MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 11

[old dee 24,001]

31 minutes ago, poita said:

Well, it is a much better balanced side than previous weeks, but the personnel is as ordinary as ever. Roos' love for Dawes is difficult to fathom, Frost and McDonald are unproven, Vandenberg has no form or match fitness, and both Kent and Harmes are extremely lucky to retain their spots.

I'd love to know if Roos has flat out told Grimes (and Terlich for that matter) that he won't be selected this year, or if he is just stringing him out with lame excuses. How Newton, Vandenberg and Michie have jumped Grimes in the queue is baffling. I can't wait until Lumumba comes straight back into the senior team after 8 weeks with no time at Casey as well.

True and correct poita not much I can add.

[Goodvibes 3,596]

9 minutes ago, old dee said:

It is very early in the day to be drinking gv.

The only thing that has shaken my confidence, is you jumping off the bandwagon. You've been a beacon of hope the last few months.

[McQueen 17,867]

2 hours ago, Copuchas said:

Omac staying in the team astounds me....and it would astound Pedersen, Dunn and Grimes too......  

I can't understand the astonishment that surrounds Omac getting a string of games at AFL level. Dunn is obviously stronger and has a great deal more experience but he's on his last couple of years in the system. The same goes for Pedo, Grimes and possibly Garland the way he's tracking this season.

The coaching staff can see the potential in Oscar, mostly on the training track and enough in the VFL to suggest that they're confident he can turn into a competent AFL standard player. What's the point of letting him become a dominant VFL level player when we've clearly got a deficiency in the backline and a dire need to blood some youngsters given the age of the aforementioned group of players.

We are already vastly improved on last year and we are going to a better team again next year.

If we don't get games into Oscar now, we're going to be caught behind his development trajectory and suffer next season. 

We seem to be hedging our bets on landing Hurley or another key back.

What happens if that doesn't eventuate?

[old dee 24,001]

22 minutes ago, Goodvibes said:

The only thing that has shaken my confidence, is you jumping off the bandwagon. You've been a beacon of hope the last few months.

I am not off  I never factored in this match as a win and the team we have picked gives me no confidence in the defence.

The Hawks will IMO eat that defence by half time and like last week it will be a shambles in the last quarter.

To win we will need the forward line to have a day out and goal from every real chance.

[Nasher 33,617]

4 minutes ago, old dee said:

To win we will need the forward line to have a day out and goal from every real chance.

I reckon last week, missed goals were a huge factor in the limp performance we put in for periods.  Even on TV I could see the energy get sucked out of them every time someone missed a goal that should have gone through. It certainly sucked the energy out of me.

[Skuit 10,031]

6 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I can't understand the astonishment that surrounds Omac getting a string of games at AFL level. Dunn is obviously stronger and has a great deal more experience but he's on his last couple of years in the system. The same goes for Pedo, Grimes and possibly Garland the way he's tracking this season.

The coaching staff can see the potential in Oscar, mostly on the training track and enough in the VFL to suggest that they're confident he can turn into a competent AFL standard player. What's the point of letting him become a dominant VFL level player when we've clearly got a deficiency in the backline and a dire need to blood some youngsters given the age of the aforementioned group of players.

We are already vastly improved on last year and we are going to a better team again next year.

If we don't get games into Oscar now, we're going to be caught behind his development trajectory and suffer next season. 

We seem to be hedging our bets on landing Hurley or another key back.

What happens if that doesn't eventuate?

For me it's not a matter of getting games into the kids - we're doing that - but getting games into them all at once when the cupboards aren't completely bare. While in ways it's a good thing to get a young unit working together, Wagner is now almost senior member of the defense with 8 games to his name in front of Hunt (7), Omac (2) and Frost (0 in defence). That's four primary defenders with 17 games to their names vs. the likes of smart, crafty and experienced footballers in Rioli (166), Breust (126), Puopolo (121) and Gunston (115). Sicily himself almost has as many games to his name as those four combined. It's not the sort of transition you would expect when blooding young players.   

[Cards13 9,117]

2 minutes ago, Skuit said:

For me it's not a matter of getting games into the kids - we're doing that - but getting games into them all at once when the cupboards aren't completely bare. While in ways it's a good thing to get a young unit working together, Wagner is now almost senior member of the defense with 8 games to his name in front of Hunt (7), Omac (2) and Frost (0 in defence). That's four primary defenders with 17 games to their names vs. the likes of smart, crafty and experienced footballers in Rioli (166), Breust (126), Puopolo (121) and Gunston (115). Sicily himself almost has as many games to his name as those four combined. It's not the sort of transition you would expect when blooding young players.   

While some think we a re chance for the 8 we are clearly in another transitional year, as you note the games of the defence clear illustrates this. Blooding more "kids" this year for us to be ready to fly next year in Goody's first year. Well that is the hope. Roos is sacrificing this year for the betterment of the team long term. (can't wait for the responses to that last line.)

[stuie 7,374]

29 minutes ago, McQueen said:

I can't understand the astonishment that surrounds Omac getting a string of games at AFL level.

