Phantom Drafts - 2018

[Deemania since 56 6,717]

5 hours ago, Mach5 said:

My semi-realistic preference for pick 23 would be O’Halloran, Butters, Duursma or Luke Foley, whoever slips through. Fraser Turner would be a decent result if the others are gone, as generally predicted.

Bailey Williams at pick 28 would be good, but I’d prefer to chase a small with 23.

I get the feeling Bedford will be picked up around 35-40. 

With what we have returning from injury and what we know to be short-term form lapses, we do not need another small as urgently as people may suspect. We need a bloody tough pre-season to develop attitudinal mercenaries with mongrel intent.

[rjay 25,088]

2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I think at junior level, unless you’re really new to the game, a player really has to have shown an ability to win his own footy & cant purely be an outside accumulator. If you can’t win contested footy as a junior, how will you manage to do it at AFL level? Every player on the list needs to be able to win the footy when it’s their turn, no exceptions.

Spot on 'Mach'...

[Lord Travis 10,763]

6 hours ago, Mach5 said:

My semi-realistic preference for pick 23 would be O’Halloran, Butters, Duursma or Luke Foley, whoever slips through. Fraser Turner would be a decent result if the others are gone, as generally predicted.

Bailey Williams at pick 28 would be good, but I’d prefer to chase a small with 23.

I get the feeling Bedford will be picked up around 35-40. 

O'Halloran and Duursma would be good options. Haven't seen enough of Foley or Butters to make judgement, but from what I've read Butters will likely go in the teens before our pick. Turner looks average. There's a number of quality quick aggressive midfielders who are likely to be available at our picks, but they're all very short at 177cms or less. While I don't mind a short player if they can play (such as Viney or Spargo), we can't have too many of them in the team at once, so I hope we don't pick multiple short players. 

Williams should be taken at 23 if he's there. Fils our greatest need and has serious potential.

25 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Williams is No. 1 for me. He can play tall and master rucking or develop into a KPF/D; outside with pace, movement and poise; and in the crush as a key navigator; and, is the owner of two very good hands somewhere up there in the stratosphere with a leap that would make a bullfrog proud. 

Bedford would be my No.2 who impresses me more than Rankine upon whom the eyes of the hopeful are transfixed. 

Just my opinions, nothing more. 

Agreed on Williams. He fills our greatest need and has very unique and exciting attributes for a tall. With the quality and competitiveness of our list now, we can afford to risk drafting these types instead of going for more 'competitive' ball winning mids. Williams could develop into a very hard tall to match up on. Think Ben Brown with the leap of Joe Daniher. Whether he can reach the potential is the issue, as he hasn't been consistent and would be taken at the top end of the draft if he had.

Bedford will come to us at a later pick, and looks a great option. He's quick, agile, hard working, does the team things with blocking and releasing teammates by hand etc. Could be a good small forward capable of pushing up the ground for patches. Reminds me a bit of Daniel Rioli, but slightly more mongrel and less magic. To say he's more impressive than Rankine though is a stretch. Rankine is a ridiculous talent who kicks bags of goals or sets them up. He's got elite pace, elite agility, elite skills, elite decision making, x-factor, you name it. Going by statistics, he should be the number 1 pick this year AND would've been number 1 pick last year as a 17 year old in that draft if eligible. He's the total package.

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

4 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Happy to stick my neck out with a few bold opinions, but I don’t think I’d touch Curtis Taylor or Valente. Not blown away by Jackson Hately, Ely Smith or McHenry either.

Collier-Dawkins & Bailey Williams could be anything, but are high risk prospects. Butters could also be one of those if-only-it-clicked types, but I’d roll the dice.

Rate Stocker & O’Halloran, I think they’ll be locks for 150+ games.

I really like the look of McKenzie if we can get him a bit later.

I think at junior level, unless you’re really new to the game, a player really has to have shown an ability to win his own footy & cant purely be an outside accumulator. If you can’t win contested footy as a junior, how will you manage to do it at AFL level? Every player on the list needs to be able to win the footy when it’s their turn, no exceptions.

Agree with most of that. Ely Smith seems a man amongst boys, has he played against men like Clarry did? McHenry looks like a scrappy school kid, hard to bring that to AFL level unless you're Toby Greene.

