Christian Petracca a chance to win the 2023 Brownlow Medal?

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,766]

47 minutes ago, Lexinator said:

Rivers real stiff not to get any votes.

Any more stiff he'd be 6 feet under.

[Garbo 1,559]

Did some numbers on votes vs top 8 sides some interesting outcomes

Neale 14 votes in 10 games

Bont 9 in 10

Daicos 6 in 9 that he played (polled in just 2 games)

Trac 12 in 10

Bont given dogs lost a lot vs top 8 that’s not bad for him but Daicos really loads up vs the weaker teams and really stuggled vs top 8 sides while Neale played better vs top 8. Might be something to keep an eye on in the grand final.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Garbo

[nedleg 177]

5 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I had to check that Bont actually hadn't won a Brownlow, because I'd sworn he had.

You can add Max and Clarry to that list that should have won one.

Me too. It's absolutely nuts that Bont hasn't won one. Goes to show what it ain't worth.

[Clintosaurus 7,926]

7 hours ago, YearOfTheDees said:

You can understand one Ump getting it wrong but we have four talking together about the game.

They can't umpire properly so getting the votes right be impossible.

[Brownie 6,066]

7 hours ago, YearOfTheDees said:

I like the idea of the coaches doing the voting, not sure how it would work but it might stop BS like tonight.

 

 

How about the BT Brownlow medal?

All votes awarded by BT during his roaming Brian segment.

If BT didn't commentate the game, it's probably not worth awarding votes because it obviously isn't a BLOCKBUSTER!

Has a nice ring to it.

He could compare the whole night and highlights could all be him commentating passages of play.

It could have you on the edge of your seat as BT often gets players names wrong.

Channel 7 knows footy better than we do.

[Brownie 6,066]

7 hours ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

 

Off-topic I know, but honestly it would be so awesome and so appreciated if more Dees fans could come onboard for the girls. Even if you’ve never paid much attention to the W comp you should consider it. Now’s the best time, too. This team is an absolute joy to watch. They’re in scintillating form and the vibe at matches is always good. There’s six H&A rounds remaining, even if you just attend only one, that’d be great. And for those who don’t have W membership, a ticket is only $10.

It's been the best medicine watching the women over the last few weeks.

They're playing fantastic footy and their skills are better and better every year.

What a team.

[spirit of norm smith 16,615]

Lachie Neale. I watch a lot of Lions games and he had a good year but not a Brownlow year.  
The umps mustn’t know any other lions players.  Maybe McCluggage (3 votes) is too hard to spell or it’s too early for Ashcroft.  Dunkley (4 votes) had some great games but didn’t poll well by comparison. It’s bizarre.  
 

ps. Neale didn’t make All Australian.  They must be poor judges of footy. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by spirit of norm smith
O

[Jaded No More 68,975]

Sad to see the vitriol directed at Neale online. Like he made the umpires give him votes. Really pathetic. 

[Redleg 41,944]

16 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Sad to see the vitriol directed at Neale online. Like he made the umpires give him votes. Really pathetic. 

I don’t think people are blaming Neale, he is just the name used this year to show the umpires often get it very wrong.

Btw, sorry to name him, but Horne-Francis is one of the worst examples ever of umpires getting it badly wrong. 3 votes for a 13 possession game, with 4 clangers, several turnovers and only a couple of short passes, with no score involvement and terrible game rating.

[BDA 23,017]

Midfielders award adjudicated by amateurs. Rapidly losing relevancy 

[58er 6,812]

On 8/26/2023 at 10:44 AM, Fanatique Demon said:

I think Trac’s form has dropped off for the last couple of weeks, and with that, his chances of the Brownlow. 

Without Trac we would have been lucky to beat Swans in last round.

He Didn't get votes on the end Gulden 3 for 42 disposals with Fritta and 5 goals the 2 botes and not sure of the 1 vote but not Trac.

To be fair instead of Clarry sideswiping Trac for votes Jack did a great job but thoroughly deserved his top 10 finish. His best season yet and I think the way our Coaches vote he will win the Bluey this year. They vote according to roles played and their instructions. 

Either will be a worthy winner whoever tops the Players Night of Nights Awards. 

[Green Demon 822]

9 hours ago, Return to Glory said:

Maybe GD. I'm just suggesting that an umpire likely has more credibility and moral fortitude than some narcissistic vanker from AFL House. 

