Run home to Finals - 2018

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

25 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

Geelong in Geelong
Adelaide in Adelaide
Sydney at the MCG
Eagles in Perth
GWS at the MCG

Call me silly but I can see 3 wins at least in there with their effort last night and a few tweaks. Tough?? Yes....but not impossible.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,477]

Form lines never work in football, but let’s bear in mind that we played a very close, finals-like match against a team that beat Richmond at home a couple of weeks back.  We’re playing some good footy, just need to find consistency against in-form teams.

FWIW- I did a ladder predictor Thursday afternoon and by Thursday night it was already wrong after Essendon beat WCE.  Impossible to see how the 8 will pan out at this stage.

[Demons11 6,915]

48 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

I thought it best to start a central thread to discuss finals 2018, as a lot of this discussion is being lost in weekly game day/post match threads.

The last two matches have put a significant dent in our campaign for finals. The Collingwood game was a write-off, but the Port game last night was a definite opportunity missed. We absolutely dominated that game and Port stole an undeserved victory. I'm absolutely f*cking fuming we lost, but what's done is done and we now have to look forward.

We currently sit 5th on the ladder with a ledger of 8-5. We're lumped in with a number of teams fighting for a spot. Usually 12-13 wins is all that's required to make finals. This year however a higher number of teams have racked up wins than usual, and 14 wins will be required to guarantee a finals place. Barring an insane run of form, top 4 is now gone. What we do have in our favour at present is our percentage relative to competing teams around the mark.

Our run home presents some challenges now. We play Saints, Freo, Dogs and Suns. That's 4 wins we should bank. That takes us to 12 wins, meaning to hold a spot in the 8 and play finals we'll need to win 2 more matches. The other matches are:
Geelong in Geelong
Adelaide in Adelaide
Sydney at the MCG
Eagles in Perth
GWS at the MCG

So the question is, which of these 2 matches are we going to win? 
Personally I think we'll account for GWS at the MCG, but I struggle to see us winning any of the others based on form. The Crows in Adelaide looks to be our best chance, but who knows if their form will turn around before then as they get some key players back. Obviously a lot can change over this time, but what are everyones thoughts? Will we still make finals? How much have we improved? Have we actually improved? How do you you our season playing out?

Note: This thread is not intended to be a b*tch session, it's to have genuine discussion on the remainder of our season as we strive to play finals for the first time in over a decade.

Massive chance to knock over the Cats 

[Big Demon 197]

We are the sixth best team in the comp, dropping the match to a lesser team last night doesn’t help.

of those matches we will lose to Geelong and Sydney and beat the other three.

[D4Life 2,439]

5 minutes ago, Big Demon said:

We are the sixth best team in the comp, dropping the match to a lesser team last night doesn’t help.

of those matches we will lose to Geelong and Sydney and beat the other three.

Port in Adelaide with home crowd and a 6 goal umpiring advantage, are a top 2-3 team, away they are an 8-9 team!

[spalding 1,128]

If we bring the same effort as last nights game to the rest of the year we can win any game anywhere.

we need more science with our forward entries, but last nights game was finals intensity - around 100 tackles to 90, so it was never going to be clean entries. 

port primed themselves for this game, bought their maximum intensity for the full game, and still needed the rub of the (men in) green and crowd to win it.

would love another crack at them in a final anytime anywhere. I think we have heaps more upside than they do.

[brendan 3,434]

Let’s be honest apart from the 4 we should win if we can’t win any of the other remaining games we don’t deserve finals anyway, I just hope we have a finals spot locked up before round 23, I don’t think we deserve to go through that again

[gregdemon 624]

 got 2017 written all over it..  9th.   drop one of the s0 called easy games against saints  dogs  etc  cooked! Unless win  one against the odds..  Eagles  or geelong at geelong.    I have never been an umpire smasher  but last quarter was disgraceful. I was watching at work with other neutral supporters....  all agreed..   Port got everything we got nothin.     

