THE RUN HOME 2020

[Ted Lasso 17,123]

North Melbourne W

Collingwood   L

Western Bulldogs  L

Essendon   W

Fremantle   W

GWS Giants  L 

St Kilda    L

Sydney    w

 

8/9 for the season sees us probably just miss finals. we probably need to win 2 of the 4 losses to make the 8 

[old55 21,634]

On 8/8/2020 at 2:11 PM, Pollyanna said:

Yes, we'll need to go 6-2 and even then we might not make it.

Now 5-2 minimum required.

Must win: Freo, Sydney

3/5: Collingwood, Dogs, Essendon, GWS, St.Kilda.

[Lucifers Hero 37,323]

1 hour ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

North Melbourne W

Collingwood   L

Western Bulldogs  L

Essendon   W

Fremantle   W

GWS Giants  L 

St Kilda    L

Sydney    w

 

8/9 for the season sees us probably just miss finals. we probably need to win 2 of the 4 losses to make the 8 

Will be really disappointed if we don't beat Pies and Bulldogs.  Pies have about 5-6 key players out with injury, 2 less days rest than us and returning from an intersate game.  Bulldogs are struggling to win away from the closed stadium and the tightening of the HTB rule is not helping their game style.   And their fwd line isn't functioning too well.  Bont is spending a lot of time there so not sure what gives...is he playing injured perhaps...

And if the Richo's appointment is to bear fruit we should beat the Saints!

So the only definite L I have is vs GWS. 

Edited August 10, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

1 hour ago, Patches O’houlihan said:

North Melbourne W

Collingwood   L

Western Bulldogs  L

Essendon   W

Fremantle   W

GWS Giants  L 

St Kilda    L

Sydney    w

 

8/9 for the season sees us probably just miss finals. we probably need to win 2 of the 4 losses to make the 8 

We will beat the pies , Dogs, Bombers and Freo to have a 6 game win streak going into the GWS game.   Im bookmarking this post so i can brag about it later.

[WERRIDEE 5,248]

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Remaining Round 11 Games:

• Tonight:  Cats vs Saints and Dockers vs Hawks
• Tuesday night:  Crows vs Pies
• Wednesday night:  Suns vs Ess

We are 9th on the ladder.  Have bolded the teams I would like to see lose to max our chances of overtaking them or be further ahead of them to make the 8.

The next three weeks are critical as we play Pies, Bulldogs and probably Ess (in Alice, a real Home game).  All are 8 - point games and all immensely winnable.

Dare I dream that after round 14 we are 8/5 ??

With so many 8-point games and lack of consistency among many teams will 9 wins be enough to make finals?

In rounds 15 to 18 we play: Freo, GWS, Saints and Swans.  I reckon we can get 9 or 10 wins.  Finals here we come?

I think we can win them all GWS is the hardest team we play and they are not setting the world on fire.

[Half forward flank 1,022]

I am sticking with the old one week or 5 days at a time. If we can beat the Pies I see us getting on a roll.

[Engorged Onion 9,499]

39 minutes ago, Half forward flank said:

I am sticking with the old one week or 5 days at a time. If we can beat the Pies I see us getting on a roll.

So you're not sticking with the old one week at a time then?

[Half forward flank 1,022]

1 hour ago, Engorged Onion said:

So you're not sticking with the old one week at a time then?

Well, I am when the time between matches is a week. Anything meaningful to add.

[Engorged Onion 9,499]

2 minutes ago, Half forward flank said:

Well, I am when the time between matches is a week. Anything meaningful to add.

Nothing meaningful at all - just being a pedant.

[Half forward flank 1,022]

1 minute ago, Engorged Onion said:

Nothing meaningful at all - just being a pedant.

Cabin fever?

[Engorged Onion 9,499]

5 minutes ago, Half forward flank said:

Cabin fever?

110%

[Meggs 576]

They are all winnable games.  Whether we convert them into four points is a mystery.  Our miserable history weighs against us sure, but Meggs is an optimist and I like the current blend of youth, core stars and welcome recruits.  Car’n a Dees, let’s pick each team off one week at a time and make the finals in 2020.  From there you never know...it should be wonderfully entertaining to watch during this endless dreary quarantine.

[dl4e 5,648]

We should win the next 2. The filth are decimated with injuries. Dogs be more of a challenge.

[titan_uranus 22,753]

5 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Will be really disappointed if we don't beat Pies and Bulldogs.  Pies have about 5-6 key players out with injury, 2 less days rest than us and returning from an intersate game.  Bulldogs are struggling to win away from the closed stadium and the tightening of the HTB rule is not helping their game style.   And their fwd line isn't functioning too well.  Bont is spending a lot of time there so not sure what gives...is he playing injured perhaps...

And if the Richo's appointment is to bear fruit we should beat the Saints!

So the only definite L I have is vs GWS. 

If we're serious about playing finals and taking the next step, we need to win these next two games.

But Collingwood's ceiling is above ours and they've gone deep into finals the last two years despite having long injury lists. The Dogs can play scintillating football, and their recent poor form will at least in part be because their last three matches have been vs Brisbane, Port and Richmond.

Meanwhile we've taken until the fourth quarter to shake off 18th and 17th.

The true test starts on Saturday. Knock of Collingwood and I'll be far more confident about our chances of picking up the 5-6 wins we need from here.

[old55 21,634]

Freo are improving too, they've beaten Collingwood and Hawthorn recently so that's not an easy one.  Hopefully we don't play them in Perth.