To me it just seems to go against the usual pattern of development we've brought in with young players generally learning at VFL level rather than AFL level. No one thinks there isn't potential there, but we're not gifting games based on potential anymore, so just seems a little strange that players like Michie, ANB, Dunn, Newton etc get very little chance if they underperform while OMac, Harmes, Hunt and Wagner who are all young players that weren't high picks are allowed a few off ones.

Roos' whole philosophy is around competition for spots and earning games isn't it? Just feels like that has been watered down somewhat this year and we're starting to go back to giving games based on "potential" rather than performance.

 

Edited June 3, 2016 by stuie

[Skuit 10,031]

15 minutes ago, Cards13 said:

While some think we a re chance for the 8 we are clearly in another transitional year, as you note the games of the defence clear illustrates this. Blooding more "kids" this year for us to be ready to fly next year in Goody's first year. Well that is the hope. Roos is sacrificing this year for the betterment of the team long term. (can't wait for the responses to that last line.)

I'd argue that Wagner performing in a team that took it up to Hawthorn would be better for his long-term development than getting one extra flogging under his belt alongside Frost. We've been here before. 

[Generation dee 1,336]

15 hours ago, Choko said:

Even for you. that was a stupid comment.  If Rawlings was average. Clarkson was a spud. Ross Lyon too, Sheedy, and many others.  Paul Roos picks him - but what would he know.

 

Put him on ignore my man! Trust me, will make threads so much more enjoyable! 

[McQueen 17,867]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

To me it just seems to go against the usual pattern of development we've brought in with young players generally learning at VFL level rather than AFL level. No one thinks there isn't potential there, but we're not gifting games based on potential anymore, so just seems a little strange that players like Michie, ANB, Dunn, Newton etc get very little chance if they underperform while OMac, Harmes, Hunt and Wagner who are all young players that weren't high picks are allowed a few off ones.

Roos' whole philosophy is around competition for spots and earning games isn't it? Just feels like that has been watered down somewhat this year and we're starting to go back to giving games based on "potential" rather than performance.

 

In my experience, there's moments in all sorts of circumstances of strategy and culture development that need to be either tweaked or entirely shitcanned.

We've moved into another phase of team development and I for one am confident the FD will be managing the evolution of our defensive game plan with the right players in mind.

I'd love to play in finals this year but we all know it's unlikely.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Has anyone on this forum done an AFL review of a game?

Has anyone on this forum done a review of an individual player's game at AFL level?

Even if you have, you do not know what the KPI's are for O'Mac.

We may think that O'Mac had a bad game, but he may have hit every goal that the FD set out for him to achieve.

And while he keeps doing that he will not be dropped.

People need to stop thinking that they know more about the inside of the club than the actual people running it.

 

Edited June 3, 2016 by AzzKikA

[jackaub 1,402]

3 minutes ago, AzzKikA said:

Has anyone on this forum done an AFL review of a game?

Has anyone on this forum done a review of an individual player's game at AFL level?

Even if you have, you do not know what the KPI's are for O'Mac.

We may think that O'Mac had a bad game, but he may have hit every goal that the FD set out for him to achieve.

And while he keeps doing that he will not be dropped.

 

Well just    WOW!!

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Just now, jackaub said:

Well just    WOW!!

What does that mean?

 

[jackaub 1,402]

So KPI's

Fumbling  ahhhhh     plenty     Tick

Running around ineffectively  Yes     Tick

Misssing tackles         Definitely     Tick

No where near his man     more than occasionally    Tick

Slow to react     Yes Yes      Tick

[old dee 24,001]

6 minutes ago, AzzKikA said:

Has anyone on this forum done an AFL review of a game?

Has anyone on this forum done a review of an individual player's game at AFL level?

Even if you have, you do not know what the KPI's are for O'Mac.

We may think that O'Mac had a bad game, but he may have hit every goal that the FD set out for him to achieve.

And while he keeps doing that he will not be dropped.

People need to stop thinking that they know more about the inside of the club than the actual people running it.

 

But they lost badly AzzKikA

Seems they don't know as much as you suggest

OR some players are not good enough to carry out the plan.

[Gator 17,972]

16 hours ago, Choko said:

If Rawlings was average. Clarkson was a spud. Ross Lyon too, Sheedy, and many others.  Paul Roos picks him - but what would he know.

 

I understand the point you're making, but Ross Lyon and Sheedy were good players.  Not stars, but good.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

10 minutes ago, jackaub said:

So KPI's

Fumbling  ahhhhh     plenty     Tick

Running around ineffectively  Yes     Tick

Misssing tackles         Definitely     Tick

No where near his man     more than occasionally    Tick

Slow to react     Yes Yes      Tick

So Roo's told you they are his KPI's did he?

I know what you are saying but maybe they expect him to be fumbly and miss a tackle here and there as he is only 5 games into his career.  Maybe he was in the right spots all the time but his teammates left him to do all the work. Hell they could be throwing him in the deep end to see what he does, who knows?  Oh wait you do.

