Reality check

[buck_nekkid 5,847]

@Lucifer's Hero posted this at the start of the year, somehow it tells the tale of the tape before you add in injuries:

The Roar has produced player list analysis:  Team Profiles

The Average isn't the best measure;  I prefer The Mean Median.  Nonetheless, the Roar tables are a good indicator of each team. 

I was a bit surprised to see Collingwood so high in the age profiles. 

The likes of Lewis and Jones are raising our age profile somewhat.

For us to finish 4th in 2018 when on average age we were 9th and average experience we were 12th shows what a mighty effort it was by the club. 

An interesting comment from the article:  "Overall the numbers hint at a few possible conclusions, one being that putting heavy 2019 expectations on the likes of Melbourne, Fremantle and Essendon because of their notable trade period recruits might be a little premature.

Of these three sides, only one – Essendon – is in the top eight for age, and they are eighth. None is in the top eight for experience.

That’s not to say that these lists aren’t capable of achieving great things in 2019, but instead that they are still some distance from hitting their high-water mark in terms of talent maturity".

Nonetheless, the expectations on us will indeed be 'heavy' and we will rise to the occasion!

Edit:  change 'Mean' to 'Median'

—-

i find the line about expectations quite prescient in the article quoted. In 2020 we will lose Lewis, but have gotten games into lots of players.  Hopefully this sets us up to be more competitive for longer.

Edited August 17, 2019 by buck_nekkid
Spellink

[Lord Travis 10,697]

And yet Brisbane are sitting on top of the ladder with the second youngest list.

I agree age and experience is obviously a factor, but it’s not an excuse.

[John Crow Batty 8,861]

1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

And yet Brisbane are sitting on top of the ladder with the second youngest list.

I agree age and experience is obviously a factor, but it’s not an excuse.

That’s the wall paper excuse we have had to put with for a decade now.  When things started getting really bad mid season the usual apologists revived it.

Edited August 18, 2019 by america de cali

[Clintosaurus 7,838]

Brisbane have barely had an injury to their best 25.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

Reality check, next year some of our best players will start to hit an 'age point' where it's more likely they start to go down hill rather than up. Next season:

Gawn will be 28.

Jetta will be 30.

Hibberd will be 30.

May will be 28.

Melksham will turn 29.

TMac will turn 28.

That's a huge part of our spine, and very much a core group of our best players. Thinking we're going to get better as we get 'older and more experienced' is a bit of a shallow analysis when you look at the actual players.

This list doesn't include the likes of Lewis & Garlett who will both likely retire, Jones (won't be one of our most important next year), T.Smith (will be 29) and vandenBerg (28).

Edited August 18, 2019 by Lord Nev

[Demon Disciple 12,068]

2 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

Brisbane have barely had an injury to their best 25.

That and they are riding a huge wave of momentum and emotion. We had it late last year, but when the whips are cracking, i'd be interested to see how they go come September.

They are very young (not a bad thing), and i feel that given their immaturity, many will be mentally exhausted prior to the big stuff as a result of overthinking it before it actually happens.

[buck_nekkid 5,847]

3 minutes ago, Demon Disciple said:

That and they are riding a huge wave of momentum and emotion. We had it late last year, but when the whips are cracking, i'd be interested to see how they go come September.

They are very young (not a bad thing), and i feel that given their immaturity, many will be mentally exhausted prior to the big stuff as a result of overthinking it before it actually happens.

This.  Lets see how deep they go - we made it to the Prelim and hit our wall,  The doggies went 2 better and got the chocolates.  Playing on emotion is a wonderful thing, but running out of puff is a real risk - as is dropping like a stone next year as often happens to rapidly rising teams (tiggers, doggies, dees, etc have all done it).  However, they look good, and I like the way they are playing.

[Lord Travis 10,697]

I don’t think Brisbane will go all the way, but they have the second youngest list and are top of the ladder. We were similar last year, though not as good as them. Their list is more balanced than ours and they play a better and more modern game style than us. Fagan has done a great job building belief and synergy with that young group.

Age is not an excuse and we need to stop accepting it as an excuse.

We’ve been hearing it for over a decade now from us and other poor clubs. Clubs need to cut the crap, man up and admit they’re not good enough. You can’t fix something you don’t acknowledge as a problem. So acknowledge it and then make some proper changes to improve. Goodwin saying no wholesale changes needed, just work hard, is a pathetic message to the players and supporters and shows a lack of understanding and ownership. 

Edited August 18, 2019 by Lord Travis

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

17 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

I don’t think Brisbane will go all the way, but they have the second youngest list and are top of the ladder. We were similar last year, though not as good as them. Their list is more balanced than ours and they play a better and more modern game style than us. Fagan has done a great job building belief and synergy with that young group.

Age is not an excuse and we need to stop accepting it as an excuse.

