Today Carlton tomorrow Collingwood

B: Marchbank, Weitering, Saad

HB: Williams, McGovern, Docherty

C: Acres, Cerra, Walsh

HF: Durdin, C.Curnow, Martin

F: Silvagni, McKay, Motlop

FOLL: Pittonet, Kennedy, Cripps

IC: Fisher, Hewett, Young, Owies

Reserves

B: Hollands, Plowman, Cowan

HB: Newman, Kemp, Boyd

C: Binns, Dow, Cottrell

HF: Fogarty, Lemmey, Cuningham

F: Philip, Mirkov, Honey

FOLL: De Koning, O'Brien, Carroll

IC: Akuei, E.Curnow, N\A

 

Carlton have a spot for a train on player.

Why are we talking about Visy land???

Carton blokes at my work reckon Carlton can straight out win the flag next year.

Carlton's choke against the pies to miss finals was one of the highlights of last season for me. it was hilarious

1 hour ago, BDA said:

Carlton's choke against the pies to miss finals was one of the highlights of last season for me. it was hilarious

reminded me a lot of our choke to miss finals in 2017

their top tier players - cripps, walsh, curnow, weitering, mckay - are superb

their depth is questionable, at best

1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Carton blokes at my work reckon Carlton can straight out win the flag next year.

Straight sets out more like it.

I have a feeling Carlton will be top 4 next year. Much like we finished ninth in 2020, they will rise sharply up the ladder in 2023 and most likely going deep in finals. They have a very good list and are getting better with experience and starting to hit that sweet spot in age profile for their best players Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Cerra, Saad and Williams all between 22-28. 

19 minutes ago, Caligula's cohort said:

I have a feeling Carlton will be top 4 next year. Much like we finished ninth in 2020, they will rise sharply up the ladder in 2023 and most likely going deep in finals. They have a very good list and are getting better with experience and starting to hit that sweet spot in age profile for their best players Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Cerra, Saad and Williams all between 22-28. 

Yeah, assuming a better run with injury there's no good reason why they should miss the finals given their very talented midfield and the fact that they have two coleman medalists in the same forward line.

If they do miss finals, then questions will be asked of Voss.

 

I think Carlton are a big danger in 2023. 

If we look at their 2022 versus our 2017, missing at the death like that spurred us to a preliminary final in 2018.

Huge pro Melbourme crowds in the first two finals clearly helped. Carlton would have a similar set up when they next make finals.

If they get a good run with injury and improve their fitness, they could go all the way.

I hope I'm hopelessly wide of the mark.

Edited December 1, 20222 yr by A F

1 hour ago, whatwhat say what said:

reminded me a lot of our choke to miss finals in 2017

their top tier players - cripps, walsh, curnow, weitering, mckay - are superb

their depth is questionable, at best

Our non-performance against the pies in '17 was very bad. Carlton coughing up a 4-goal lead in the final quarter was as bad as it gets

They'll be a factor next year. Gotta keep Cripps fit but i reckon he'll follow a similar trajectory to Fyfe. Too much damage absorbed when Carlton was a one-man team. Walsh missed a lot last year as well, but I expect him to be fine this year

They'll play finals in 23. Time will tell how deep into September they'll go.

Would be surprised if they're not top 4 next year.

The improvement with Carlton will be quite sharpish and I fully expect them to play finals with top 4 not out of the equation. To go onto flag contention is another thing altogether though, so many players there lacking finals experience makes them more of an unknown. Only time will tell. 

With another preseason by Voss they will improve more.  I see a lot of summer work on fitness and game control for the 4th qtr.  It cost them a lot this year.  Baring some horror run with injury they should play finals. But who drops out to make way for them?  

 

 

3 hours ago, BDA said:

Carlton's choke against the pies to miss finals was one of the highlights of last season for me. it was hilarious

It would have been, but wasn’t for me - that single result cost me winning a tipping comp outright and hundreds of dollars 😑

Screw Carlscum. And the Filth 🤬

I hope they get decimated with injuries. 

personally i think carlton should've been a regular finalist for the last five or so years

they've massively underperformed

methinks that's about to change

Agree wwsw they have too much talent to miss the finals again, they pose a real threat to the competition and will shake up the top eight.!!

