St Kilda hype???

[Billy 2,521]

Hi everybody

1st time long time?

Im a bit confused with all the hype about StKilda. They will beat us, that's a given but l don't think they will be as good as us, does that make sense?

I think our running defenders are better, midfield bats deeper and forward line is better.

If we can stop their No12 who normally tears us apart (surely he'll be slowing down!) there should be no reason why we can't finish above them

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

I agree Billy, I don't fancy St Kilda to be as consistent as us this year  - nor do I believe the ceiling of their players are as high as our list. Nonetheless - they can have as much hype as the media give them - its all irrelevant as they won't buy into it - and if they perform poorly - the media rewrites the script retrospectively - a la, the youth coming through Melbourne vs The tiges - circa 2010-2015 - each year there was a preseason write up and even direct comparisons and the HeraldSun chopped and change. 

[Ted Lasso 19,284]

The saints are a strong chance to play finals, if they have the young talent to cover the loss of senior guys over the next few years remains to be seen but I can understand the hype for 2017

[Adam The God 30,120]

Welcome Billy.

I'll be really interested to see how Goodwin plans for this. It's a fascinating first duel for him. His defensive set up was badly exposed on both occasions last year, so it'll be be telling what tinkers and tweaks he's made.

The closer we get to the season proper, the more exited I am that we're playing first up at Etihad - a ground I despise. It's the perfect test to see where we're at and our credentials for September. Have we shed the soft underbelly or do we remain mentally susceptible?

We'll know a lot by the end of Round 1. Which is great. Little room for [censored] teasing.

As for the Saints, they've actually got some pretty impressive KP stocks nowadays, but their midfield going forward remains a liability. One or two do a lot of heavy lifting in the engine room and make the rest look a lot better than they are.

Edited February 9, 2017 by A F

[Adzman 2,154]

Most of their top 10 players are over 30 or approaching it. They will take a step back in the next year or two before stepping forward.

 

[The Chief 697]

Not sure where this myth about the age of St.Kilda's list comes from.

At the end of the 2017 season they will only have 3 players aged over 30 on their list - Riewoldt, Gilbert and Montagna. Riewoldt has stated he has no plans to retire over next few years and his form last year supports this.  Losing Montagna and Gilbert at the end of this season shouldn't cause them much pain. They currently have 2 first round picks in the 2017 draft, so if they aren't already close to where Melbourne's list development is at now, they will close the gap further after this year's draft. 

[The Chazz 4,077]

51 minutes ago, Adzman said:

Most of their top 10 players are over 30 or approaching it. They will take a step back in the next year or two before stepping forward.

 

This stat is so overstated about St Kilda, especially on this forum.

From their Top 11 B&F in 2016, they had;  1 x 22 year old, 2 x 24, 1 x 25, 1 x 26, 1 x 27 and 2 x 28.  3 of their top 11 are over 30.

They are relying on their 20-24 year olds to take the next step, just as much as we are relying on ours.

 

 

Edited February 9, 2017 by billy2803
spelling/grammar

[Adam The God 30,120]

5 minutes ago, billy2803 said:

This stat is so overestimated at St Kilda, especially on this forum.

From their Top 11 B&F in 2016, they had;  1 x 22 year old, 2 x 24, 1 x 25, 1 x 26, 1 x 27 and 2 x 28.  3 of their top 11 are over 30.

They are relying on their 20-24 year olds to take the next step, just as much as we are relying on ours.

 

 

The difference is hows is top end talent. There's isn't. Particularly, in the midfield. 

[The Chazz 4,077]

Just now, A F said:

The difference is hows is top end talent. There's isn't. Particularly, in the midfield. 

We hope ours is.  Just like every other club in the AFL.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I think we have something very special, but I'm sure most supporters of all clubs still have belief in their list.  I have a couple of Richmond and Carlton associates and even they think they can win the flag this year!

[Meggs 595]

Punters reckon there are 7 teams gonna make it and there is only one spot from last year's group up for grabs (the Kanga's).

