H&A % as an indicator of team chances to win Finals

[ElDiablo14 4,999]

I am not convinced Collingwood are the real deal, my argument is their horrible percentage.

I believe NM was the most recent team with a similar % that qualified in the top 4.

NM went out in straight sets.

Collingwood could have at least 3 or 4 more losses if it wasn't for after the siren goals, GC fading in the last quarter and us missing so many goals.

What do you think about percentage and its value as an indicator of a team that can actually win it all?

[Fanatique Demon 2,646]

Was hoping you’d tell us.

[ElDiablo14 4,999]

1 minute ago, Fanatique Demon said:

Was hoping you’d tell us.

I wanted people's opinion, I stand that percentage does correlate to success in September.

I could be wrong but I did read some stats that the average % of premiership teams is something like 125 plus. 

I don't think there's been a premier with a percentage lower than 110 since the 8 finals teams system started.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

2016 Hawks finished 3rd with the 6th best percentage thanks largely to a 6-0 record in games decided under 10pts. 8-1 in games decided under 20

The went out in straight sets to Geelong and WB

[DubDee 25,868]

What are the odds that % dictates finals wins?

I'd say 42% of the time it is unclear

[phatmaniac 5]

It's usually pretty reliable and you'd suggest that in the heat of finals, that their run and gun whacked out corridoor risky style of play will falter and they'll get smashed.

 

At least thats what im hoping

[Lord Travis 10,730]

Percentage is the most reliable indicator of a teams performance. As the fixture is not equal, lower placed teams from the previous year such as Collingwood have an easier run and can accumulate more wins (which is all that matters). 

Teams that make finals with a low percentage usually fail come finals time. They have struggled over the line throughout the season, and once the pressure rises in finals they are no longer competitive. The lowest percentage by a premier in the past decade is Richmond at approximately 114%. Dogs won at approx 116%. Premiers average percentage over the past decade is 131%.

Collingwood currently have the lowest percentage for a top four team in over a decade at 106%. It’s why I rate them as very long odds to win the flag. They’re a middle of the road team who have had a good lucky run. Statistically, some of their wins this year have been anomalies that will not happen again. They have no consistent game style that they execute consistently and instead rely purely on emotion and momentum. Credit to them for making it this far, but it is not sustainable. When pressure rises, you need a defined system and style or you’ll run around like a headless chook and be dismantled by a well drilled side. If they win the flag, it will be a miracle (or nightmare) and they will statistically be the weakest premier this millennium (I didn’t bother scrolling back past 2000). 

[In Harmes Way 7,783]

27 minutes ago, DubDee said:

What are the odds that % dictates finals wins?

I'd say 42% of the time it is unclear

2 out of 3 experts agree

[DubDee 25,868]

13 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

2 out of 3 experts agree

as the great Meatloaf said - that ain't bad

[dl4e 5,851]

I believe the situation as is, is that the filth have the highest amount of wins  in a year with the score being under 2 goals.  The second most is Melbourne in 1989 where we had 8 such victories. We played in the Elim final  and won ( against the filth I think) but got bundled out by Geelong in the first semi. At least we won one. But here is hoping that the filth go out in straight sets.

[faultydet 7,594]

People still looking for a reason to ignore the fact we are not a patch on last year's team will hold on for dear life to things like "percentage as a chance of winning the flag"

We need to reverse the 10 round long up-down cycle if we are to salute again. We just don't look all that capable of doing that right now. We've lost the killer instinct and league leading fitness that we enjoyed last year.

Edited August 9, 2022 by faultydet

[ElDiablo14 4,999]

2 minutes ago, dl4e said:

I believe the situation as is, is that the filth have the highest amount of wins  in a year with the score being under 2 goals.  The second most is Melbourne in 1989 where we had 8 such victories. We played in the Elim final  and won ( against the filth I think) but got bundled out by Geelong in the first semi. At least we won one. But here is hoping that the filth go out in straight sets.

They can still finish outside the top 4.

I believe and hope they lose against Sydney, and potentially the blues could also beat them.

