Wow . . . lots of envy on here from a joint that has been extraordinarily well run for close to 20 years. Good on them for maximising their natural advantages and negating their disadvantages. If only we had the right people in the right roles at the right time . . .  

6 hours ago, A F said:

The neoliberal EU is about to disintegrate. That was a construct created by the French Socialists. Will the Democrats realise who they're supposed to represent? Who knows, but if they don't they'll be voted out. The neoliberal period has been a disaster for wages and the earth we're living on. The golden age of capitalism saw a full employment agenda. That needs to return.

As for the size of the crash, the RBA are modelling a 50% contraction of the housing market and the big banks are putting aside billions to protect themselves against defaulted loans. Problem is it'll be nowhere near big enough. The Fed Gov will backstop them, but that will only prolong the problem. There's too much private debt.

I reckon there'll be an election in August to coincide with the Senate half elections. If the stimulus is lifted in March as predicted, there'll be mass defaults, on the eve of an election.

I have been working on the assumption that the asset bubble has one more big blow to go. Wondering if Biden's election might mean that the last lungful of massive debt creation might go into actual investment in - infrastructure (not fossil-fuel based) and manufacturing (3d Printing) both of which will de-centralise the economy and raise the cost of transportation (shipping) which will encourage localized economic activity (ie. not in China) and therefore employment. The US's demographics are very good going forward, China's are absolutely disastrous, not sure about AUS. 

This wouldn't prevent the collapse of neo-liberalism (thank god) but might set the West up for renewal once the rubble is cleared away.... 

My timeline is 2025, but I'm willing to bring that forward. Is COVID just too much stress on a flawed model?

$40M for only an increase of 4,000 seats

makes sense ?

1 hour ago, Grr-owl said:

I have been working on the assumption that the asset bubble has one more big blow to go. Wondering if Biden's election might mean that the last lungful of massive debt creation might go into actual investment in - infrastructure (not fossil-fuel based) and manufacturing (3d Printing) both of which will de-centralise the economy and raise the cost of transportation (shipping) which will encourage localized economic activity (ie. not in China) and therefore employment. The US's demographics are very good going forward, China's are absolutely disastrous, not sure about AUS. 

This wouldn't prevent the collapse of neo-liberalism (thank god) but might set the West up for renewal once the rubble is cleared away.... 

My timeline is 2025, but I'm willing to bring that forward. Is COVID just too much stress on a flawed model?

Yeah, I think Trump had some things right at a superficial level. We need capital controls to return. Financialisation and speculation (things kicked off by Hawke and Keating in this country and put on steroids by Howard and Costello) do not contribute to the public purpose and pump up GDP, but also leave real wages flatlining. That's not good for firms or households.

We need to focus on our domestic economy. That doesn't mean we can't have international partnerships, but neoliberalism has lead to wage stagnation and instability, and eventually populism.

It may well have one more push left it in, but if deficit spending doesn't take centre stage soon and allow households and businesses to save, it will buckle.

When Clinton ran consecutive surpluses at the end of the 90s and triggered the dot com bubble recession (every US Depression by the way, was proceeded by the Fed running consecutive fiscal surpluses), it seemed like people would realise debt driven economies were unsustainable. Incredibly though, households and firms started borrowing even more and it triggered the GFC, which started in the housing market.

Australia was obviously particularly well sheltered from this, but the downside of that is we've learnt no market discipline and so banks continue irresponsible lending and governments (mostly LNP) have encouraged and are encouraging more and more debt in the private sector.

I think COVID definitely sped up the process, but we've been in per capita recession since 2018 and if you look at real wages and household savings since the 1980s, they've been in steep decline.

In terms of asset classes, PMs are about the only undervalued asset class with ties to fundamentals. I keep telling my friends who are interested in getting into the housing market, if you can, wait a year or two, because you'd be buying at the peak of the market.

As for the future, I think when enough people are frustrated, there eventually comes a tipping point. Unless our major parties provide a genuine alternative, someone else will. Despite this, I'm genuinely positive about the future, because there are ways and means to increase living standards and wealth creation in our own country, without being reliant on FDI and running a surplus on the trade account (which we rarely do anyway).

What's wrong with China's demographics? 

We can't get too tied up in knots with what Geelong is getting.  They are a marginal electorate federally and at State level, so they will get the oil for the squeaky wheel.

