I would like to think we make the 8 in 2020, but I don't think so.

For me its more about the coach & game plan. We have the talent & we have all seen what we can do when injury free & all on the same page, however, last years horror show doesn't give me a great deal of confidence & lets face it, we all get a little bit over excited this time of year.

We have some amazingly gifted players, but they have to all 'buy in' to the strategy & believe in it. That was clearly missing last year.

Two things that are glaringly obvious for me for what its worth.....

1/ Lack of confidence/knowledge from our coaching staff last year to adjust to 666, injuries & game plan 

2/ Lack of balance within the team. (too many slow, low disposal efficiency players that panic under pressure & not enough pace. (only 2 quick rated players)

I hope I'm wrong & like every Melb supporter I wish nothing for a few early wins, but Goodwin is up against it & the first 11 games before the bye will determine his future.

If a preseason is all about a club instilling some belief and a sense of anticipation into their fan base then ours has done it in spades this time around I think. This is part of the short game that should stem any potential bleeding of members that could threaten our bottom line. The longer game will play out as our new recruits are bedded in to the game plan and draft picks begin to find their way in the AFL system. If I were to try and pick out an area of possible concern this far ahead it might be our two key forwards, one of which hasn't yet returned to full training and the other who appears to lack in self belief. If this proves to be unfounded however then I see no reason why we couldn't rack up enough wins to snatch a double chance. 

Just now, Wrecker45 said:

I never understand this line of thinking, if we win enough games we will make the 8. 

The other 7 teams that win enough games will also make the 8.

Picking which team(s) will drop out of the 8 has no bearing on us making it.

Only that each year 2 to 3 teams do drop out thus at least providing the opportunities for new entrants if they are good enough 

3 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Only that each year 2 to 3 teams do drop out thus at least providing the opportunities for new entrants if they are good enough 

Teams that perform badly don’t provide “opportunities for the new entrants”.

The new entrants just win enough games to make the finals.

It is easier these days for the “new entrants” as well because the draw is designed so no finalists from the previous year play each other more often.

On 12/14/2019 at 8:37 AM, Dingo said:

Another way looking at it-which team(s) would drop out of the bottom half of this year’s 8 for Dees to sneak in?

Geelong and West Coast both aided by massive home ground advantage which always gives them a head start. With their lists they'll still be there you would reckon although a lot of the Eagles' best are ageing. I am hoping, not yet expecting them to drop quickly.

Richmond and Giants both good enough and hungry enough to be right in it.

Lions had an amazing injury-free run but even without that they have built a very good list and I expect them to be back.

That leaves Collingwood, Essendon and the Dogs. Essendon are in strife and are most likely to miss according to notables like K Cornes. As for the other two, I think they are both vulnerable depending on injuries and results in close games, but the Dogs moreso. The Woods consistently over achieve. So two or possibly three places up for grabs tops. It doesn't leave much room for error but anything less than finals would be a big disappointment.

As we made changes to our football department with  a  fitness guru that is an improvement in itself. 

The injuries are not as significant  as in 2018. However we recruited well IMO  from other clubs and drafted positively.

No doubt the guys will  be motivated enough and they have something to prove.

I expect the good vibes and expect  them to be fit as. That to me will equal a top 8 finish.

They are more than good enough IMO.

 

Edited December 14, 20195 yr by nosoupforme

I expect us to finish top 4 in season 2020.

injury being the only caveat...

It will be a wasted season if we don't.

I honestly think it's less about what we do and more about what other teams do. The competition is harder and more even than ever, you basically have 12-14 teams all capable of a top 8 finish and probably 6 teams that can reasonably win the flag. 2018 was probably our only genuine shot at a flag for at least another few years imo. It was to be our Bulldogs 2016 year but it wasn't to be. That was our run. Now we plug the holes in the list, reboot, change the guard (Lewis, Jones etc out) and the new brigade takes over. We may well make finals but we're probably more reasonably in for a firm finals run and challenge in 2021, perhaps 2022. There are just far too many teams thereabouts with us for us to be a lock for finals. And we *still* lack experience and that winning mongrel that took Richmond almost 8 years to build under Hardwick.

End of the day no one beats a modestly healthy Richmond, which is imo on par with Hawthorn as the best "team" of the decade (in that, the way they play at their best).

12 hours ago, Rab D Nesbitt said:

If a preseason is all about a club instilling some belief and a sense of anticipation into their fan base then ours has done it in spades this time around I think. This is part of the short game that should stem any potential bleeding of members that could threaten our bottom line. The longer game will play out as our new recruits are bedded in to the game plan and draft picks begin to find their way in the AFL system. If I were to try and pick out an area of possible concern this far ahead it might be our two key forwards, one of which hasn't yet returned to full training and the other who appears to lack in self belief. If this proves to be unfounded however then I see no reason why we couldn't rack up enough wins to snatch a double chance. 

Probably the most significant unrecognised factor RDB but confidence of playing squad which enhances belief and justifies anticipation of fan base.

When confidence is there the snap goes through , the set shots become easy, the fumble becomes a clean possession , the handpass reaches its target, etc.

