Match Preview and Team Selection - Preliminary Final

[whatwhat say what 22,749]

smith makes sense in terms of meth coke's forwards

it's gutting for bailey, but i can understand why they have gone with this change

smith looked good watching the vfl game on tv last week

Edited September 20, 2018 by whatwhatsaywhat

[dpositive 1,665]

5 hours ago, CBDees said:

Troll! ?

Comedian!

[P-man 13,366]

Matchups aside, Fritta has been one of the weaker performers in the finals thus far. I would have dropped Tyson before him as he gets exposed on the outside, but on form Fritsch is not a big loss.

[old55 23,564]

2 hours ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

Smith can play key back on darling ,pinch hit in the ruck, fast enough to cover small quick forwards and a good intercept mark. If you know the team and how this guy plays you will see the logic. On the other hand, if he craps his pants under pressure,selection committee has egg all over its face. He has shat his dacks before and been exposed, so to bring him in with zero pressure experience is a HUGE gamble. Huge! 

I've never seen Joel Smith take a ruck contest.  Are you confusing him with Tim Smith?

I've never seen him "shat his dacks", which usually means fail to show courage.  He is crazy brave in his attack on the ball and the man and partly why he has had impact injuries.

[Gorgoroth 12,950]

Smith will need to win his first couple of contests as I feel they will channel movements through him as the least experienced and hasn’t played AFL for 6-7 weeks

[jumbo returns 6,741]

42 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

Smith will need to win his first couple of contests as I feel they will channel movements through him as the least experienced and hasn’t played AFL for 6-7 weeks

And he will

Big, strong and holds his feet

Great change

[jackaub 1,402]

This has Mistake written all over it

and this puts a lot of pressure on Smith

Dont know haow he was playing for Casey but i was completely underwhelmed when he played in the Demons

not ready in my opinion

[jumbo returns 6,741]

10 minutes ago, jackaub said:

This has Mistake written all over it

and this puts a lot of pressure on Smith

Dont know haow he was playing for Casey but i was completely underwhelmed when he played in the Demons

not ready in my opinion

Playing really, really well at Casey

He picked himself

[Brownie 5,980]

7 minutes ago, jackaub said:

This has Mistake written all over it

and this puts a lot of pressure on Smith

Dont know haow he was playing for Casey but i was completely underwhelmed when he played in the Demons

not ready in my opinion

Match report on our website - 6 possessions last week.

@Drunkn167 and @KC from Casey might be able to add more.

I do get the logic behind the change. Just wonder if the form is there to take another step not just to afl level but into the furnace of a PRELIMINARY FINAL!

I also have a lot of faith in Rawlings and this whole group playing the same way across both teams now. He must have had some strong feedback about Joel's capabilities to get the job done.

Prove the doubters (like me) wrong Joel and smash em.

I can't believe we are here after flying south to watch us get bent over by st Kilda about 8 weeks ago.

The transformation has been unbelievable.

I'm ready for the best two football games of the season.

Love the prelims. Let's oblitreate them Dees.

If we can win this, I'm super confident we'll take the flag.

Cheers to everyone over in Perth this weekend. #raisehell Dees

 

 

 

[old55 23,564]

11 hours ago, rjay said:

I think this is an important point 'bin'...

Also think someone had to take responsibility for Gunston kicking 3.5 last weekend.

Not being at the game I couldn't see the match ups but maybe Bailey was done over by a very good player?

This analysis is key to the selection of Smith.  Roughead, Schoenmakers and Gunston - 3 talls and Gunston got away and was best Hawk.

Kennedy, Vardy and Darling - even taller.

The choice betwen say Tyson and Fritsch looks like a choice between the contest which is "our brand" and kicking efficiency.  It's a trade off which focuses on what we value.

I can understand the FD thinking.

[beelzebub 23,368]

30 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

Playing really, really well at Casey

He picked himself

Casey ( insert 100 miles ) Preliminary Final

i.e. Worlds apart

Let's hope it all works out 

[jumbo returns 6,741]

4 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Casey ( insert 100 miles ) Preliminary Final

i.e. Worlds apart

Let's hope it all works out 

100 miles apart - mebbe

Smith and other players on the ground? Poles apart

I think it'll work

[beelzebub 23,368]

2 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

100 miles apart - mebbe

Smith and other players on the ground? Poles apart

I think it'll work

There's a reason ...I'm just hoping it plays that way.

It's a very bold call.

Feel for the lad. 

( Lucky more flags coming lol )

[Demon Head 273]

On 9/19/2018 at 7:31 AM, Demonland said:

MATHEMATICAL POSSIBILITY by Whispering Jack

                        ...

Out: Bayley Fritsch (omitted)

Melbourne dropped a bombshell at selection when it omitted first year player Bayley Fritsch who has surprised all and sundry with an excellent debut season in which he filled a number of roles for the team. One has to feel sorry for the kid but he will have lots of opportunities in the future and, of course, can’t be ruled out of a place if the Demons make it to this year’s Grand Final.

