THE BASEMENT by The Oracle

 

The AFL has been rather kind to Melbourne when it's come to fixturing games against Sydney over the past five years when the Swans have been powerhouses of the competition and the Demons have been inhabiting its basement. 

 

It seems that the Demons aren't really welcome in the Harbour City because the last time these two sides met each other in Sydney was their Round 8 encounter at the SCG in 2012. The result of that game was a disaster for the Dees with the only memorable aspect being a speccie from Jeremy Howe that earned him the AFL Mark of the Year award. That was the only thing that the club could take out of the occasion of its last trip up to play in Sydney against the Swans because the result was a 100-point slaughter. It's hard to relive the agony of the game now, especially given that the player who provided us with its only highlight has since defected to Collingwood in search of greater glory and the reward of a premiership but in view of the fact that his mark has been recorded for posterity, here it is -

 

 

Since that fateful day more than four years ago, the teams have met only once a year courtesy of a generous AFL which has done its best to shield Melbourne from the likelihood of further disasters. Nevertheless, those once a year encounters at the MCG have all ended in similar results - resounding wins for the Swans that have been virtual no contests but at least we've been spared the 100-point blowouts.

 

Things are a little different as we pass the halfway mark of the season. The Swans have deftly maintained their position among the top sides and have managed to reinvigorate a playing list that was starting to show signs of aging through a combination of good recruiting and excellent coaching and player development, helped to some extent by the Academy programme which is producing some ready-made young guns. 

 

Melbourne, on the other hand, is just emerging from the basement and under former Swans coach Paul Roos, is trying to head into the space that Sydney has been filling with a degree of success over the past decade or so. The team is young but definitely on its way up but we've learned in recent times to temper our expectations. Form can be up and down from one week to the next - young sides can be unpredictable.

 

That is what makes this week's contest so intriguing. Even the Swans themselves have struggled for consistency. They started the 2016 season with a crushing victory over Collingwood in Round 1 and had a good run early but struggled to win against Brisbane and lost to Richmond, picked up some big scalps in Hawthorn and North Melbourne but disappointed last week against the Giants in a game where they suffered a huge injury toll with their notable loss being ruckman Kurt Tippet to a hamstring injury.

 

In terms of match ups, the loss of Tippet when coming up against an in form Max Gawn is a factor that certainly tips the needle in Melbourne's direction because his likely replacement, Callum Sinclair, though handy has never been more than a second string ruckman. The Swans however, still have the advantage of strength and experience in the midfield over the Demons' emerging midfield group. The battle of the onballers will be an intriguing encounter and if Melbourne is to cause an upset against the Swans it will have to be through another dominant performance from Gawn and more of the same from the likes of Nathan Jones, Jack Viney, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson and the younger guns.

 

Then there is the competition's best player when at the top of his game, Lance Franklin, who was quiet last week but is rarely so for two weeks on end. His likely opponent is Tom McDonald who is quite capable of doing enough to quell Buddy's influence to some extent. If he succeeds in keeping him down to a couple of goals, it will have a big bearing on the result.  

 

And if the result swings the game in Melbourne's favour, then we can say that the club is truly out of the basement because it's been a while since the Demons have been in positive territory in terms of wins and losses this deep into a season.

 

THE GAME Melbourne v Sydney Swans at the SCG Sunday 19 June 2016 at 1.10pm

 

HEAD TO HEAD

 

Overall Sydney Swans 110 wins Melbourne 92 wins 2 drawn

 

At SCG Sydney Swans 13 wins Melbourne 8 wins

 

Last 5 meetings Sydney Swans 4 wins Melbourne 0 wins 1 drawn

 

The Coaches Longmire 2 wins Roos 0 wins

 

MEDIA

 

TV -   Fox Footy Channel Live at 1.00pm

 

RADIO - Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

 

THE BETTING

 

Sydney Swans $1.18 to win Melbourne $4.85 to win

 

THE LAST TIME THEY MET Sydney Swans 12.16.88 defeated Melbourne 7.8.50 in Round 6, 2015 at the MCG

 

The Swans led a dull and for the most part low scoring scrap of a game from start to finish, outplaying the hapless Demons in almost every position on the ground.

  

THE TEAMS

SYDNEY SWANS

B: Jeremy Laidler, Heath Grundy, Nick Smjith

HB: Jarrad McVeigh, Dane Rampe, Zak Jones

C: Callum Mills, John P Kennedy, Isaac Heeney

HF: Dan Hannebery, Lance Franklin, James Rose

F:  Luke Parker, Gary Rohan, Ben McGlynn

FOLL: Callum Sinclair, Tom Mitchell, Kieren Jack

I/C: Aliir Aliir, George Hewett, Toby Nankervis, Dean Towers

EMG: Tyrone Leonardis, Jake Lloyd, Sam Naismith,

IN: Allir Allir, George Hewett, Toby Nankervis, Dean Towers

OUT: Harry Cunningham (omitted), Jeremy Laidler (knee), Harrison Marsh (hamstring), Kurt Tippet (hamstring)

 

MELBOURNE

B: Tomas Bugg, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

HB: Billy Stretch, Oscar McDonald, Josh Wagner

C: Jack Viney, Christian Petracca, Bernie Vince

HF: Dean Kent, Jack Watts, Aaron vandenBerg

F: Sam Frost, Jesse Hogan, Chris Dawes

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Jayden Hunt, Ben Kennedy, Clayton Oliver, Jack Trengove

EMG: Jack Grimes, James Harmes, Viv Michie

NO CHANGE

Wouldn't mind seeing Frost get first crack it Buddy.  Strong, Tall and fast, physically a good match up.  Smarts/experience the obvious weaknesses.  Also frees up TMAc to play more 2nd man up.