Worse case scenario for Riley CD is he plays 100 games on a back flank but whether he's a gun midfielder is up for debate. Williams is risky as all talls are, agree I'd rather get a running player first unless there's belief he'd make a standout ruck down the track.

McKenzie looks a solid no fuss wing/half back, ideally another for the 2nd pick or later. Butters is smooth as butter, he'll be gone.

Zac Foot is one I'd really like. Reminds me of Rory Atkins who is one of my favourite players to watch when he's on. I think he's a later round prospect with class and footy smarts. Good endurance. I wouldn't be upset if we got him in the 2nd round.

[Demon Disciple 12,274]

I'm starting to really warm to the idea of drafting Bailey Williams with one of our first picks.

With his athleticism and mobility, he could play as a tall forward who can more than adequately relief ruck and wouldn't be a liability when the ball hits the deck.

[djr 1,597]

22 hours ago, Mach5 said:

Happy to stick my neck out with a few bold opinions, but I don’t think I’d touch Curtis Taylor or Valente. Not blown away by Jackson Hately, Ely Smith or McHenry either.

Collier-Dawkins & Bailey Williams could be anything, but are high risk prospects. Butters could also be one of those if-only-it-clicked types, but I’d roll the dice.

Rate Stocker & O’Halloran, I think they’ll be locks for 150+ games.

I really like the look of McKenzie if we can get him a bit later.

I think at junior level, unless you’re really new to the game, a player really has to have shown an ability to win his own footy & cant purely be an outside accumulator. If you can’t win contested footy as a junior, how will you manage to do it at AFL level? Every player on the list needs to be able to win the footy when it’s their turn, no exceptions.

Agree. Think Jimmy Toumpas. He was a very good outside mid at junior footy but couldn't get his own ball.

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

39 minutes ago, djr said:

Agree. Think Jimmy Toumpas. He was a very good outside mid at junior footy but couldn't get his own ball.

Agree.  That’s why I rate Xavier O’halloran so highly.  

[Demonland 73,140]

 

[ben russell 764]

36 minutes ago, Demonland said:

 

In summary, of the top 30 rated draftees according to Twomey, he believes Melbourne would be most likely to land one of Stocker, Sturt or McHenry with our pick 23. Of course we may end up taking somebody who Twomey doesn't have in his top 30.

He ranks Stocker at 19, Sturt at 21 and McHenry at 23.

[old55 23,687]

Fan favourite here - Bailey Williams - not in Twomey's list - will be interesting to see where he goes.

[DeeSpencer 26,081]

3 hours ago, ben russell said:

In summary, of the top 30 rated draftees according to Twomey, he believes Melbourne would be most likely to land one of Stocker, Sturt or McHenry with our pick 23. Of course we may end up taking somebody who Twomey doesn't have in his top 30.

He ranks Stocker at 19, Sturt at 21 and McHenry at 23.

Blakey (8), Thomas (13), Quaynor (14) and West (20) means those guys are 3 or 4 spots away in draft order from our pick 23.

Stocker is interesting. Lack of break away speed and average endurance isn't an ideal list fit but he looks a lovely kick on both sides. He reminds me a bit of Angus Brayshaw with the way he moves in traffic and uses both sides, seems to hit his targets more than Gussy. Won the Morrish Medal in a similar run of votes to Gus placing in the Brownlow. If he becomes a lovely kick on both sides at AFL level then he'd be able to play half forward or half back as well as the midfield.

[MurDoc516 1,529]

Gold Coast are linked with everyone. I'd be dissapointed if we didn't get someone with speed or a half forward/full forward player from the draft.

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

Still think #23 is between O’Halloran, Williams, McHenry, Ely Smith and maybe a rising Luke Foley. 

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

I’ve always found the phantom drafts of bigfooty’s Snoop Dog to be interesting, entertaining and informative.

As far as this draft is concerned, my feeling is in line with what most of the experts have been saying for a couple of years - this one is strong at the top and goes reasonably deep. 

With regard to SD’s assessment, he has noted, among other things -

* “if a player is an NGA player and played at Champs they can automatically be listed as Cat B players if they miss out in National Draft”

* “key themes for me this year are speed, running power, contested ball winning, clean hands and skill”.

