49 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Looks at the form lines and the home ground advantage. I'd be surprised if the odds have us as evens at bounce down

Their forrm line is as poor as ours.

They have a home ground advantage, mitigated some what by our form there.

But agree, we likely drift.

I like the even money bet as im super confident we'll win, so if they drift that's even better.

31 minutes ago, gs77 said:

theory of gravity

Gravity isn't a theory, it's a Government conspiracy to keep the people down.

23 minutes ago, von said:

We had inconsistent form from A graders last year too. Why do those who hate loading assume those who are aware of the method think the flag is ours and that’s that. No one has ever said that.

We had 7 nominated in the All Australian squad. Our A graders hardly missed a game last year. 

13 minutes ago, mo64 said:

I've already said that we are probably loading. But it's you that's guessing that we are the only team impacted by it, and are trying to measure it's impact on us. You can't, it's as simple as that. But you can measure the impact of injuries and form.

No one ever said we are the only team impacted by it. Where was that stated? You can measure it by looking at last years strangely similar patterns. When we played well last year we looked a certain way. When we played poorly we looked a certain way. That correlates very well with this year in my eyes. Throw in some injuries and that explains quite a bit I’d say.

1 hour ago, gs77 said:

But it *is* the theory of evolution. A theory supported by overwhelming evidence. For all intents and purposes a fact, just like our theory of gravity, germ theory of disease, etc.

The loading hypothesis will be exposed to some interesting tests in the coming weeks.

Exactly, because no matter how much we think gravity is proven, there may be that one place in the world where you drop an apple and it doesn't hit the ground.

Edited July 24, 20222 yr by layzie

9 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Demonland wouldn't be the same without my criticism. 

It would be too fluffy and joyous all the time.

 

I could live with too fluffy and joyous. 

5 hours ago, mo64 said:

I don't deny that training loading takes place, but if every club that's contending for finals is doing it, then the results amongst those teams is neutralised. Why will we be the only club that miraculously improves in the last 4 rounds?

 

We won't be.

Did someone suggest we we would be?

Leaving loading aside, no one would disagree that the goal for the contenders is to be playing your very best footy prelim final day. 

Lets assume that Dees, Freo, Lions and Cats make the prelims, all have most of their best 22 up and about, all are equally well prepared and are all playing their very bets footy.

The question then becomes whose best is the best?

For me it is a no brainer that the answer is the demons.

Which of course doesn't mean we win the flag.

 

13 minutes ago, binman said:

We won't be.

Did someone suggest we we would be?

Lets assume that Dees, Freo, Lions and Cats

 

Of all the teams that you mention I would suggest our form has been the most 'off', which is probably why mo64 suggests we'd need a miraculous turn around (more than most). Brisbane have had covid, cats aren't loosing and Freos best isn't as good as ours so the magnitude of their comparable slump doesn't seem as severe.

I don't think we're that far off decent form (we played a good bulldogs team yesterday without a few pretty key KPPs and only lost it in the lastfew minutes), however I'm worried about having to try to do some damage in the finals from outside the 8. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Demonstone said:

Gravity isn't a theory, it's a Government conspiracy to keep the people down.

Boom boom

13 minutes ago, DemonWA said:

Of all the teams that you mention I would suggest our form has been the most 'off', which is probably why mo64 suggests we'd need a miraculous turn around (more than most). Brisbane have had covid, cats aren't loosing and Freos best isn't as good as ours so the magnitude of their comparable slump doesn't seem as severe.

 

 

Agree with all of that.

I'd add  that another variable is that, as implied by Scott's comments, is that we go harder in this phase. Would fit the Burgess philosophy 

 

Edited July 24, 20222 yr by binman

3 hours ago, binman said:

Against what odds?

Both teams are even money.

So the bookies have this as a 50 50 game, despite it being at optus.

I guess they don't read demonland

In fairness, we've been strong favourites each of our recent losses and Demonland has more accurately predicted the results...

2 minutes ago, Graeme Yeats' Mullet said:

In fairness, we've been strong favourites each of our recent losses and Demonland has more accurately predicted the results...

True nuff.