However, the fact that the selectors have taken the ballsy option of making a decision that is considered controversial and risky is the very thing that sets the Melbourne of 2018 apart from the Melbourne of past days.

These days, the Demons stand tall; they are prepared to take the game and any opponent on with their high risk, boisterous, crisis style of play. It’s a feature that was evident earlier in the season and has only solidified in later days. When they last traveled across the Nullarbor, they did so knowing that their place in the finals was not yet booked and that in order to make it, they needed to achieve something they hadn’t done all season - beat a top eight side.

In the case of the Eagles that meant winning in unfamiliar territory in a noisy cauldron with 50,000 hostile fans willing them on to their doom. That they came out of the game with a stirring victory achieved after fighting back when the Eagles took the lead for the first time in the last ten minutes of the game and then have backed that effort up against top eight sides another three times speaks volumes.

In physical and mental terms the achievements that have led them here is already far in excess of the mathematical distance of approximately 2,722.36 kilometres that the players have traveled to get to Saturday night’s game. In terms of development of the team over the past five years, its more akin to traveling in space at the speed of light and a foreign ground, the noise of affirmation, the return to the opposition of their twin towers are all powerless to stop this team’s forward surge.

Melbourne by 27 points..

This.

Edited September 20, 2018 by Demon Head

[Deemania since 56 6,635]

10 hours ago, praha said:

Terrible call.

Tyson should be out. Fritsch to the wing. Smith to back.

No you're talking ... big one from Spargo near goals/feeding; Smith the added height and mobility to the backline in tandem with other fine backs; Fritsch should be on the wing roaming to half-fwd; Tyson out as a liability at this stage. 

[Deemania since 56 6,635]

43 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Casey ( insert 100 miles ) Preliminary Final

i.e. Worlds apart

Let's hope it all works out 

Encouraging few weeks, maturing at Casey is just great. Hope he gives the Eagles a few headaches and stone walls.

[Ted Lasso 19,514]

Put it down to bias and overconfidence but I have a feeling we are going to jump them bigtime and be 7-8 goals in front by early in the second quarter and then probably only win by that much. 

I reckon track has been hovering around a genuinely dominant performance and me Hollywood will put on a show tomorrow night and blast the eagles out of the water. 

I also think Viney will be like a wrecking ball in the contest and the eagles have nothing that can even close to match him. 

If the eagles were smart I’d be tagging Viney not Oliver. 

People talk about Kennedy and darling but on current form I think tommy and weid are every bit as big a threat, and the forward we have around them are all capable of kicking bags. 

My feeling is the eagles think the two key forwards will make the difference and we are going over there hungry and riding a wave of support and emotion and we will be amazingly hard to stop if we can get a roll on at any stage. This is a team that could kick 10-12 goals straight because of that and the way we play 

 

go dees - dees by 41 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

I'd be backing the football department in, rather than raging about whether Fritsch or Tyson should have gone.

They have a clear unemotional rationale, and after a while thinking about it, it makes sense to combat a forward line with a drifting Vardy as well with a combative, less then silky player of half back. It's a horses for courses decision, we have silk on two sides of half back with Salem and Hibberd, and Smith's athleticism in the air as well as his ability to halve contests will be vital.

Mind you, Fritsch 'may be tired' and he may not... he did put his body on the line in a clutch situation and marked in front of Roughhead in the last, so it's not merely a combative style vs silk argument.

[Deemania since 56 6,635]

8 hours ago, binman said:

At the time of writing the odds for this game are eagles 1.80 and dees 2.05. Which is about right.

No question that the eagles deserve to be favorites. They've had a great season, have a good system and a very dangerous forward line, particularly their medium size forwards. And it goes without saying they have a huge home ground advantage. How big an advantage? Well, i reckon the odds would be reversed if this game was at the G.

Leaving all that to one side i really believe we will win this game. And if we clik we could even do a number on them.

The key reasons for my confidence are:

