POSTGAME: Rd 09 vs Hawthorn

[DeeZee 7,378]

I feel Jordons not really taking his chances.

Played a half yesterday was was fairly pedestrian.

[demon3165 2,718]

1 hour ago, djr said:

Yeah I agree. You watch next week if we lose to Port. There are a number of posters just waiting to let it rip saying I told you so.

Depends on how you see the game, or should posters just write beautiful posts all the time because they are melbourne supporters? 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

Melbourne win by: 

1-30 Phew, embarrassing we nearly lost that one, we are so lucky.

31-60 Uninspiring, underwhelming.

61+ Other teams were Witches hats.

I just think it’s a bloody tough competition and opponents will get a roll on at some stage of the game. It’s inevitable. We were good enough to not let the Hawthorn momentum cause any major concern because the damage was already done.
 

For clarity the bottom 3.

Hawks average losing margin is 47.4, Eagles is 52.5 and North is 50. 

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Good win, just wish we'd stop fumbling so much and handballing to people's feet.

Best game Petty had played as a forward.

Rivers is a gun.

JV7 bulldozing is a sight to behold.

Pig is still a great player.

PA game will be heart in the throat stuff I reckon.

[Gator 17,332]

Petracca was best on ground.

Petracca had 5 goal assists.  To put that in perspective, Joel Selwood's career high from his 355 games is 4.  And we all know how Geelong liked sharing it around in their dominant years.

Dustin Martin's career high is also 4.

None of the other 45 players who took the field had more than one.

Petracca also had an equal high clearance game, was second in contested possessions with 15, had a game high score involvements (12 - next best 9), and the most metres gained of any player.

[Robbie22 25]

21 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

I feel Jordons not really taking his chances.

Played a half yesterday was was fairly pedestrian.

He isn't flashy but does what he does well on most occasions - clean by hand and foot, strong over the footy, smart around goals. Looks to be being seen/developed as more of a mid and we all know there is a long queue there. Got a good footy brain - does little things that perhaps go unnoticed in the flow of the game. Wouldn't be surprised if he is chased by one of the cellar dwellers looking for a solid, big bodied mid - but hope we keep him on. Better value than Harmes??

[Jaded No More 68,903]

13 minutes ago, AzzKikA said:

Good win, just wish we'd stop fumbling so much and handballing to people's feet.

Best game Petty had played as a forward.

Rivers is a gun.

JV7 bulldozing is a sight to behold.

Pig is still a great player.

PA game will be heart in the throat stuff I reckon.

The temperature dropped really dramatically between the first and second quarter and there was a bit of dew. It made the ball and the ground slippery. 
I think that contributed to the fumbling. 
 

On JVR you can just tell from the small bits of play that he’s going to be a player. He has such a good attitude. He loves to compete and isn’t shy about asserting himself in a contest. 
He played higher up yesterday when Petty was off and did well to position himself in dangerous spots. Finished with 14 touches and 5 marks plus a goal. That’s a really good performance for a kid in his 7th game who just went through the week from hell. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

25 minutes ago, DeeZee said:

I feel Jordons not really taking his chances.

Played a half yesterday was was fairly pedestrian.

I reckon you're being a bit tough on him. He had 10 possessions and 210m gained. He's not a showy player. Just plays his role and contributes to team performance.

[Jaded No More 68,903]

3 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I reckon you're being a bit tough on him. He had 10 possessions and 210m gained. He's not a showy player. Just plays his role and contributes to team performance.

I think that sadly that’s half the problem. He isn’t a showy player. He plays a disciplined team role which is very important but leaves him always competing with others for a spot. 
I love JJ and I think he has a lot to give but when you’re playing in a side blessed with so so much talent you need to stand out.
Look how good Chandler is and it took him 3 years to get consistent game time. It’s the downside of playing in a good team. 

If JJ played for Hawthorn yesterday he’d be in their top best 5 players comfortably. 

Edited May 14, 2023 by Jaded No More

[DeeZee 7,378]

Bailey Laurie hasn’t put a foot wrong and has been in A1 form all year.

Runs really hard from contest to contest and has sublime skill.

Small in stature , but pick of the subs so far for mine.

Melksham offers a bit of X factor as a sub as well, and can hurt them on the scoreboard

[BW511 2,668]

3 minutes ago, Robbie22 said:

He isn't flashy but does what he does well on most occasions - clean by hand and foot, strong over the footy, smart around goals. Looks to be being seen/developed as more of a mid and we all know there is a long queue there. Got a good footy brain - does little things that perhaps go unnoticed in the flow of the game. Wouldn't be surprised if he is chased by one of the cellar dwellers looking for a solid, big bodied mid - but hope we keep him on. Better value than Harmes??