 

35 minutes ago, binman said:

Leaving loading aside, no one would disagree that the goal for the contenders is to be playing your very best footy prelim final day. 

Lets assume that Dees, Freo, Lions and Cats make the prelims, all have most of their best 22 up and about, all are equally well prepared and are all playing their very bets footy.

The question then becomes whose best is the best?

For me it is a no brainer that the answer is the demons.

Which of course doesn't mean we win the flag.

 

 

We need to get there first Binman which based on current form seems unlikely and why winning back to back is so difficult. 

Injuries to key personnel have not helped but teams have figured out how to play Melbourne, beat the press and as a result we have become poor defensively in comparison to 2021. How does Melbourne reclaim this advantage?

Its Geelong's to lose from here, I watched them against Port yesterday and they were brilliant and much improved from last year. And I really hate Geelong.

A full strength Lions or Swans will give them a run for their money but we will need to a miracle to win it. .

 

Edited July 24, 20222 yr by Jibroni

As far as I'm concerned we just need to focus on qualifying for the tournament right now in a decent position. 

That and we need to beat Collingwood.

51 minutes ago, binman said:

Agree with all of that.

I'd add  that another variable is that, as implied by Scott's comments, is that we go harder in this phase. Would fit the Burgess philosophy 

 

That added consideration is where I'm unsure and perhaps where I think the whole loading discussion becomes a bridge too far for me, but hope you're on the money. It must be said we played out of our skins through the last finals series and it would be nice to think it wasn't all by chance. As I've said a few times before I feel as though our side had a heap of confidence last year which is a distinguishable difference between the 2 seasons; We beat contenders and hung on in the tight games. Collingwood's ability to get the 4 points in the close ones reminds me of our year last year - everything that could go our way seemed to go our way at times. 

3 hours ago, von said:

It’s possible we’ve gone harder than everyone else because we had the luxury of being 10-0.

Just to throw even more conjecture in I was wondering whether Selwyn Griffiths has gone even harder than Burgess did last year? I remember hearing reports on here about comments from players that the running sessions were even harder (in preseason I think) so perhaps that's continued through the season.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4 weeks. I nervously expect an uptick in performance starting Friday against Freo but while my head is telling me yeah it makes sense my stomach is in a knot of doubt.

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Just to throw even more conjecture in I was wondering whether Selwyn Griffiths has gone even harder than Burgess did last year? I remember hearing reports on here about comments from players that the running sessions were even harder (in preseason I think) so perhaps that's continued through the season.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4 weeks. I nervously expect an uptick in performance starting Friday against Freo but while my head is telling me yeah it makes sense my stomach is in a knot of doubt.

From a pure sports science point of view it would makes sense that our training loads would be higher this year than last for two reasons:

- the same stimulus applied twice doesn’t have the same effect the second time around as the body will be starting from a higher base than when exposed the first time. As such the body is more efficient in coping with the stress and doesn’t adapt to the same degree. At the same time it can cope with more work because of said efficiency so…

- applying a higher load is possible which would not have been achievable the first time round.

It’s called progressive overload and used across all sports in some way shape or form so it would makes sense they have done more this year than last 

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Just to throw even more conjecture in I was wondering whether Selwyn Griffiths has gone even harder than Burgess did last year? I remember hearing reports on here about comments from players that the running sessions were even harder (in preseason I think) so perhaps that's continued through the season.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4 weeks. I nervously expect an uptick in performance starting Friday against Freo but while my head is telling me yeah it makes sense my stomach is in a knot of doubt.

Makes sense to me. Especially given our start to the season. Look at what will get top four and play for that and put as Much work into then as possible. I’m in the same boat as you regarding the last four rounds and I’m convinced I saw signs of it in the first half against the dogs. I’m looking at teams like us, lions and freo to start taking back their mantles to finish out the year. Teams like Collingwood to start falling away. Percentage wise they are the eighth best team I think? They are this years essendon or port. Next year they lose most of the close games and fall back to the pack as they revert to the mean. As the anti loaders love to say it’s all conjecture, and fingers crossed we see it start to come together. 

17 hours ago, binman said:

Our performance ibthe dog's game STRENGTHENS the argument for loading. 