• Momentum: we have it in spades
• Confidence: see above
• Belief: see above
• Settled team: since the west coast game we have had only three players out -  Kent, JKH and the dreadfully unlucky Fritter. Super important from both an injury and team synergy perspective
• From our best possible 22 we only have Lever and hogan not playing (with Kent close)
• They have 3 of their best 22 out in Nik Nat, Gaff and Sheppard (and arguably 2 of their best 3 out) and these outs hurt them more than ours do us as they can't cover them as well, particularly Nik Nat and Gaff
• McEvoy held his own against Max, unsurprising given he is a top shelf ruckman. This was big factor in them leading  clearances and inside 50s at half time. Lycett and Vardy will struggle to come close to containing maxy let alone match him. Gives us a huge advantage in terms of clearances
• On clearances, we are third in the AFL for clearances (WC  13th) and 1st for center clearances (WC 10th)  
• We travel well. I think i am right in saying we have won 6 of our last 7 interstate games, with the one loss being the Port game we should have won
• The ground suits us as it is narrower than the g by some 30 metres and will make it hard for WC to find space, chip it around and escape our suffocating pressure - not to mention get through our press 
• The perfect conditions suit us as quick, clean hands are so critical to our quick transition and ball movement, which are the key factors in our high scoring game style (and conversely a reason why we struggle in the wet)
• As has been noted by many commentators WC win if they get within a -11 differential for contested ball. We average +18. They will have to bring some serious heat to stop us winning the contested ball. Hawks did and kept with us - until we got on top in contested ball
• On that point our contested ball, high pressure style matches up well against their more traditional style of accurate, surgical kicking as it disrupts their kicking accuracy and creates damaging turnovers
• Our style is built for finals and theirs is susceptible to finals pressure (like GWS last week)
• Tackles will play a big role in creating pressure -  we are number 1 in the AFL for tackles. 70.7 tackles a game to WC's 60.6 a game (15th)
• Yes Kennedy in is huge and obviously having Darling play a full match helps (though it is worth noting we already 3 goals up when he was injured i think) but Sheppard is a big loss for them as Hanna, Spargo and Trac are dangerous
• But more significant is our in - the raging bull. I admit i am guilty of underestimating the value Viney would bring to the team in the finals. He has been incredible and is a critical addition given how crucial contested ball will be
• And whilst Weed played in the last game he is almost a different player now such is his form. Certainly a bigger threat
• Yes Kennedy and Darling represent a major threat (though i worry more about Jetta, Rioli and Ryan) but since we played WC we have kept three very good sides in perfect conditions to an average of 58 points. Our all team defensive game is working and our back six have been terrific
• That all team defensive pressure will ensure Kennedy and Darling won't get the silver service they have got in their 11 wins together
• Besides for all their supposed forward line strength we are the number one scoring side, by some margin, and average almost two goals a game more than WC 
• Add to that we are the number 1 side for marks inside 50 with 14.8 per game. WC are 7th with 11.5 - they better worry about our forward line!
•  We have yet to hit our straps and as Moncology noted before the hawks game we still have gears we can go up. If we click on Saturday there is a real chance we will, at some point, kick 4,5,6 goals in quick succession as we have done all year
• If we do that in the first quarter we will take the wind out of the sails of WC and their fans and we will be very hard to beat
• The crowd noise will be pure Fugazi to the dees
• The 2, 600 demons fans - demonland posters among them - will carry the torch for all demon fans around the country
• It's the vibe

These comments and stats and multiple analyses indicate very strongly how well-favoured and 'cared for' the Eagles have been all season against any travelling opponent to their home territory. It is an obvious, underlying theme of protective crowd appeasement, and assumption. This game is another turning point for this repetitive, underpinning and disturbing AFL trend. The change will again be left to the Dees to enact and do so they will. Dees by 40pts, at least. Too slick involving every red 'n blue player. 

[Wollongong Demon 182]

13 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Fritta is stiff, but they obviously have a clear role in mind for J. Smith, one that probably frees Hibberd up to play a more attacking role alongside Salem and Lewis.

 

He will be back in next week for the big one.

[Superunknown 4,217]

Parking the actual decision and its rationale to one side: whilst I understand people's need to say "there'll be other chances", the thing about that is: well, there may not be.

We might win this week. But he might not make it back in. Might be injured at Casey. We might not make a(nother) GF for a long time. Sure he'll play in wins again, probably finals, and likely PFs, but nothing is certain.

That's not meant to sound offensive to people trying to be sympathetic.

In any case, I hope JS does his job, I hope we win, and I hope BF gets back in next week.

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

As I recall, J Smith laid a buckload of tackles and did a big defensive job (with Kielty and Petty) against the Bombers, without getting a bucketload of possessions himself.  Goody said we didn’t play well, and Frittata was on the quiet end of the list.

Joel took a couple of games to step up to AFL last time, this time he does not have that luxury.  Needs to be a crazy defensive beast that plays his role. 

Frittata should play wing or forward at Casey and prove he is ready if we need him.should we get through to the big dance.

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

2 minutes ago, -Ⓥ- said:

Parking the actual decision and its rationale to one side: whilst I understand people's need to say "there'll be other chances", the thing about that is: well, there may not be.

We might win this week. But he might not make it back in. Might be injured at Casey. We might not make a(nother) GF for a long time. Sure he'll play in wins again, probably finals, and likely PFs, but nothing is certain.

That's not meant to sound offensive to people trying to be sympathetic.

In any case, I hope JS does his job, I hope we win, and I hope BF gets back in next week.

If we were selecting a team on ‘feels’ then Bernie and Pedo would be in the side too.  Best to choose the team that they think is best suited to get it done.

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

Tough decision with Fritsch but there may be even tougher ones if we get through to the GF. Comes with the territory.

[M_9 2,082]

Qjartermain said on 3AW this morning that the rumour around WC was that Kennedy was playing on one leg.

Geez, it'd be a bonus if he didn't see out the game.