just found this a live virus meter for some facts

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

5 minutes ago, binman said:

A god point Webber. As i have flagged before i am for continuing, but shifting towards holding off.

I wonder if they do decide to play would it be feasible for all involved at a club who have to have direct contact (remmbering pretty much all admin can work from home) essentially self isolate when not playing a game or training. So that would be say 40 players and maybe 20 staff (coaches, ancillary staff, medical teams etc), so 60 people per team isolating themselves for say 6 weeks. For instance in hotel or the like. So say 1200 people essentially isolating themselves for 6 weeks. 

If that occurred the risk of spreading the virus to the broader community would be minimised (noting that it would be impossible to completely stop infections), taking away a key (valid) argument against playing.

A query you might be able to answer. Taking your point about people being asymptomatic and still being infectious i assume if a person hs COvid 19 a test would show that. Is it feasible to test all AFL players? Donovan Mitchel tested positive without symptoms so i assume they tested all NBA players, or at least all of the Utah Jazz players.

Another query. If you think games should not be played then logically - and for the same reason ie containment - training should be called off. As it has been in the NBA

The test has a high false negative rate. No one knows how high just yet because there’s lots of tests and lots of labs scaling up without established standards. But it’s possible a swab of the mouth and nose is poorly conducted and doesn’t get any virus. 

To constantly test and retest all 800 AFL players when those tests are needed for other people would be a waste of resources.

Until we go in to full lockdown I’d be fine with players training in small groups (say 5-10) with non contact and lots of precautions. The NRL bleaching balls because of a crowd was peak stupidity but they were kind of right.

1 hour ago, Webber said:

What’s being missed by some on here is that the virus spreads during the period of asymptomatic but infectious incubation.

https://www.jwatch.org/na51083/2020/03/13/covid-19-incubation-period-update

52 minutes ago, Accepting Mediocrity said:

You're choosing to ignore a few key facts.

Obviously, closing schools would be ideal in one sense,  but closing schools has significant ramifications. Who looks after the kids? Either grandparents, who are likely to be at risk from the virus, or parents, who then need to stay at home from work. There goes a significant number of Australia's medical staff at the time when they are needed most. The Government advice to keep schools open (for now) is not made lightly and takes into account the best available medical advice in terms of risk. 

Usually, when I go shopping or take public transport, I try my best to avoid tackling those around me which lowers the risk somewhat. 

The number of cases in Aus is currently doubling every 4 days or so. You don't need to be Einstein to work out that it's a matter of when, not if a player tests positive (almost certainly within the next couple of weeks). When that happens, the AFL will have no choice but to postpone/ cancel the season.

 

This is the main reason that Governments are reluctant to close Schools. I am a nurse in Aged care, where the nursing workforce tend to be significantly older than other nursing units. I can confidently state that even at my facility, the closing of schools would have a dramatic effect on our available workforce, not just the nurses but also Kitchen staff and cleaners. Cleaners will be particularly busy in this event.

The problem is much worse in general nursing wards, and especially dire in places like Emergency wards when the proportion of medical and Nursing staff with school aged kids is much higher than in Aged care. The staff wont want to leave their little germ factories with Nan and Pop for obvious reasons, so they will just call in sick. You only have to see what happens in our business every time School holidays comes around. "Sick leave" increases substantially.

Children seem to be much less at risk from this virus for unknown reasons, and closing Schools will have huge ramifications for the health profession. I reckon it will have to be a last resort move by Governments.

2 minutes ago, ding said:

This is the main reason that Governments are reluctant to close Schools. I am a nurse in Aged care, where the nursing workforce tend to be significantly older than other nursing units. I can confidently state that even at my facility, the closing of schools would have a dramatic effect on our available workforce, not just the nurses but also Kitchen staff and cleaners. Cleaners will be particularly busy in this event.

The problem is much worse in general nursing wards, and especially dire in places like Emergency wards when the proportion of medical and Nursing staff with school aged kids is much higher than in Aged care. The staff wont want to leave their little germ factories with Nan and Pop for obvious reasons, so they will just call in sick. You only have to see what happens in our business every time School holidays comes around. "Sick leave" increases substantially.

Children seem to be much less at risk from this virus for unknown reasons, and closing Schools will have huge ramifications for the health profession. I reckon it will have to be a last resort move by Governments.

Children with Covid19 have a 4% chance of being asymptomatic 51% mild illness 39% moderate illness 6% severe or critical illness. So the kitchen staff and cleaners and nurses and doctors have kids at school that can carry Covid19 and pass it on to their parents - I think I see a problem here.

Am I the only one here that can see that having children at school is a potential major risk? But no let's cancel the footy. We should get our priorities right and do what is needed not window dressing.

2 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Am I the only one here that can see that having children at school is a potential major risk?

I think any reasonably-minded person accepts that having kids in schools right now is a major risk. But the best medical minds in the country have deemed that currently, it's slightly less of a major risk than the alternative - we don't really have a choice but to trust the experts on this one and hope like hell they get it right. Keep in mind that the situation is changing by the hour - I think there's little doubt that they will close all schools at some point.

Start the season 5 or 6 weeks late, with fans and play the whole season. 22 games + finals. 