If it is rigged, they will pick a credible winner. So many stats point to Neale being the wrong person. A dozen of the players that finished below him would have been more credible. I would rather they fixed it that one of them, even a Daicos, won.

[WheeloRatings 1,164]

 

My predicted leaderboard wasn't too bad but there are a few clear standouts.

Looking at the largest difference between actual and predicted votes, it looks like Cripps stole votes off Cerra, Neale stole votes off Dunkley, and Crouch and Steele stole votes Marshall. And I'm a bit surprised that Oliver only polled 6 votes.

 

 

 

[Jibroni 5,035]

I'm sure the boys at Sportbet will be liking there chops this morning, very few would have predicted Lochie Neale.

Would be nice to have coaches/captains do the voting but there is no chance of that happening.

[WheeloRatings 1,164]

37 minutes ago, BDA said:

Midfielders award adjudicated by amateurs. Rapidly losing relevancy 

I may be wrong, but I'm not sure anyone could officiate a match well AND analyse the game to identify the best players on the ground. Umpiring AFL would be an incredibly difficult thing to do. I'm sure the last thing they're thinking about is how well players played or how impactful they were.

I would rather a panel of expert analysts assigning the votes (and I don't mean media types like BT 😂).

[gs77 4,517]

9 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

So the other anomalies here:

We have the best backline in the league and they only get 4 votes between them (8 at the very generous end if any of Gus's backline work counts).  Out of a total of around 90 votes.

Jake Lever gets 0 votes?

Jake Bowey 0 votes?

To be fair, in how many games do you think Bowey was amongst the 3 top players on the ground across both teams? I can't think of any. Lever probably stiff, but there's maybe only a couple of games he probably could have polled in, but then there's his kicking which may have let him down.

[Green Demon 822]

15 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

 

My predicted leaderboard wasn't too bad but there are a few clear standouts.

Looking at the largest difference between actual and predicted votes, it looks like Cripps stole votes off Cerra, Neale stole votes off Dunkley, and Crouch and Steele stole votes Marshall. And I'm a bit surprised that Oliver only polled 6 votes.

 

 

 

I appreciate your analysis. It may have an obvious answer, but my question is, how do you calculate the expected votes for a player? Thanks.

[Demonstone 23,338]

Anybody else notice this last night?

 

[WheeloRatings 1,164]

3 minutes ago, Green Demon said:

I appreciate your analysis. It may have an obvious answer, but my question is, how do you calculate the expected votes for a player? Thanks.

It is based on coaches votes and a range of game statistics, like disposals, contested possessions, goals, supercoach score and a number of other stats. The model calculates how much these have contributed to Brownlow votes historically from 2012-2022 and is then applied to 2023 data. All the relevant stats are combined (with a weighted sum) for all players in a given match to obtain an overall score for each player. The votes are then assigned based on these scores.

[gs77 4,517]

6 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

Anybody else notice this last night?

 

Yes! That was the night's 2nd highlight behind Gawn's suit jacket pocket embroidery, "Christian Petracca 3 votes".

[Guest]

1 minute ago, gs77 said:

Yes! That was the night's 2nd highlight behind Gawn's suit jacket pocket embroidery, "Christian Petracca 3 votes".

[poita 3,908]

No doubt Lachie Neale is an excellent player, who plays consistently well in the midfield of a team that wins a lot of games. That is the formula for Brownlow success right there. Does he deserve to be a two time Brownlow winner? Maybe not yet, but if he guides Brisbane to a premiership this week, his standing will rise significantly in the views of many.

As others have said, I find it incredible that Neale gets 31 votes when Dunkley and McCluggage get 7 between them. He and Cripps simply monopolise the votes from their teams, whereas we split our votes every year. 

I'm guessing this is the fourth year in a row where our two highest vote getters are the highest in the competition - Oliver / Petracca in previous years, Petracca / Viney this year.

Interestingly the Brownlow top 6 finishers are the same as the top 6 in the coaches votes, just in a different order. 

[leave it to deever 17,591]

1 hour ago, Jaded No More said:

Sad to see the vitriol directed at Neale online. Like he made the umpires give him votes. Really pathetic. 

He was actually quite self deprecating about it.

[Guest]

Good on Jack for receiving 24 votes, every one of them well-deserved. Interestingly, he wasn’t invited to attend last night. Gussy was but he blew it off and Jack went in his place. 

[Demon Disciple 12,452]

9 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Gussy was but he blew it off 

And who could blame him.