I am always amused reading these threads at this time of the year. When we are drafting  in the number is higher than when we selling . 

Pick 43 is useless based on our trade with Port. Maybe we could use 43 + 27 to inch higher for the Grundy deal, or maybe GWS could do 21 for Bedford + 27.

Or maybe a future 3rd.

On 10/2/2022 at 2:17 PM, DeeSpencer said:

Remember we have to combine every 3rd round or later pick we get in to 2nd rounds or better because the so called Architect hasn’t nailed a 3rd round pick in the best part of a decade. 

Wtf is this post, DS? Do you just chuck the feet up and hit the turps before posting on Demonland sometimes? 

1 hour ago, old55 said:

Pick 43 is useless based on our trade with Port. Maybe we could use 43 + 27 to inch higher for the Grundy deal, or maybe GWS could do 21 for Bedford + 27.

Or maybe a future 3rd.

GWS likely have pick 30 coming in as part of the Hopper trade. 

30 for Bedford + 50 seems about right 

6 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

GWS likely have pick 30 coming in as part of the Hopper trade. 

30 for Bedford + 50 seems about right 

Are GWS likely to even use pick 50 though? 

I haven't worked out how many ins and outs they have had this off season but at a glance it looks like they will have a heap of high picks this year.

They might ask for our future third simply to spread their haul over multiple years?

I wonder if we thought we would use a Bedford type if the interchange bench moved to 5 rather than the sub. It would explain to me our comments about our expectations for him next year if he stayed.

Interesting hearing Tim Lamb on Trade Radio differing on what Bedford is worth, that pick in, the 40s sounds about right their other picks are too early. 

My wild theory only, Bedford got an earworm from someone about being the bridesmaid at Melbourne whilst we had plans for him this year. We were caught on the hop and really really dont want him to go. Only two ways to explain the language being used between us and GWS who we normally just get on with and resolve trades.  The alternative is we genuinely think he is worth a lot more than 43. If he fell into the PSD there would be quite a few interested parties and I doubt he would want to take pot luck. As I said a wild theory.

 

Likely Dees get a little screwed either way

- accept pick #43 for Bedford.  Meh

- swap 27 and Bedford for pick 21. Meh.  
 

This draft is top 10 ✅ then it drifts into 20ish players that are fairly evenly distributed.  I’m not a fan of swaps that are 5-6 places. 

I'm surprised because I'm not sure Bedford is going to make it as an AFL player, but anyway, it seems the club holds a different view.

That said, we could be holding out to try and get a decent pick back to get another trade done. We don't tend to play funny buggers like that though.

Well if we manage to get a better pick out of this I'll be very impressed with Lamb's abilities. 

I think the Bedford trade might have to wait a little while. Don’t think we will pull the trigger on it until after the Grundy deal and perhaps not until after the Hopper deal. 
Im hoping that we end up with Grundy and pick 30 and maybe trade out a future 3rd. Would be great bit of business and very possible.  
 

10 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

GWS likely have pick 30 coming in as part of the Hopper trade. 

30 for Bedford + 50 seems about right 

I agree that value sounds right. Lamb said we're only taking 2 ND selections and we need one for Grundy. We only have 27 now which in some form goes for Grundy. So I guess we could use the 1st we get from Freo plus 30 for the picks.

At the moment GWS have draft picks 3, 12, 19, 21, 44, 61 and 63 and will clearly be getting in more picks for Hopper - potentially 31 this year and others next year (plus they already have an additional 2nd round pick next). So there's no need for us to do anymore than wait for the Giants to finish the Hopper deal, see what picks/players they get to see how many draft picks they'll actually use. By my count they've had 4 players (on the senior list) go out, with another to go, but potentially 1 to come back in. So there likely to only use 4 draft picks, so one of 19, 21, 31 or 44 will be useless to them, let alone 61 & 63.  So were in a position to aim for a good deal for Bedford, I'd like to upgrade 27 further to say pick 19 and have the Pies pay even more of Grundy's wage. 

1 hour ago, layzie said:

Interesting hearing Tim Lamb on Trade Radio differing on what Bedford is worth, that pick in, the 40s sounds about right their other picks are too early. 

Oyie, layzie a player is worth what someone is willing to pay and after completing his apprenticeship Toby is ready to go. Mid 2nd rounder at the min, he should have played more games for us this year our failure to do so has burnt him, sadly.!!

5 hours ago, BAMF said:

Are GWS likely to even use pick 50 though? 

I haven't worked out how many ins and outs they have had this off season but at a glance it looks like they will have a heap of high picks this year.

