Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 4

[jackaub 1,402]

We have a forward!!!

Now just to get him through the warm up...

I can Hear Chris Dawes Calf tightening as we speak!

[McQueen 17,864]

Ridiculously I feel as though Dawes getting through a full game is almost worth 4 points. We really need him to stay fit and get into some good form.

Need goals, Dawesy.

[Deespicable 2,567]

Rapt with the Blues omissions, although you still have to balance our chances against Carlton being fired up even more than normal because of bad loss and the likelihood of a wet MCG causing our switch style, possession game problems.

A few people think that wet weather give us a better chance because it reduces the quality of the game, but with our style this season, if it is wet, we have to switch to a long down-the-line game, which as was the case with Terlich's costly pass to Fitzy last week, can take a bit of adjustment. The Blues, by contrast, already play a bang it down the line game - Malthouse style - which is wet weather footy anyway.

But the outs have, at least on paper, given us a real show in my opinion.

Waite is always dangerous and would have given Tom Mc problems - assuming Frawley starts up forward again.

Tom Bell is known as baby Kouta and while he's a bit of a spazo at times, he's a really big body that would have been hard to budge.

Garlett is always dangerous for us and now means we only really have to worry about Yarran's explosiveness, although Lucas is pretty quick too.

To those of you who are worried about only one ruck in Spencer, it's very different to last week because the Blues back-ups - Rowe and Casboult - aren't massive.

That means Pedo, who will almost certainly line up on one of them, should be able to make a contest when Warnock and Spencil go off for a rest.

A few people have questioned whether Jordie should tag Murphy.

My view is really strong that it should be Robbo.

Robbo has been BOG the last two times we've played them and delights in hammering us to back up his smart-ar.. words.

He is also their litmus test - when he plays well the Blues generally play well.

Yes I understand he's nowhere near the class of Murphy or Gibbs or Thomas or Simpson, but Robbo is the man we need to stop most of all - winning the psycho battle is often what it is all about and if Jordie lays a few of his crunching tackles on him, then I know I'll be uplifted watching them and I reckon so will every player on our team.

[gsmith12 491]

No talls on the bench so the match committee must be confident that Dawes will see the game out.

[Deespicable 2,567]

No talls on the bench so the match committee must be confident that Dawes will see the game out.

Given the Blues have gone quite small and it's probably going to be wet, it is likely he will only have to last until three quarter-time and then be subbed out for either JKH or Kent.

Have a look at how many last quarter possessions Fitzy has had in three weeks if you are still thinking it is a bad move!

[ManDee 7,093]

Rapt with the Blues omissions, although you still have to balance our chances against Carlton being fired up even more than normal because of bad loss and the likelihood of a wet MCG causing our switch style, possession game problems.

A few people think that wet weather give us a better chance because it reduces the quality of the game, but with our style this season, if it is wet, we have to switch to a long down-the-line game, which as was the case with Terlich's costly pass to Fitzy last week, can take a bit of adjustment. The Blues, by contrast, already play a bang it down the line game - Malthouse style - which is wet weather footy anyway.

But the outs have, at least on paper, given us a real show in my opinion.

Waite is always dangerous and would have given Tom Mc problems - assuming Frawley starts up forward again.

Tom Bell is known as baby Kouta and while he's a bit of a spazo at times, he's a really big body that would have been hard to budge.

Garlett is always dangerous for us and now means we only really have to worry about Yarran's explosiveness, although Lucas is pretty quick too.

To those of you who are worried about only one ruck in Spencer, it's very different to last week because the Blues back-ups - Rowe and Casboult - aren't massive.

That means Pedo, who will almost certainly line up on one of them, should be able to make a contest when Warnock and Spencil go off for a rest.

A few people have questioned whether Jordie should tag Murphy.

My view is really strong that it should be Robbo.

Robbo has been BOG the last two times we've played them and delights in hammering us to back up his smart-ar.. words.

He is also their litmus test - when he plays well the Blues generally play well.

Yes I understand he's nowhere near the class of Murphy or Gibbs or Thomas or Simpson, but Robbo is the man we need to stop most of all - winning the psycho battle is often what it is all about and if Jordie lays a few of his crunching tackles on him, then I know I'll be uplifted watching them and I reckon so will every player on our team.

I hope Jordie lays some absolute ripper tackles on Robinson, a few bruises perhaps. The entire side should make a point of slam tackling Robinson.

[jackaub 1,402]

Jordie is a huge in in the wet and I'm tipping he will tackle his arse off to impress Roos

[What 18,810]

Jordie is a huge in in the wet and I'm tipping he will tackle his arse off to impress Roos

Jordie has always tackled his ass off no matter who the coach is

[Scipio 5,868]

Jordie has always tackled his ass off no matter who the coach is

True, can't fault his endeavour at all. His disposal is another story.

[samcantstandya 953]

You like Nicholson's disposal? You really are a sucker for punishment!

