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In Season - Loading/Periodisation: Put your conjecture here.



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10 hours ago, binman said:

A great thing about Demonland is the thread and posting history is saved. 

It is well worth reflecting on the matches at the same stage last year when trying to work out what might be going on this year and to help contextualize and understand our performance (yes, yes, i know its different year and that just because we went on to the win the flag last year doesn't mean we will do so again etc, etc).

Our round 18 game last year was our draw against the hawks. 

A quick flick through the post game thread is interesting in terms of the issues and problems (the symptoms) with our game that the majority of posters (but thankfully not all - these are the ones being lambasted for being 'delusional') are super focused on are almost exactly the same as those being highlighted right now (eg we are too predictable, we don't get value from Max, Goody has been worked out, we are too one dimensional, we are not premiership winning team, our forward line is hopeless, not enough pressure, our small forwards have disappeared, the young players have drooped off, Goody doesn't respond tactically, Goody out coached, sick of all the excuses, etc etc).

Our round 19 game against the Dogs was a loss. Again, largely all the same sort of comments.

Reading the post match thread, you'd think that not only were we a million miles from being a premiership winner, we were all but certain to drop out of the top 4. 

This comment  from @KLVin that thread caught my attention as i skipped though it:

'We’re tired. We’re not chasing, tackling, and gut running like we were'

Sound familiar?

Spoiler alert. 

The dees came out looking an entirely different team the following week - fresher, didn't look the least bit tired or fatigued, energized and well and truly up an about. And flogged the suns in round 20.

And the dees maintained that energy right to the very last second of the Grand Final, destroying every team in it path between that round 20 game and Tmac's post siren kick. 

We were clearly fitter than every team we played from round 20 (just as were from round 1-10). Opposition team simply could not go with us. We ran them into the ground. And that can only happen with superior physical preparation.

Will that happen again this year? Who knows.

We have injury issues this year we didn't have to contend with last year, when everything that could go right for us did go right. Maybe Selwyn has got the timing wrong or players are not working as hard (though, by all accounts they are working even harder). 

But logic suggests that the club is likely to replicate the processes that got us to a flag this year.

Regardless of where you stand on loading, what can't be argued is that in terms of win, losses and performances, the pattern of this season is almost identical to last year. Our ladder position, win loss ratio,  percentages and the period we have had our losses in is almost exactly the same this year as it was last year. 

And the media commentary is almost the same too (variation on the majority of the content in the two threads referenced above). It was dead wrong last year, and will likely be wrong again this year.

But just as we do on Demonland, all the doomsayers will get a free pass for their inaccurate analysis and incorrect predictions.

And next year, when the dees struggle in June and July, rather than looking back and taking history and previous patterns into consideration, they will instead repeat all their inaccurate analysis and incorrect predictions.

Now I really want to watch those games again.

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9 hours ago, von said:

We have had to piece together a backline a lot of the season. The flow on effects from that are that we aren’t statistically where we were last year in some areas although our points against has still been very good.  We had an outstanding run with injury last year. Our offence comes from our team defence and where we turn the ball over. We’ve been turning the ball over too deep and haven’t had the turn over scores from last year.

Interestingly looking at the ladder we have conceded the least points against in the league.

Us, Freo, Cats and Port are the leaders. 

I'm not champion data by any stretch but compared to the league we seem to hold up quiet well. Obviously last Thursday night was an outlier conceding 90 points.

We know the kids are elite at clearance and we know when got our defence is elite.

The problems seem to be related to mids not hitting the scoreboard and inefficiency inside the F50 and or locking it in for repeat entries when getting it in there.

I'm not 100% sure what the issues are and if it relates to personnel or connection or fitness (intensity) but maybe a combination of all?

Will be interesting to see how the next 6 weeks play out but if we don't bring intensity for contest each week we are vulnerable defensively with the way teams move the ball now. 

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1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Awful quiet on this thread.. 

Can the loaders please tell me what phase we're currently in and when we're about to see a significant bounce? 

Been waiting. Thx. 

