case scenarios. I said a few weeks back that I'd rather play Brisbane in week 1 and guarantee travel early, because that would set you up for 2-3 matches at the MCG if we made the GF (Semi, Prelim against Pies, GF), rather than the risk of losing in week 1 at the MCG (as we have) and now be forced on a path to an elimination in Brisbane.

The reality is we fought so hard two seasons in a row to line up a pristine run to the Grand Final. It's not the end of the world and I'm definitely not on a doom spiral.

But we've really [censored] up our chances. Yes I know it's a QF, Collingwoof is 1st, this is why you finish top 4 so you get another chance. But we were favourites on Thursday for a reason. And we were spooked. Before choking late.

We weren't favourites, Collingwood were.

Like almost everyone, I also said pre-game that our flag chances hinged on the QF, and our path to winning it now is significantly more difficult than a home prelim against Port/GWS. So in that regard, I agree, I think the loss is significantly destructive for our season. 

But you are on a doom spiral. For the past fortnight you were riding high, telling us how you couldn't see how we could lose. Now, after a loss, you're posting about back-to-back straight sets exits, failures of two seasons, chokes and you're now venturing into diminishing our flag because of "rent-a-crowds".

Let's at least see what happens against Carlton first.

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,829]

The winning sides this week 1 have combined for 54.34 and have been superbly accurate.

Clearly accuracy is one of the key criterions in us getting over the line, as we have the game plan, competitiveness and fitness to go the distance (albeit we switch off defensively during periods of the game)

[Antioch 232]

2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Why dont you stfu with the drama queen bs eh.

Some of us arentvas twinkly eyed as you...then suck it up princess.

Our forward line and forward craft are but non existent presently. Those that were shoring it up are unavailable...but thats justba nithing to you apparently.  Not all would agree.

Others weve come to expect to chime in seem way off form.  ...

We lost...because we choked

Get that in your head.   Other teams are slotting them.... we miss the barn.

It is actually a concern... even during h/a games but here we are facing another inglorious exit.... because we dont have a functioning fwd group.

Im hoping Goody and Co can pull a few rabbits out. That would be good.

Many are struggling to see how.   As previous efforts have been less than successful. 

But by all means.....just a couple of goals

We had ample opportunity....  we struggle currently to convert.

We dont have Petty..We dont have Milky, we wont have up and down Roo boy either.

Whats your answer ??  

 

 

 

 

Petty has been a back. He had one good game as a forward against terrible opposition. Give it a rest. 

[Vineytime 847]

Really hitting home now what we let slip vs pies on Thursday night. 
Tough road ahead…

[titan_uranus 25,019]

3 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

The winning sides this week 1 have combined for 54.34 and have been superbly accurate.

Clearly accuracy is one of the key criterions in us getting over the line, as we have the game plan, competitiveness and fitness to go the distance (albeit we switch off defensively during periods of the game)

Equally importantly, we kicked 7.11 and lost (more scoring shots than our opponent), Sydney kicked 9.14 and lost (more scoring shots than their opponent), and Port kicked 1.4 in the first quarter when they could have applied a bit more scoreboard pressure to Brisbane, and then lost.

[rpfc 28,430]

1 minute ago, Deemania since 56 said:

It's not a Max issue to me. It is a Grundy issue, needing to diversify his offerings for the sake of the team - be these rucking, forwarding, supporting, clearing, spoiling, passing, receiving and distributing. 

Not a Max issue…

Wow.

They both should be sharing the ruck and the sacrifice.

We have a Semi Final we have to win - we are without options - can Max step up and sacrifice for the team to get to a Prelim in Brisbane? 

It’s a failed year if it doesn’t happen.

[Macca 16,969]

6 hours ago, praha said:

If we lose Friday we'll be the first team ever to go out in straight sets in consecutive years. Hawthorn went out in straight sets in 2016 and 2018 but missed finals in 2017.

Might have already been said but Carlton went out in straight sets in 1975 & 1976

And since the late 1960's I believe teams going out in straight sets has happened over 30 times

[praha 11,240]

2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

We weren't favourites, Collingwood were.