Got a feeling Grimes will come in for someone, as they rested him for the last quarter at Casey,not sure who yet, they may rest one of the youngsters.

6 day break, pizzing with rain (have seen anywhere between 20mm and 40mm forecast)...they will make changes. Younger players out harder and fresher bodies in.

Can see grimes getting a game, ANB and maybe even MJones....

3 hours ago, hells bells said:

Wouldn't mind seeing Frost get first crack it Buddy.  Strong, Tall and fast, physically a good match up.  Smarts/experience the obvious weaknesses.  Also frees up TMAc to play more 2nd man up.

Tom must go on to Buddy.  He has matched up well with him in the past, so I hope he continues that this weekend.

Could be a risk starting Frosty on him.  If Franklin gets up and about early, he's bloody hard to stop for the rest of the game.

In. grimes, Michie, Harmes

No outs as yet

Doubt we go unchanged

Surprised there's no Matt Jones....

5 minutes ago, DemonLad5 said:

Doubt we go unchanged

Agreed, reckon Grimes finally gets his chance! Not sure who comes out though, Stretch rested maybe?

Harry Cunningham is omitted, happy with that he can go Allright on his day!  

 

edit.... Can't be Stretch as he is in 22... Maybe Trenners being monitored??

12 minutes ago, Hell Bent said:

In. grimes, Michie, Harmes

No outs as yet

I think Grimes will come in as a big body. Especially with the amount of rain predicted.  I also think Viv is a chance.  Hunt comes out for mine just based in the conditions

No 'Outs' at this point. More than likely no change.

Three tickets arrived last night and it's going to be pouring down rain on Sunday.

 

Get stuffed...rain will not be a deterrent.

Considering the weather

Out : Oscar

In : Harmes

I reckon Grimes is a definite in. Paced him in the wet for Casey last week so he'd be fresh for the trip to Sydney.

17 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Three tickets arrived last night and it's going to be pouring down rain on Sunday.

 

Get stuffed...rain will not be a deterrent.

Considering the weather

Out : Oscar

In : Harmes

Oscar won't go out, he is named in the 18. Changes will come from the bench. 

25 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Three tickets arrived last night and it's going to be pouring down rain on Sunday.

 

Get stuffed...rain will not be a deterrent.

Considering the weather

Out : Oscar

In : Harmes

A key back for a small forward???? 

23 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Oscar won't go out, he is named in the 18. Changes will come from the bench. 

Hear this a bit- is that a rule I'm unaware of or is it just 'the way it seems to go'?

21 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

Oscar won't go out, he is named in the 18. Changes will come from the bench. 

Yeah you're right, was just looking at that. Two weeks ago we got smashed with storms, now whilst it won't be that bad again they are predicting quite a bit of rain so I would've thought we have one tall too many. Tippet is out, and they have an array of dangerous mid size players. As you know i haven't been a huge fan of Grimes over the years but on Sunday the stage is set for him to come in, all jokes aside I think there will be some ordinary skills on display at times from a raft of players due to the weather. I didn't name him earlier because I think the footy department has rightly or wrongly moved on from him. We are a chance on Sunday, people talk a lot about wet weather players, I lean more towards smart players. A few backs watching GC v Sydney, I said to myself numerous times why isn't there 2 smalls around the pack when the ball is bombed inside 50, one front and centre and one goal side over the back where the ball more often than not bounces through for a behind after key forwards fail to mark it.

We usually play well in the wet, when the team is chosen well.

Might be a tad controversial, but I think Dawes might come out for another mid.

48 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Three tickets arrived last night and it's going to be pouring down rain on Sunday.

 

Get stuffed...rain will not be a deterrent.

Considering the weather

Out : Oscar

In : Harmes

Have a great day! You'll hear me cheering from back here, BA...

Just now, jumbo returns said:

We usually play well in the wet, when the team is chosen well.

Might be a tad controversial, but I think Dawes might come out for another mid.

We are definitely too tall on paper. If the weather prediction is right Dawes and Oscar should both come out.

5 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

We are definitely too tall on paper. If the weather prediction is right Dawes and Oscar should both come out.

Hmmmm....not sure about Oscar. Was very composed on Monday and did many good things....

6 hours ago, jnrmac said:

6 day break, pizzing with rain (have seen anywhere between 20mm and 40mm forecast)...they will make changes. Younger players out harder and fresher bodies in.

Can see grimes getting a game, ANB and maybe even MJones....

ANB and M Jones are not named in the 25

 

I would have dropped Stretch for Grimes

Do we have any genuine mud runners, those who excel in wet, slippery or muddy conditions? 

Buddy will be the big match up, he's been doing some ominous things this year and has killed a couple of teams. The short SCG ground could suit our game style, but I think ultimately we will fall short this week. Experience told against the Hawks and I think it could be the same this week.

I'm picturing a competitive game and the swans coming out on top by about 15-25pts. But then these are the sort of games that can change a team from being fringe to genuine finals contenders.