 

Loading doesn't mean you automatically lose, nor does not loading mean you automatically win. Nor has anyone who has discussed we do load, detailed that it is the ONLY contributing factor to a loss... NOR to a win.

Anyway, we lost against the Bulldogs last year in the same round... (yes, yes, it's a different year). I'd say we will cover the ground a bit better as of next week... around 2 months out...How would you explain what happened from Round 11 last year to the GF - and the variable form line? It wasn't due to the below....

 

Was it due to hunger?

We' d being found out (until we hadn't been)

We didn't have the personnel?

Forward lines not functioning ?

etc etc etc

 

 

Edited by Engorged Onion
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1 hour ago, JimmyGadson said:

Awful quiet on this thread.. 

Can the loaders please tell me what phase we're currently in and when we're about to see a significant bounce? 

Been waiting. Thx. 

Deloading my interest in the 2022 season the current form. 
We are a much less fit side than last year that is obvious. 

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2 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

 

Loading doesn't mean you automatically lose, nor does not loading mean you automatically win. Nor has anyone who has discussed we do load, detailed that it is the ONLY contributing factor to a loss... NOR to a win.

Anyway, we lost against the Bulldogs last year in the same round... (yes, yes, it's a different year). I'd say we will cover the ground a bit better as of next week... around 2 months out...How would you explain what happened from Round 11 last year to the GF - and the variable form line? It wasn't due to the below....

 

Was it due to hunger?

We' d being found out (until we hadn't been)

We didn't have the personnel?

Forward lines not functioning ?

etc etc etc

 

 

I was being highly facetious.

The potting from me is at those who convince themselves loading is a main contributing factor and go on to provide the evidence they believe supports the theory. When really, nobody has a clue. I've never said that those in support of it think it's the only factor in a win or loss.

Nobody has a clue because there are too many factors to take into account from the outside looking in.

Posters have been guessing at which games we might have a dip in vs which ones we might look to have more energy in and from there it becomes confirmation bias for them. But really it could be any number of things. 

Example, a player has a shocking couple of nights sleep before a game due to a sick child.

 

Here are the facts we know:

This time last year we had a healthier and more settled squad.

This time last year our game was in far better order, especially defensively even though we lost to the dogs at the G.

This time last year we had a far easier run home with less travel and more time to recover between games.

This time last year, teams weren't as prepared coming up against our system vs this year.

 

To me, that's all the evidence required when looking at where we are right now as a side. 

The loading thing is such an overblown nonsense imo. And if it really is so significant come september and what we're seeing now is fatigue which is in part a result of loading, I'd argue that the risk vs reward is simply too great given we're likely to slip out of the top four if we don't improve quickly. Because losses sap energy levels too as well as team morale and momentum. So how the hell do we know what we're looking at? We don't, so look at what we do know, which is the above ^.

I would really love to know from someone in the field, (not athletics because AFL is a contact sport), how much loading you can actually be doing at this time of the year with so much travel and so many short turn arounds. And how much impact it would actually have come september. Surely it can only be minimal gains if any given the taxing nature of every game played. Players pulling up sore constantly and the premium on recovery between games. It just doesn't compute.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, JimmyGadson said:

I was being highly facetious.

The potting from me is at those who convince themselves loading is a main contributing factor and go on to provide the evidence they believe supports the theory. When really, nobody has a clue. I've never said that those in support of it think it's the only factor in a win or loss.

Nobody has a clue because there are too many factors to take into account from the outside looking in.

Posters have been guessing at which games we might have a dip in vs which ones we might look to have more energy in and from there it becomes confirmation bias for them. But really it could be any number of things. 

Example, a player has a shocking couple of nights sleep before a game due to a sick child.

 

Here are the facts we know:

This time last year we had a healthier and more settled squad.

This time last year our game was in far better order, especially defensively even though we lost to the dogs at the G.

This time last year we had a far easier run home with less travel and more time to recover between games.

This time last year, teams weren't as prepared coming up against our system vs this year.

 

To me, that's all the evidence required when looking at where we are right now as a side. 

