MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 19

[Demonland 73,782]

INCONSISTENT BASTERDS by JVM

Melbourne and North Melbourne are two teams whose form during the 2015 season is regarded by all and sundry as extremely inconsistent. Their highs and their lows over the year so far have been well documented and fans of both clubs have been heard leaving some of their games muttering the words "inconsistent basterds" as an apt description of the cause of their frustrations.

On this basis, one might think it would be a difficult task to select the winner of this week's contest at the MCG and yet the Kangaroos are rightly firm favourites with the pundits to win the match up.

The favouritism no doubt stems from the fact that they seem to be finding some consistency at last with wins in their last four matches. But if you look at who they've beaten since their 55-point loss to the Gold Coast Suns on the day of Garry Ablett Junior's comeback game five weeks ago, a different story emerges. They have since beaten Geelong (at a time when the Cats were at their absolute poorest), Essendon, Brisbane and Carlton whilst enjoying the AFL's dream fixture and it's been a while since they've had to fight out a pressure game against one of the competition's power house clubs.

Of course, at this stage of the journey Melbourne fans can only dream about winning two games in a row (let alone four) and there's that little matter of North's 13-game winning streak that goes back all the way to late in 2006 when Nathan Jones' career was in its infancy that makes them such firm favourites. When you consider that young Demons like Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw, James Harmes and Alex Neal-Bullen were running around in the Under 11s and 10s when their club last prevailed over this week's opponent, it brings the enormity of the task into perspective.

And yet, I have this feeling that the time is ripe for Melbourne to overturn yet another long-running hoodoo. So far this year the club has smashed many of these, starting with the game over the Suns which marked its first opening round win in a decade. On the eve of Anzac Day, it beat Richmond to record its first Friday night win in a long time, Hogan kicked five goals against the Saints (albeit in a losing game) to end several years when the best an individual player had scored in a game was three and the wins against Geelong at Simonds Stadium and last week at Collingwood ended long droughts against those clubs. In the case of those latter victories, they were completely unexpected which is what one expects from inconsistent teams.

But if there has been one consistent thing about both clubs this year, it has been the form of their main ruckmen. Todd Goldstein has been great for the Kangaroos all year, is a certain All Australian and has been mentioned as a Brownlow chance. Max Gawn only grabbed the first ruck mantle at Melbourne after half a season at Casey but has been the stand out big man ever since and (pardon the pun) continues to grow in stature.

If Maxy can win his battle against Goldstein on Sunday he will consolidate a position among the top three or four ruckmen in the competition and go a long way to putting an end to his club's days as inconsistent basterds.

THE GAME Melbourne v North Melbourne on Sunday 9th August, 2015 at MCG at 1.10 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins North Melbourne 77 wins 1 draw

At MCG Melbourne 54 wins North Melbourne 35 wins

Last five times Melbourne 0 wins North Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 wins Scott 2 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel at 1.00pm (live)

RADIO - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $3.60 North Melbourne to win $1.29

LAST TIME THEY MET

North Melbourne 19.9.123 defeated Melbourne 14.9.93 at Etihad Stadium in Round 23, 2014

North rested some of their leading lights on the eve of the finals Melbourne the opportunity to stay in the game until the second half when the Roos took control and moved away to win by 5 goals. Nathan Jones and Dom Tyson were the best of the Demons.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jack Grimes, Dom Tyson, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Angus Brayshaw, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince

F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C (from): James Harmes, Matt Jones, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen

EMG: Mark Jamar, Ben Newton, Billy Stretch

IN: Matt Jones

OUT: Aaron vandenBerg (ankle)

NORTH MELBOURNE

B: Sam Wright, Robbie Tarrant, Lachlan Hansen

HB: Nick Dal Santo, Scott Thompson, Ben Jacobs

C: Shaun Higgins, Jack Ziebell, Shaun Atley

HF: Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Taylor Garner

F: Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite, Lindsay Thomas

FOLL: Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow

I/C: Sam Gibson, Luke McDonald, Aaron Mullett, Robin Nahas

EMG: Majak Daw, Kayne Turner, Max Warren

IN: Lachlan Hansen, Aaron Mullett, Robin Nahas

OUT: Ryan Bastinac (omitted), Michael Firrito (suspended), Kayne Turner (omitted)

The way things seem to be panning out in the run to the finals, this game is crucial to North's end of year prospects. A defeat in their clash with Melbourne could well prove a disaster for the Kangaroos whose last three games are against teams likely to contest the 2015 finals series.

I've already mentioned the ruck contests as being crucial to the outcome but they will also set the scene for an intriguing midfield battle. North has been solid and steady in this area for some time but has lacked brilliance during the long absence of Daniel Wells.

A little over twelve months ago this would have been a game decider in favour of North but Nathan Jones has now been joined by Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson and a couple of exciting strong tackling hard youngsters in Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw and will be no pushovers. With Jack Watts coming of age and a couple of forward targets like Chris Dawes and Jesse Hogan there is every chance that this game will produce an upset.