They might ask for our future third simply to spread their haul over multiple years?

Might have to be a future 3rd, we can probably dump 50 at the draft for a side wanting it.

Either way, Bedford + something for 30 probably works for both sides 

2 hours ago, Robbie57 said:

My wild theory only, Bedford got an earworm from someone about being the bridesmaid at Melbourne whilst we had plans for him this year. We were caught on the hop and really really dont want him to go. Only two ways to explain the language being used between us and GWS who we normally just get on with and resolve trades.  The alternative is we genuinely think he is worth a lot more than 43. If he fell into the PSD there would be quite a few interested parties and I doubt he would want to take pot luck. As I said a wild theory.

 

I want to see  Jackson pushed into the PSD as well.Yep not happy both he and Bedford are leaving

I have a high degree of faith that Bedford will be a better player than Bobby Hill. He kicked 9 goals this year despite really only playing 6 games. ANB & Spargo kicked the same number despite playing 22. He's of very high output in what is arguably the most difficult position on the ground. 

He's of very high character & work ethic and that's evident in his development so far, as he was extremely raw on arrival as a NGA prospect. It would also be very clear to GWS having interviewed him. Very coachable, dedicated to improvement, and if I think back as far as the "hell & back' videos, he was in there doing extras to try and set an example for a very raw Kozzie despite probably knowing Kozzie was going to take his spot in the AFL side. 

Billy Stretch also had all of these attributes, but had limited points of difference on the field. Nonetheless he had an OK career and on another day could have continued playing AFL in a good team. Bedford has points of difference with his pure speed and goalsense.

Bobby Hill by contrast was highly touted, has shown flashes and undoubtedly has more natural talent, but I'm not convinced he is of particularly high character or work ethic. He has pushed through some personal difficulties which is admirable.

Assuming a player has some points of difference, hard work beats talent every time.

I think this is where the FD is coming from and why they're upset to lose him. Lamb's body language noticeably fell in the Monday press conference when Bedford was brought up. 

Having said all that it's unlikely we get something in the 30s for him. 

It's an ordinary outcome as we're selling at the exact wrong time - on the precipice of breaking into the team and really upping his worth. I suspect if this was an end of 23 conversation, he'd be up for a 2nd/3rd rounder at least.  

Edited October 5, 20222 yr by fr_ap

3 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

 

- swap 27 and Bedford for pick 21. Meh.  
 

I think this would be the ideal outcome for both Melbourne and GWS. But we will have to wait and see I guess? 🤔

15 hours ago, old55 said:

Pick 43 is useless based on our trade with Port. Maybe we could use 43 + 27 to inch higher for the Grundy deal, or maybe GWS could do 21 for Bedford + 27.

Isn't that like giving Bedford away for next to nothing? 

It is 6 spot slide in a very even draft.  Every chance a player we would take at 21 will be there at 27.  And if we get 21 Coll will demand it.  Let them have 27 and we get a fair deal for Bedford.

3 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Isn't that like giving Bedford away for next to nothing? 

It is 6 spot slide in a very even draft.  Every chance a player we would take at 21 will be there at 27.  And if we get 21 Coll will demand it.  Let them have 27 and we get a fair deal for Bedford.

I think 21 is fair for Collingwood. 27 is light on.

4 minutes ago, old55 said:

I think 21 is fair for Collingwood. 27 is light on.

Maybe so but let's find another way to sweeten the Grundy trade than giving Bedford away for a mere 6 spot slide.

 

Edited October 5, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

2 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Maybe so but let's find another way to sweeten the Grundy trade than giving Bedford away for a mere 6 spot slide.

 

Trading 27 for 21 is the points equivalent of pick 58 and Lamb already publicly turned down pick 43 for Bedford, so reckon you're correct Luci.

3 hours ago, DeeZone said:

Oyie, layzie a player is worth what someone is willing to pay and after completing his apprenticeship Toby is ready to go. Mid 2nd rounder at the min, he should have played more games for us this year our failure to do so has burnt him, sadly.!!

Hey if they want to get something in the 30s to give to us by all means but they have several picks in the 20s and that is going to be overkill for a guy everyone outside of Melb knows for wearing the sub vest.

1 minute ago, layzie said:

Hey if they want to get something in the 30s to give to us by all means but they have several picks in the 20s and that is going to be overkill for a guy everyone outside of Melb knows for wearing the sub vest.

Harsh - maybe its more of a reflection of everyone outside of Melb knowing our small forwards were not performing to the same level they were in 2021 but our coach being extremely reluctant to make changes or take a few risks with selection or positional changes