Some of his key take outs are;

* “there is a real shortage of rucks and given only 2 genuine rucks were invited to combine I think some clubs will miss out and you might find them”

* “same goes for key forwards. There are very few of real quality and again I think clubs are going to need to do some thinking around how they solve for that”,

* “mature age players are in vogue for me. There are a number of high quality ones this year and I expect quite a few to be taken.”

SD has even done a mock rookie draft which is a bit much for me.

I’m concentrating here on the first two rounds. He has us taking Jez McLennan and Sydney Stack and then matching a bid on Toby Bedford. I don’t think we will be taking Stack - I would prefer Williams who gets taken a few picks later but then I have no idea what our recruiters’ mindsets are.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/snoop-dog-2018-mock-draft.1208884/  

His selections -

DAY ONE - ROUND ONE

1 Carlton Sam Walsh / Geelong Falcons / 183cm

2 Gold Coast Suns Jack Lukosius / WWT / 194cm

3 Gold Coast Suns Izak Rankine / West Adelaide / 180cm

4 St Kilda Max King / Sandringham Dragons / 204cm

5 Port Adelaide Ben King / Sandringham Dragons / 202cm

6 Sydney Swans (Matching Bid) Nick Blakey / NSW / 195cm

7 Gold Coast Suns Connor Rozee / North Adelaide / 185cm

8 Western Bulldogs Bailey Smith / Sandringham Dragons / 185cm

9 Adelaide Jackson Hately / Central Districts / 190cm

10 GIANTS Jye Caldwell / Bendigo Pioneers / 184cm

11 Port Adelaide Jordan Clark / Claremont / 182cm

12 GIANTS Chayce Jones / Tasmania / 180cm

13 Geelong Liam Stocker / Sandringham Dragons / 184cm

14 Adelaide Sam Sturt / Dandenong Stingrays / 188cm

15 Fremantle Ian Hill / Perth / 175cm

16 Port Adelaide Riley Collier-Dawkins / Oakleigh Chargers / 191cm

17 Adelaide Zak Butters / Western Jets / 181cm

18 North Melbourne Matching Bid Tarryn Thomas / Tasmania / 189cm

19 Richmond Ely Smith / Murray Bushrangers / 188cm

20 Brisbane Curtis Taylor / Calder Cannons / 186cm

21 Collingwood Matching Bid Isaac Quaynor / Oakleigh Chargers / 178cm

22 GIANTS Xavier Duursma / Gippsland Power / 185cm

23 Western Bulldogs Matching Bid Rhylee West / Calder Cannons / 180cm

24 West Coast Luke Valente / Norwood / 186cm

DAY TWO ROUND TWO

# 25 GIANTS Matching Bid Kieran Briggs / NSW / 199cm

26 Adelaide Xavier O’Halloran / Western Jets / 187cm

27 West Coast Ned McHendry / Geelong Falcons / 178cm to be named the Captain of Vic 28 Brisbane Matching Bid Connor McFadyen / QLD / 190cm

29 North Melbourne Matching Bid Bailey Scott / QLD / 186cm

30 Melbourne Jez McLennan / Central Districts / 183cm

31 Gold Coast Jacob Kennerley / Norwood / 184cm

32 Collingwood Matching Bid Will Kelly / Oakleigh Chargers / 194cm

33 Melbourne Sydney Stack / Perth / 177cm

34 Gold Coast Fraser Turner / Tasmania / 186cm

35 Fremantle Luke Foley / Subiaco / 188cm

36 Western Bulldogs Bailey Williams / Dandenong Stingrays / 199cm

37 Essendon Tom Joyce / East Fremantle / 179cm

38 Brisbane Thomas Berry / GWV / 186cm

39 St Kilda Zac Foot / Dandenong / 180cm

40 Richmond Will Hamill / Dandenong / 185cm

41 Melbourne Matching Bid Toby Bedford / Dandenong Stingrays / 176cm

Very lively small forward who creates a lot of activity around the ball either offensively or defensively. Agile, quick, evasive cability and vision are really good and his clean with his ball use. Can overdo it a bit and can be a bit up and down but when you play that role that can happen.He generally picks the right pathway out of trouble. Will present well and doubt that he will fall through to Melbourne's rookie list. Has spent some time through the middle in games I have watched and looks ok but not sure if has the tank to do it.