[binman 39,083]

Ralph said on fox footy need yesterday that it will be announced today dees to play bombers in alice springs in round 14. 

So pies, bulldogs and bombers.

The oldest team in the league, named after the capital of Victoria, playing three proud Victorian teams in Brisbane, gold coast and the Alice. Surreal times.

[Josh 1,420]

13 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

So you're not sticking with the old one week at a time then?

1 working week?

[titan_uranus 22,753]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Ralph said on fox footy need yesterday that it will be announced today dees to play bombers in alice springs in round 14. 

So pies, bulldogs and bombers.

The oldest team in the league, named after the capital of Victoria, playing three proud Victorian teams in Brisbane, gold coast and the Alice. Surreal times.

I'm not sure 100% sure but I believe that Fremantle will play in Perth in Round 14, before going to Queensland to hub for the rest of the season.

That should mean we don't play them in Perth, which might improve our chances of beating them.

[binman 39,083]

9 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I'm not sure 100% sure but I believe that Fremantle will play in Perth in Round 14, before going to Queensland to hub for the rest of the season.

That should mean we don't play them in Perth, which might improve our chances of beating them.

Which may well mean we are in QLD, with one maybe two games in the NT, for the remainder of the year. Which is close to optimal i would have thought.

[Lucifers Hero 37,323]

2 hours ago, Pollyanna said:

Freo are improving too, they've beaten Collingwood and Hawthorn recently so that's not an easy one.  Hopefully we don't play them in Perth.

Eagles are planning to leave Perth after round 13 and not return for H&A games.  So it won't be long after that Freo leave town.  Its been mooted that we play Ess in Alice in rnd 14 so we could play Freo in Alice in round 15 or back in Qld.

 

I'm also getting nervous about the Freo game.  Only saw half last night's game but that was enough to see they are using the Eagles and Geelong 'possession/control tempo' style.  The style was very visible for Freo vs Pies which they won.  They used it to beat the Saints who have the same play-on, fast game we do.   Each week Freo get better at it.  Oddly enough last night they beat the Hawks at their own possession/control tempo, game, a game style that won them a few premierships.

After the Geelong game Goodwin said 'we couldn't get the ball off them'.  'Controlled/tempo footy' is kryptonite to our fast play.  Hope our opp analysts are putting a lot of time into countering that possession/control that Freo are becoming adept at.   Too many teams beat us that way.

I've now put Freo in with GWS as future losses.  On that basis we need 4 or 5 wins from the other 6 remaining games to make finals.  Not feeling as optimistic as I was yesterday...

Edited August 11, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[Lucifers Hero 37,323]

With last nights results, spots 7 and 8 and finals are up for grabs.  Will be decided between:  Saints, Bulldogs, Ess, Pies, Suns (maybe) and Dees.  We play the first 4 in coming weeks; all 8 point games for us. 

Finals are now in our control. 

This has a 2018 feel about it:  Shaky start.  Smashed then players publicly blow torched by the club.  Started getting some good wins (albeit vs mediocre sides).  Then had 'must win' games vs goodish sides to finish off the season.

Its exciting to see how far we can go.  At least we are still a very good chance and it makes the rest of the season interesting.

Feeling good about where we sit.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Lucifer's Hero

[titan_uranus 22,753]

8 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Eagles are planning to leave Perth after round 13 and not return for H&A games.  So it won't be long after that Freo leave town.  Its been mooted that we play Ess in Alice in rnd 14 so we could play Freo in Alice in round 15 or back in Qld.

 

I'm also getting nervous about the Freo game.  Only saw half last night's game but that was enough to see they are using the Eagles and Geelong 'possession/control tempo' style.  The style was very visible for Freo vs Pies which they won.  They used it to beat the Saints who have the same play-on, fast game we do.   Each week Freo get better at it.  Oddly enough last night they beat the Hawks at their own possession/control tempo, game, a game style that won them a few premierships.

After the Geelong game Goodwin said 'we couldn't get the ball off them'.  'Controlled/tempo footy' is kryptonite to our fast play.  Hope our opp analysts are putting a lot of time into countering that possession/control that Freo are becoming adept at.   Too many teams beat us that way.

I've now put Freo in with GWS as future losses.  On that basis we need 4 or 5 wins from the other 6 remaining games to make finals.  Not feeling as optimistic as I was yesterday...

Don't go too overboard with Fremantle.

They struggled to put Hawthorn away all night.

Hawthorn are a bottom 4 side.

I'm not suggesting we're a lock to beat anyone in our run home, but I'd continue to consider that Fremantle, away from Perth (and the crowd), will be a winnable game.

[whatwhat say what 19,677]

whatever, whenever, whoever, wherever

personally i'd like to think we could go 7-0 on the run home and rocket into the top 4...but i'd settle for 5-2 and the lower reaches of the 8

anything less than 4-3 given who we have left to play would be a disappointment

[DEE fence 4,558]

While sure we could drop any or all of these games, the only real concern I have are the Dogs and Giants, our form is the most diabolic to pick and we will not be a sure thing or no chance for the rest of the year, regardless of what Titus tips.

[Pates 9,537]

In a strange way I almost feel like the finals have started for us, we can’t really afford anymore than two losses. Really needed to get a win from one of the Cats or Lions to give us a little buffer. 

On our day we can beat every one of those teams, but we aren’t consistent or mature enough to go on that big a run (in my opinion at least). We need to get the W against the Pies though, we are in a good position to do so and we have to press the advantages that we have (healthier list, longer break, strong fitness to run games out).