100%. JJ would be a regular 25 possession player if he played week in and week out and he’s very, very good defensively.

He’s really dependable and consistent, without the flashes that Sparrow or Harmes might have.

If it were my team, he’d be the fourth mid behind Clarry, Trac and Viney. 

Thinking on it more, I wanted someone to get me to finals over the course of the entire year, It’s JJ. If I needed a moment that could change the course of a final in one play, maybe a big tackle or bump from Sparrow or a lucky break from Harmes.

[rpfc 28,383]

9 hours ago, bandicoot said:

I think people like to complain. They forget that we are watching a team that would match it with any side in the modern era.

The team has 10 genuine AA players. 

This might never be replicated again in our lifetimes.

make the most of it. Cherish every moment 

 

And get to the games.

@Sydney_Demon - most Melbourne supporters have little experience following a good team let alone a great one. For those that AFL is their only footy exposure - it’s understandable if not also boorish and annoying that a ‘bad’ 10 min period colours the game for them.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

8 hours ago, bandicoot said:

I think people like to complain. They forget that we are watching a team that would match it with any side in the modern era.The team has 10 genuine AA players. 
This might never be replicated again in our lifetimes.
Make the most of it. Cherish every moment.

I respect people's right to complain. I also love the information posters bring to this site, and the trouble posters go to to source that information. I don't expect everyone to have the same take on everything that has happened during the  game. It's just sometimes I get frustrated that comments get thrown out there that IMO don't match reality. Things are never as bad as we think, nor as good. I don't cherish every moment (e.g. hard to cherish the first half of the Prelim agaimst West Coast in 2018) but I think it's good to put these poor moments into perspective (e.g. most of the 2018 season leading up to that match).

8 hours ago, picket fence said:

So would have Brown.... Even more so had he played. I'll say it again Petty is not and will never be a forward! IF we are to be a flag chance BBB has to be our key forward. I'm also not sold on Van Rooyen yet either!

Well, Petty had 8 possessions, 6 marks and kicked 2 goals in a half of footy. I'm not saying that conclusively proves he will make it as a forward but hardly evidence that he never will make it. Who knows what BBB would have done? If you like to think he would have kicked 10 that's your prerogative. 

Both JVR & Petty are works in progress. The fact that TMac was listed as an emergency ahead of BBB probably says something. It would appear that JVR & Petty are our preferred options at this stage. They both have upsides. I don't think anyone can legitimately make a claim right now that BBB/TMacs' best years are ahead of them.

3 hours ago, loges said:

Lucky his second half was better than his first.

As others have posted, we now have 2 specialist wingers and it's actually impossible for both to star on any given day because you can't play down both wings simultaneously. Langdon is not going too have the year he had last year for that reason. Melbourne is a better side because we have Hunter & Langdon playing. One get's locked down and you have another option. Hunter's wing got used more 1st half, Langdon's the 2nd. Also, the stats don't recognise unrewarded running for either player but it's important for defensive pressure & attacking options. 

3 hours ago, loges said:

The one against May was blatant 

I think generally backs get a bad deal compared to forwards. What I think we all want is consistency. If anything, I would prefer backs being favoured because in the back frees paid to forwards result in sometimes soft/easy goals. The same applies to frees not paid against forwards.

2 hours ago, BDA said:

May said after the game the Hawks jumped us after half time. Thats how it looked to me as well. Those 3 quick goals fired them up and got them into the contest for the quarter. Outside of that purple patch they were very ordinary. We were pretty much doing as we pleased. A very straight forward win.

I agree with you about the 3rd Quarter. Hawthorn came out hard and had those 3 goals on the board before we had time to react. To our credit, that didn't become a 6 or 7 goal run and we re-grouped. Similarly, Hawthorn kicked the 1st goal of the last quarter but Melbourne then went on to kick the last 4 goals of the match.

I didn't think Hawthorn were ordinary. They were outclassed but their pressure was generally very good. My view is that the era of regular 100 point wins is largely over. Even undermanned teams are well-coached and have structures in place to limit losses and in most games there are short stretches where the losing teams kick a few goals in a row.

2 hours ago, loges said:

The worst I've heard ever was Dunstall last week, how was he yesterday?

