Farewell Toby Bedford

[drdrake 3,187]

With the players leaving GWS they are going to have a pretty strong hand in both r1 one of 2022 and 23 draft.

Not sure if they have any academy plays this year.  

We might get a responsible pick with Bedford and a pick swap.

[Nascent 9,283]

5 minutes ago, BAMF said:

What are we likely to get in trade?

I feel like anywhere between a late second round pick to early third would be a straight swap. Say... Between 32 and 42.

Is that realistic?

GWS currently has picks 3, 21, 40, 58, 60.

Without considering future picks and just looking at a straight swap I think GWS would want to give 58 while we would he angling for 40.

Out of contract outside of best 22 player so we don't have much leverage.

However, with GWS about to have an influx of picks with Hopper, Bruhn, Taranto and Hill leaving, who knows where their draft hand will fall. When all is done they may only want to take 1st round picks into the draft which may mean they will be happy to move on their 2nd round picks for Bedford and perhaps a future pick swap into next year that favours them.

Another poster suggested Bedford and 32 for GWS pick 21 which would be a good outcome. Would be somewhat similar to our Frost deal in 2014 where GWS got our pick 23 for Frost, 40 (ANB) and 53 (O-Mac). Frost at the time wasn't best 22 and from memory most here were surprised and annoyed we gave up an early 2nd round pick even with other picks coming back.

 

[Demonland 73,140]

 

[Future of Aussie Rules 18]

We have the best recruiter in the business.

Let him at it.

If he can draft some gun 18 year Olds, on the back of decent fringe players leaving, more power to us.

The more list spaces we have available, the more we can maximize the skills and talents of the our clubs greatest asset, the Architect.

[picket fence 17,500]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Have you watched him play, PF?

Yep. I'll stand by my comments!

[durango 2,023]

I think Andy Moniz-Wakefield has a higher ceiling than Toby but he did get a contract offer of 3 years so he must think that GWS will give him more opportunities sometimes players have to wait their turn al la Tuck at Hawthorn I believe he played many games in the Reserves before cementing his place in the 1st's.

Players listen to coaches who interview them and promise the earth so they will sign al la Jeremy Howe playing forward by Buckley and he knew he was not a natural forward.

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

18 minutes ago, Future of Aussie Rules said:

We have the best recruiter in the business.

Let him at it.

If he can draft some gun 18 year Olds, on the back of decent fringe players leaving, more power to us.

The more list spaces we have available, the more we can maximize the skills and talents of the our clubs greatest asset, the Architect.

Remember we have to combine every 3rd round or later pick we get in to 2nd rounds or better because the so called Architect hasn’t nailed a 3rd round pick in the best part of a decade. 

[MrFreeze 1,995]

We have a good trade relationship with GWS so I would love to package him with a late pick to move up the draft. 

End of the day he was a cheap academy pick up and we should be looking to make a profit of his development. 

[BAMF 4,385]

4 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Remember we have to combine every 3rd round or later pick we get in to 2nd rounds or better because the so called Architect hasn’t nailed a 3rd round pick in the best part of a decade. 

If Bedford was pick 75 and is now being offered a three year deal at another club then I would classify it as a successful pick by Taylor.

I guess you will argue that pick 75 wasn't a third round pick.

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

3 minutes ago, BAMF said:

If Bedford was pick 75 and is now being offered a three year deal at another club then I would classify it as a successful pick by Taylor.

I guess you will argue that pick 75 wasn't a third round pick.

3rd round or latter,  none have played 50 games or left with genuine trade currency.
 

Bedford played 10 games in 4 years. Yes, he’ll probably turn pick 75 in to pick 45-50ish if it’s a straight up trade. Whilst not a fail when we never nail picks in that range that’s not a success, just a lateral move. 

[Sir Why You Little 37,127]

5 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

3rd round or latter,  none have played 50 games or left with genuine trade currency.
 