We’ve been hearing it for over a decade now from us and other poor clubs. Clubs need to cut the crap, man up and admit they’re not good enough. You can’t fix something you don’t acknowledge as a problem. So acknowledge it and then make some proper changes to improve. Goodwin saying no wholesale changes needed, just work hard, is a pathetic message to the players and supporters and shows a lack of understanding and ownership. 

There is a lot of elements of truth to that but you can't just ignore that the more experience you have (in anything) the more consistent and better execution you'll have overall..

Getting that balance right is huge.

 

[praha 11,236]

Coaching, leadership, development. 

Age and experience have an impact.

But time and time again the same issues present.

Culture. Support. The Melbourne Football Club is a losers club. Brisbane at least can refer modern players to a flag from last decade. 

There is always something with us. The same apologists. The same [censored]. It's always something.

Own up to it. You [censored] up and mismanaged players. Own it and rectify it you losers.

[beelzebub 23,313]

6 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

And yet Brisbane are sitting on top of the ladder with the second youngest list.

I agree age and experience is obviously a factor, but it’s not an excuse.

Thanks. .

Those stats AREN'T  telling OUR story !

Ours is quite different  !!

[Sorry kids 635]

My concern with the review is if it focuses too much on what went wrong this year there could be an assumption that we are better than our 17th place. We must face that fact, all the players, coaches and supporters. Then it is over to the players to prove the current realty wrong.

[chookrat 4,247]

8 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

@Lucifer's Hero posted this at the start of the year, somehow it tells the tale of the tape before you add in injuries:

The Roar has produced player list analysis:  Team Profiles

The Average isn't the best measure;  I prefer The Mean Median.  Nonetheless, the Roar tables are a good indicator of each team. 

I was a bit surprised to see Collingwood so high in the age profiles. 

The likes of Lewis and Jones are raising our age profile somewhat.

For us to finish 4th in 2018 when on average age we were 9th and average experience we were 12th shows what a mighty effort it was by the club. 

An interesting comment from the article:  "Overall the numbers hint at a few possible conclusions, one being that putting heavy 2019 expectations on the likes of Melbourne, Fremantle and Essendon because of their notable trade period recruits might be a little premature.

Of these three sides, only one – Essendon – is in the top eight for age, and they are eighth. None is in the top eight for experience.

That’s not to say that these lists aren’t capable of achieving great things in 2019, but instead that they are still some distance from hitting their high-water mark in terms of talent maturity".

Nonetheless, the expectations on us will indeed be 'heavy' and we will rise to the occasion!

Edit:  change 'Mean' to 'Median'

—-

i find the line about expectations quite prescient in the article quoted. In 2020 we will lose Lewis, but have gotten games into lots of players.  Hopefully this sets us up to be more competitive for longer.

This is a good analysis and I think also draws discussion that older, more experienced lists should by virtue of age and experience have more depth to cover for injuries and players returning from injury.

[DubDee 25,671]

6 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Reality check, next year some of our best players will start to hit an 'age point' where it's more likely they start to go down hill rather than up. Next season:

Gawn will be 28.

Jetta will be 30.

Hibberd will be 30.

May will be 28.

Melksham will turn 29.

TMac will turn 28.

That's a huge part of our spine, and very much a core group of our best players. Thinking we're going to get better as we get 'older and more experienced' is a bit of a shallow analysis when you look at the actual players.

This list doesn't include the likes of Lewis & Garlett who will both likely retire, Jones (won't be one of our most important next year), T.Smith (will be 29) and vandenBerg (28).

I hear you Nev from a long term perspective but 28, 29 are peak years for most players so I have high hopes for the next two years if the above get on the park that is. 

If our younger group can mature and the older group stay fit it could come together

[bing181 9,194]

3 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

Age is not an excuse and we need to stop accepting it as an excuse.

Age and experience play a bigger role than almost anything else. There will always be outliers (bell curve), but it's no accident that premiership clubs are generally not just more experienced, but have experience where it counts (key players, key positions).

This also effectively lifts the level in younger players. Regardless of raw ability or even coaching, a 50-gamer in a forward line made up largely of other 50 gamers will not perform to the same level as a 50-gamer playing alongside a couple of 200-game AA'ers.

[rufus 1,162]

3 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I hear you Nev from a long term perspective but 28, 29 are peak years for most players so I have high hopes for the next two years if the above get on the park that is. 

If our younger group can mature and the older group stay fit it could come together

We have a history of seeing our players approaching their assumed peak years and either plateauing or declining. Nathan Jones is one of the few exceptions.

This doesn't appear to have changed given that, despite injuries, it certainly looked like we were served up sub standard stuff from Tom Mc, Jetta and Hibberd.

Wonder what it is about the culture of our club that sees this trend.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

22 minutes ago, DubDee said:

I hear you Nev from a long term perspective but 28, 29 are peak years for most players so I have high hopes for the next two years if the above get on the park that is. 

