I thought this was going to be an ill-timed thread about Jordan Lewis.

Gary Lyon also mentioned the top 8 being set ater the last round in previous years on SEN this monring. But they went on to say that realistically there are still 3 teams outside the 8 who could make it in & that it's not really set as yet (they then went on to say % is a good indicator of the top 8 too).

14 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

We have three losses, to 1st, 3rd and 5th.

That kind of suggests we are in the right spot on the ladder.

But I still feel like there's more to be gained. Despite our three recent wins being against out of form teams, there have been genuine signs that we are functioning better structurally. If this 'soft' period has given us a chance to play ourselves into form, then hurrah and carry on!

The real danger is that the team will start getting thirsty for a bit of bathwater...

I'd love to play those sides again with the team we have at present.  Tom Mac being in the side, along with the role Weideman is playing, has made us such a better side.  We are getting an even contribution across the ground, and now that our backline is settled we have looked terrific down there as well.

If we can knock off the Blues, and do it well, then I'll be pretty excited for the rest of the season ahead as we'll have knocked off 4 teams we are expected to beat 4 weeks in a row.  That's a big, positive step forward for a footy club that has struggled with that in recent times.

We have beaten teams placed 18th, 16th, 15th, 14th & 10th and about to play the 17th Team.

We have lost to teams placed 1st, 3rd & 5th.

 

Its a reminder for us to not get carried away. i admit we are playing ok footy, but until we beat teams in the 8 i am no more excited now that i was at the start of the year. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

36 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

We have beaten teams placed 18th, 16th, 15th, 14th & 10th and about to play the 17th Team.

We have lost to teams placed 1st, 3rd & 5th.

 

Its a reminder for us to not get carried away. i admit we are playing ok footy, but until we beat teams in the 8 i am no more excited now that i was at the start of the year. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

Excellent point.  I honestly don't know how we are going.  Each time we've played a decent team, we have lost.  Have we improved since the Richmond loss?  It looks like it but we won't know until the Crows game.  Jury is still out for mine.

Bulldogs after the Blues will not be a gimme ...

I assume it is at our fortress... The Dome at Docklands.

Boy ... imagine playing for 6 straight !!...... It's been a long time

21 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

As long as we make the eight i'll be wrapped.  I heard someone on radio say today that if you're in the eight after round 9 you stay (or something like that!).

Across the last 20 seasons the 8 does not alter after round 9. However over this period there have been compromised drafts and new teams so not bullet proof trend but generally the best predictor.

 

5 hours ago, Demon3 said:

We have beaten teams placed 18th, 16th, 15th, 14th & 10th and about to play the 17th Team.

We have lost to teams placed 1st, 3rd & 5th.

 

Its a reminder for us to not get carried away. i admit we are playing ok footy, but until we beat teams in the 8 i am no more excited now that i was at the start of the year. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

I pencil in the geelong loss as a sort of win and not relevant in the analysis.

As of this round the team has won its last 10 quarters in a row. Irrespective of the opposition when on earth had that last happened?. As bolts says. I see green shoots

8 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Across the last 20 seasons the 8 does not alter after round 9. However over this period there have been compromised drafts and new teams so not bullet proof trend but generally the best predictor.

 

last year at Round 9 the Bulldogs and Freo were in the 8.

Tiges were 7th with saints 9th.

In 2016 the 8 was settled very early with only North going on its losing streak and just about falling out. it was probably the earliest it has occurred in recent years.

(Just go to the AFL ladder site and you can search the ladder for the last several years at any time of that season.)

Like your thinking though !!

Edited May 14, 20187 yr by Diamond_Jim

9 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

Across the last 20 seasons the 8 does not alter after round 9. However over this period there have been compromised drafts and new teams so not bullet proof trend but generally the best predictor.

 

thanks for the update 17

20 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

We have three losses, to 1st, 3rd and 5th.

That kind of suggests we are in the right spot on the ladder.

But I still feel like there's more to be gained. Despite our three recent wins being against out of form teams, there have been genuine signs that we are functioning better structurally. If this 'soft' period has given us a chance to play ourselves into form, then hurrah and carry on!

The real danger is that the team will start getting thirsty for a bit of bathwater...

With Jack and Jeff pushing to return, no player can afford to be complacent, and our spread of miss stepping up is impressive (cusps Harmes)...

Yes the last 3 wins has been against poor sides but it is the way we have won those games that counts, we beat GC easily the dogs just fell over the line last week against them. You can tell when a team is  struggling when they just beat bottom sides  or lose to them, last year we only had a winning margin of about 22 points, it is double that at the moment. We only had 3 wins last year by more then 30 points we already have 4.

Dees will smash the Crows in the Alice!

After and before we do the same to the Blues and Dogs... 

16 hours ago, Demon3 said:

We have beaten teams placed 18th, 16th, 15th, 14th & 10th and about to play the 17th Team.

We have lost to teams placed 1st, 3rd & 5th.

 

Its a reminder for us to not get carried away. i admit we are playing ok footy, but until we beat teams in the 8 i am no more excited now that i was at the start of the year. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

Exactly, said this last week. I’m not jumping on the kool aid love train for Goodwin or the team yet. Although am very happy at the moment. What it is doing is building confidence. We have played poorly in the Essendon, St Kilda and Gold Coast games with inept skills, do that against a good side and we’re toast. Gold Coast coming off an 8 week run on the road look exhausted 

Edited May 14, 20187 yr by SFebey

17 hours ago, Demon17 said:

Across the last 20 seasons the 8 does not alter after round 9. However over this period there have been compromised drafts and new teams so not bullet proof trend but generally the best predictor.