Bedford played 10 games in 4 years. Yes, he’ll probably turn pick 75 in to pick 45-50ish if it’s a straight up trade. Whilst not a fail when we never nail picks in that range that’s not a success, just a lateral move. 

Must you complain about everything?

[Return to Glory 8,448]

On 9/21/2022 at 7:57 AM, MadAsHell said:

I wouldn't be opposed to Francis. Could finally see him reach his potential and play him back while shifting Petty forward.

God no

[BAMF 4,385]

16 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

3rd round or latter,  none have played 50 games or left with genuine trade currency.
 

Bedford played 10 games in 4 years. Yes, he’ll probably turn pick 75 in to pick 45-50ish if it’s a straight up trade. Whilst not a fail when we never nail picks in that range that’s not a success, just a lateral move. 

Ok then. Let's play this out as you have made this point in multiple threads now.

Which club has the best success with third round or later picks in your opinion?

Pick that club and see which players were drafted AFTER our third round pick.

Then pick which player/s out of our best 22 who you would take 50 games experience away from to accommodate these players.

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

5 minutes ago, BAMF said:

Ok then. Let's play this out as you have made this point in multiple threads now.

Which club has the best success with third round or later picks in your opinion?

Pick that club and see which players were drafted AFTER our third round pick.

Then pick which player/s out of our best 22 who you would take 50 games experience away from to accommodate these players.

Geelong.

Henry - A combination of B Brown/Melk with Petty forward this year, Tomlinson and Oscar in 20/21 or this year Lever take your pick

Close - ANB this year, various half forwards in years prior

Atkins - Sparrow, Vanders, Nath Jones, Dunstan

Zuthrie - Might’ve struggled to get many games until this year but Rivers (2022 version)

Stengle (hasn’t got to 50 Geelong games yet) - Spargo this year 

 

 

[Garbo 1,542]

Sad to see bedford go but can’t blame him, he’s going to make us look stupid for not giving him more game time and persisting with the likes of anb and spargo all year despite there indifferent form, double so if this continues next year and kozzie doesn’t resign.

[Travy14 1,950]

5 hours ago, Turner said:

i can't believe this thread has made it the last 4 pages without any mention of Laurie, was rated as highly as bowey when drafted, has the composure and kicking skills we like about spargo and hopefully does a better job of finding the footy, but this will give him the opportunity to get some minutes and push into the side, i realise he's not exactly a like for like with toby but a small forward is a small forward is a small forward and this will present him some more opportunities in '23

Oh I hope he does too,  I've watched a fair bit of Casey this year though and he isn't at the level as Chandler or Bedford.  But hopefully another pre season and a bigger body gets him to the level.

But a good player to raise in term of the depth we have in this position, and whilst id like to keep Bedford it is a position that doesn't hurt us as much.

[bing181 9,328]

23 minutes ago, Garbo said:

he’s going to make us look stupid for not giving him more game time

No he's not. He was playing in the twos for a reason.

[bing181 9,328]

As with any of our players, sad to see Bedford go. But if you can't cement a place in the firsts after 3 years, understandable that he would be open to offers elsewhere and equally understandable that the club wouldn't be banging down his door to get him to stay.

Good luck to him.

[deejammin' 2,373]

Sad to see Toby go, I really enjoyed his first half against Hawthorn, has plenty of upside, needs to learn to stay in games for four quarters. 

So that’s: Daw (Rookie), M Brown (Rookie), Rosman, Jackson, Bedford, Hunt gone.

2 Rookie spots and 3 senior spots (once Chandler is elevated), 2 with Grundy. We need developing ruck, KPF and speedy skilful players. With two speedy players departing the need for speed has become more acute. Interesting to see what we’ve got planned.

[BAMF 4,385]

59 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

Geelong.