We are 1 of about 5 sides considered likely.   Rohan Connolly reckons he can make a case for all teams bar Brisbane to make the 8

A big footy punter 'told' me at the tennis that spot 8 is between Saints and Pies (which surprised me)...thought Dees will be 11-13.

Our hopes are pinned on the realisation of potential.  Until we consistently win the games where we are favourites, the footy world will not rate us.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Meggs

[DeeSpencer 25,444]

Comparing us v them is pretty difficult because there's probably more differences than similarities. 

So if you just study St Kilda's trajectory without us they have a strong case for the 8.

If you break down their best 22 you can see they have a really even side. 

Backline - 7
Talls - Carlisle fills a huge hole. Dempster (Or N Brown), Roberton
Smalls - Geary, Savage, Webster, Montagna have played a lot together. That might not be a great backline but it's a reliable 7 without a weakness. Webster's the youngest of the lot and has played 50 games. They'll have to replace Montagna and Dempster but at the moment they play at a high level.

Midfield - 8
Inside: Steven is a gun. Ross is underrated. Armitage, Dunstan will now get pressure from handy depth imports in Steele and Stevens. Again, solid. Freeman is a wildcard as well.
Outside; Riewoldt on a wing is a beast. Newnes is handy.
Ruck - Hickey is an above average ruck, Bruce does enough as a back up. Plus they have some ok depth options
Utility - Gilbert is someone they probably have to pension off but he works really hard covering the ground

Forward - 7
Talls - McCartin, Bruce, Membrey, with the option of Riewoldt chopping in. That's a strong trio. 
Smalls - Weller (handy role player), Billings (unfulfilled but still decent), Gresham - very classy. Acres is the player Saints fans rave about who tore us apart last year but otherwise has some good and bad days.

So yeah they probably lack star power but they are filled with hard working players. Their backline has good skill and a lot of experience to set up. Their midfield and forward line has a lot of hard workers and hard runners which helps their game style. 

They main reason why I think they are strong chance for the 8 is their coaching. 

Richo has been building for 3 years with a similar plan and each year they add to it a bit but mainly they just manage to sustain it for longer and against better opposition. They also do things like kick outs really well which shows to me they have coaches with will executed plans and players who are on board with them.

Carlisle is the big trade in but mainly they are a list that's been building with a coach. I think it's fair to expect they progress because so far every season under Richardson has followed a steady trajectory and they seem to be together as a club and not reliant on individuals.

 

[Demon Jack 6,859]

The Saints have a good side this year. Although, If they want to give the finals series a shake, this is the year they need to do it. Riewoldt, Montagna, Gilbert and Dempster could all be playing their final season. Their young players are good, but I'm not sure if they're at the level to potentially cover the loss of around 1000 games of experience. Happy to be proven wrong though, they play some exciting football when they're "on".

 

[BAMF 4,299]

What hype?

[Akum 2,660]

4 hours ago, A F said:

Welcome Billy.

I'll be really interested to see how Goodwin plans for this. It's a fascinating first duel for him. His defensive set up was badly exposed on both occasions last year, so it'll be be telling what tinkers and tweaks he's made.

...

 

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

...

 

The main reason why I think they are strong chance for the 8 is their coaching. 

Richo has been building for 3 years with a similar plan and each year they add to it a bit but mainly they just manage to sustain it for longer and against better opposition. They also do things like kick outs really well which shows to me they have coaches with will executed plans and players who are on board with them.

... they are a list that's been building with a coach. I think it's fair to expect they progress because so far every season under Richardson has followed a steady trajectory and they seem to be together as a club and not reliant on individuals.

They will comprehensively out coach us tactically again, like they've done each time for the past 3 years with a weaker side. 

[DeeSpencer 25,444]

18 minutes ago, Akum said:

 

They will comprehensively out coach us tactically again, like they've done each time for the past 3 years with a weaker side. 

I don't know about that. I think they match up really well against us. That's why Roos + Goodwin couldn't make the tactical moves because they simply had match up advantages. At the same time we've been trying to develop a team and a game style so we haven't exactly made a whole heap of tactical changes week to week. It's hard to do that with a young side - look at Terry Wallace who was a great tactician but couldn't put together a side properly. 