The squad does seem to have a few options for every position and a variety of tactics and strategies. With confidence in those and their abilities the players can overcome set backs in the short term and the longer term will evolve with success.

I have not seen a squad with such high depth of skills, abilities and characteristics. We need our coaches to develop and use those features to give us long suffering supporters some return for our investments.

22 minutes ago, dpositive said:

Probably the most significant unrecognised factor RDB but confidence of playing squad which enhances belief and justifies anticipation of fan base.

When confidence is there the snap goes through , the set shots become easy, the fumble becomes a clean possession , the handpass reaches its target, etc.

The squad does seem to have a few options for every position and a variety of tactics and strategies. With confidence in those and their abilities the players can overcome set backs in the short term and the longer term will evolve with success.

I have not seen a squad with such high depth of skills, abilities and characteristics. We need our coaches to develop and use those features to give us long suffering supporters some return for our investments.

Big error there dpositive, you should never think of supporting the MFC as an investment. That is the road to insanity. Think of it as a charitable donation.

41 minutes ago, rjay said:

I expect us to finish top 4 in season 2020.

injury being the only caveat...

It will be a wasted season if we don't.

We finished second last this year. Top four is a long way back, 13 places is a huge jump. If we don't play a final I would agree with you but with the  holes we still have making finals will be a good result after 2019.

10 minutes ago, old dee said:

Big error there dpositive, you should never think of supporting the MFC as an investment. That is the road to insanity. Think of it as a charitable donation.

Yes can't help but agree but was also including  investment of hope and non monetary factors as well. It does mean hat the return I have had on disappointment and frustration have me well down the insanity road.

16 minutes ago, old dee said:

We finished second last this year. Top four is a long way back, 13 places is a huge jump. If we don't play a final I would agree with you but with the  holes we still have making finals will be a good result after 2019.

This year was a huge drop off.

With a better list it's not unreasonable to think we should be able to jump back.

I've been one of the biggest critics of our list but think it is now much better balanced.

Not perfect but no list is.

We'll finish the home and away in fourth spot, win two finals and then I'm not sure what happens!

Soothsayers and Cassandras galore on this site. Who the F knows how we'll go this year. There are too many unknown variables. All we know for sure is that Geelong and West Coast and the E Coli Wobblers get an armchair ride via the Draw, the rest is in the lap of Scomo's gods. I'm happy to wait and see. We shall see what we shall see...Maybe we should get Scomo to include the Demons in his prayers?????

Top 4

I'm not expecting much from our draftees and anything we get from Bennell, VDB, J Smith would be a bonus.

12 minutes ago, dieter said:

Soothsayers and Cassandras galore on this site. Who the F knows how we'll go this year. There are too many unknown variables. All we know for sure is that Geelong and West Coast and the E Coli Wobblers get an armchair ride via the Draw, the rest is in the lap of Scomo's gods. I'm happy to wait and see. We shall see what we shall see...Maybe we should get Scomo to include the Demons in his prayers?????

He did no good for the Sharks so I vote we keep well away.

Anything other than finals is a a failed year. We should always think that way. 
For too long we have made up the numbers within the AFL and been content enough with that. 
if Bartlett and Goodwin want to leave their mark on the Club long term, then they and their support staff must demand that result. 
When we do not make finals, we identify what went wrong and fight tooth and nail to rectify it. I am hoping this is what is happening right now. 
The good clubs make September, we as Supporters and Members should expect to be there. 

4 hours ago, dpositive said:

Probably the most significant unrecognised factor RDB but confidence of playing squad which enhances belief and justifies anticipation of fan base.

When confidence is there the snap goes through , the set shots become easy, the fumble becomes a clean possession , the handpass reaches its target, etc.

The squad does seem to have a few options for every position and a variety of tactics and strategies. With confidence in those and their abilities the players can overcome set backs in the short term and the longer term will evolve with success.

I have not seen a squad with such high depth of skills, abilities and characteristics. We need our coaches to develop and use those features to give us long suffering supporters some return for our investments.

Yup, they're good points DP. Key injuries aside our biggest hurdles lie between the ears as the talent is there. 

I’m bullish to be honest, here’s why...

Players who had down years (mostly due to playing through injury): Brayshaw, Viney, Hibberd, Jetta and TMac

Players who missed most of the year: May, Lever, Melksham, VDB

Players added: Langdon, Tomlinson (not expecting much, especially with his preseason)

Most of those guys get back to their best and we are an infinitely better team.

Add to that 2 crucial positional changes: Fritsch permanent forward (don’t get me started) and Petracca to the midfield (always thought he was better contested/in close player than he gets credit for)

I'm confident that we will rebound at least well enough to have the horrors of 2019 become just a foul memory (learning experience etc).

I actually really think our 2020 team has much better prospects than, ah, well, I guess I'd have to say any team of ours since 2000, really.

If 2000's fourteen wins with good percentage is the benchmark, I think we'll get there.