I expected the newspaper front  page to say today Demons robbed at Port.  still waiting for the headline !!      We are not far off bust just cannot quite take next step.

 

[nosoupforme 3,085]

3 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

I thought it best to start a central thread to discuss finals 2018, as a lot of this discussion is being lost in weekly game day/post match threads.

The last two matches have put a significant dent in our campaign for finals. The Collingwood game was a write-off, but the Port game last night was a definite opportunity missed. We absolutely dominated that game and Port stole an undeserved victory. I'm absolutely f*cking fuming we lost, but what's done is done and we now have to look forward.

We currently sit 5th on the ladder with a ledger of 8-5. We're lumped in with a number of teams fighting for a spot. Usually 12-13 wins is all that's required to make finals. This year however a higher number of teams have racked up wins than usual, and 14 wins will be required to guarantee a finals place. Barring an insane run of form, top 4 is now gone. What we do have in our favour at present is our percentage relative to competing teams around the mark.

Our run home presents some challenges now. We play Saints, Freo, Dogs and Suns. That's 4 wins we should bank. That takes us to 12 wins, meaning to hold a spot in the 8 and play finals we'll need to win 2 more matches. The other matches are:
Geelong in Geelong
Adelaide in Adelaide
Sydney at the MCG
Eagles in Perth
GWS at the MCG

So the question is, which of these 2 matches are we going to win? 
Personally I think we'll account for GWS at the MCG, but I struggle to see us winning any of the others based on form. The Crows in Adelaide looks to be our best chance, but who knows if their form will turn around before then as they get some key players back. Obviously a lot can change over this time, but what are everyones thoughts? Will we still make finals? How much have we improved? Have we actually improved? How do you you our season playing out?

Note: This thread is not intended to be a b*tch session, it's to have genuine discussion on the remainder of our season as we strive to play finals for the first time in over a decade.

A week at a time as the saying goes. However who says that we may need 14 games to make it? It may work out that we make it with less wins. I believe we will make it as the guys are determined. Furthermore, we need one big bodied backman  which is the solution.

Frost deserves a go. 

[DeleteUser 638]

8 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Assuming we win the next 3 and are in a great position, we then have Geelong at Geelong.  Thats the one we want. We need a scalp.

This is not the scalp you're looking for

[DeleteUser 638]

1 hour ago, nosoupforme said:

A week at a time as the saying goes. However who says that we may need 14 games to make it? It may work out that we make it with less wins. I believe we will make it as the guys are determined. Furthermore, we need one big bodied backman  which is the solution.

Frost deserves a go. 

Prithee, where may I see examples of this determination ? 

[DeleteUser 638]

3 hours ago, spalding said:

If we bring the same effort as last nights game to the rest of the year we can win any game anywhere.

we need more science with our forward entries, but last nights game was finals intensity - around 100 tackles to 90, so it was never going to be clean entries. 

port primed themselves for this game, bought their maximum intensity for the full game, and still needed the rub of the (men in) green and crowd to win it.

would love another crack at them in a final anytime anywhere. I think we have heaps more upside than they do.

I'd love for us to prime ourselves for a game like this 

[Moonshadow 17,675]

I see 4 more wins, with a chance at 2 more. Expecting 12 wins total. Win the other 2 and we make finals

[whatwhat say what 22,682]

at the end of the season going into round 23 i see us 2 points ahead of gw$ with the winner to make the 8

i think we'll bottle it and finish 2 points outside the 8

[deelete my account 1,194]

2 hours ago, timbo said:

This is not the scalp you're looking for

Goody has a bit of work to do if he's going to beat Chris Scott. I do think we can match them everywhere else around the ground though.

Edited June 23, 2018 by John Demonic

[DeleteUser 638]

25 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

Goody has a bit of work to do if he's going to beat Chris Scott. I do think we can match them everywhere else around the ground though.

