THE RUN HOME 2020

[Elegt 872]

2 minutes ago, Demonland said:

I wasn't even thinking of a scenario where the Bulldogs drop a game but win the other by 80 points. Add that one to the list of nightmare scenarios.

we have a +55 score differential ahead of them, haven't calculated what that would look like percentage wise after 2 more games

[Demonland 73,140]

1 minute ago, Elegt said:

we have a +55 score differential ahead of them, haven't calculated what that would look like percentage wise after 2 more games

Freo should be competitive against them despite having nothing to play for but Hawthorn will probably roll over and Bulldogs should get a nice percentage boost.

We really need to thump Essendon so percentage won't be an issue if it's going to come down to that.

[Elegt 872]

9 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Freo should be competitive against them despite having nothing to play for but Hawthorn will probably roll over and Bulldogs should get a nice percentage boost.

We really need to thump Essendon so percentage won't be an issue if it's going to come down to that.

If GWS beat the Saints we need to Make up 5.2%, approx ~52 points. Super tough ask in a season with short quarters

[Demonland 73,140]

3 minutes ago, Elegt said:

If GWS beat the Saints we need to Make up 5.2%, approx ~52 points. Super tough ask in a season with short quarters

That’s where GWS can help us out. 

 Our own fault for being in a position to rely on others. If we had just won one of the last two all this would be a moot point. 

[bandicoot 1,395]

12 minutes ago, Elegt said:

If GWS beat the Saints we need to Make up 5.2%, approx ~52 points. Super tough ask in a season with short quarters

Probability of this very low... which pretty much relies on dogs to lose.

Ridiculous that dees left themselves in this position. 

couldn’t muster up enough will to beat the 16th and 12th placed sides. 

goodwins lack of effective game style is taxing on the players and results in them having lapses. 

They still don’t have a kick out strategy unless it revolves around kicking it to max. No wonder he is the walking wounded. 

[DubDee 26,117]

It’s sad that we’ve blown our season over the past 2 weeks. We can look a decent team. 

very unlikely we play finals but who knows. 

[Lucifers Hero 40,359]

I'm optimistic that Freo can beat the Bulldogs next week. 

They have developed the 'possession/control' game plan ala Eagles, Cats that works very well vs 'chaos/play on' teams.  Freo have been in Cairns for a few weeks so are more acclimatised to the weather.

Next round will be nerve ranking, especially if we beat Ess and we have to sit around and wait for the Freo/WBD.  Deja vu to 2017; hopefully with a better result.

If we make finals we can do some damage in the early rounds by playing the way we played last night.

[pewpewpew 738]

There is no way Hawthorn gets close to the Bulldogs. This is the team that lost to Adelaide. Bulldogs will crush them. 

 Freo on the other hand are playing with pride and will relish the opportunity to effect the Final 8. Not saying they’ll knock the bulldogs off but they won’t roll over. 

[pewpewpew 738]

22 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

I'm optimistic that Freo can beat the Bulldogs next week. 

They have developed the 'possession/control' game plan ala Eagles, Cats that works very well vs 'chaos/play on' teams.  Freo have been in Cairns for a few weeks so are more acclimatised to the weather.

Next round will be nerve ranking, especially if we beat Ess and we have to sit around and wait for the Freo/WBD.  Deja vu to 2017; hopefully with a better result.

If we make finals we can do some damage in the early rounds by playing the way we played last night.

It’s only Deja vu to 2017 because we blew our chance to shape our own destiny and then had to sweat on other results. 

 In fact this time we’re relying on low teams to beat higher teams. Even top placed Adelaide couldn’t help us in 2017. 

[raDeelaide 248]

I woke up in sweats last night from a nightmare that we were relying on Port Adelaide to beat Collingwood in the final game of the Home & Away season only for them to have already sewn up top spot & a home Final. 

 They rested most of their players and got rolled by the Magpies & we missed out. 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

7 hours ago, Elegt said:

If GWS beat the Saints we need to Make up 5.2%, approx ~52 points. Super tough ask in a season with short quarters

If Giants beat Saints by 3 goals for example,  red have to beat Essendon by roughly 6 goals. 

Yes it's a tough ask but it is possible. Will be barracking hard for Giants next week! 

 

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

9 minutes ago, Hell Bent said:

If Giants beat Saints by 3 goals for example,  red have to beat Essendon by roughly 6 goals. 

Yes it's a tough ask but it is possible. Will be barracking hard for Giants next week! 

 

I just checked on the Squiggle Ladder predictor

If the Giants beat Saints by 25, and we beat Essendon by 23 we will play finals.  So thats a good guide.