My 'reasons for optimism' list goes something like;

- our entire backline leadership and brains group was chronically injured in 2019 and is looking available for 2020

- we have hugely increased the diversity of our midfield group thanks to Langdon & Tomlinson coming in

- I personally (and I'm not alone) rate both Vandenberg and Smith as valuable inclusions who make things go a little better.

- The knock-on effect of having many more senior bodies available is that it will allow our layer of players who aren't 'guns' to be used in roles best suited to their attributes and confidence.  Hanna, Hunt, Nibbler, Hore and many of our younger guys will both benefit personally and be able to be more effective role-players than they could be under the depleted-team pressures of 2019.

- Bayley Fritsch will consolidate as a top-3 player from his draft and with the returning Melksham (AFL King of Goal Assists) provide a smart and capable half-forward line that we crave.

- I believe in the return of Tom McDonald to full prowess and workrate.  That in my mind is worth a couple of wins a season even if nothing else changes.  Hell, he had a rubbish year all up but when he found his rhythm he still managed to be absolutely crucial in three of our five wins.

We'll be lucky to play finals ... the list looks good on paper only.  And even then that's with many on the list being over-valued anyway. 

12 wins is a possibility though but that number doesn't guarantee finals.  But I'm not one to get all buoyant in the off-season (in a general sense)  Building up false hopes often leads to anger & disappointment.  

The issues we need to address ...

• A dysfunctional forward line without any real marking power
• A lack of genuine leg speed (especially from the stoppages)
• Dash out of defence as well as the ability to set up goals out of defence
• Disposal issues with regards to kicking to position
• Kicking for goal (yips)
• Clearance work that leaves a lot to be desired
• A/B+ talent depth at the top end and a lack of talent with regards to the last 6 or 8 picked in the 22
• The ability to play as a unit (team football)
• 2nd & 3rd efforts aren't up to par
• Overall coaching that may or may not be up to scratch

That's a lot of boxes to tick in one off-season.

Again,  despite all of the above we've still got the ability to win 10-12 games as there are any number of teams who are in a similar position to us.  But it's a rarity to see a team beat all the teams they should beat unless that team is a genuine top 4 team.  And we are not that team.  Not yet anyway. 

2020 is about gaining respectability and setting the team up for a genuine shot beyond next season.  If we get a dream run with injuries we might end up playing a final or 2.  But that's an optimistic call.  I just can't see the team winning 14 games (which would virtually guarantee a finals berth)

 

Edited December 15, 20195 yr by Macca

22 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

- Bayley Fritsch will consolidate as a top-3 player from his draft

Seems to be a lot of eggnog being consumed along with the 'optimism' on Demonland currently.

So, you're saying Fritsch (who I'm a fan of btw) is better than at least six of Kelly, Rayner, Dow, Stephenson, Cerra, Higgins, Ryan and Naughton? Wouldn't think he's anywhere near 'consolidating' a spot among the top 3 there if we're using evidenced based metrics.

 

18 minutes ago, Macca said:

We'll be lucky to play finals ... the list looks good on paper only.  And even then that's with many on the list being over-valued anyway. 

12 wins is a possibility though but that number doesn't guarantee finals.  But I'm not one to get all buoyant in the off-season (in a general sense)  Building up false hopes often leads to anger & disappointment.  

The issues we need to address ...

• A dysfunctional forward line without any real marking power
• A lack of genuine leg speed (especially from the stoppages)
• Dash out of defence as well as the ability to set up goals out of defence
• Clearance work that leaves a lot to be desired
• A/B+ talent depth at the top end and a lack of talent with regards to the last 6 or 8 picked in the 22
• The ability to play as a unit (team football)
• 2nd & 3rd efforts aren't up to par
• Overall coaching that may or may not be up to scratch

That's a lot of boxes to tick in one off-season.

Again,  despite all of the above we've still got the ability to win 10-12 games as there are any number of teams who are in a similar position to us.  But it's a rarity to see a team beat all the teams they should beat unless that team is a genuine top 4 team.  And we are not that team.  Not yet anyway. 

2020 is about gaining respectability and setting the team up for a genuine shot beyond next season.  If we get a dream run with injuries we might end up playing a final or 2.  But that's an optimistic call.  I just can't see the team winning 14 games (which would virtually guarantee a finals berth)

 

Well Macca I agree with a couple of items on your list, not sure our whole forward line is dysfunctional but we definitely only have one key forward and he needs to turn around a very ordinary 2019. I find it difficult to see us kicking a winning score against the top sides. 

And sadly I share your lack of enthusiasm for our coaching department.

our season will IMO turn on how many injuries we get to our better players, I am assuming a better run than this year AVB is vital to our chances.

Having said that I still think we can win 13- 14 games and make eighth place. 

11 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Seems to be a lot of eggnog being consumed along with the 'optimism' on Demonland currently.

So, you're saying Fritsch (who I'm a fan of btw) is better than at least six of Kelly, Rayner, Dow, Stephenson, Cerra, Higgins, Ryan and Naughton? Wouldn't think he's anywhere near 'consolidating' a spot among the top 3 there if we're using evidenced based metrics.

 

Tbf, one poster made that claim, most likely without looking at the above list. But regardless, Fritsch as a full time forward is a real weapon.