The difference between Picks 23 & 40

[Little Goffy 12,767]

We all know how this will play out.

One of the 17 players between 23 and 40 will turn out to be an A-grader, and some schmucks will declare that this means we blew our recruiting and we are all doomed.

The other 16 in the range could all be spuds, but that wont matter to the MFCSS machine.

[Biffen 12,422]

No News Day?

[Moonshadow 16,381]

Spilt milk. It's done. Get over it.

[Demonsone 1,640]

Too many people here wanting to find the next champion in the draft..... it's a lottery & it's only part of the process.. Great players are developed in a good club with good culture & coaches... Our record over the last decade is terrible in developing players!

Frost can be developed to be a kpp backman & has a couple of years in the system, the alternative is go to the draft & hope & wait 2-3 yrs...

[bing181 8,208]

If Jason Taylor finds a player at 40 or 53 and Frost makes it, it'll be a great trade.

[Whispering_Jack 28,084]

This website sets out the number of games played by each of the draft picks over the past three decades of drafting ~ https://www.draftguru.com.au/picks

Despite the fact that national draft pick 1 failures often come under the microscope, players picked first have averaged the most number of games - 140. The sequence goes like this:-

1 - 140

2 - 128

3 - 122

4 - 90

5 - 99

6 - 48

7 - 94

8 - 93

9 - 87

10 - 83

11 - 83

12 - 76

13 - 94

14 - 77

15 - 66

16 - 85

17 - 64

18 - 69

19 - 82

20 - 69

From there:

* the range 21 - 25 is between 39 and 66 games (the average for pick 23 which we gave away for Sam Frost was 45 games);

* the range 26 - 30 is between 42 and 74 games;

* the range 31 - 35 is between 26 and 58 games;

* the range 36 - 40 is between 45 and 78 (the average for pick 40 which was one of the picks we received for Sam Frost was 78 games);

* the range 41 - 45 is between 39 and 57 games;

* the range 46 - 50 is between 40 and 57 games;

* the range 51 - 55 is between 11 and 56 games (the average for pick 40 which was the other pick we received for Sam Frost was 46 games);

The numbers drop away after that with a few statistical aberrations for those more famous late picks in history such as James Hird (79).

The best average of the rookie draft picks is at the 50 mark with quite a few averaging in the 40's but the pick 1 average is 25.

Pre-Season Draft pick 1 averages 49 games and the best average is 18 with 83 (another statistical aberration?). You'll get plenty of 40s in the early part of the PSD.

What does this mean apart from the old story about damn lies and statistics?

If things fall our way, we have a reasonable chance of picking as good a player with 40 than we might have with 23 so if the club rates Frost highly then it was a fair decision to do the trade.

[Nasher 33,166]

It means you'd rather have pick 7 than pick 6, right?

[rhaz 342]

Pick 6 is cursed

[Whispering_Jack 28,084]

It means you'd rather have pick 7 than pick 6, right?

Yep ... and I'd rather have 2 & 3 than just 1.

[Moneider96 1,045]

Pick 6 is cursed

Ye, the average for pick 6 is interesting....

[Carlos Danger 380]

Pick 23 became Frost, pick 40 and pick 53.

Had we not made the Frost trade it would've been pick 23 and pick 83 (without Sam).

Kind of rich to imply some sort of error occurred here.

[Breggsy 123]

Not a huge difference apparently. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but lots of people who follow that stuff don't rate this year's youths. Stephen Well's would rather Rhys Stanley than the kids that he could potentially draft at 21.

[Moneider96 1,045]

Not a huge difference apparently. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but lots of people who follow that stuff don't rate this year's youths. Stephen Well's would rather Rhys Stanley than the kids that he could potentially draft at 21.

They rate the top 4 though...which we happen to have 2 picks in...

Edited October 22, 2014 by Moneider96

[DeeSpencer 23,417]

Not a huge difference apparently. I won't pretend to be a draft expert but lots of people who follow that stuff don't rate this year's youths. Stephen Well's would rather Rhys Stanley than the kids that he could potentially draft at 21.

Geelong have cleaned out a lot of senior list players.

Christensen, Varcoe, Stringer, Schroder, Hamling, Brown, Burbury whilst only bringing in Stanley and Clark so they are obviously going to have a number of picks in this draft. It's just they swapped 21 for 60 along with Stanley so I think Wells just prefers multiple late picks to find very good players instead of just the pressure of an early pick. That's somewhat inline with our downgrade for Frost.