The promising sign is what was written about the matter in The Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/gmhba-stadium-to-reach-40-000-capacity-after-funding-boost-20201107-p56ce8.html

"The decision will be encouraging for several AFL clubs with applications for infrastructure project funding pending with the state government as they look to rebound from a tough year hampered by the COVID-19 restrictions".

i.e Geelong won't be the only ones, and given that we have been in the State Governments ear for years, and have a plan ready for shovels, we should also be in for funding.

Let's hope it happens soon. 

Edited November 8, 20204 yr by george_on_the_outer

7 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

We can't get too tied up in knots with what Geelong is getting.  They are a marginal electorate federally and at State level, so they will get the oil for the squeaky wheel.

The promising sign is what was written about the matter in The Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/gmhba-stadium-to-reach-40-000-capacity-after-funding-boost-20201107-p56ce8.html

"The decision will be encouraging for several AFL clubs with applications for infrastructure project funding pending with the state government as they look to rebound from a tough year hampered by the COVID-19 restrictions".

i.e Geelong won't be the only ones, and given that we have been in the State Governments ear for years, and have a plan ready for shovels, we should also be in for funding.

Let's hope it happens soon. 

Sounds like we’re finally going to get a dunny on the paddock. Woo. 

Edited November 8, 20204 yr by Ethan Tremblay

17 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

We can't get too tied up in knots with what Geelong is getting.  They are a marginal electorate federally and at State level, so they will get the oil for the squeaky wheel.

The promising sign is what was written about the matter in The Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/gmhba-stadium-to-reach-40-000-capacity-after-funding-boost-20201107-p56ce8.html

"The decision will be encouraging for several AFL clubs with applications for infrastructure project funding pending with the state government as they look to rebound from a tough year hampered by the COVID-19 restrictions".

i.e Geelong won't be the only ones, and given that we have been in the State Governments ear for years, and have a plan ready for shovels, we should also be in for funding.

Let's hope it happens soon. 

Well, George. it will need to be a very good plan as I cannot see how a Labor Governement can sell an elite performance CBD based facility for the MFC. All that is in that is supporters/voters of other Clubs seeing it as a waste of money. I will not be convinced until it happens. 

49 minutes ago, A F said:

Yeah, I think Trump had some things right at a superficial level. We need capital controls to return. Financialisation and speculation (things kicked off by Hawke and Keating in this country and put on steroids by Howard and Costello) do not contribute to the public purpose and pump up GDP, but also leave real wages flatlining. That's not good for firms or households.

We need to focus on our domestic economy. That doesn't mean we can't have international partnerships, but neoliberalism has lead to wage stagnation and instability, and eventually populism.

It may well have one more push left it in, but if deficit spending doesn't take centre stage soon and allow households and businesses to save, it will buckle.

When Clinton ran consecutive surpluses at the end of the 90s and triggered the dot com bubble recession (every US Depression by the way, was proceeded by the Fed running consecutive fiscal surpluses), it seemed like people would realise debt driven economies were unsustainable. Incredibly though, households and firms started borrowing even more and it triggered the GFC, which started in the housing market.

Australia was obviously particularly well sheltered from this, but the downside of that is we've learnt no market discipline and so banks continue irresponsible lending and governments (mostly LNP) have encouraged and are encouraging more and more debt in the private sector.

I think COVID definitely sped up the process, but we've been in per capita recession since 2018 and if you look at real wages and household savings since the 1980s, they've been in steep decline.

In terms of asset classes, PMs are about the only undervalued asset class with ties to fundamentals. I keep telling my friends who are interested in getting into the housing market, if you can, wait a year or two, because you'd be buying at the peak of the market.

As for the future, I think when enough people are frustrated, there eventually comes a tipping point. Unless our major parties provide a genuine alternative, someone else will. Despite this, I'm genuinely positive about the future, because there are ways and means to increase living standards and wealth creation in our own country, without being reliant on FDI and running a surplus on the trade account (which we rarely do anyway).

What's wrong with China's demographics? 

Cheers. Great reply.

What are PM's?

China will have 2 workers for every 1 not. John Lee's work is worth looking into. Some smart people involved at the top in Aus's China policy.  

41 minutes ago, george_on_the_outer said:

We can't get too tied up in knots with what Geelong is getting.  They are a marginal electorate federally and at State level, so they will get the oil for the squeaky wheel.