Like almost everyone, I also said pre-game that our flag chances hinged on the QF, and our path to winning it now is significantly more difficult than a home prelim against Port/GWS. So in that regard, I agree, I think the loss is significantly destructive for our season. 

But you are on a doom spiral. For the past fortnight you were riding high, telling us how you couldn't see how we could lose. Now, after a loss, you're posting about back-to-back straight sets exits, failures of two seasons, chokes and you're now venturing into diminishing our flag because of "rent-a-crowds".

Let's at least see what happens against Carlton first.

Melbourne were favourites from Wednesday afternoon.

I posted a quirky stat re. straight sets exists (which we are staring down). I just thought it was tragic and funny.

I was confident we would win on Thursday (I'm...sorry?). And we should have, comfortably, and I think we didn't because we choked.

I also think it's just funny and frustrating that our best season ever, happened when no one could go to the football and finals were played in neutral stadiums. And now that we are back to normal suddenly we can't win a final, at home, even as favourites and highly fancied. It is *literally* the definition of a choke.

[Demon17 5,188]

23 minutes ago, mrtwister said:

If only Petracca’s kick at the end of the Carlton game hadn’t been touched. 
I know I should be over it by now but OMG. 
We would be hosting Bris at the mcg tonight. Port would have had Collingwood Thursday, Carlton would have had st kilda and Sydney v GWS would have been a cracker. 
Sliding doors moment. 

It wasn't touched and the call cost us 2nd spot

[old dee 23,791]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

We should have

But we didn't, the only stat that matters is the final score. The world is full of should haves. 

[monoccular 17,428]

55 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

Would love that too, why not??  Does Tmac stay in?  I don't even care if JVR gets suspended or not I'd rather see Turner come in for him at this stage and I want Grundy in there too.  Grundy is a quality unit, he needs to be in there, just don't ask Max to change his game and tell Grundy to just be better!!

I know Tmac only had the one game, but bugger it:

Out Tmac, JVR, Brayshaw, Chandler

In Grundy, Turner, Jordan, Spargo

Chandler sub

Turner as a forward who has never played in our forward structure, such as it is, in a cut throat final?  😱😱😱

34 minutes ago, Lewis said:

We do not have the tools up forward, Fritsch will be on one foot by then. If Melksham and Petty were playing it’d be a different story

Lewis - how bad is your MFCSS?     Why else would you say that Fritsch will be on one foot by then???  🙄🙄 

[Dee-monic 620]

Max is in magnificent form and we shouldn't do anything to mess with his role. Grundy, if he comes in, could just stay at full-forward where he might at least take a mark or two or create a contest and get the ball to ground. Of course it's not ideal, but we are out of options.

With Petty, Melksham and JVR out, and TMac looking like a steam train that has run out of steam, the only alternative would be to take a huge gamble on BBB's fitness. That would surely be too big a risk.

I would bring Harmes in for Brayshaw to perform the one role he is good at ---- putting a tag on Cerra to disrupt Carlton's midfield.

McKay's absence means we may be able to go with just two talls in defence again, although this does reduce Lever's flexibility.

Whatever Goody does, this will be quite a test of his ability to come up with some creative coaching.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Dee-monic
Spelling correction

[praha 11,240]

33 minutes ago, Macca said:

Might have already been said but Carlton went out in straight sets in 1975 & 1976

And since the late 1960's I believe teams going out in straight sets has happened over 30 times

Top 4 era since 2000.

[mrtwister 652]

24 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

It wasn't touched and the call cost us 2nd spot

No it wasn’t. But I didn’t want to add to the mood on here. Seems dire enough already. 

[Macca 16,969]

3 minutes ago, praha said:

Top 4 era since 2000.

You should have mentioned that criteria in your original post

[layzie 33,805]

10 minutes ago, mrtwister said:

No it wasn’t. But I didn’t want to add to the mood on here. Seems dire enough already. 

I wouldn't worry mate, floodgates are open..