[dl4e 5,851]

2 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

They can still finish outside the top 4.

I believe and hope they lose against Sydney, and potentially the blues could also beat them.

I am aware of that but those bustards are riding on the magic carpet at the moment.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,396]

Pies still may miss top 4

[von 1,567]

15 minutes ago, faultydet said:

People still looking for a reason to ignore the fact we are not a patch on last year's team will hold on for dear life to things like "percentage as a chance of winning the flag"

We need to reverse the 10 round long up-down cycle if we are to salute again. We just don't look all that capable of doing that right now. We've lost the killer instinct and league leading fitness that we enjoyed last year.

This was about Collingwood wasn’t it? 

[faultydet 7,594]

25 minutes ago, von said:

This was about Collingwood wasn’t it? 

What do you think about percentage and its value as an indicator of a team that can actually win it all?

The final question was about all teams.

I read it as an attempt to say that we are still in it because our percentage is higher and Collingwood is less of a chance as thwors is lower.. We are still in it because we will play finals, but our chances historically are quite low considering the form we will be taking into the finals. Unless of course we blow away Carlton and Brisbane in our final 2 games which seems unlikely on exposed form. We will be limping to the line, and that is always a bad sign come finals.

 

 

[von 1,567]

25 minutes ago, faultydet said:

What do you think about percentage and its value as an indicator of a team that can actually win it all?

The final question was about all teams.

I read it as an attempt to say that we are still in it because our percentage is higher and Collingwood is less of a chance as thwors is lower.. We are still in it because we will play finals, but our chances historically are quite low considering the form we will be taking into the finals. Unless of course we blow away Carlton and Brisbane in our final 2 games which seems unlikely on exposed form. We will be limping to the line, and that is always a bad sign come finals.

 

 

I see percentage as very important. Paul Roos spoke about bringing our percentage up being more important than winning at the start of our rebuild as it is a better indicator as to how competitive you are. It’s kinda like how you are faring in the game that is the entire season rather than how you went when the final siren blew at each game. Not a perfect analogy but I think it makes sense. Collingwood statistically are the luckiest team in a very long time. Doesn’t mean they can’t win it all. Just very lucky to this point. It’s literal chance they are winning by the margins they are. Heart, determination etc are overblown in this conversation in my opinion.

 

I think we played quite well and our firm is better than the loss suggested. I think we are very chance to beat Carlton and Brisbane comfortably. Improved conversion alone will do it.

Edited August 9, 2022 by von

[Demon17 5,188]

2 hours ago, ElDiablo14 said:

I am not convinced Collingwood are the real deal, my argument is their horrible percentage.

I believe NM was the most recent team with a similar % that qualified in the top 4.

NM went out in straight sets.

Collingwood could have at least 3 or 4 more losses if it wasn't for after the siren goals, GC fading in the last quarter and us missing so many goals.

What do you think about percentage and its value as an indicator of a team that can actually win it all?

Over the past 10 years, to 2012, Both grand finalists have never had a % under 115% except once by the Tiges in 2019

The majority have been over 125%

And having a % above 130 % and more does not guarantee a win in the GF either.

e.g. Cats in 2019   136%   Loss

       Hawks in 2012   155%  Loss

       Dogs  2021   133%   Loss

       Crows  2017  136%    Loss.

            

Prelim Finals the same magnitude rule also applies.

For the last 5 years no Prelim Final team has had a % under 113% and that was   the Tiges with 113.7%   in 2019.

Majority by a long way were all mostly above 120% and much higher. 

Pies will be absolute outliers to make the PF in 2022 on the above.  Doesn't mean they can't but there's reasons why this is so.                             

[Little Goffy 14,546]

Collingwood have done what it took in each game and that is priceless. They are a mile above where they 'ought' to be based on total scoring.

Think of it this way;

Last year the Demons were a top-4 side that then found their spirit late in the season and became a devastatingly potent premiership side.

This year Collingwood are a top-8 side that found their spirit mid-way through the season and have willed themselves right into premiership conversation.