Dunstall was definitely better than last week, but I can't understand why any ex-player with obvious affiliations should be commenting on games involving those teams. Obviously that applies to Garry Lyon as well.

[layzie 33,793]

Big game next week. Regular business resumes.

[binman 42,896]

13 hours ago, Sydney_Demon said:

FGS, Hawthorn kicked 7 goals and 3 of them were in about 3 minutes at the start of the 3rd Quarter. We won by 9 goals. Hawthorn played about as well as they could have. We drew with Hawthorn in our Premiership year.

I'm amazed about the negativity. The main reason I'm surprised is I would have thought all of you would already have slit your wrists (and therefore not have been around to currently post on Demonland) somtime during the 11 year period we didn't make the finals (2007-17). I avoid going into Demonland following a loss because it would appear some have absolutely no perspective. Maybe I'll have to avoid going into the the site until we win another Premiership (but maybe not even then because we won't have played well enough or won by a sufficiently large margin).

Too bloody right.

I have made this point many times, so apologies for the repetition.

I'm a punter, but I'm not trying to promote punting.

Forget tipsters and so called experts, the line in football betting is by far the best representation of the relative strength of two opponents and the best most accurate predictor of the likely winning and losing margins. It the closest thing to an objective prediction there is.

Thousands of individuals all making an assessment on a likely margin. But not pontificating - putting their money where their mouth is. Millions of it.

And that includes professional punters, whose money makes up the majority of the betting pool and who only remain pros by being correct more often than not.

The line in our game was 42 points. We almost had that covered by the end of the first quarter. 

Now, some might say we should have therefore won by 100 plus points and smashed past the line.

But that is not how footy works. It is rarely so linear.

Take last night's blues dogs game. I backed the dogs to win (it was even money, so the line was 0.5 points).

I also backed them to win by 40 plus points.

Halfway thru the third when the dogs went up by 5 goals and the blues having only scored 1 goal, it looked for all the world like I was going  to win both bets - certainly the win.

But I know from bitter experience that the more likely scenario is it would go back towards the line. Which it did.

And so it was in our game.

Having backed the dees at the 42 point line, the bet was seemingly in the bag by half time. But at the start of the last quarter it was well and truly back in play. In fact we had fallen behind it.

We ended up beating the line by 2 goals - which is statistically significant.

But more the point, leaving aside people's 'feel' for how the game should have played out after half time, it indicates that we surpassed the well informed market prediction of this game.

In other words, people's feeling about the game notwithstanding, it was an impressive win - albeit not the greatest watch.

It's worth lining up pre game predictions on this site with post game lamentations.

Few would have been unhappy with a 54 point win. Some might have even worried we would take them too easily and have a shock loss or a scrappy win.

But because we so thoroughly thrashed them up to half time some of the post match commentary suggests the second half was a failure because we didn't double our half time lead or run away with it.

Poor in the second half, didn't keep going, exposed our issues, we get smashed in clearances, how could we let the hawks mids dominate yada yada yada.

So a 54 point win suddenly becomes a disappointment.

But all that happened was the score reverted to the line.

As goody said in his presser, it is not possible to keep an AFL team scoreless  - every team will have a period in a given match where they get the momentum.

And interestingly, we actually only had two less scoring shots in the second half than we did in the first half.

Honestly, some people need to get a grip. 

We have had a VERY tough fixture in terms of travel and breaks between games.

And we have gone into two games losing a critical, senior defender right before the game - not to mention losing our most important player for three of our nine games.

Seven wins from nine games, with a percentage of 143 - 22 points ahead of the media's darling the pies, all while still experimenting with roles, structures and systems and not looking for perfection.

By any measure - well except those used by some dees fans - we are travelling very well.

And whilst we travel on a six day break this week, after that we have three consecutive games at the MCG, the bye then play the cats down in Geelong.

Meaning we stay in Victoria until round 16 at the beginning of July. So, six weeks without having to travel.

The hardest part of the home and away season is behind us after the Port game.

Edited May 14, 2023 by binman

[BDA 22,743]

16 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I respect people's right to complain. I also love the information posters bring to this site, and the trouble posters go to to source that information. I don't expect everyone to have the same take on everything that has happened during the  game. It's just sometimes I get frustrated that comments get thrown out there that IMO don't match reality. Things are never as bad as we think, nor as good. I don't cherish every moment (e.g. hard to cherish the first half of the Prelim agaimst West Coast in 2018) but I think it's good to put these poor moments into perspective (e.g. most of the 2018 season leading up to that match).