I'll be happy if we scalp whomever is coaching st kilda when we play them, the muffin man (to dispel ambiguity I am referring to his royal highness the earl of muffintown Dew) and his rag tag bunch of merry serfs, and the 2016 premieres. I have a shocking feeling we'll lose one. Then lose every single game from there. The only scalp at risk thenceforth will be in the bar on end of season muck up day

[Bonkers 994]

8 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

So the question is, which of these 2 matches are we going to win? 
Personally I think we'll account for GWS at the MCG, but I struggle to see us winning any of the others based on form. The Crows in Adelaide looks to be our best chance, but who knows if their form will turn around before then as they get some key players back. Obviously a lot can change over this time, but what are everyones thoughts? Will we still make finals? How much have we improved? Have we actually improved? How do you you our season playing out?

Note: This thread is not intended to be a b*tch session, it's to have genuine discussion on the remainder of our season as we strive to play finals for the first time in over a decade.

I think there has been improvements. The Hawthorn and Collingwood games were backward steps. However the losses to Geelong and Port should have been wins, we dominated both games however couldn't convert our dominance onto the scoreboard. Geelong and Port are both vying for that 4th spot and even though we have lost both games against those 2 we really should have won. If we can learn our lessons and convert our I50 dominance into scores we are a top 4 team. The margins between being a top 4 side and just outside the 8 are pretty tight at the moment. They have to take that next step as a team.

Right now it hurts to have those losses, but last year Richmond were at the exact same stage as we are at now in terms of wins and losses. Unfortunately in terms of personnel Lever is injured whereas for Richmond Rance remained fit.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Bonkers

[Dr.D 1,771]

cant see us playing finals. i actually think after what happened last season that it was a disgrace that supporters even mentioned finals, let alone top 4. it was laughable.

i think we'll finish on 12 wins at the best which i don't think will be enough.

norths win tonight hurts us a lot. 

Edited June 23, 2018 by Dr.D

[nosoupforme 3,085]

5 hours ago, timbo said:

Prithee, where may I see examples of this determination ? 

To Timbo,  for sooth l say unto you verily verily the next three combats. AND YONDER !

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by nosoupforme
?????

[What 18,810]

We are now in the 8 only on %. 

We are just half a game from 10th spot. 

The last 11 seasons have prepared the fans for these last 9 games..  its going to be scary.

[WERRIDEE 5,443]

I'm worried about the Freo game we usually don't play well at Darwin and you never know what Freo will bring to the table.

[DeleteUser 638]

2 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

I'm worried about the Freo game we usually don't play well at Darwin and you never know what Freo will bring to the table.

Yibbida yibbida 

[Sir Why You Little 36,963]

9 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

 we usually don't play well at Darwin 

Or the weeks after.....

[beelzebub 23,313]

Maybe i have a different take than some:

Many seem locked into the mathematical semantics of making the 8. For mine that's somewhat irrelevant..that is...just making the 8.

Our 9 game run home sees us up against 4 teams that all but will be in the 8 and 2 ( maybe 3 ) that might upset us by looking for a scalp.

Its not enough to make the 8. You have to be there with menace. You have to be relevant and not a stocking stuffer.

If we don't win 6 of the next we wont be in any shape, gamewise or momentum to do much more than spectate.

Much work ahead...any more injury ( of note ) and a wheel will come off our little red and blue wagon.

The games against Richmond , Collingwood and Port reminded me of finals in so much as its PRESSURE PRESSURE PRESSURE. 

3 times ...for no wins

I wont be keeping September free.

[beelzebub 23,313]

22 hours ago, spalding said:

If we bring the same effort as last nights game to the rest of the year we can win any game anywhere.

we need more science with our forward entries, but last nights game was finals intensity - around 100 tackles to 90, so it was never going to be clean entries. 

port primed themselves for this game, bought their maximum intensity for the full game, and still needed the rub of the (men in) green and crowd to win it.

would love another crack at them in a final anytime anywhere. I think we have heaps more upside than they do.

Yes Port did prime themselves...well...did some homework.

As will everyone else we'll play. Itll all be same same but different.

If we dont account for the likes of Geelong, Sydney, Weagles going into finals what makes anyone confident of taking the loliies off them in then ?