 

I just want us to spank a West Coast Eagles team that gets 20 less frees than usual because no home crowd then they can call it off for a few months

I'd like to see them play the first couple of rounds (at least) to empty stadiums, and then take a 7 week break (the 5 dropped rounds and 2 weeks of the "bye" no longer required) and then, if the situation has settled enough, play the remaining rounds.  The AFL has said they could extend the season if necessary, so there might be room to make that break 9 or 10 weeks.

Edited March 17, 20205 yr by hardtack

40 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

The test has a high false negative rate. No one knows how high just yet because there’s lots of tests and lots of labs scaling up without established standards. But it’s possible a swab of the mouth and nose is poorly conducted and doesn’t get any virus. 

To constantly test and retest all 800 AFL players when those tests are needed for other people would be a waste of resources.

Until we go in to full lockdown I’d be fine with players training in small groups (say 5-10) with non contact and lots of precautions. The NRL bleaching balls because of a crowd was peak stupidity but they were kind of right.

Fair points. But even if you only tested all players once and then they self isolate outside of playing and training the risk of of spreading would be below - or at least no higher - than if they stop all together and are just part of the broader community and practicing distancing strategies.

 

The latest I heard is the slow broad spread of COVID in Australia and it will peak around late May. So delaying the season a few weeks won't help.  this must be why they are trying to get a few games in and then then take a break.

it's going to be a weird weird season either way

Start now.

Try to get to R8 or R9 - Halfway mark which would be 10th or 17th May.

Expect a 4-6 week break about that stage.

Resume second half of season.

Play finals.

Dees win flag.

Everyone says it doesn't count cos it was a joke of a season.

26 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

I just want us to spank a West Coast Eagles team that gets 20 less frees than usual because no home crowd then they can call it off for a few months

I feel like they should delay the season start!

However would love to see the above happen - would be happy for up to 8-10 week break if got to see this result!

Virus in China is almost had its run

Looks like 6-7 weeks if appropriate responses are employed. No in country infections  with11 new infections today all returning citizens from over seas

So maybe delaying is a good strategy?

Edited March 17, 20205 yr by Kent

WA is about to shut the borders by the looks of it.. 100-1 for this round to start.

1 hour ago, Kent said:

just found this a live virus meter for some facts

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Yeah been onto that one for a while, its great. Its only the facts not the politics. If you click population tag at the very top, it gives you the current world population live update and the top 20 largest countries, the amount of births and deaths in a single day etc....

13 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

WA is about to shut the borders by the looks of it.. 100-1 for this round to start.

That may cause some constitutional problems. Section 92 

2 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah been onto that one for a while, its great. Its only the facts not the politics. If you click population tag at the very top, it gives you the current world population live update and the top 20 largest countries, the amount of births and deaths in a single day etc....

Yes Wadda saw that.

2 hours ago, Kent said:

just found this a live virus meter for some facts

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Nice touch with the Le Pine Funerals ad at the top...

2 hours ago, Kent said:

Looks like 6-7 weeks if appropriate responses are employed. No in country infections  with11 new infections today all returning citizens from over seas

The Chinese response reportedly involved Government officials welding shut the front doors of people showing symptoms (as shown on 4 Corners). Such extreme measures can't and won't be applied here. 

All the available evidence seems to indicate that things will get exponentially worse before they get better here - most projections I've seen range from 10-50% of the Australian population becoming infected over the coming months, with the most likely scenario being a peak around August. 

I suspect we'll look back and laugh at ourselves for being foolish enough to hold hope for mid-year recommencement of the AFL season. Hopefully I'm wrong. Stay safe out there Demonlander's!

Had another think and don't believe they will even get to play a competition. At the very best it will be punctuated by so many blowouts by the last few rounds by Teams who will justifiably say who cares winning a Flag in a NOT season. Basically it just won't count...

4 hours ago, Kent said:

Virus in China is almost had its run

Looks like 6-7 weeks if appropriate responses are employed. No in country infections  with11 new infections today all returning citizens from over seas

So maybe delaying is a good strategy?

We won’t be smart enough or spend the money on the legal measures that China have implemented.

And we sure won’t start introducing the very questionable methods they use in China.

Plus the issues of what happens when China re opens for business.

The other thing that really concerns me is China is warming up. Northern hemisphere countries have the chance to keep it under control when people are healthier in summer. Vitamin d, vitamin c, less colds and flu etc. Even with a lot less flu this year we will go the other way in May/June 

Fed govt will announce lockdown tomorrow my sauce says, announcement in the afternoon, maybe 6pm.

...not that it would take a rocket scientist to work that out, but thats what i heard.

Edited March 17, 20205 yr by Wadda We Sing

Five conferences. 
 

A: Eagles and Dockers. Play each other every week. 

B: Power and Crows.  Play each other every week. 

C : Lions and Suns. Play each other every week. 
D : Swans and Giants. Play each other every week 

E : Dees, Pies, Hawks, Bombers, Kangas, Saints, Tigers, Cats, Blues, Bulldogs.  Play each other twice. 18 games. 

No travel. Now that’s lateral thinking ? 

(it’s a joke) 

Edited March 18, 20205 yr by spirit of norm smith
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