I can't help but laugh at this. 

Because if we lose to Freo, I can't imagine you're going to come out of the woodwork and suggest that it weakens the argument for loading.. 

I wanted to say I am a firm believer in the loading and how it affects high octane athletes. I did some reading on how it is utilised in Soccer and other sports and the "fatigue" is a significant side effect during the "adaptation phase" that can not be understated and can have significant short term ramifications on performance. Not only fatigue was mentioned but also impaired decision-making, lack of skills and mental confidence i.e. fumbling as a short term negative side effect. All have been abundantly obvious within our playing group as of late.

I have a question.

Why were we able to beat WB and Bris in rounds 11 and 12 last year but were already appearing to be completely gassed at the same time this year against Freo and Sydney?

- Is it possible we started earlier this season? and if so why haven't we started tapering earlier, imo we may have added an additional 2 weeks of training as it was so evident how much of an advantage superior fitness was last year.

I only honestly have a hard time doubting any of our elite coaches and fitness staff (proving their competence last year by winning a flag) that they haven't taken everything into consideration and tried to prepare our players' fitness to the utmost level to go back to back. All the talk about us being figured out is nonsense, our gameplan is absolute finals footy and bullet proof if executed correctly.

It was talked about so much "we want to do it in front of our fans", "we want to achieve sustained success". If we are truly falling off a cliff as many on here are saying than I'd have to admit those were just words and no action by the FD. I highly doubt it though, there's something brewing.

Anywho I think this discussion can be put to rest by the end result of Friday nights game (or at latest the game after....)

If (the way I think we will) we come out firing like we did against Brisbane in round 15 and absolutely run on top of the ground the one's who know will know. I believe the reason for your performance against Brisbane was that we had a short taper between loading phases.

I actually can't wait for Friday as it will give us clarity on where we actually stand and can assess the state of our game properly.

 

1 hour ago, —coach— said:

From a pure sports science point of view it would makes sense that our training loads would be higher this year than last for two reasons:

- the same stimulus applied twice doesn’t have the same effect the second time around as the body will be starting from a higher base than when exposed the first time. As such the body is more efficient in coping with the stress and doesn’t adapt to the same degree. At the same time it can cope with more work because of said efficiency so…

- applying a higher load is possible which would not have been achievable the first time round.

It’s called progressive overload and used across all sports in some way shape or form so it would makes sense they have done more this year than last 

And how much benefit can come from this type of loading with a fixture that gives you breaks all over the place, plus travel and then the need for recovery. 

Or was it pre-bye and then into the bye only that we were loading for? 

In which case, where's our spike? 

 

I'll say it again. 

If you have a longer break between games, obviously you can put more 'load' into the legs and have some longer and more intense training. That is obvious. 

Surely that is not the type of loading/periodisation that people are talking about is it? 

 

30 minutes ago, Deenooos_ said:

Why were we able to beat WB and Bris in rounds 11 and 12 last year but were already appearing to be completely gassed at the same time this year against Freo and Sydney?

More conjecture of course, but I've often thought about this point.

Loading in season is rarely executed exactly as the fitness boss would like as there are so many non-fitness goals that also come into play.  One of them is team psychology and the ever elusive "belief".  I think last year our team needed to prove itself against the best to cement the belief that would have been growing after the first 9 rounds.  So I think despite the games you mentioned being right in the middle of the pre-bye loading phase, we perhaps deviated from the ideal training loads in those weeks to give ourselves the best shot of winning.  So at that particular period of the MFC journey, the need to cement belief within the playing group trumped the need to perfectly nail the loading.  Steps would have been taken to minimise the long term effect of that deviation, but it was still deviation.

This year, as reigning premiers, the belief is there, and although no professional athlete or orgnisation likes to lose, the losses we had during this years loading period against other contenders would not create doubt in the team because they have rock solid evidence that at our best, we are good enough.  This meant the coaching group could execute the fitness plan with less deviation from the ideal, knowing that losing would not shake the belief of the  team.

Grand Final day is the 24th of September, so it's less than 2 months to go to see how all this conjecture stacks up.  Despite where all our views land on this, I hope we are all celebrating then.