42 Swans Jack Bytel / Calder Cannons / 188cm

43 West Coast Matching Bid Jarrod Cameron / Swan Districts / 180cm

44 Swans Jacob Koschitzke / Murray Bushrangers / 196cm

[Mach5 4,768]

I can’t see us taking McLennan. Looks a great prospect and ready-to-play for mine, but he’d wither on the vine waiting for a chance to play in our backline. 

Stack is an exciting player, great potential, but doesn’t seem a good cultural fit to me. I get the feeling he doesn’t suit Taylor’s MO.

[Elwood 3184 1,338]

I think it’s worth noting that after the finals and before the trades, our highest draft selection was in the latter part of the second round which would, after compensation picks, priority selection, father/son and academy bids have made our first pick around #40.

It’s now looking as though, with our bid for Toby Bedford, we will pick up three players within that range and while I don’t agree with Snoop Dog’s picks, there is enough quality available to suggest we are going to improve our list on Friday.

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

If we took Mclennan and Stack before Williams and Turner, I’d be amazed.  Snoop dog must be a Bulldogs man.  To pass Bailey Williams twice would be harder to take. 

[Whispering_Jack 30,664]

I’m definitely in the Williams camp as well but we don’t know what the recruiters are thinking. 

The player I also like is Bytel but his selection would depend very much on his medicals after an injury-affected year has seen him plummet from a top 10 prospect to a late second rounder.

[old55 23,687]

SD has GC taking the 3 top SA prospects which I guess has some possible retention value too.  It will be fascinating to see what they do. Retention has to be a factor in GC's strategy along with talent, Emma Quayle said it was for GWS in The Age podcast.  I think nabbing both King twins would have appeal.

If I'm Craig Cameron and you're Port or Adelaide try to tempt me to trade to you.

Edited November 17, 2018 by Fifty-5

[spirit of norm smith 16,588]

Bytel’s medicals are the key. His 2017 year was outstanding.  He could be the steal of the draft. Likely goes to Bulldogs or Swans at pick 32-33 range. 

[Moonshadow 17,677]

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Bytel’s medicals are the key. His 2017 year was outstanding.  He could be the steal of the draft. Likely goes to Bulldogs or Swans at pick 32-33 range. 

Yes, he looks a beauty from what I've seen (online only)

[rjay 25,088]

4 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Bytel’s medicals are the key. His 2017 year was outstanding.  He could be the steal of the draft. Likely goes to Bulldogs or Swans at pick 32-33 range. 

If Bytel's medicals are good then we take him with our first pick if he's available...

[Deemania since 56 6,717]

On 11/17/2018 at 10:21 AM, spirit of norm smith said:

If we took Mclennan and Stack before Williams and Turner, I’d be amazed.  Snoop dog must be a Bulldogs man.  To pass Bailey Williams twice would be harder to take. 

This fella is valuable to us - moreso than many, many others and given our training and player development scenario, would most probably be our best pick for 2019, with Bedford in there just below pick 30. These two would take us to some very good places with our current team structures. 

[drdrake 3,187]

19 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Bytel’s medicals are the key. His 2017 year was outstanding.  He could be the steal of the draft. Likely goes to Bulldogs or Swans at pick 32-33 range. 

From pick 30 on is going to be interesting, Sydney, Collingwood, North and the Bulldogs would be using the points from there picks to cover F/S and NGA picks, you will find some picks will move 5-8 picks forward.  Picks 26, 32, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 44, 45, 47, 48, 49 could all be used as points rather than picks.

[ChaserJ 5,157]

On 11/17/2018 at 11:26 AM, Whispering_Jack said:

I’m definitely in the Williams camp as well but we don’t know what the recruiters are thinking. 

The player I also like is Bytel but his selection would depend very much on his medicals after an injury-affected year has seen him plummet from a top 10 prospect to a late second rounder.

Bytel was very good last year.

Two I like as smokies are Daly Andrews from Western Jets (long kicking, athletic type who loves going for a run) and James Jordan (186cm Oakleigh midfielder who can play half back, great decision maker and could be the most penetrating kick in the class). For different reasons, both didn't have a tonne of exposure this year, but could be great late gets.

Edited November 19, 2018 by ChaserJ