The loading thing is such an overblown nonsense imo. And if it really is so significant come september and what we're seeing now is fatigue which is in part a result of loading, I'd argue that the risk vs reward is simply too great given we're likely to slip out of the top four if we don't improve quickly.

I would really love to know from someone in the field, (not athletics because AFL is a contact sport), how much loading you can actually be doing at this time of the year with so much travel and so many short turn arounds. And how much impact it would actually have come september. Surely it can only be minimal gains if any given the taxing nature of every game played. Players pulling up sore constantly and the premium on recovery between games. It just doesn't compute.

 

 

Maybe you should head back over to the Fritsch needs to be dropped thread. 

You were very opinionated on that thread about how Fritsch needs a good telling off and aligning yourself with all the ex Afl players etc. Hows that worked out.

You'd think maybe you'd be a bit more humble this week. Take a week off.

But no here you are with your inflated opinions on everything.

I'll probably get a ban but fair dinkum Gadstom some posters should get banned from having an opinion for a week when they get it as wrong as you did

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Just now, deespicable me said:

Maybe you should head back over to the Fritsch needs to be dropped thread. 

You were very opinionated on that thread about how Fritsch needs a good telling off and aligning yourself with all the ex Afl players etc. Hows that worked out.

You'd think maybe you'd be a bit more humble this week. Take a week off.

But no here you are with your inflated opinions on everything.

I'll probably get a ban but fair dinkum Gadstom some posters should get banned from having an opinion for a week when they get it as wrong as you did

 

What was I wrong about?

Fritsch responded, passed when he should have and took opportunities that he should have. 

Doesn't change the fact that he made some shockingly selfish decisions in consecutive games.

Demonland wouldn't be the same without my criticism. 

It would be too fluffy and joyous all the time.

 

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3 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

Awful quiet on this thread.. 

Can the loaders please tell me what phase we're currently in and when we're about to see a significant bounce? 

Been waiting. Thx. 

Round 19 2021.

Melbourne 9.11.65

Bulldogs 13.7.85

Dare I say we are in literally exactly the same phase as we were this time last year - but just had a harder draw and a bit less cohesion.

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1 minute ago, The heart beats true said:

Round 19 2021.

Melbourne 9.11.65

Bulldogs 13.7.85

Dare I say we are in literally exactly the same phase as we were this time last year - but just had a harder draw and a bit less cohesion.

Perhaps.

If you look at champ data and our numbers game, we are not in the same type of form. Even though we lost.

Defensively we were much better. Forget the 10 point loss last night versus the 20 point loss at the G.

We conceded 110 points which we haven't done for two years.

The coaches would take that as a bigger loss. 

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I found this interesting during the week. 
 

After a very long winded statement/question by Andy Maher starting at 2:30 in (showing how little he understands modern AFL) McRae talks about the version of loading Collingwood have been doing. They have used 7 and 8 day breaks to do extra sessions, putting additional kms into the legs and there had been measurable negative cost in games, all to improve fitness and performance in finals. 
 

The key take away for me was it seemed for them (CFC) to be a very opportunistic approach rather than a long term plan which I believe the MFC have implemented. The obvious reason for this is we were 10-0 while they were 5-5.

I predicted we’d go 2-3 post bye, so I’m not at all surprised no obvious improvement has yet been seen. We actually had a better record than I thought. It is nearing crunch time though, and the next month will either leave me with egg on my face or otherwise. 

Edited by Vipercrunch
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29 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:
The key take away for me was it seemed for them (CFC) to be a very opportunistic approach rather than a long term plan which I believe the MFC have implemented. The obvious reason for this is we were 10-0 while they were 5-5.

Some points:

They talked about McCrae's experience at the Lions so it couldn't have been that opportunistic. 

MCrae talked about loading in the last 4 to 6 weeks ie during and since the bye, so we can't really attribute their losses early in the season when 5/5 to loading.  

To me it sounds a similar program to the Cats who have been loading during and from the bye.

Since both clubs started loading neither has lost a game in months so their loading program hasn't had the serious affect on performance as ours ostensibly has ie they still win.  If Coll win today both teams will have won 9 consecutive games while loading.  We have won 4 of the last 9.