[Adam The God 30,259]

Having just read all 22 pages, I'm glad I stayed off this thread for 48 hours. The amount of wrist slashing and doom and gloom is hilariously Demonland on the Saturday night of this posting, but would have been frustratingly mind melting any time before this. I've now processed some of my frustration from Thursday night and am ready to dig a little a deeper.

I do want to remind some Demonlanders though of the lead up to the QF, where there was hardly a negative word written and people were supremely confident of a win. I thought we'd win and am shattered that we didn't, but the way some have hugely flipflopped based on one result is truly emotional muppetry. Maybe set more realistic expectations going into this week?

Despite this, I can certainly understand the frustration, hence staying out of this thread for so long myself. However, if we can make the GF and it's against Collingwood, IMO we have them covered providing we kick straight. The atmosphere in the last quarter was very similar to much of the KB game in that Collingwood supporters were clearly packing themselves, because they saw their team being mauled at the contest and us generating multiple inside 50s and very good (and gettable) chances that should have been taken.

But what's done is done and we have a chance to redeem ourselves next week. I'm hoping we can conjure a bit of the 2015 Premiers about us this finals series (ie, lose the QF, run rampant in the SF, beat an interstate side away from home in the PF and smash the original winner of the QF in the GF). I'm more worried though about getting past Carlton than I am playing Brisbane, but Brisbane would be a tough test too.

One week at a time though. Selection will be fascinating again. My initial instinct was we'd have to bring in Grundy, but we may just resort to bringing in another runner (Jordon at this point) and bringing in Turner to play forward or back. And does Spargo come in for Chandler or Laurie? (don't bother answering this one, Picket) 

What I'd like most of all is, and I don't think we can win the flag unless this starts to happen, is for us to start the game properly. And I mean, we need our midfield, our engine room to start the game hard, fast and on from the first bounce. It's been at least 6 games since we started well. Our first quarters against Richmond (R20 with 3.5 to 5.4), North (R21 with 1.3 to 5.5!), Carlton (R22 with 1.0 to 1.3, but only due to our amazing defence and defensive system rather than our midfield winning clearance and territory), Hawthorn (R23 with 3.2 to 4.2), Sydney (R24 with 3.2 to 2.5) and then Collingwood (1.0 to 4.2). 

So we've won 1 first quarter in six weeks and that was arguably due to Sydney's inaccurate kicking. I can cop that in the H&A season, particularly if you know you've got fitness on your side and you're eventually running over teams, but in finals football, the pressure on every play is different and you don't want to spend the whole game chasing. 

Think back to the 2021 finals series. In the QF against Brisbane, we were 5.4 to 4.2 at quarter time. In the PF against Geelong, we were 5.3 to 1.0, and in the GF, we were 4.5 to 1.2. So we won all first quarters. That is what you need to do in finals. Simple as that.

If we're going to go any further this year, we need to start doing two major things.

1) We need to start winning first quarters and putting early scoreboard pressure on our opposition. This puts them under more pressure to score, knowing how difficult we are to break down defensively, and that in turn, increases our scoring chances from turnover. Which, btw, we kept Collingwood to 1 point less than our average of 41 points conceded from turnover. So our defence and defensive system was exceptional on Thursday night. Which brings me to...

2) Where we let ourselves down against Collingwood, and if we're to go further this year, is we need to convert our scoring chances from turnover. We've averaged 51.8 points from turnover this season and on Thursday, we kicked 3.7.25 (!) from turnover to Collingwood's 6.4.40. We lost the game in conversion from turnover. 

So our method is strong, there is no need to panic in terms of wholesale personnel changes. We have the two forced changes and possibly whether we could get more out of Spargo than we did Chandler, but I'm not convinced on that front and will trust the FD there.

If we win the first quarter and we convert our chances, we will be extremely difficult to beat and I'll go as far as saying, we won't be beaten if we do this.

Apologies for the book. Lap it up.

And thanks to @WheeloRatings for his brilliant score source stats in the Stats thread.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Binmans PA

[layzie 33,805]

51 minutes ago, old dee said:

But we didn't, the only stat that matters is the final score. The world is full of should haves. 

We should have won and gone straight through to the prelim.