Henry - A combination of B Brown/Melk with Petty forward this year, Tomlinson and Oscar in 20/21 or this year Lever take your pick

Close - ANB this year, various half forwards in years prior

Atkins - Sparrow, Vanders, Nath Jones, Dunstan

Zuthrie - Might’ve struggled to get many games until this year but Rivers (2022 version)

Stengle (hasn’t got to 50 Geelong games yet) - Spargo this year 

 

 

Jack Henry. 107 games. Rookie Pick 16 2016

We took:

• Dion Johnstone, Pick 64
• Lachlan Filipovic, Rookie Pick 8

In hindsight he could have potentially taken games from:

• Melksham - 2019 onwards (52 games)
• Tomlinson - 2020 onwards (28 games)
• OMac - 2019 onwards (19 games)

Summary: Happy that you are correct with this one. We should have drafted him instead of Dion Johnstone. Filipovic was a developing ruck need but could have been taken with a later pick instead of Tim Smith.

 

Bradley Close. 55 Games. Rookie Pick 14 2019.

We took:

• passed on rookie pick #2 and took Harley Bennell as a preseason pick.

Could have taken games from :

• ANB - 2022 (23 games): No way this actually happens. ANB had a great 2021 and coaches loved him this year but will give it to you.
• Hannan 2020 (9 games)
• Harley Bennell (5 games)
• Combo of others as Close suits our needs (maybe Sparrow plays a few less here)

Summary: Close suits our needs. Confident we would have found room for him. Harley Bennell was the only player we took instead.

 

Tom Atkins. 83 Games. Rookie Pick 11 2018.

We took :

• Aaron Nitschke, pick 53
• Marty Hore, pick 56
• Toby Bedford, pick 75

Could have taken games from:

• Sparrow (possibly)
• Jordon (possibly)
• Hames (doubtful)
• Jones (doubtful/arguably)
• VDB (arguably)

Summary: We would have found room but this is a tough one. He wouldn't be in front of Oliver, Petracca or Viney in the inside mids. He is better than Sparrow and Jordan. I doubt he would have taken games off Vanders in 2020. Vanders only played a handful of games in 21. He might have taken a few games of Jones but it wouldn't have been many. Jones was still a club champion. So really, he replaces Sparrow who we wanted to get games into over this period.

The cats took 5 players who didn't make it after round 2 before they selected Atkins. 

 

Zac Guthrie. 54 Games. Rookie Pick 33 2016.

We took: 

• Dion Johnstone, pick 64
• Lachlan Filipovic, Rookie pick 8
• Tim Smith, Rookie, pick 25

Summary: I'm not even going to bother with this one. We have already substituted Dion Johnstone for Jack Henry. We took a punt on Tim Smith who played 13 games in a totally different role and we needed to take a punt on a rookie ruck in Filipovic for list needs. I highly doubt we would have had the patience the Cats did to develop Zach into the player he eventually became 6 season later with our team structure. 

 

Tyson Stengle. 25 Games (2022 only). Delisted Free Agent 2021

We took:

• Taj Woewodin, Pick 65
• Judd McVee, Rookie pick 18
• Luke Dunstan, DFA

Summary: Would have been great in hindsight but due to circumstances I don't think this was ever going to happen and its a stretch to say it ever was. I'm not giving you this one.

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

37 minutes ago, BAMF said:

Zac Guthrie. 54 Games. Rookie Pick 33 2016.

We took: 

• Dion Johnstone, pick 64
• Lachlan Filipovic, Rookie pick 8
• Tim Smith, Rookie, pick 25

Summary: I'm not even going to bother with this one. We have already substituted Dion Johnstone for Jack Henry. We took a punt on Tim Smith who played 13 games in a totally different role and we needed to take a punt on a rookie ruck in Filipovic for list needs. I highly doubt we would have had the patience the Cats did to develop Zach into the player he eventually became 6 season later with our team structure. 

Maybe we wouldn't have kept patience with Guthrie, but I don't  buy that we needed Filipovic. We had Gawn, Spencer and a break in case of necessary 3rd ruck in Pedersen on the list, plus Mitch King as a developing prospect.