Well, Petty had 8 possessions, 6 marks and kicked 2 goals in a half of footy. I'm not saying that conclusively proves he will make it as a forward but hardly evidence that he never will make it. Who knows what BBB would have done? If you like to think he would have kicked 10 that's your prerogative. 

Both JVR & Petty are works in progress. The fact that TMac was listed as an emergency ahead of BBB probably says something. It would appear that JVR & Petty are our preferred options at this stage. They both have upsides. I don't think anyone can legitimately make a claim right now that BBB/TMacs' best years are ahead of them.

As others have posted, we now have 2 specialist wingers and it's actually impossible for both to star on any given day because you can't play down both wings simultaneously. Langdon is not going too have the year he had last year for that reason. Melbourne is a better side because we have Hunter & Langdon playing. One get's locked down and you have another option. Hunter's wing got used more 1st half, Langdon's the 2nd. Also, the stats don't recognise unrewarded running for either player but it's important for defensive pressure & attacking options. 

I think generally backs get a bad deal compared to forwards. What I think we all want is consistency. If anything, I would prefer backs being favoured because in the back frees paid to forwards result in sometimes soft/easy goals. The same applies to frees not paid against forwards.

I agree with you about the 3rd Quarter. Hawthorn came out hard and had those 3 goals on the board before we had time to react. To our credit, that didn't become a 6 or 7 goal run and we re-grouped. Similarly, Hawthorn kicked the 1st goal of the last quarter but Melbourne then went on to kick the last 4 goals of the match.

I didn't think Hawthorn were ordinary. They were outclassed but their pressure was generally very good. My view is that the era of regular 100 point wins is largely over. Even undermanned teams are well-coached and have structures in place to limit losses and in most games there are short stretches where the losing teams kick a few goals in a row.

Dunstall was definitely better than last week, but I can't understand why any ex-player with obvious affiliations should be commenting on games involving those teams. Obviously that applies to Garry Lyon as well.

Fair call. They did bring effort.

there should never be 100 point wins. Only happens if teams stop trying and capitulate. When we played north they weren’t trying and only for a late flurry of goals in junk time we would have won the game by the tonne. 

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

21 minutes ago, binman said:

Too bloody right.

I have made this point many times, so apologies for the repetition.

I'm a punter, but I'm not trying to promote pnting.

Forget tipsters and so called experts, the line in football betting is by far the best representation of the the relative strength of two opponents and the best most accurate predictor of the likely winning and losing margins.

Thousands of individuals all making an assessment on a likely margin. But not pontificating - putting their money where their mouth is. Millions of it.

And that includes professional punters, whose money makes uo the majority of the betting pool and who only remain pros by being g correct more often than not.

The line in our game was 42 points. We almost had that coveted by the end of the first quarter. 

Now, some might say we' should therefore have won by 100 points and smashed past the line.

But that is not how footy works. It is rarely so linear.

Take last night's blues dogs game. I backed the dogs to win (it was even money, so the line was 0.5 points).

I also backed them to win by 40 plus points.

Halfway thru the third when the dogs went up by 5 goals and the blues having only scored 1 goal, it looked all the world like I was going  to win both bets - certainly the win.

But I know with bitter experience that the more likely scenario is it would go back towards the line. Which of course it did.

And so it was in our game. Having backed the dees at the 42 point line the bet was seemingly in the bag by half time. But at the start of the last quarter it was well and truly back in plsy. In fact we had fallen behind it.

We ended up beating the line by 2 goals - which is statistically significant.

But more the point, leaving aside people's 'feel' for how the game should have after half time, it indicates that we surpassed the well informed market prediction of this game.

In other words, people's feeling about the game notwithstanding, it was an impressive win - albeit not the greatest watch.

It's worth lining up pre game predictions on this site with post game lamentations.

Few would have been unhappy with a 54 point win. Some might have even worried we would take them too easily and have a shock loss or a scrappy win.

But because we so thoroughly thrashed them up to half time some of the post match commentary suggests the second half was a failure because we didn't double our half time lead or run away with it.

Poor in the second half, didn't keep going, exposed our issues, we get smashed in clearnces, how could we let the hawks mids dominate yada yada yada.

So a 54 point win suddenly becomes a disappointment.

But all that happened was the score reverted to the line.

As goody said in his presser, it is not possible to keep an afl teamscoreless  - every team will have a period in a given match where they get the momentum.