If our younger group can mature and the older group stay fit it could come together

Yeah, not saying those players are cooked of course, just saying it's likely they won't improve from here and some may start to go downhill gradually (you could argue Jetta and Hibberd are already) so our 'window' is now from a core group perspective IMO.

[Mach5 4,767]

7 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

And yet Brisbane are sitting on top of the ladder with the second youngest list.

I agree age and experience is obviously a factor, but it’s not an excuse.

 

Kind of similarly placed to where we were last year, but unsurprisingly for a team that young/inexperienced, it’s simply not sustainable.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,805]

7 hours ago, Lord Nev said:

Reality check, next year some of our best players will start to hit an 'age point' where it's more likely they start to go down hill rather than up. Next season:

Gawn will be 28.

Jetta will be 30.

Hibberd will be 30.

May will be 28.

Melksham will turn 29.

TMac will turn 28.

That's a huge part of our spine, and very much a core group of our best players. Thinking we're going to get better as we get 'older and more experienced' is a bit of a shallow analysis when you look at the actual players.

This list doesn't include the likes of Lewis & Garlett who will both likely retire, Jones (won't be one of our most important next year), T.Smith (will be 29) and vandenBerg (28).

Joel Selwood 31
Patrick Dangerfield 29
Tom Hawkins 31
Zach Tuohy 29
Harry Taylor 30+
Garry Abblett 30++
Lachie Henderson 29
Mitch Duncan 28

Steele Sidebottom 28
Scott Pendlebury 31
Travis Varcoe 31
Jeremy Howe 29
Levi Greenwood 30
Chris Mayne 30
Ben Reid 30
Jordan Roughead 28
+ Wells, Dunn and Goldsack

Shannon Hurn 31
Luke Shuey 29
Nic Naitanui 29
Lewis Jetta 30
Josh Kennedy 30
Will Schofield 30
Chris Masten 30
 

Nev, I take your points, but I think some of the other top teams currently up the top have both more of their lists stacked with veterans and some of their most significant players structurally that will likely retire or become less effective a few years ahead of when our veterans will.  Not all the players listed above are currently stars, but they have a level of maturity and know how to get the job done that will be a challenge for those teams to replace overnight. I think Hawthorn and the Swans are the key case in point of the future that awaits what I hope will happen to some of our rivals over the coming years.

I'm really hoping that the young core of Clarry, Brayshaw, Harmes and Co will start to power up unto their prime as the likes of Pendlebury and Dangerfield start fade out for their respective clubs.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

9 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

 

Great post mate, I love a bit of research!

I'm not trying to downplay maturity and experience, I'm more just worried somewhat about our depth going forward. All the teams you mention would have a greater spread of quality to support those veterans IMO. I'm really excited about some of our young players, but right now I don't think we have enough of them to cover the mature players we will lose in the next 3-4 years. That's what makes me panic a little more in a way, because I'm thinking our window should be now and if we don't make the most of it we could be in trouble.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,805]

51 minutes ago, Lord Nev said:

Great post mate, I love a bit of research!

I'm not trying to downplay maturity and experience, I'm more just worried somewhat about our depth going forward. All the teams you mention would have a greater spread of quality to support those veterans IMO. I'm really excited about some of our young players, but right now I don't think we have enough of them to cover the mature players we will lose in the next 3-4 years. That's what makes me panic a little more in a way, because I'm thinking our window should be now and if we don't make the most of it we could be in trouble.

Thanks Nev.  I actually think that we are on the same page with regards to the concern for some of our key players that are getting on in years.  Of those you list, the only one I see that we have close to an equivalent replacement ready to step up is Hore for Hibbard.  Really does show how much we need players like Weid, Petty(/Oscar?), Preuss(/Bradke?) to stand up over the next few years.  Don't know we have anyone who could step up and play the role that Melksham does (perhaps Trac? or possibly Langdon), but probably some of the answer there is that we need multiple players who can deliver well into the forward line and not just one. 

Would be nice if we could land a few free agents to top up with some mature top end talent in their prime without costing us wanted players or draft picks the way some of these scabby clubs like Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond have in recent years.

The only other subtle point I'd make is that you quoted ages next season, where as the list I put together is current age, so the aging lists of some of our opposition is slightly greater than at first glance.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

22 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Would be nice if we could land a few free agents to top up with some mature top end talent in their prime without costing us wanted players or draft picks the way some of these scabby clubs like Hawthorn, Collingwood and Richmond have in recent years.

That definitely feels like they key, but with an extremely poor season on field and not a huge amount of salary cap room (there's varying opinions on that though) it could be tricky. Even trickier with Mahoney undertaking a club review at a time where he'd usually be the busiest for the year chasing up trades and free agents.