I hope they choke again, can't stand their supporters.

Edited December 2, 20222 yr by Dee Zephyr

11 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

 

Today Carlton tomorrow Collingwood

B: Marchbank, Weitering, Saad

HB: Williams, McGovern, Docherty

C: Acres, Cerra, Walsh

HF: Durdin, C.Curnow, Martin

F: Silvagni, McKay, Motlop

FOLL: Pittonet, Kennedy, Cripps

IC: Fisher, Hewett, Young, Owies

 

Out: Marchbank, Owies, Martin
In: Boyd, Hollands, De Koning

 @WERRIDEEI

I have a slightly different starting line-up - though Newman for Williams is an obvious change given the laters' ACL.  

I have Fisher, Hewett and De Koning all in the starting XVIII at the expense of Durdin, Martin and Pittonet. 

 It's probably a case of splitting hairs, but while Durdin was a revelation last year playing 21 games he's still young and could drop off, whereas Fisher played all 22 and was 7th in the B&F (yes- I was surprised too).  

De Koning I think will assume the #1 ruck.  Pittonet was injured, I know, and came back in for the last 2 games of the year at TDs expense – TD is more mobile and has more upside.  I think both will probably play anyway with 5 on the bench now. 

Jack Martin has to be one of the most frustrating footballers on any list - he shows glimpses of his sublime talent, but that's all they are glimpses. He's forever in the medical rooms (38 games in 3 seasons since crossing on big money) and there were 20 other blokes that played more senior games than he did last year.  I’d have Owies and Cottrell (depending on his foot) in ahead of him and Hewett  will definitely be picked before Jack will, but I'll cover more on him a bit later.

So the draw: The Blues play us and the Pies twice - they also have return bouts against, GCS, GWS, Saints and West Coast... on paper at least based on last years form Blues fans would be pretty happy.  It gets even between when you see the full draw.  They've got two 5 day breaks and three 6 day breaks leading into the bye – the rest is very generous particularly as they have big blocks of very winnable games to get on a roll.  If they haven't at least 8 wins on the board by the bye (I think they could go 15-16 wins for the season) the Blues faithful should be baying for Voss' blood. 

1.  So let's start at the coal face.  The contested possession count – this probably reflects not only the game plan of the respective sides, but the way both senior coaches actually played the game back in the day.   Melbourne were the #1 contested possession side last year (3238 in total after round 23) but Carlton was a close second (3200 after round 23).  We had four players get over 200 CP (Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn), Carlton had only two with Cripps and Walsh, but Hewett was 3rd with 190 and missed 7 games (so logically would have likely got over 200 if he'd played every game).  Matt Kennedy had 188 CP but missed 5 matches.  I’m not sure that the title of being the top CP team means that much, and it isn’t the be all and end all (after all Richmond managed three flags being a middle of the road CP side) but it is an indication of how they like to play the game and when the Blues get it right they’re a contender for sure.  For the record the Crows were third, Suns fourth, Lions fifth and Swans sixth.  Geelong ranked 12^thbut all five of their top five CP winners had over 200 CP – so it’s a very uneven spread. 

2.  The midfield.  Walsh injured early hurts, but if he’s managed properly and back to his 2022 form by May/June, then it’s only a minor hiccup.  Winners of Charlie usually struggle to replicate the heights they reached in the previous season, but even given that they can afford a small drop off from Cripps if they manage to get 20+ games out of two of their less high profile, but absolutely vital midfield generals. There’s a reason why Carlton were flying early in 2022 and it was off the back of career highs for two mids.  Matt Kennedy averaged 24.47 (11contested) disposals in 2022 that's more than 6 better than in any other season he's played.  George Hewett averaged 28.47 (12.47 contested) that more than 7 better than in any other season he's played.  - You can see where this is going.  Patrick Cripps should be giving each of them some royalties for the endorsements he's got for winning a Brownlow - without them he and Walsh are back to playing as a duet in the contested possession orchestra, rather than the full ensemble.   The common view is that Carlton bottled their season last year, my view is that injuries got them - Hewett in particular is a first string mid with the Blues right next to Cripps and Walsh.  He does the unfashionable defensive mid role- but he's super important as is Kennedy who I personally think was the biggest improver of 2022.  No wonder the Blues dropped their last four games when they weren’t available.  Acres on one wing and perhaps Cerra, perhaps Cottrell, mean they should have better options than most teams for that role. 

