MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 19

[Demonland 66,839]

COLD, COLD, COLD by The Oracle

I expect this week's game against the Gold Coast Suns to deliver final proof on the theory that the young Melbourne team is tiring badly as the season wears on. 

Earlier in the year, the Demons completely emasculated the Suns in the last half of their game at Metricon Stadium booting nine goals in the third term and seven in the last amassing a total of over 100 points in an outstanding performance albeit against an undermanned opponent.

Melbourne's recent final quarter performances have been in stark contrast to that balmy evening on the Gold Coast when the Dees were hot, hot, hot. Since beating Collingwood in the Queens Birthday match things have cooled down considerably and those last quarter goals have dried up for the Demons.

This is this sequence of goal tallies over the last five games:-

... 1,1,1,2,0

And this sorry state of affairs can't be put down simply to lack of opportunity because, as the inside 50 statistics showed last week, the team had plenty of opportunities - they simply could not finish off the good work of Max Gawn, Nathan Jones and Jack Viney. The fact that Jesse Hogan and Jack Watts were both kept goalless in a game for the first time this year scoring a mere four points between them was telling. The result would have been different had they each been able to parlay one point into a goal but then if your grandmother had ...

This week's opponent is hobbled with a star studded list of midfield outs including Ablett, Hall, Prestia, Rischitelli, Swallow and most likely O'Meara who hasn't played since 2014. No matter how young and inexperienced the Demons might be or how tired those players are as we enter the twilight of the season for teams out of the running for finals berths, defeat at home on the MCG is simply unacceptable.

Melbourne has proven itself incapable of winning those "must win" games but it really must not lose this one.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns at the MCG Sunday 31 July, 2016 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall - Melbourne 5 wins Gold Coast Suns 3 wins 

At MCG - Melbourne 3 wins Gold Coast Suns 2 wins 

Past five matches - Melbourne 2 wins Gold Coast Suns 3 wins

The Coaches -  Roos 2 wins Eade 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel Live at 1.00pm 

RADIO - SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win - $1.19 Gold Coast Suns to win - $4.75

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 24.16.160 defeated Gold Coast Suns 14.3.87 at Metricon Stadium Round 7, 2016

The first half was close but after that the Demons demolished the hapless Suns scoring 16.9 to 6.1 in the second half. Max Gawn led the charge with 46 hit outs.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Josh Wagner, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Matt Jones
C: Christian Petracca, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson
HF: Jeff Garlett, Jack Watts, Sam Frost
F: Chris Dawes, Jesse Hogan, Dean Kent
FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C: Angus Brayshaw, James Harmes, Billy Stretch, Aaron vandenBerg
EMG: Tomas Bugg, Colin Garland, Alex Neal-Bullen

IN: Tomas Bugg, Colin Garland, Aaron vandenBerg

OUT: Alex Neal-Bullen (omitted)

GOLD COAST

B: Nick Malceski, Steven May, Kade Kolodjashnij 
HB: Jarrod Harbrow, Rory Thompson, Alex Sexton 
C: Joshua Schoenfeld, Jesse Lonergan,  Matt Shaw 
HF: Brandon Matera,  Tom Lynch, Jarrad Grant 
F:  Sam Day, Peter Wright, Ryan Davis 
FOLL: Tom Nicholls, Jack Martin,   Touk Miller 
I/C (from) Callum Ah Chee, Jarrod Garlett, Jesse Joyce, Matt Rosa
EMG: Sean Lemmens, Trent McKenzie, Seb Tape

IN: Matt Rosa

OUT: Seb Tape (omitted)

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

This is this sequence of final quarter goal tallies over the last five games:-

... 1,1,1,2,0

Pretty damning stat......easy to see then when you look at it like that....

Edited July 27, 2016 by Wadda We Sing

[Coq au vin 754]

Viney missed an easy set shot earlier in the game too.

[Dockett 32 1,213]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

This is this sequence of final quarter goal tallies over the last five games:-

... 1,1,1,2,0

Pretty damning stat......easy to see then when you look at it like that....

Interesting. The good sides have blokes like Franklin, Rioli, Dangerfield ,Selwood and co. who just take matters into their own hands and  get the job done in certain circumstances and it stamps  them from the rest. Carey and a few others  used to do it too.

After many years without such personnel, hoping that instead of lowering his head, Hogan just does what's required to get to this happening, knocks them out of the way, belts them ,whatever, Petracca as well and I'll throw in Oliver and Viney too. I think these now are the people to carry us forward. These four have the talent to do things a bit differently for us , learn to hate defeat and without any data too support this notion, I still reckon  it will start happening before too long. 

[praha 10,552]

We should run away with a 8-9 goal win never coming out of second gear.

Edited July 28, 2016 by praha

[Binmans PA 26,664]

What have they learnt from the Essendon game? Overwhelming favourites. A depleted opposition. The game being played on our home deck. We should win by 10 goals. This will be an interesting game.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

1 hour ago, praha said:

We should run away with a 8-9 goal win never coming out of second gear.

I'd prefer a one point win with us having to get into fifth gear to get it.