According to the proponents of loading on DL our 3 straight losses were largely due to loading.  But those games were before the bye which makes the loading program timing rather different to Geelong and Collingwood. 

Time will tell if they have peaked early.

Edited by Lucifers Hero
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17 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Some points:

They talked about McCrae's experience at the Lions so it couldn't have been that opportunistic. 

MCrae talked about loading in the last 4 to 6 weeks ie during and since the bye, so we can't really attribute their losses early in the season when 5/5 to loading.  

To me it sounds a similar program to the Cats who have been loading during and from the bye.

Since both clubs started loading neither has lost a game in months so their loading program hasn't had the serious affect on performance as ours ostensibly has ie they still win.  If Coll win today both teams will have won 9 consecutive games while loading.  We have won 4 of the last 9.

According to the proponents of loading on DL our 3 straight losses were largely due to loading.  But those games were before the bye which makes the loading program timing rather different to Geelong and Collingwood. 

Time will tell if they have peaked early.

I think you've misunderstood - the fact they were 5-5 while we were 10-0 meant we could go harder earlier while they had to ensure they still racked up enough wins to qualify for finals so could only add in those opportunistic sessions on longer breaks between games. Similar to Geelong who were 6-4 after round 10.

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2 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

I was being highly facetious.

The potting from me is at those who convince themselves loading is a main contributing factor and go on to provide the evidence they believe supports the theory. When really, nobody has a clue. I've never said that those in support of it think it's the only factor in a win or loss.

Nobody has a clue because there are too many factors to take into account from the outside looking in.

Posters have been guessing at which games we might have a dip in vs which ones we might look to have more energy in and from there it becomes confirmation bias for them. But really it could be any number of things. 

Example, a player has a shocking couple of nights sleep before a game due to a sick child.

 

Here are the facts we know:

This time last year we had a healthier and more settled squad.

This time last year our game was in far better order, especially defensively even though we lost to the dogs at the G.

This time last year we had a far easier run home with less travel and more time to recover between games.

This time last year, teams weren't as prepared coming up against our system vs this year.

 

To me, that's all the evidence required when looking at where we are right now as a side. 

The loading thing is such an overblown nonsense imo. And if it really is so significant come september and what we're seeing now is fatigue which is in part a result of loading, I'd argue that the risk vs reward is simply too great given we're likely to slip out of the top four if we don't improve quickly. Because losses sap energy levels too as well as team morale and momentum. So how the hell do we know what we're looking at? We don't, so look at what we do know, which is the above ^.

I would really love to know from someone in the field, (not athletics because AFL is a contact sport), how much loading you can actually be doing at this time of the year with so much travel and so many short turn arounds. And how much impact it would actually have come september. Surely it can only be minimal gains if any given the taxing nature of every game played. Players pulling up sore constantly and the premium on recovery between games. It just doesn't compute.

 

 

You don’t listen very well Jimmy (other than to your own voice).

The loading camp were of the view that it would be highly unlikely that we would beat both Port & Dogs. 1 out of 2 does the job. 

The second half fade outs either suggest we are unfit and will completely fall over from here. Or if it’s as us deluded loaders think, there will be an uptick from this Friday :- Make sure you don’t go missing when we win. 
 

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21 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Some points:

They talked about McCrae's experience at the Lions so it couldn't have been that opportunistic. 

MCrae talked about loading in the last 4 to 6 weeks ie during and since the bye, so we can't really attribute their losses early in the season when 5/5 to loading.  

To me it sounds a similar program to the Cats who have been loading during and from the bye.

Since both clubs started loading neither has lost a game in months so their loading program hasn't had the serious affect on performance as ours ostensibly has ie they still win.  If Coll win today both teams will have won 9 consecutive games while loading.  We have won 4 of the last 9.

According to the proponents of loading on DL our 3 straight losses were largely due to loading.  But those games were before the bye which makes the loading program timing rather different to Geelong and Collingwood. 

Time will tell if they have peaked early.

My reference to opportunistic was to do with his comment that they added additional load based on how many days break they had between games. It is “as opportunity allowed”, where because of our wins banked early, we could go harder and more planned, regardless of the draw (opponents and days break). Nothing to do with McRae’s time at the Lions.
 

