Harley Reid

[old55 23,687]

If I'm Brady Rawlings I'm doing everything to retain McKay, he's only 25 and he seems to be finally getting his body right over the last 3 years.  It takes longer for KPs to mature.  They would be well set with Larkey forward and McKay back as their young talented midfield matures and they could draft another mid or medium this year.  If McKay leaves they'll have to find another KPB and they're in short supply.

[DistrACTION Jackson 9,204]

18 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Why would they do that when North at least would give them 2 and more to get Reid and then they get Curtin and more.

Because if I'm North I'm just holding out, worst case they get the 2nd/3rd best player and best case WC take Curtin and they get Reid.

[Mach5 4,768]

Honestly, if we had 4 & 5, I think I’d rather keep them than trade them for 1.

[ElDiablo14 5,002]

6 minutes ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

Because if I'm North I'm just holding out, worst case they get the 2nd/3rd best player and best case WC take Curtin and they get Reid.

Could North want to trade 2nd for our 4th and potentially 5th (trade with GC)?

If McKay leaves and they get the 3rd pick (unlikely), this would yield North 3rd, 4th and 5th picks.

North already has a stacked midfield, they may want to have multiple picks to choose multiple players to strengthen their backline and forward.

 

[Colm 2,183]

1 hour ago, Palace Dees said:

I have thought of a way we can get Harley Reid, or at least end up with picks 4 and 5 in this draft.  Picks are based on current ladder positions. 

I have calculated total points gained/lost for the GC deal as that is the main determinator for them to deal.

 

 

Club                                Pick/s to                     Points                                 Pick/s from                 Points

Adelaide                         Future 1st                          ?                                     24                                   785

                                                                                                                         Future 3 or 4                      ?

 

Gold Coast                      17                                 1025                                    5                                    1878

                                        23                                  815                                     46 or 56                       331 or 194

                                        24                                  785

                               

West Coast                      4                                 2034                                      1                                      3000

                                         5                                 1878                                       38                                     465

 

Total points value GC deal                                    2625                                                                               2209 or 2072

 

 

We end up with picks     1, 36, 38, 46 (or 56), 91

 

We lose our 1st pick in 2024 but possibly gain a future 3^rd or 4^th  although, to me, that would be icing and shouldn’t prevent us doing the deal.

Hopefully the format remains legible  (*it does on my laptop, but not my phone)

I await the public stoning.

 

If on mobile.

To Adelaide future 1st. From pick 24 and future 3rd or 4th.

To Gold Coast 17,23,24. From 5 and 46 or 56

To West Coast 4 & 5. From 1 & 38

Nice work PD. A bit of thought went into that. I’m not sure that’s the sort of deal that will appeal to the Suns as they would have way too many points in this draft to cover their Academy players. Then could on trade 17&23 for a good future pick and something a bit later in this draft maybe. 
But if we were looking at doing a 3 way trade we would probably need to do some of this leg work for them. 

[ignition. 1,466]

Apologies if there is a thread on this already.

All I can say is if big McKay goes to Essendon and the AFL compensate North with a first round pick directly after their current one (pick 3) the system is beyond rigged and manipulated (like the Mac Andrew last minute rule change a few years ago). If it goes through, count us out of the Reid race and rub salt into the wound by diluting our draft pick as a consequence of losing Jackson.

I don't blame North for trying, but let's face it... Ben McKay is no star worthy of Pick 3. He was selected at Pick 21 in the 2015 draft and hasn't set the game on fire down back, nor come close to All Australian selection. They should get an early second round pick at best. Clubs should be doing everything they can to retain their free agents.

Edited August 11, 2023 by ignition.

[ElDiablo14 5,002]

It would be interesting to know what are the needs of the team for the near future.

Backline - May's replacement (draft or recruit?)

Midfield - JV replacement (is he 29 next year?), Max replacement (Grundy has 4 years only left)

Forward line - Is JVR our future KPF? Do we still need to recruit a veteran player to support him at least 3 or 4 seasons?

[ElDiablo14 5,002]

3 minutes ago, ignition. said:

Apologies if there is a thread on this already.

All I can say is if big McKay goes to Essendon and the AFL compensate North with a first round pick directly after their current one (pick 3) the system is beyond rigged and manipulated (like the Mac Andrew last minute rule change a few years ago).

I don't blame North for trying, but let's face it... Ben McKay is no star worthy of Pick 3. He was selected at Pick 21 in the 2015 draft and hasn't set the game on fire down back, nor come close to All Australian selection. They should get an early second round pick at best. Clubs should be doing everything they can to retain their free agents.

Maybe they should have a points system based on the market value. There is already a points system for draft picks, shouldn't be hard to crate an equivalency based on contract money value.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,084]

How does North get pick 3 for McKay? He isn't even that good.

[Redleg 41,409]

3 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

How does North get pick 3 for McKay? He isn't even that good.