Melbourne by 10 points.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 17,059]

Following Melbourne must be a dream for philosophers who subscribe to logical fallacies. When Melbourne are the bookies' favourite, they do not win. When Melbourne is not favourite they (sometimes) win. Ergo, when Melbourne are not favourites they are more likely to be favoured to win. I reckon there's a PhD in this for someone.

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

this will be a hard game to win, as well as Gawn is going we will lose hitouts, We will lose contested & uncontested possession, our only chance is to do the 1% & pressure the ball carrier well, winning the inside 50 marks is a must if we are to have any chance.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

I think we are a tiny, miniscule, sneaky chance on the weekend. If we can keep their big fellas quiet and restrict Goldstein's influence then anything is possible.

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

Following Melbourne must be a dream for philosophers who subscribe to logical fallacies. When Melbourne are the bookies' favourite, they do not win. When Melbourne is not favourite they (sometimes) win. Ergo, when Melbourne are not favourites they are more likely to be favoured to win. I reckon there's a PhD in this for someone.

Or at least a koan.

[chook fowler 19,732]

Or at least a koan.

Joel or Ethan?

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

George M.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,289]

I think we are a tiny, miniscule, sneaky chance on the weekend. If we can keep their big fellas quiet and restrict Goldstein's influence then anything is possible.

Agreed. I know the website suggests no change but I reckon Spencer is a chance to come in. He would help Gawn out by going hard at Goldie and provides another tall for them to worry about.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

we are a massive chance

Pies 11 losses/draw in a row SMASHED in '15

Cats 12 losses/draw in a row SMASHED in '15

North 13 losses in a row...

Plus look at their results, they haven't done much this year

[The team we love 416]

In: Jamar, Newton, Jones

Three to be cut from the squad.

[chook fowler 19,732]

Bet we play Jamar to help Gawn counteract Goldstein.

[Spirit of 26 261]

In: Jamar, Newton, Jones

Three to be cut from the squad.

Out: Jamar, Newton, Jones

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Would like Newton to get a full game.

[Akum 2,660]

They are much better drilled and have much better system than us. Generally when we play better drilled teams, we get smashed.

But we could beat them one-on-one. They have a lot of vanilla mids, so nobody stands out to be tagged.

The brains trust need to put some thought into how to break up their system.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,289]

Bet we play Jamar to help Gawn counteract Goldstein.

Agreed chook. Thought it might be Spencer but I reckon this will happen. Out Mitchie, only change.

[Bang Bang Bang 5,850]

They are much better drilled and have much better system than us. Generally when we play better drilled teams, we get smashed.

But we could beat them one-on-one. They have a lot of vanilla mids, so nobody stands out to be tagged.

The brains trust need to put some thought into how to break up their system.

He might be approaching 40 years of age but Boomer [censored] Harvey always has a picnic when he plays against us. Send Viney to him.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,289]

He might be approaching 40 years of age but Boomer [censored] Harvey always has a picnic when he plays against us. Send Viney to him.

Yes. I love to see Viney bury that whingeing basterd's head below grass level -legally of course.

[Akum 2,660]

He might be approaching 40 years of age but Boomer [censored] Harvey always has a picnic when he plays against us. Send Viney to him.

Wouldn't that take Viney out of the game? We might be better off using Jetta or Grimes, seeing as he mainly plays as an opportunist flanker these days.

Love to see Viney wrap him up a la Mav Weller though.

[monoccular 17,695]

Surely Fitzy's non selection given his VFL form, and against this tall forward line means that the tunnelball effectively ended his MFC career.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Surely Fitzy's non selection given his VFL form, and against this tall forward line means that the tunnelball effectively ended his MFC career.

Well if that's the case that means there are one or two players in the seniors purely keeping the seat warm.

[Wunders 397]

Surely Fitzy's non selection given his VFL form, and against this tall forward line means that the tunnelball effectively ended his MFC career.

Yes it would appear to be likely than not. Or maybe it's that Roos is confident in our current back 6 and sees it as an advantage (our guys will be able to run off their talks etc).. Anyway see what happens on game day go dees!

[CHF 2,817]

Looked at the Casey team just now and it looks like one Jake Lovett is playing as 23rd man. Will be interesting to see how he goes.

[CHF 2,817]

Mono, I don't agree. I think it is just that there has not been a position for him to play in recent games. I have been watching a few of our games from this season back to back. an early season game and then a later season game. It is an interesting way to see the development throughout the season.

Last night I watched the bulldogs game and in that game Fitzy stood out as one of the impressive defencive unit. I would like to believe that he, along with all of the players are getting development coaching the whole time and the coaches would not put a line through anyone at this stage.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

Totally uninspiring changes... but that's a good thing. Aside from a few players missing we have a pretty strong team in at the moment and that means the players we need to bring in are not going to fill us with excitement.

I'll be interested to see if Roos bites the bullet and selects Jamar or sticks with the current formula.

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

Totally uninspiring changes... but that's a good thing. Aside from a few players missing we have a pretty strong team in at the moment and that means the players we need to bring in are not going to fill us with excitement.

I'll be interested to see if Roos bites the bullet and selects Jamar or sticks with the current formula.

the current formula will only see us competitive till about half way thru the 3rd