Maybe:

• freo won because we had a heap of players covering covid absentees and the newbies made cohesiveness harder.  May out early and Freo exploited all that in the second half.
• Sydney and Geelong won because they used different tactics that challenged us.  As Goodwin has said clubs always try new things and we learn from them.
• bulldogs won because we were missing most of our fwd line and key interceptor, Lever.
• Coll won because we had only half our backline.

They as the better teams also exploited our lack of a settled forward line.

Our game relies heavily on defence.  In our losses to top 8 sides only in the Geelong game did we have all of May, Lever, Petty, Salem.  So maybe their and other key player abscences have been significant.

I fully believe we and other clubs use a loading program.  And that there are various loading programs/models available.  Not all clubs will use the same program/model altho in principle they have loading and tapering phase(s).  I just get frustrated with the ardent followers on here when they don't really acknowledge the above facts in our losses, in particular other club's coaching tactics.  Which by the way doesn't mean 'we have been found out'.  It simply means that on the day what they did worked better than what we did.  They just say 'other factors' affect results.  Then happily promote loading in our wins/losses without really knowing which loading program is being followed or when the loading and tapering phases are timed nor how that timing relates to our losses, except guesswork.

So when we lose the first thing that comes up is 'loading'.  And as for a 'loading end' party, please.

And some loading proponents have started talking about how 'lucky' we were last year...

Edited July 25, 20222 yr by Lucifers Hero

59 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

And how much benefit can come from this type of loading with a fixture that gives you breaks all over the place, plus travel and then the need for recovery. 

Or was it pre-bye and then into the bye only that we were loading for? 

In which case, where's our spike? 

 

I'll say it again. 

If you have a longer break between games, obviously you can put more 'load' into the legs and have some longer and more intense training. That is obvious. 

Surely that is not the type of loading/periodisation that people are talking about is it? 

 

Here's the rough map of how I think our loads could have looked using the 10 Percent Rule, which is the rule of thumb for improving running milage.  This method is all about increasing milage (and therefore fitness) without risking injury.  Like many rule of thumbs, there is a lot of conjecture about this one, especially that is is too conservative for experienced and elite runners (which AFL players would be), but it is still a useful principle to look at the method athletes use to increase performance.

1. Round 1 to 9 (WCE) on May 15th we were in maintenance phase at whatever level was reached after our shortened preseason, with minimal (if any) increase in load.
2. Round 10 to 13 (NMFC, Freo, Syd, Coll) - the first phase of the build, incrementally increasing the training load by 10% each week.  If 100% is our maintenance week load, we would have gone 110%, 121%, 133% then 146% in the week before the Collingwood game.
3. 9 day break with the BYE Round - Recovery phase, so reduce training amount by two-thirds of previous week, meaning we are back to 98%.  Come out looking the freshest we have looked for many weeks against Brisbane.
4. Round 16 to 19 (Adel, Cats, Port, Dogs) - Back to loading, starting with a 10% increase from our previous load week (146%) so it is 161%, 177%, 195% then 214% of our original maintence training load.
5. Round 20, reovery week,  so back down to 144%, which because of the work done over the previous 9 weeks, the players can now manage easily, meaning we come out looking fresh against Freo.  Hopefully.
6. Round 21 onwards - back to a maintenance program, which could be at the 214% level, or they might hold at a lower level given they want to maintain "peak" for 8 weeks.

All of this is load is monitored using GPS (recording distance and intensity of milage), plus other metrics that ensure the individuals are reaching but not exceeding the desired fatigue levels.  Using GPS monitoring in games and at training means they can better handle loads despite varied length of breaks between games etc.

If the increased load AFL players can safely manage is actually say 15%, the peak week of the program outlined above would be 306% of the original starting load, which is incredible.

I am keeping the faith in this group the fitness staff and club as a whole this season is a mirroring last lose to Bulldogs in R19 and in R20 we smashed the Suns.

This year in R20 we are going "Home" to a stadium where our greatest triumph in 57 years occured we all go to have faith this is a time for togetherness.

Enjoy the ride, don't fear it, believe in our Demons, believe in the process.