If the AFL want them to, they will get it.

 

[Lord Travis 10,763]

I'm still holding out hope for Reid. He's the game breaker mid-forward who could have an impact immediately while we're in our premiership window, and then take over the number 1 mantle in a few years as Petracca winds down.

Curtin looks a gun, but he'll go before our pick 4, and I'd rather Reid at 1 if we trade up.

Not sold on Duursma with pick 4. Looks very good as a half forward type, but was disappointing in the midfield this season. His stocks dropped this year as recruiters were hoping to see him take his game to the next level in the midfield and it didn't happen. Has been great since moving forward again though. Questions around his competitiveness and ball winning ability up the ground, and IMO you don't use a top 5 pick on a forward flanker.

Sanders looks the goods, but will likely get handed to North through NGA rule change cheating by the AFL. It's absurd that clubs aren't allowed to match bids on NGA prospects before pick 40... but the AFL will just make an exception and hand him to the Roos! 

Not sold on Mckerchers ceiling. He's talented for sure, but he projects as more of a smaller running type rather than a game breaking match changer that you'd hope for with a top 5 pick. Could be wrong, but not convinced he'll be a star.

Watson is a real goer and would be awesome paired with Kozzie up forward or to allow Kozzie to move more into the midfield. He looks a good option to me, but it would mean we have some really really short players on the list.

Ultimate I'll support whoever becomes a demon, but I'm hoping for Reid. A Reid & Petracca combo is a hell of a fantasy!

[Adam The God 30,403]

3 hours ago, Redleg said:

Why would they do that when North at least would give them 2 and more to get Reid and then they get Curtin and more.

Because North might go for Curtin before Reid as well... they are likely to have a CHB need.

[Romey 168]

With GWS rumoured to be considering a salary dump with Nick Haynes, I wonder if we could accomodate taking him and their top draft pick off their hands? (Like the Cats did with Jack Bowes last year.)

If we could find the $1.2m required for the final year of his contract, we’d get an 192cm All Australian defender to free up Petty to go forward, and pick 8 to package with pick 5  for pick 1 from West Coast to get Harley Reid. This allows Patracca to play forward more.

Haynes is 31 and his existing contract back-ended so his ongoing salary probably more like $600k at a guess.

Surely something worth looking at if Grundy leaves and others retire.

[John Demonic 5,850]

On 8/11/2023 at 5:59 AM, Lord Travis said:

 A Reid & Petracca combo is a hell of a fantasy!

 

[layzie 33,989]

1 hour ago, John Demonic said:

 

One of the better tissue boxes I've seen..

[Sydee 4,529]

On 8/11/2023 at 11:47 AM, ignition. said:

Apologies if there is a thread on this already.

All I can say is if big McKay goes to Essendon and the AFL compensate North with a first round pick directly after their current one (pick 3) the system is beyond rigged and manipulated (like the Mac Andrew last minute rule change a few years ago). If it goes through, count us out of the Reid race and rub salt into the wound by diluting our draft pick as a consequence of losing Jackson.

I don't blame North for trying, but let's face it... Ben McKay is no star worthy of Pick 3. He was selected at Pick 21 in the 2015 draft and hasn't set the game on fire down back, nor come close to All Australian selection. They should get an early second round pick at best. Clubs should be doing everything they can to retain their free agents.

Agree that McKay is not worth anything like pick 3 - can you even begin to imagine the absolute meltdown on this site if we traded a pick 3 for him - OMG

If his draft number when selected had any relevance to his value now we should be looking at moving Josh Schache on for a low first rounder - Hah !

[manny100 1,594]

North have stocked up with kids in recent drafts. They need experienced players. If they let Mckay go they are crazy - they can match an offer. Our first priority to get up the ladder was recruit mids then May and Lever as backs.

The AFL know more kids are not the answer. They need to retain McKay get a couple of experienced players in either via trade or UFA etc.

The AFL will likely allow North to prelist a couple of non AFL listed players.

[Ouch! 2,266]

4 hours ago, Sydee said:

Agree that McKay is not worth anything like pick 3 - can you even begin to imagine the absolute meltdown on this site if we traded a pick 3 for him - OMG

If his draft number when selected had any relevance to his value now we should be looking at moving Josh Schache on for a low first rounder - Hah !

Nothing matters except the dollars for the contract that he goes elsewhere for.  If it's the 800k+ per season that some people are suggesting (which is laughable) then he could be the pick after the Nth first round pick.
That said, I don't think that the AFL 'formula' has done a pick like this for some time, possibly since we got our pick for Frawley, I think the best compensation has been end of 1st round, but not super sure on that.

Interestingly heard someone say on SEN today that the Ryley Sanders NGIT bid might be granted to Nth by the AFL, but Nth would still have to bid, and use the appropriate draft pick to secure him (aka current F/S rules, rather than academy rules.) Still not a fan of giving them the free hit. 