What I will admit is that for round 1 we need to at least pick the right players to match up against the Saints and to play well at Etihad.

[Adam The God 30,120]

4 hours ago, billy2803 said:

We hope ours is.  Just like every other club in the AFL.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I think we have something very special, but I'm sure most supporters of all clubs still have belief in their list.  I have a couple of Richmond and Carlton associates and even they think they can win the flag this year!

I meant more that we actually had access to top end talent. Their picks were often not in the top 5. We've had so many top 5 picks, they're coming out of our ears. And we all know that the top 5 is where the cream usually sits, not always, but usually.

Edited February 9, 2017 by A F

[monoccular 17,413]

FCS just beat them into pulp round 1

Long long overdue.   

[dazzledavey36 54,236]

I rate the Saints list especially their forward line. Reiwoldt, McCartin, Membrey, Bruce with smaller players like Gresham, Billings and Lonie crumbing is something teams will need to be very aware of.

[praha 11,232]

We're pretty different teams. They can beat us 100 times in a row. Come finals time we'll destroy them.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

11 hours ago, The Chief said:

Not sure where this myth about the age of St.Kilda's list comes from.

At the end of the 2017 season they will only have 3 players aged over 30 on their list - Riewoldt, Gilbert and Montagna. Riewoldt has stated he has no plans to retire over next few years and his form last year supports this.  Losing Montagna and Gilbert at the end of this season shouldn't cause them much pain. They currently have 2 first round picks in the 2017 draft, so if they aren't already close to where Melbourne's list development is at now, they will close the gap further after this year's draft. 

Agree. I seem to recall Roos saying as much in a press conference last year (i.e. their list and their development is at a very similar stage as ours).

Both clubs are on the way up. I don't mind the Saints - they don't get under my skin like virtually all other clubs do.

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,762]

The reason for the hype is that they're building a ripper list that will be top 4 as early this year.

If they can overcome their interstate hoodoo and go 3-3, they will finish top 4. Unlike the Dees, they actually use their home-ground to advantage winning 9 of their last 12 at Etihad, meanwhile we can't even beat rubbish sides like Carlton and Essendon on our home turf. To add insult, the Saints won 3 from 3 at the G.

Unlike us, they can actually beat the sides below them when they're heavy favourites. We on the other hand lose to sides that either have 11 of their best players suspended or face a team on an 11 game losing steak that had packed up for the year.

As much I don't like it, they will play finals before us I fear.

 

 

 

[Lord Travis 10,696]

The hype for them is real. They missed Finals in 2016 only by %. They came within a few points of beating numerous top 4 teams and were unlucky not to have won some of those games due to poor umpiring. They have good young talent, aren't too reliant on older players anymore, and have a really strong forward line in the making. I think they'll be top 8 this year, possibly around 6th. I'm guessing/hoping we can squeeze into the bottom of the 8 this year and make the leap to top 4 next year.

Until we can beat them, and consistently beat other teams below us (eg. Essendon, Carlton this year) then they deserve more expectation and hype than us. I think we'll surpass them in a year or two and have a better shot at a flag, but they're a better team than us based on form at the moment.

[Pates 9,659]

7 hours ago, monoccular said:

FCS just beat them into pulp round 1

Long long overdue.   

We do that, we make finals. I know that seems a pretty outlandish statement but the confidence gain by dispelling the hold they have over us and at Etihad no less it will give us huge momentum for the early rounds which are so important.

It would be a bit ironic if we did finally beat them now when we we're actually more on level pegging with them than we have been for a long time.

As for any hype around the Saints I would say it would be as justified as any hype around us. Both are very much based in potential, it'll be interesting to see which side takes that potential to the next level (something we have suffered with for a very long time).

[Uncle Fester 2,848]

Hype is irrelevant. You do or you don't, and all the newspapers hacks and mug punters won't change any of that. 40 people on both lists, with similar ceilings, and what will separate the men from the goats is if they go out and do, or if they believe all they have to do is show up.

Which one of us believes and which one of us expects?

Or maybe both are the first, or both are the latter...

September will tell, not the musings here or any other place.

 

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Oath ^