The promising sign is what was written about the matter in The Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/gmhba-stadium-to-reach-40-000-capacity-after-funding-boost-20201107-p56ce8.html

"The decision will be encouraging for several AFL clubs with applications for infrastructure project funding pending with the state government as they look to rebound from a tough year hampered by the COVID-19 restrictions".

i.e Geelong won't be the only ones, and given that we have been in the State Governments ear for years, and have a plan ready for shovels, we should also be in for funding.

Let's hope it happens soon. 

There’s never been a better time to have our hands out.

To keep the construction sector afloat during the recession and Dan’s friends in the construction unions onside the state government will pursue a program of infrastructure spending and grants to support major projects. As long as we can articulate the “community benefit” we should be able to obtain a tidy contribution to the cause.

26 minutes ago, Better days ahead said:

There’s never been a better time to have our hands out.

To keep the construction sector afloat during the recession and Dan’s friends in the construction unions onside the state government will pursue a program of infrastructure spending and grants to support major projects. As long as we can articulate the “community benefit” we should be able to obtain a tidy contribution to the cause.

I do not see what  Community we would be benefiting in that golden mile of ground we are set on for our development. Our would not be a major project, more a boutique enclave. Perhaps there is but I have not heard of any community benefit/facilities we are planning for residents within walking distance.

When they do get to that 40k capacity it’s time the AFL force Geelong to increase allocation to away fans up to a national minimum standard. I would be saying about 5000 seats and not in a s-hole pocket but behind opposing goals. Particularly as this upgrade is getting paid by the government and not through Geelong’s coffers  

If they want to host more Victorian teams then they need to start letting more of those fans in. 

1 minute ago, Pates said:

When they do get to that 40k capacity it’s time the AFL force Geelong to increase allocation to away fans up to a national minimum standard. I would be saying about 5000 seats and not in a s-hole pocket but behind opposing goals. Particularly as this upgrade is getting paid by the government and not through Geelong’s coffers  

If they want to host more Victorian teams then they need to start letting more of those fans in. 

A very good point you raise. On the one hand the AFL encourage teams to give up their home grounds and the advantages that gave for performance on field and fans off it. Now we have funds going into only one Victorian teams home facilities. I long since stopped seeing the MCG as our home ground. Actually think it was around the late 60s I worked that out. 

22 hours ago, COOLX said:

The Southern stand of the MCG is getting torn down next year . The new infrastructure is going to cost 70 million dollars. Also the 3000 new police will soon get will cost the state 200 million per year. Andrews is going to bankrupt this state.

Feels like only yesterday that they built the "Great" Southern Stand. What's the new one going to be called? The Greater Southern Stand?

1 hour ago, Grr-owl said:

Cheers. Great reply.

What are PM's?

China will have 2 workers for every 1 not. John Lee's work is worth looking into. Some smart people involved at the top in Aus's China policy.  

No worries.

Precious metals. You can't pay your taxes in PMs but enough of the population still have no idea how modern monetary operations work. Crypto currencies for a start are ridiculous. They'll never be taken up, because the currency issuer provisions itself by issuing and then taxing.

China understands its fiscal capacity. I think they'll be fine if they can maintain power and stay away from wars.

I'll check out John Lee though. I was producing a project on the OBR at one point. It's fascinating.

Edited November 8, 20204 yr by A F

1 hour ago, Better days ahead said:

There’s never been a better time to have our hands out.

To keep the construction sector afloat during the recession and Dan’s friends in the construction unions onside the state government will pursue a program of infrastructure spending and grants to support major projects. As long as we can articulate the “community benefit” we should be able to obtain a tidy contribution to the cause.

You say 'Dan's friends', but what you're really talking about is media hysteria. The ALP haven't been remotely unionist since the 1970s. The unions represent corporate power. They've been apart of the wage suppression through the neoliberal period (Shorten negotiated some shocking deals for workers and Hawke was the first president of the ACTU put in place by the executive arm). It was Hawke and Keating who smashed the unions with their multiple accords in the 1980s.

If we put a strong plan together that embodies 'Melbourne' and employs people (ie jobs), I think you'll find the proposal will get through. Particularly, as we're one of those rare businesses right now without debt, it's a no brainer.

 

8 minutes ago, A F said:

You say 'Dan's friends', but what you're really talking about is media hysteria. The ALP haven't been remotely unionist since the 1970s. The unions represent corporate power. They've been apart of the wage suppression through the neoliberal period (Shorten negotiated some shocking deals for workers and Hawke was the first president of the ACTU put in place by the executive arm). It was Hawke and Keating who smashed the unions with their multiple accords in the 1980s.