We're up to 5 years of Oskar Baker, who was 19 when drafted, on the list with very little return. 

And on the matter if you don't want to accept Stengle which I get, then go with Gryan Miers over Oskar Baker in the same draft. Gryan's played 80 at the Cats, he would've got at least 40. 30+ in 19/20 and 10+ this year even if our 2021 guys are better.

At the end of the day I'm not expecting us to draft and develop late picks as well as the Cats. Wells is a master of finding talent. And they get inside knowledge to local players - Henry, Miers and Atkins 3 of them. Plus they've had a heap of late picks due to having so few early ones and that allows them to churn through them. 

My issue is we're at 0 late picks developed and there's absolutely been room to get guys some games if they were good enough. Goodwin isn't coaching for his job like a young coach in a rebuild desperate to play the top 10 picks, he can pick who he chooses and he just hasn't been compelled to choose anyone. The only non early pick that he chooses somewhat consistently is Joel Smith!

It might also be a resources thing. JT and co probably focus on the early picks. We might need to change out personnel or invest more in the depth of our recruiting department.

[djr 1,597]

3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Geelong.

Henry - A combination of B Brown/Melk with Petty forward this year, Tomlinson and Oscar in 20/21 or this year Lever take your pick

Close - ANB this year, various half forwards in years prior

Atkins - Sparrow, Vanders, Nath Jones, Dunstan

Zuthrie - Might’ve struggled to get many games until this year but Rivers (2022 version)

Stengle (hasn’t got to 50 Geelong games yet) - Spargo this year 

 

 

You didn't name any of the Geelong players who were selected in the National Draft. All but Stengle were selected as rookies. You once again fault Taylor for missing all of his picks in the ND after round 2. Over the previous ten years, Wells (Geelong) has had 24 ND selections after R2, but just 7 have gone on to play more than one game. Over that period, we've only had 14 picks, with 8 of them playing senior football. See how you go just using only ND picks. Only 2 would be considered in our team, Kolodjashnij and Menegola. 

[Demonsterative 3,020]

I’m hoping for an upgrade from our 33rd pick to one within 25. Give that to Colonwood for Grundy. Massive win IMO!! 

GWS have too many picks with Taranto and others leaving. No skin off their nose. We could use the Jackson picks from either Freeo or WC to move up the draft in this deal too. 
 

 

 

[deanox 9,989]

8 hours ago, SFebes said:

Understand what you’re saying, but they rested Dangerfield, Selwood etc and brought in others. We didn’t rest anyone and brought in Melksham etc. for eg did we just turn over our bottom 6 v them resting their stars? If I could find the chart from fox footy I’d post it but a bit busy. 

Geelong had:

5 players play every game, 

4 miss one game, 

3 miss two games,

3 miss three games.

 

Melbourne had

4 play every game

5 miss one game

5 miss two games

1 miss three games

 

Very similar across our top 15 players.

 

Dangerfield is 32, just one of how many old guys in that team? (I have double checked how many played, but I think they 13 over 30, 10 over 31 and 6 over 32 on the list?).

We had Hibberd, Melksham, Gawn and May above 30. The two "smalls" were rested across the year.

 

You can go find the chart on Fox footy, or look it up on AFL tables yourself.

But the stats I've given indicated that it doesn't matter whether it's the top 5, 10 or 15 players, the way we handled the year in terms of games played was pretty similar.

[Bay Riffin 1,480]

2 hours ago, Garbo said:

Sad to see bedford go but can’t blame him, he’s going to make us look stupid for not giving him more game time and persisting with the likes of anb and spargo all year despite there indifferent form, double so if this continues next year and kozzie doesn’t resign.

yeah maybe. and I watched him in the VFL finals and he was fumbly and a mixed bag of good and bad. he's stil got some development to do.

i don't know why people were thinking he was suddenly go to turn it all on the firsts. i n finals !!