I never said i agree with it i'm just sick of people thinking they know the inner working of the FD, you don't, so stop pretending that you do.

 

8 minutes ago, old dee said:

But they lost badly AzzKikA

Seems they don't know as much as you suggest

OR some players are not good enough to carry out the plan.

Yeah the highlighted bit OD, yes he was poor but so was most of the team, you cannot expect a 5 game kid that isn't ready to be the leader of the back line trying to contain 2-3 players at once while your teammates watch, unless of course you are Weitering.

 

Edited June 3, 2016 by AzzKikA

[Gator 17,972]

2 hours ago, McQueen said:

I can't understand the astonishment that surrounds Omac getting a string of games at AFL level. Dunn is obviously stronger and has a great deal more experience but he's on his last couple of years in the system.

I understand the development angle, but when a player is so obviously out of his depth and weak in contests it raises questions as to whether selecting him is a hindrance more than a help. 

If you were selecting the team for a grand final being held tomorrow, who would you select, Dunn or O. McDonald ?  For me the answer is clear.

If it was a close decision I'd happily select the young developing player, but I don't see it that way.  Oscar looks a mile off.  For that reason I don't understand why Dunn or even Pedersen wasn't chosen.

Edited June 3, 2016 by ProDee

[AzzKikA 2,371]

5 minutes ago, ProDee said:

I understand the development angle, but when a player is so obviously out of his depth and weak in contests it raises questions as to whether selecting him is a hindrance more than help. 

If you were selecting the team for a grand final being held tomorrow, who would you select, Dunn or O. McDonald ?  For me the answer is clear.

If it was a close decision I'd happily select the young developing player, but I don't see it that way.  Oscar looks a mile off.  For that reason I don't understand why Dunn or even Pedersen wasn't chosen.

What if Omac is the one that was playing all year until that Grand Final?

Surely that constitutes being selected.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

3 minutes ago, AzzKikA said:

What if Omac is the one that was playing all year until that Grand Final?

Surely that constitutes being selected.

You've just completely shifted the goal posts.

At the moment, Oscar McDonald is playing like Tom Gilles, that's the point.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

Just now, Clint Bizkit said:

You've just completely shifted the goal posts.

At the moment, Oscar McDonald is playing like Tom Gilles, that's the point.

That's being kind, and it's not just him.

[Chris 2,892]

A few stats for those interested.

	MFC	HFC		Diff
Average Age	23.0	25.7		-2.7
Average Games	62.9	124.6		-61.7
Back Line
Ave Age	22.3	28.7		-6.3
Ave Games	44.8	182.7		-137.8
Fol (includes wing)
Ave Age	25.0	27.0		-2.0
Ave Games	103.7	153.0		-49.3
Fwd
Ave Age	23.2	24.3		-1.2
Ave Games	71.3	91.7		-20.3
Int
Ave Age	21.0	21.5		-0.5
Ave Games	17.8	44.5		-26.8
Melbourne
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	3	2	3	4	12
51-100	3	2	0	0	5
101-150	0	0	3	0	3
151-200	0	1	0	0	1
200+	0	1	0	0	1
					22
HFC
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	0	1	2	3	6
51-100	1	1	0	0	2
101-150	1	2	3	1	7
151-200	2	0	1	0	3
200+	2	2	0	0	4
					22
	MFC Back	HFC Fwd		Diff
Age	22.3	24.3		-2.0
Games	44.8	91.7		-46.8
	MFC Fwd	HFC Back
Age	23.2	28.7		-5.5
Games	71.3	182.7		-111.3

 

Even though we have added much needed experience to the lineup this week we still, as expected, go into this game with no where near the same age or experience in our team and the Hawks are going to put on the park. The respective forward lines and the benches are the only place we even come close to matching them and in those areas we are still at best a season behind. 

Lets all hope that in this case the saying is wrong and youth and exuberance can indeed overcome old age and treachery! 

[McQueen 17,867]

2 hours ago, ProDee said:

I understand the development angle, but when a player is so obviously out of his depth and weak in contests it raises questions as to whether selecting him is a hindrance more than a help. 

If you were selecting the team for a grand final being held tomorrow, who would you select, Dunn or O. McDonald ?  For me the answer is clear.

If it was a close decision I'd happily select the young developing player, but I don't see it that way.  Oscar looks a mile off.  For that reason I don't understand why Dunn or even Pedersen wasn't chosen.

Of course you'd choose Dunn I that scenario but it's not the case.

I don't disagree that he appears out of his depth and lacking strength in contests. My point is that the likes of Dunn and Garland have hardly set the world on fire this season. If anything, Garland can fall under the 'hindrance' category so far this season.

Measuring the pay-off of persisting with Omac as opposed to playing Dunn now is going to be something we can do next year.

In my opinion, the club will be better placed for next year by getting games into him now, as opposed to learning at VFL standard. Like I said earlier, this is mainly due to the dearth of decent young defenders on the list.

 

[praha 11,253]

6 hours ago, Nasher said:

Do you set the bar really low to avoid disappointment or something?

Yes.