[old55 23,687]

8 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Nothing matters except the dollars for the contract that he goes elsewhere for.  If it's the 800k+ per season that some people are suggesting (which is laughable) then he could be the pick after the Nth first round pick.
That said, I don't think that the AFL 'formula' has done a pick like this for some time, possibly since we got our pick for Frawley, I think the best compensation has been end of 1st round, but not super sure on that.

Interestingly heard someone say on SEN today that the Ryley Sanders NGIT bid might be granted to Nth by the AFL, but Nth would still have to bid, and use the appropriate draft pick to secure him (aka current F/S rules, rather than academy rules.) Still not a fan of giving them the free hit. 

It's dollars and age that are taken into account so the fact that McKay is 25 works in North's favour.

The points bidding rules are exactly the same for Academy and F/S - 20% discount on the points.  The only difference is that teams other than GC, Brisbane, Sydney and GWS can't cover a bid on Academy players in the first 40 picks. That's the rule North has to get broken (if Sanders is added to their Academy)

[Ouch! 2,266]

5 minutes ago, old55 said:

It's dollars and age that are taken into account so the fact that McKay is 25 works in North's favour.

The points bidding rules are exactly the same for Academy and F/S - 20% discount on the points.  The only difference is that teams other than GC, Brisbane, Sydney and GWS can't cover a bid on Academy players in the first 40 picks. That's the rule North has to get broken (if Sanders is added to their Academy)

Article below suggests that for Nth to get a first round, the player has to fall within top 5% of rankings, across the AFL. Any club willing to pay that much for McKay is nuts! 
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-trades-2020-free-agency-compensation-formula-how-does-it-work-brad-crouch-adelaide-st-kilda-free-agents-details/news-story/538e998849aa96d921d7da512ff8793e

Age is a factor too as you say.

 

[tilly18 289]

26 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Nothing matters except the dollars for the contract that he goes elsewhere for.  If it's the 800k+ per season that some people are suggesting (which is laughable) then he could be the pick after the Nth first round pick.
That said, I don't think that the AFL 'formula' has done a pick like this for some time, possibly since we got our pick for Frawley, I think the best compensation has been end of 1st round, but not super sure on that.

Interestingly heard someone say on SEN today that the Ryley Sanders NGIT bid might be granted to Nth by the AFL, but Nth would still have to bid, and use the appropriate draft pick to secure him (aka current F/S rules, rather than academy rules.) Still not a fan of giving them the free hit. 

There has been a few. Daniher and Lynch.

The interesting one is Zac Williams who the Giants got a first round pick reportedly based on the 700k a year the Blues offered him.

I can see North getting a pick straight after their first natural pick here.

[old55 23,687]

3 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

Article below suggests that for Nth to get a first round, the player has to fall within top 5% of rankings, across the AFL. Any club willing to pay that much for McKay is nuts! 
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-trades-2020-free-agency-compensation-formula-how-does-it-work-brad-crouch-adelaide-st-kilda-free-agents-details/news-story/538e998849aa96d921d7da512ff8793e

Age is a factor too as you say.

 

I think they'll get an exemption on covering a bid for Sanders inside pick 40 and get an end of 1st round compensation for McKay.

I think there might be a riot from the other clubs if they get the Sanders exemption AND pick 3.

Edited August 18, 2023 by old55

[Diamond_Jim 12,624]

21 hours ago, Romey said:

With GWS rumoured to be considering a salary dump with Nick Haynes, I wonder if we could accomodate taking him and their top draft pick off their hands? (Like the Cats did with Jack Bowes last year.)

If we could find the $1.2m required for the final year of his contract, we’d get an 192cm All Australian defender to free up Petty to go forward, and pick 8 to package with pick 5  for pick 1 from West Coast to get Harley Reid. This allows Patracca to play forward more.

Haynes is 31 and his existing contract back-ended so his ongoing salary probably more like $600k at a guess.

Surely something worth looking at if Grundy leaves and others retire.

We'd effectively be paying around $500k for pick 8... certainly worth considering

Have not watched GWS in a while. How is Haynes playing these days.

Pity he's not a forward

[tilly18 289]

6 minutes ago, old55 said:

I think they'll get an exemption on covering a bid for Sanders inside pick 40 and get an end of 1st round compensation for McKay.

I think there might be a riot from the other clubs if they get the Sanders exemption AND pick 3.

I think giving exclusive access to an NGA inside the top 40 to a non expansion team is a dangerous action. (If I have read what you are saying correctly)

[Romey 168]

50 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

We'd effectively be paying around $500k for pick 8... certainly worth considering

Have not watched GWS in a while. How is Haynes playing these days.

Pity he's not a forward

Not sure, but here is the statistical comparison of Haynes this year to Petty last year. 

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by Romey