3. It’s not a bad attacking line-up when you have two Coleman medallists as your two key pillars.  What they’re lacking though is a classy small forward that can kick 40+ goals a season (like a Kozzie Pickett for example).  Motlop and to a lesser extent Owies and Durdin showed that they could be the smalls needed at the feet of the bigger guys, but it still tends to be all or nothing for the Blues if either Charlie or Harry can’t kick a bag.  They need to find a way to spread the goals a little more evenly.  I have a mate who is Blues fan and whose footy brain I rate highly – the two Blues he dislikes playing are Silvagni and Fisher – his thoughts are that they muck up too many scoring chains- he just doesn't like their decision making.   He’s perhaps being a little unfair on Fisher, but I can see his point with Jack.  It might be an interesting year for him as he doesn’t have any real tricks that make him the obvious choice over resting a tall like TD forward or playing a more mobile Corey Durdin, Josh Honey, Lachie Fogarty or dare I say Jack Martin if he can ever put it together.

 

4. Defence – on first blush I thought this would be an issue for the Blues even before Zac Williams injury and maybe it still will be.  With Weitering they have one of the league’s best KPD.  Young came into his own last year showing far more than he ever did at the Dogs, but it’s still a small sample size to see how he would go as the #1 defensive tall if he has to assume that mantle.  Marchbank is probably the competition’s unluckiest player, but if he can get on the park they have three really good tall options to partner McGovern – provided he can maintain that intercept marking form (though again only a small sample size).  I said before I’m not a fan of Plowman – he’s a weak link in defence, undersized as a Key Back and too ungainly/slow to effectively play on a small – just my view.  Saad is extremely lucky to be an AA IMHO ahead of say Angus Brayshaw or maybe even Sam Docherty who was the Blues B&F runner up.  Newman provides a good lockdown option, but they’ll probably need to find at least one more speedy runner with good penetration to replace Williams – who I’m seeing as a loss – just a loss at this stage, neither minor, nor major.   It is the one area they do need to improve on though to become a genuine premiership threat.  There were three standout defensive teams last year and Carlton weren't one of them.  They ranked sixth only one point above the Saints and in the same bracket as Richmond and the Lions - so not terrible, but not great either. 

 

5. The player they can least afford to lose – it was a toss up, but I settled on Weitering.  Charlie, Harry, Sam and Patrick are all in the best six for Carlton.  So is Jacob – clearly, absolutely, indubitably, but no other tall back  would be in the conversation and that’s a problem for the Blues – how do they cover him going down? (with great difficulty) It’s weird – or at least I think it’s weird that their VC wasn’t even in their top 10 for their B&F last season… but maybe that has something to do with the fact that none of their coaching group last year was a defender.  Maybe Tom Lonergan addresses the issue this year because if Weitering isn’t in their five best players week in week out, then I’ll go heave. 

 

Sportsbet has the Blues knocking on the door of the top four this year at $9.50- they’re paying $1.40 to make the eight.  It’s a human trait to pattern match – though sometimes we see patterns where none exist.  I don’t think there were any real similarities between our 2017 season and the Blues, except for the disappointment both sides would have felt about a missed opportunity.  So it doesn't necessarily follow that the Blues automatically play in a Prelim this year because or what happened last year, except I actually think they will because I think they have a game style that lends itself to finals success.

 It hasn’t been a good preseason in terms of the injury front, but it hasn’t been terminal either, I think they’ll recover and I think they will find a way to sneak into the four, but that’s the problem I currently have six teams in my top four.  