[Lucifers Hero 40,359]

16 minutes ago, pewpewpew said:

It’s only Deja vu to 2017 because we blew our chance to shape our own destiny and then had to sweat on other results. 

 In fact this time we’re relying on low teams to beat higher teams. Even top placed Adelaide couldn’t help us in 2017. 

Adelaide tanked! 

They rested players and iirc they made some unbelievable decisions during the game to avoid scoring.  They had the 'Live Ladder' at the ground so they could see exactly the score they needed to lose to keep us out.  They didn't want us in the finals and they wanted a better draft pick (they held our 1st rnd pick).

Very different this time.

The Deja vu I was referring to was having to sit and wait after messing up our chances to make finals in our own right.

[Lucifers Hero 40,359]

Our finals pathways:

Melbourne has a number of options of how to play finals from here - all reliant on them beating the Bombers.

- If the Saints lose to the Giants, and if it’s a big enough loss to impact the percentage gap, the Demons should make it;

- If the Bulldogs lose at least once, the Demons should make it;

- If the Magpies lose twice, the Demons should make it.

top-eight-race-ladder-predictor

[BDA 22,875]

It’s been said elsewhere but GWS and ST Kilda playing before us next week is huge. GWS will have to put it all on the line and if they play like they did last night then I think they win. But it’ll be tight.

I’ve just watched the highlights from the Port and Essendon game. The bombers are an absolute rabble. They’ve checked out. If we bring the same attitude and intensity as last night then we can win by 6 goals I reckon.

I imbibed a little too much wine last night so the head is in no shape to work through the permutations but a GWS win together with us making up enough percentage gets us into the 8 no matter what the bulldogs do. Is that right?

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,490]

There’s a part of me that would prefer all of the games in the final round to be played at the same time, a la 1987. 

[billyblanks29 184]

Control what we can control and that's winning next week. Bring even more intensity and dare to win.

Take the learnings and positives into next year. IMHO if we finish 9th or 8th we've improved on last year. We are a middle of the ladder side. 

[Elegt 872]

2 hours ago, pewpewpew said:

It’s only Deja vu to 2017 because we blew our chance to shape our own destiny and then had to sweat on other results. 

 In fact this time we’re relying on low teams to beat higher teams. Even top placed Adelaide couldn’t help us in 2017. 

From memory jake lever cost them/us the game when he coughed the ball up in the backline

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,878]

Can't believe I'll be supporting Hawthorn to win later this afternoon.  It's a low probability I know, but it wouldn't altogether surprise me with all the pressure that Clarkson has been under that the pull a win from out of their [censored].  Would be a great result for us of they did as it would put our destiny right back in our hands (although I'm not sure that's a good thing given the way we often seem to perform in such circumstances!).

[leave it to deever 17,517]

10 hours ago, Elegt said:

If GWS beat the Saints we need to Make up 5.2%, approx ~52 points. Super tough ask in a season with short quarters

Yep it will be very very hard to close the  gap.

Weid will probably have to kick 7 amd there is no rain. We will also need the umpires to do a good job.

The look latter part of the equation is a big ask as well given how terrible the maggots have been against us.

Our best bet is hoping the hawks beat the dogs today. I feel so dirty wishing this.

 

[rjay 25,087]

With the Hawks tanking and something not right at GWS it's hard to see us making it.

Destiny as always was in our own hands but now we rely on others.

Will be a miracle to make it from here but miracles do happen.

[Half forward flank 1,022]

All we can do is win, pretty obvious, but if we fall short Goody has to take off next year where we left off. Be open to Viney not being in the centre square at the start of each game. Harmes is not a half back,  Brayshaw is not a wingman, Brown fills Watts role. Keep a settled backline. Settle jackson into the side. Encourage Jordan, Sparrow.

[BDA 22,875]

13 hours ago, Elegt said:

Top work Elegt

[At Least I Saw a Flag 5,274]

Bulldogs will probably win their last 2 games, although Freo is in good form, so a slight chance there.

No way the filth will lose to GC.

GWS may well beat the Saints, but we won't catch the Saints percentage.

 

 

[titan_uranus 25,043]

I know shorter quarters are a thing but we've already won four games this year by 43 points or more.

If we do that again, we'd then only need GWS to win by a goal or two to pass St Kilda's percentage.

It also means a pair of results by 24 points can do it.

Having said that, St Kilda's only lost three games this year by more than a goal, and one was this week when they lost by 15. So it's not particularly likely for them to lose by a lot.