[poita 3,735]

On paper we should win this easily, but it all depends on which Melbourne turns up.

We score over 21 points a game (71) less with Dawes in the team than without him (92) , and over 31 points a game (102) less than with Pedersen in the team. We have to get our forward line setup right this week, and in my mind that means no Dawes.

 

[SPC 3,017]

23 minutes ago, poita said:

On paper we should win this easily, but it all depends on which Melbourne turns up.

We score over 21 points a game (71) less with Dawes in the team than without him (92) , and over 31 points a game (102) less than with Pedersen in the team. We have to get our forward line setup right this week, and in my mind that means no Dawes.

 

Not sure on the stats, but any suggestion that Dawes comes out of the side, is music to my ears!!!

[hemingway 7,608]

8 minutes ago, SPC said:

Not sure on the stats, but any suggestion that Dawes comes out of the side, is music to my ears!!!

i think we need to move on from Dawes and move with Pedersen or look to 2017 by blooding one of the youngsters.

[The Sailing Demon 379]

OUT - C. Dawes.
IN - L. Hulett.

Obviously we should win this, but hey, the Demons are the masters of the reverse Houdini.

I am expecting a big game from Watts and Hogan this week hopefully a bit frustrated at themselves for not standing up like we want them to (Nobody is perfect)
I just don't like the team with Dawes in it, he is not a part of our future, has not played enough games this year to play our game style and I don't feel offers anything extra to the squad.
Wouldn't mind seeing Oliver, Kennedy, or Bugg in, and we can drop Harmes for one of them I would assume (Looks a little flat recently, probably needs a spell)

I will be avidly pressing refresh on this slow internet at sea intently and it would make my day to see another big win.



 

[SPC 3,017]

39 minutes ago, The Sailing Demon said:

OUT - C. Dawes.
IN - L. Hulett.

Obviously we should win this, but hey, the Demons are the masters of the reverse Houdini.

I am expecting a big game from Watts and Hogan this week hopefully a bit frustrated at themselves for not standing up like we want them to (Nobody is perfect)
I just don't like the team with Dawes in it, he is not a part of our future, has not played enough games this year to play our game style and I don't feel offers anything extra to the squad.
Wouldn't mind seeing Oliver, Kennedy, or Bugg in, and we can drop Harmes for one of them I would assume (Looks a little flat recently, probably needs a spell)

I will be avidly pressing refresh on this slow internet at sea intently and it would make my day to see another big win.



 

Perfect game for a debut player.. 

[The Sailing Demon 379]

17 minutes ago, SPC said:

Perfect game for a debut player.. 

I hope you aren't pulling the [censored] outta me haha, I would say out of every game for the remainder of this season it would be.

[Cards13 9,117]

1 hour ago, The Sailing Demon said:

OUT - C. Dawes.
IN - L. Hulett.

Obviously we should win this, but hey, the Demons are the masters of the reverse Houdini.
 

Worse than the reverse kanga, disgusting MFC bloody stop it!

[beelzebub 22,706]

5 hours ago, praha said:

We should run away with a 8-9 goal win never coming out of second gear.

Should ...!!!

but will we ?? 

[Radar Detector 1,339]

We have actually had very predictable results this year IMO.

1. We generally beat teams 11th or below on the ladder

2. We generally lose against teams 10th or above on the ladder

3. We struggle in fast conditions against fast opposition (Ess, StK, Bulldogs) that exploit us on the outside and out the back

I'm confident the trends will continue as I can't see how GC will win enough contested ball to supply their forwards with enough opportunities to kick a winning score. Lynch, Day and 2m Peter would need to have a field day for them to win.

Edited July 28, 2016 by Radar Detector

[stuie 7,374]

3 hours ago, The Sailing Demon said:

OUT - C. Dawes.
IN - L. Hulett.
 

Didn't catch last week's game mate?

 

[What 18,810]

This is a danger game.  We lose this and the season is a total failure and we may not get off 7 wins.

[M_9 1,823]

5 hours ago, The Sailing Demon said:

OUT - C. Dawes.
IN - L. Hulett.

....

 

Well that won't happen:

a) Dawes is a favourite of Roos
b) he acts structure to the forward line
c) he did enough IMO last week to hold his spot

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 4,274]

5 minutes ago, M_9 said:

Well that won't happen:

a) Dawes is a favourite of Roos
b) he acts structure to the forward line
c) he did enough IMO last week to hold his spot

(Sorry M_9; gotta get in first:)

... as opposed to providing the real thing?

 

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,150]

IN Bugg, VDB , Garland...no OUTS

[What 18,810]

Chris Dawes still in the side.....  dear lord.

[DeeZee 6,905]

Not sure about those ins.

Vandenberg has zero form and I'd have Kennedy ahead of Bugg any day , especially after his stellar performance for Casey last week.

Dont mind giving Col another go or Dunn

[dazzledavey36 49,739]

How Vandenberg gets a gig on top of ordinary form this year just proves how laughable the selection panel has been this year.

[DeeZee 6,905]

What does it say to guys like Grimes and Trengove when Vandenberg just gets a spot handed to him on a silver platter.