 

Last year round 9 Sydney were 12th - Western Bulldogs 8th - Sydney finished 6th Dogs 10th

Or round 10 - Sydney 15th Dogs 4th

 

Edit: Diamond Jim had pointed out anomalies before me. I hadn't read his fine effort.

Edited May 15, 20187 yr by ManDee

28 minutes ago, ManDee said:

Last year round 9 Sydney were 12th - Western Bulldogs 8th - Sydney finished 6th Dogs 10th

Or round 10 - Sydney 15th Dogs 4th

 

Edit: Diamond Jim had pointed out anomalies before me. I hadn't read his fine effort.

Talk about pedantic.  If you read my post it mentioned " not bullet proof"  and " generally best indicator" .

Its the best statistical view available on facts, given some commentators were saying clearly after Round 7, with no research.

 

In other words, better to be in the 8 than out at this time of the season.

48 minutes ago, Demon17 said:

In other words, better to be in the 8 than out at this time of the season.

or any time of the year ?

1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

Talk about pedantic.  If you read my post it mentioned " not bullet proof"  and " generally best indicator" .

Its the best statistical view available on facts, given some commentators were saying clearly after Round 7, with no research.

 

In other words, better to be in the 8 than out at this time of the season.

Pedantic! You said "Across the last 20 seasons the 8 does not alter after round 9"

2017 You are wrong

2016 Correct

2015 You are wrong

2014 You are wrong 

2013 You are wrong

Statistically you have ignored the facts. I have not bothered to go any further, I am not that pedantic. 

 

Edit:- OK I am pedantic. 2012 You are also wrong . Sorry about the bold, it won't go away.

   Edit 2 :- The 2012 to 2017 period  there have been  48 final spots, of those over 25% of those in the 8 after round 9 do not reach the final 8. So as a rough guide it is an indicator. And it is obviously better to be in the 8. But as industry funds tell us, past results do not guarantee future results. 

Edited May 15, 20187 yr by ManDee

Interesting that we are debating at what point the 8 doesn’t change.

There was a fairly significant change to the top 8 just last year between rounds 22 and 23.

 

Just now, FarNorthernD said:

Interesting that we are debating at what point the 8 doesn’t change.

There was a fairly significant change to the top 8 just last year between rounds 22 and 23.

 

please don't remind me .... please

On 5/14/2018 at 11:30 AM, Demon3 said:

We have beaten teams placed 18th, 16th, 15th, 14th & 10th and about to play the 17th Team.

We have lost to teams placed 1st, 3rd & 5th.

 

Its a reminder for us to not get carried away. i admit we are playing ok footy, but until we beat teams in the 8 i am no more excited now that i was at the start of the year. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating.

Yes, but the difference between us making the 8 and missing last year was losing to sides outside the 8 when we should win (North x2, Freo, Hawthorn, Collingwood). The first step for our club is simply to make the finals. Anything could happen from there. If we smash Carlton this week and continue beating teams outside the 8 we will have improved.

FWIW if we beat all the teams in the bottom 4 it will be the first time in the Roos/Goodwin rebuild we have done so...

Edited May 15, 20187 yr by deejammin'

5 hours ago, ManDee said:

 

 

Edit:- OK I am pedantic. 2012 You are also wrong . Sorry about the bold, it won't go away.

   Edit 2 :- The 2012 to 2017 period  there have been  48 final spots, of those over 25% of those in the 8 after round 9 do not reach the final 8. So as a rough guide it is an indicator. And it is obviously better to be in the 8. But as industry funds tell us, past results do not guarantee future results. 

Industry funds have that clause to avoid class actions for poor future performance, not because its true,  but history is an indicator of behaviours. 

1929, 1987, 2008,  etc.

On 13 May 2018 at 10:19 PM, doug williams said:

Dieter - it was James Joyce, the Irish writer. He said “Life is in many days...”.

T. S. Eliot was a British born poet, playwright and critic who changed his nationality to become a US citizen. As a side note he also dropped the Anglican Church for Roman Catholicism.

I don,t believe he barracked for the Dees though.

In fairness to Skinny- TS did measure out his days with coffee spoons.

On 5/14/2018 at 6:35 PM, Demon17 said:

Across the last 20 seasons the 8 does not alter after round 9. However over this period there have been compromised drafts and new teams so not bullet proof trend but generally the best predictor.

 

What about 2014? Richmond were 3-10 I think and made the finals

15 hours ago, deejammin' said:

Yes, but the difference between us making the 8 and missing last year was losing to sides outside the 8 when we should win (North x2, Freo, Hawthorn, Collingwood). The first step for our club is simply to make the finals. Anything could happen from there. If we smash Carlton this week and continue beating teams outside the 8 we will have improved.

FWIW if we beat all the teams in the bottom 4 it will be the first time in the Roos/Goodwin rebuild we have done so...

yes you are correct.. it is important to beat the teams we should.. teams below us on the ladder. but to make the 8 we need to beat  top 8 teams..  Even Essendon have beaten Adelaide and Port, Collingwood Beat Adelaide and that is my point until we get a scalp and a few of them, i think we are where we were before the start of the year.. in the mix for the 8 depending on if we can beat sides that are higher on ladder.