If we put a strong plan together that embodies 'Melbourne' and employs people (ie jobs), I think you'll find the proposal will get through. Particularly, as we're one of those rare businesses right now without debt, it's a no brainer.

 

Beg to differ Dan rose to power with CFMEU support.

On 11/7/2020 at 6:44 PM, Pickett2Jackson said:

Serious question  -  is the Victorian premier a Geelong supporter?

Don’t know, but I do not know he’s a shocking premier. 

Just on the big clubs getting bigger.
Methcoke declared they lost 44million in revenue this season.
That's how far we are behind the big clubs.

On 11/7/2020 at 6:14 PM, Pickett2Jackson said:

Serious question  -  is the Victorian premier a Geelong supporter?

Now that’s interesting cos I was looking at Gabletts new book and as the siren sounded in 2007, there is a pic of Costa and Cook embracing. I thought I saw a baby faced Daniel Andrews about 2 rows back. 
Bracks and Baillieu Geelong supporters. Probably Napthine, dunno - was Western District

On 11/7/2020 at 9:21 PM, COOLX said:

The Southern stand of the MCG is getting torn down next year . The new infrastructure is going to cost 70 million dollars. Also the 3000 new police will soon get will cost the state 200 million per year. Andrews is going to bankrupt this state.

Bankrupting the state was his plan from the beginning.  

Whats the point of opening the borders if you have mandatory mask wearing?   Nobody from interstate will want to go to Vic.   Tourism will be dead.

7 hours ago, gs77 said:

Feels like only yesterday that they built the "Great" Southern Stand. What's the new one going to be called? The Greater Southern Stand?

30 years ago in 1991 Great Southern Stand.

8 hours ago, Half forward flank said:

A very good point you raise. On the one hand the AFL encourage teams to give up their home grounds and the advantages that gave for performance on field and fans off it. Now we have funds going into only one Victorian teams home facilities. I long since stopped seeing the MCG as our home ground. Actually think it was around the late 60s I worked that out. 

That's ridiculous HFF only Richmond  played there with us from 1966 on 

Then in about early 80's aSunday game and later on Friday night started with North mainly.

In middle 90's Bombers Pies Hawks all started sharing then I think Telstra Dome about 2000 started and some Clubs got shared home grounds with Dogs Roos Saints  and Dons and Blues.

So you are only about 30 years out HFF In our real share with other teams except for Tigers which doesn't cover any real loss then in a 12 team comp ie the old AFL.

2 hours ago, 58er said:

That's ridiculous HFF only Richmond  played there with us from 1966 on 

Then in about early 80's aSunday game and later on Friday night started with North mainly.

In middle 90's Bombers Pies Hawks all started sharing then I think Telstra Dome about 2000 started and some Clubs got shared home grounds with Dogs Roos Saints  and Dons and Blues.

So you are only about 30 years out HFF In our real share with other teams except for Tigers which doesn't cover any real loss then in a 12 team comp ie the old AFL.

You really have a think for arguing the toss with me. Factually the MCG was a shared home ground from 1966. Now, a shared home ground is not a home ground, it is a shared home ground. Even as a 9 year old I could see we had lost our greatest advantage.  Kids in the playground. said well how can it be your home ground and richmonds too. By the late sixties I would go to a Richmond home game at the MCG where they were playing us. It never was, nor felt the same again.

10 hours ago, Pickett2Jackson said:

Bankrupting the state was his plan from the beginning.  

Whats the point of opening the borders if you have mandatory mask wearing?   Nobody from interstate will want to go to Vic.   Tourism will be dead.

Fair point.
I live on the Vic/NSW border and cross the river regularly into NSW to either shop or drop the kids off at school.
It's like the land of the free over there 2kms from my house.
And you're rght, they don't have to wear masks and be forked if they want to travel anywhere they have to.

 

The issue here is not the government grant for the stadium. No club has paid for the construction of its game day stadium.

The issue is that all the other clubs pay ground rent each time they use the stadium whereas Geelong doesn't.

Ground rents come in multiple forms including share of gate receipts,advertising,catering rights etc.

Transparency in stadium deals given that they are taxpayer funded would be a good start. There's no reason for them to be commercial in confidence given that there is no alternative provider/customer.