Collingwood (5-5) and Geelong (6-4) weren’t in a position to allow loading before the bye, where us, at 10-0 were. As had been said all along, 10-0 gave us the luxury of being able to do more and risk more. 

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think you've misunderstood - the fact they were 5-5 while we were 10-0 meant we could go harder earlier while they had to ensure they still racked up enough wins to qualify for finals so could only add in those opportunistic sessions on longer breaks between games. Similar to Geelong who were 6-4 after round 10.

 

4 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

My reference to opportunistic was to do with his comment that they added additional load based on how many days break they had between games. It is “as opportunity allowed”, where because of our wins banked early, we could go harder and more planned, regardless of the draw (opponents and days break). Nothing to do with McRae’s time at the Lions.
 

Collingwood (5-5) and Geelong (6-4) weren’t in a position to allow loading before the bye, where us, at 10-0 were. As had been said all along, 10-0 gave us the luxury of being able to do more and risk more. 

Ok, I get your interpretation of timing.

However, they have managed to win every game while loading and we haven't.

If we don't make top 4 from a 10-0 start it will be a poor second half of the season.

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3 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

Round 19 2021.

Melbourne 9.11.65

Bulldogs 13.7.85

Dare I say we are in literally exactly the same phase as we were this time last year - but just had a harder draw and a bit less cohesion.

And more injuries.

2021 was arguably the greatest, most dominant season for an AFL club in the modern era. We didn't lose by more than 4 goals and could have won all those 4 losses.

People expecting us to replicate that A+++ season are kidding themselves.

Yet... despite the constant injuries, a poorly functioning forwardline and a lack of continuity in our defensive set up (how we win games), we're second on the ladder with destiny in our hands.

I expect we'll see a response in the next month. I expect we'll finish in the top 4, but I've been wrong before.

Edited by A F
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1 hour ago, 1964_2 said:

You don’t listen very well Jimmy (other than to your own voice).

The loading camp were of the view that it would be highly unlikely that we would beat both Port & Dogs. 1 out of 2 does the job. 

The second half fade outs either suggest we are unfit and will completely fall over from here. Or if it’s as us deluded loaders think, there will be an uptick from this Friday :- Make sure you don’t go missing when we win. 
 

Exactly.

I said I'd be shocked if we won both, not surprised if we lost both (which we easily could have done) and happy if we split these two games.

Our performance ibthe dog's game STRENGTHENS the argument for loading. 

But tbete is little point debating the topic now.

If you don't buy it now, you never will - even if, like magic we start running out games and running our opponents into the ground from here on in (which we will).

Personally I can't wait until this week's game. 

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16 minutes ago, A F said:

And more injuries.

2021 was arguably the greatest, most dominant season for an AFL club in the modern era. We didn't lose by more than 4 goals and could have won all those 4 losses.

People expecting us to replicate that A+++ season are kidding themselves.

Yet... despite the constant injuries, a poorly functioning forwardline and a lack of continuity in our defensive set up (how we win games), we're second on the ladder with destiny in our hands.

I expect we'll see a response in the next month. I expect we'll finish in the top 4, but I've been wrong before.

And we had way more luck last year. 

For example, in the corresponding round 20 game, we were supposed to play the suns on their home deck.

Yes  we had to fly up and fly back, but when the game was canned on hame day because of a lock down in qld, we got to play it at tbe docklands instead (with the suns having to fly down).

 

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15 minutes ago, binman said:

And we had way more luck last year. 

For example, in the corresponding round 20 game, we were supposed to play the suns on their home deck.

Yes  we had to fly up and fly back, but when the game was canned on hame day because of a lock down in qld, we got to play it at tbe docklands instead (with the suns having to fly down).

 

True, good point. Lots of luck last year. The Suns game is a very good example, but we also faced numerous opposition without key players. The early Geelong game at the MCG is one. The lack of crowd down at GMHBA in Round 23 was probably a huge factor too. 

As I say though, you couldn't ask for a more perfect season.

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