Edited February 15, 20232 yr by grazman

Top 6 and one finals win should be their pass mark both internally and externally.

Given the talent they've draft and traded in over the last few years, it's time they grew up and played finals.

Edited February 15, 20232 yr by Bring-Back-Powell

1 hour ago, grazman said:

 @WERRIDEEI

I have a slightly different starting line-up - though Newman for Williams is an obvious change given the laters' ACL.  

I have Fisher, Hewett and De Koning all in the starting XVIII at the expense of Durdin, Martin and Pittonet. 

 It's probably a case of splitting hairs, but while Durdin was a revelation last year playing 21 games he's still young and could drop off, whereas Fisher played all 22 and was 7th in the B&F (yes- I was surprised too).  

De Koning I think will assume the #1 ruck.  Pittonet was injured, I know, and came back in for the last 2 games of the year at TDs expense – TD is more mobile and has more upside.  I think both will probably play anyway with 5 on the bench now. 

Jack Martin has to be one of the most frustrating footballers on any list - he shows glimpses of his sublime talent, but that's all they are glimpses. He's forever in the medical rooms (38 games in 3 seasons since crossing on big money) and there were 20 other blokes that played more senior games than he did last year.  I’d have Owies and Cottrell (depending on his foot) in ahead of him and Hewett  will definitely be picked before Jack will, but I'll cover more on him a bit later.

So the draw: The Blues play us and the Pies twice - they also have return bouts against, GCS, GWS, Saints and West Coast... on paper at least based on last years form Blues fans would be pretty happy.  It gets even between when you see the full draw.  They've got two 5 day breaks and three 6 day breaks leading into the bye – the rest is very generous particularly as they have big blocks of very winnable games to get on a roll.  If they haven't at least 8 wins on the board by the bye (I think they could go 15-16 wins for the season) the Blues faithful should be baying for Voss' blood. 

1.  So let's start at the coal face.  The contested possession count – this probably reflects not only the game plan of the respective sides, but the way both senior coaches actually played the game back in the day.   Melbourne were the #1 contested possession side last year (3238 in total after round 23) but Carlton was a close second (3200 after round 23).  We had four players get over 200 CP (Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Gawn), Carlton had only two with Cripps and Walsh, but Hewett was 3rd with 190 and missed 7 games (so logically would have likely got over 200 if he'd played every game).  Matt Kennedy had 188 CP but missed 5 matches.  I’m not sure that the title of being the top CP team means that much, and it isn’t the be all and end all (after all Richmond managed three flags being a middle of the road CP side) but it is an indication of how they like to play the game and when the Blues get it right they’re a contender for sure.  For the record the Crows were third, Suns fourth, Lions fifth and Swans sixth.  Geelong ranked 12^thbut all five of their top five CP winners had over 200 CP – so it’s a very uneven spread. 

2.  The midfield.  Walsh injured early hurts, but if he’s managed properly and back to his 2022 form by May/June, then it’s only a minor hiccup.  Winners of Charlie usually struggle to replicate the heights they reached in the previous season, but even given that they can afford a small drop off from Cripps if they manage to get 20+ games out of two of their less high profile, but absolutely vital midfield generals. There’s a reason why Carlton were flying early in 2022 and it was off the back of career highs for two mids.  Matt Kennedy averaged 24.47 (11contested) disposals in 2022 that's more than 6 better than in any other season he's played.  George Hewett averaged 28.47 (12.47 contested) that more than 7 better than in any other season he's played.  - You can see where this is going.  Patrick Cripps should be giving each of them some royalties for the endorsements he's got for winning a Brownlow - without them he and Walsh are back to playing as a duet in the contested possession orchestra, rather than the full ensemble.   The common view is that Carlton bottled their season last year, my view is that injuries got them - Hewett in particular is a first string mid with the Blues right next to Cripps and Walsh.  He does the unfashionable defensive mid role- but he's super important as is Kennedy who I personally think was the biggest improver of 2022.  No wonder the Blues dropped their last four games when they weren’t available.  Acres on one wing and perhaps Cerra, perhaps Cottrell, mean they should have better options than most teams for that role. 