Immense credit to their new coach and it will be very interesting to see if it can be sustained with the pre-finals bye, the finals context, and the shifting expectations. I'd be watching for a 'Demons 2018' style dead stop when the luck and momentum turns against them and they finally embrace the reality that they aren't actually as good as they seem.

And without being sour about it, they have had a lot of luck.

Personally, my mind is mostly fixed on the very simple fact that if the Demons allow themselves to be rush-scored against, they lose. If they don't, they win. That's it.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,833]

Since 2012 the average percentage of a grand finalist is 130.

But on the other hand, winning is the most important KPI in this business and Collingwood have the second most of them.

I feel as though the majority of non Collingwood people are finding any reason to write them off without actually realising that they're a damn good side that combines devastating offensive transition with rabid commitment to defence. They didn't give us a sniff in that second half.

Those two key attributes will take them far in September.

Perhaps a lack of A grade forwards might be their downfall. Not sure you can rely on Mihocek, Johnson, Elliott (who is A grade) and Ginnavin to get them through an entire campaign.

 

 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

Get on this...

http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2014/2/16/pythagorean-expectation-for-vflafl-and-the-nrl

and pre-season 2022 interpretation

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[ElDiablo14 4,999]

10 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Since 2012 the average percentage of a grand finalist is 130.

But on the other hand, winning is the most important KPI in this business and Collingwood have the second most of them.

I feel as though the majority of non Collingwood people are finding any reason to write them off without actually realising that they're a damn good side that combines devastating offensive transition with rabid commitment to defence. They didn't give us a sniff in that second half.

Those two key attributes will take them far in September.

Perhaps a lack of A grade forwards might be their downfall. Not sure you can rely on Mihocek, Johnson, Elliott (who is A grade) and Ginnavin to get them through an entire campaign.

 

 

I disagree, we did have a sniff in the second half. We dominated the first 10 minutes of the third and even in the fourth quarter we had chances to be 7 points up(see the missing opportunity due to a bad kick by Kozzy).

On top of their mediocre forward line, their midfield lacks an A grade ruckman. So they lack the quality to win the contest in the middle and on top of that their fwd line may be insufficient to score against good defenders (remember in finals umpires tend to allow more contact and [censored] are not given as easy as we saw last Friday).

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,833]

27 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

I disagree, we did have a sniff in the second half. We dominated the first 10 minutes of the third and even in the fourth quarter we had chances to be 7 points up(see the missing opportunity due to a bad kick by Kozzy).

On top of their mediocre forward line, their midfield lacks an A grade ruckman. So they lack the quality to win the contest in the middle and on top of that their fwd line may be insufficient to score against good defenders (remember in finals umpires tend to allow more contact and [censored] are not given as easy as we saw last Friday).

All fair points. And yes, I probably should've clarified that were parts of the second half where they didn't give us a sniff rather than the entire half. Agreed we had our chances in the opening minutes of the 3rd quarter to possibly break their spirit but as usual our lack of efficiency and poise cost us.

However, I gave up trying write Collingwood off the day they couldn't have played any worse against North but yet still won. They may be on the same fairy tale path as we were last year.

Sometimes you just have to shrug your shoulders and acknowledge that a team that goes 11-0 are the real deal, no matter how they get the job done.

They may fail spectacularly come finals, however they play the G very well and have enough players who have been there and done it in September, particularly the 2018 campaign.

(Sincerely Hope I'm wrong)

[layzie 33,805]

All I can say is if you're right 56% of the time then you're wrong 44% of the time.

[faultydet 7,594]

5 hours ago, faultydet said:

What do you think about percentage and its value as an indicator of a team that can actually win it all?

The final question was about all teams.

I read it as an attempt to say that we are still in it because our percentage is higher and Collingwood is less of a chance as thwors is lower.. We are still in it because we will play finals, but our chances historically are quite low considering the form we will be taking into the finals. Unless of course we blow away Carlton and Brisbane in our final 2 games which seems unlikely on exposed form. We will be limping to the line, and that is always a bad sign come finals.

 

 

I guess my $2 +1.5's from Solleys are not cutting the mustard any more.