And interestingly we actually only had two less scoring shots in the second half than we did in the first half.

Honestly, some people need to get a grip. 

We have had a VERY tough fixture in terms of travel and breaks between games.

And we have gone into two games losing a critical, senior defender right before the game - not to mention losing our most important player for tree of our 9 games.

Seven wins from nine games, with a percentage of 143, 22 points ahead of the media's darling the pies, all while still experimenting with roles, structures and sytems.

By any measure - well except those used by some dees fans - we are travelling very well.

And whilst we travel on a six day break this week, after that we have three consecutive games at the MCG,  the bye then play the cats down there.

Meaning we stay in Victoria until round 16 at the beginning of July. So 6 weeks without having to travel.

The hardest part of the home and away season is behind us after the Port game.

I agree with you about the betting market except I think it got it badly wrong with the Swans-Fremantle game (and those Demonlanders who pointed this out pre-match I hope you made some money). The line of course is more meaningful than the odds as the odds are always understated since they include betting agencys' profit margins (roughly 5% in a 2-horse  race).

I think we are all guilty of simply extrapolating early leads into massive wins and this simply isn't how it works. There's always going to be reversion to the mean. This of course works in both directions. Similarly it's so easy to look at poor results or great wins and say that is representative of how the team is travelling whereas in reality it's just one game and is not necessarily representative of anything. Form is always going to fluctuate, both for Melbourne and whoever their opponent is.

 

[Dingo 1,059]

1 hour ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I reckon you're being a bit tough on him. He had 10 possessions and 210m gained. He's not a showy player. Just plays his role and contributes to team performance.

What’s this “210 m gained” stat ? Another American sport stat creeping into the game of Aussie Rules ?

[Adam The God 30,220]

16 hours ago, A F said:

How do you figure that? We won CP +14.

We've turned ourselves into a team that can win multiple ways. We win on turnover.  Check out the thread on it. 

We also win from scores at stoppages. We were 4th for scores from stoppages heading into the weekend.

We also won stoppages by +3, so not really sure why some people keep bringing up this idea of needing to do better from stoppage. 

Not only are we doing well in this department, when every side in the comp knows this is our strength, but we are experimenting with personnel and clearly resting/protecting our prime movers.

Edited May 14, 2023 by A F

[leave it to deever 17,511]

3 hours ago, loges said:

The worst I've heard ever was Dunstall last week, how was he yesterday?

It was a hawks game so he wasn't much better.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

14 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Yes. Unfortunately he can't play at both ends bin!

I reckon he can Uncle, i think hell be a swinger.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,237]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I reckon he can Uncle, i think hell be a swinger.

You're correct of course Wadda , however, foe the context of that particular post, I might have added " at the same time" !

[deanox 9,912]

12 minutes ago, Dingo said:

What’s this “210 m gained” stat ? Another American sport stat creeping into the game of Aussie Rules ?

It's been a pretty useful metric used for the last 5+ years at least. If you haven't seen it, it might be worth brushing up on some of the currently used statistical measures.

While metres gained has its limitations, it shows his disposals aren't all backwards passes, short chips sideways or handball.

[djr 1,445]

1 hour ago, demon3165 said:

Depends on how you see the game, or should posters just write beautiful posts all the time because they are melbourne supporters? 

Of course not, but it appears that the usual suspects are only capable of making negative comments on how we play. There is little balance. Typically, there is no recognition of how well the opposition plays against us or how much pressure the opposition bring to the game. Hawthorn came out strong in the third term, with an impressive pressure rating. Yes, we might have been a little rattled for a short period of time, but to our credit, we were able to reset and finish strong. It happens in every game. Obviously you know this as you are the big picture guy.

 

[D4Life 2,469]

2 hours ago, AzzKikA said:

Good win, just wish we'd stop fumbling so much and handballing to people's feet.

Best game Petty had played as a forward.

Rivers is a gun.

JV7 bulldozing is a sight to behold.

Pig is still a great player.

PA game will be heart in the throat stuff I reckon.

Spot on re players above!

A day where many things were a bit off, but still win by 54, so enjoy it.

We still have a few challenges, but FD are experimenting, Petty was looking really good before he went off and hopefully JVR keeps improving!

It’s only May, we’ve got a few months to perfect our system.

We are in the hunt and that’s the main thing combined with a good injury run, we are as well placed as any team!

Demons a flag in 2023 at the “G”, I’d like to see that!!