3. It’s not a bad attacking line-up when you have two Coleman medallists as your two key pillars.  What they’re lacking though is a classy small forward that can kick 40+ goals a season (like a Kozzie Pickett for example).  Motlop and to a lesser extent Owies and Durdin showed that they could be the smalls needed at the feet of the bigger guys, but it still tends to be all or nothing for the Blues if either Charlie or Harry can’t kick a bag.  They need to find a way to spread the goals a little more evenly.  I have a mate who is Blues fan and whose footy brain I rate highly – the two Blues he dislikes playing are Silvagni and Fisher – his thoughts are that they muck up too many scoring chains- he just doesn't like their decision making.   He’s perhaps being a little unfair on Fisher, but I can see his point with Jack.  It might be an interesting year for him as he doesn’t have any real tricks that make him the obvious choice over resting a tall like TD forward or playing a more mobile Corey Durdin, Josh Honey, Lachie Fogarty or dare I say Jack Martin if he can ever put it together.

 

4. Defence – on first blush I thought this would be an issue for the Blues even before Zac Williams injury and maybe it still will be.  With Weitering they have one of the league’s best KPD.  Young came into his own last year showing far more than he ever did at the Dogs, but it’s still a small sample size to see how he would go as the #1 defensive tall if he has to assume that mantle.  Marchbank is probably the competition’s unluckiest player, but if he can get on the park they have three really good tall options to partner McGovern – provided he can maintain that intercept marking form (though again only a small sample size).  I said before I’m not a fan of Plowman – he’s a weak link in defence, undersized as a Key Back and too ungainly/slow to effectively play on a small – just my view.  Saad is extremely lucky to be an AA IMHO ahead of say Angus Brayshaw or maybe even Sam Docherty who was the Blues B&F runner up.  Newman provides a good lockdown option, but they’ll probably need to find at least one more speedy runner with good penetration to replace Williams – who I’m seeing as a loss – just a loss at this stage, neither minor, nor major.   It is the one area they do need to improve on though to become a genuine premiership threat.  There were three standout defensive teams last year and Carlton weren't one of them.  They ranked sixth only one point above the Saints and in the same bracket as Richmond and the Lions - so not terrible, but not great either. 

 

5. The player they can least afford to lose – it was a toss up, but I settled on Weitering.  Charlie, Harry, Sam and Patrick are all in the best six for Carlton.  So is Jacob – clearly, absolutely, indubitably, but no other tall back  would be in the conversation and that’s a problem for the Blues – how do they cover him going down? (with great difficulty) It’s weird – or at least I think it’s weird that their VC wasn’t even in their top 10 for their B&F last season… but maybe that has something to do with the fact that none of their coaching group last year was a defender.  Maybe Tom Lonergan addresses the issue this year because if Weitering isn’t in their five best players week in week out, then I’ll go heave. 

 

Sportsbet has the Blues knocking on the door of the top four this year at $9.50- they’re paying $1.40 to make the eight.  It’s a human trait to pattern match – though sometimes we see patterns where none exist.  I don’t think there were any real similarities between our 2017 season and the Blues, except for the disappoint both sides would have felt about a missed opportunity.  So it doesn't necessarily follow that the Blues automatically play in a Prelim this year because or what happened last year, except I actually think they will because I think they have a game style that lends itself to finals success.

 It hasn’t been a good preseason in terms of the injury front, but it hasn’t been terminal either, I think they’ll recover and I think they will find a way to sneak into the four, but that’s the problem I currently have six teams in my top four.  

Excellent analysis!

The interesting question for the Blues will be how much further players like Cerra, Cottrell, O'Brien, Young, Boyd, De Koning etc have developed from last season. If they can stepup to another next level, watch out for the Blues in 2023.

 

loving these deep dives @grazman

I have a feeling that Carlton will slip they aren't even in my top 8 let alone top 4. Something about Voss being a failed coach bothers me they rarely work out. Walsh out is a huge loss.

They took a fair old beating with the injury stick in 2022.

They haven't started 2023 well in that regard.