Wet weather footy, hard physical stuff, it really is a day for Watts to hang out on a wing and watch the minutes go past. I hope we see something different from him.

I can't believe anyone rates Nicholson's disposal skills either. Let's call a spade a spade he is very quick but is a crap kick. Funny how someone with poor foot skills can get a gig a an AFL side, if you are going to recruit players either pick guys who can kick and can read the play or TEACH them.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Ridiculously I feel as though Dawes getting through a full game is almost worth 4 points. We really need him to stay fit and get into some good form.

Need goals, Dawesy.

I am tipping he will get zero and it will be totally excused due to it being his first game back and wet conditions

[binman 39,096]

Before the season i had penciled this in as a must see game (ie live) with the kids. But as good guide to where we are at i'm now considering staying home, getting some work done around the house (and putting some much need brownie points in the near empty bank), watching the Sydney races on tele (great days racing hopefully not ruined by rain) and staying warm and nice and dry on the couch watching the delayed coverage from 3pm.

Oh and i'd save myself close to $80 bucks once all the bits and pieces are added up, not to mention saving myself some of the inevitable stress. Plus going might put a final nail in the coffin of my kids interest in the MFC.

Still i'm torn. Webber i fully acknowledge i'm delusional (by the by your area of expertise is the body not the mind is it not?) - but i can't shake the funny feeling we might win. I hate missing wins. Watching a win on TV is not even close to the experience of being there.

It's bloody exhausting barracking for the dees.

[ManDee 7,093]

True, can't fault his endeavour at all. His disposal is another story.

Funny that in Jordie's case disposal sounds appropriate to describe his kicks and handballs

Perhaps we should have a stat called delivery. Disposals being ineffective, delivery effective.

Or effective delivery or ineffective disposal but no total count unless we use possessions 38 made up of 20 effective 18 ineffective.

Just thinking out loud.

[gsmith12 491]

Given the Blues have gone quite small and it's probably going to be wet, it is likely he will only have to last until three quarter-time and then be subbed out for either JKH or Kent.

Have a look at how many last quarter possessions Fitzy has had in three weeks if you are still thinking it is a bad move!

A point well made however if we cop an injury early to a tall ?

[jumbo returns 6,547]

What odds Cripps will win the Rising Star nomination?

I so want Jack V to tear him a new one.....

[DeeZee 6,855]

They will probably plonk dawes deep and have frawley and dunn on half forward working towards the wing to give the midfielders amd backs something to kick to.

Hopefully have JKH play a full game at Dawesys feet.

Howe ,Georgiou , Mcdonald , and pederson will work well down back, especially without waite.

Cross amd Mckenzie to tag and frustrate the bejesus out of murphy and either robinson or gibbs.

[Ted Lasso 17,129]

What odds Cripps will win the Rising Star nomination?

I so want Jack V to tear him a new one.....

i'm tipping Billings to get this week against Adelaide

[Hompy 34]

The sense coming into this game is much more positive than that of GWS.
"MFC should win this game, but I wont be surprised if they lost to GWS" compared to "Carlton can play really well but MFC can strike when they're down"

Also good to note, although Spencer has not had an impressive run (and this will continue), this is invaluable experience that he has needed and it will reflect in later years. MFC will milk whatever games Jamar has left and by that time, Spencer and Gawn will be competitive.

[jumbo returns 6,547]

The sense coming into this game is much more positive than that of GWS.

"MFC should win this game, but I wont be surprised if they lost to GWS" compared to "Carlton can play really well but MFC can strike when they're down"

Also good to note, although Spencer has not had an impressive run (and this will continue), this is invaluable experience that he has needed and it will reflect in later years. MFC will milk whatever games Jamar has left and by that time, Spencer and Gawn will be competitive.

Geez, I know that they've both had injuries, but they'll need to start asserting themselves soon.....

[Hompy 34]

Geez, I know that they've both had injuries, but they'll need to start asserting themselves soon.....

who else do we have?

[The Chazz 4,077]

I'd have Dunn playing the defensive forward role on Gibbs.

I'd have Tyson going head to head on Murphy.

I'd potentially look at Watts tagging Daisy. Make Watts accountable, and at the same time, he will get a good lesson on how to play as a true outside mid.

Jordie can tag Simpson, as he often kills us.

Depending on where Walker plays, I would like to see possibly Bail go to him.

Carrazzo will have to go to Jones or Vince. Either way, one of them will probably be tagged by Curnow, so I expect that is the match-up that we need to smash.

Gives us some good match-ups, and considering I haven't got a "role" for Viney and possibly Matt Jones (he's due for a good game isn't he??!!), it's nice to know we are matching a club in terms of midfield depth.

I haven't picked us, I don't expect a win, but a forward showing wouldn't surprise. I just hope our players have a different mindset than me!

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

A few choice stats from the first 3 rounds:

disposals efficiency% clearances inside50 goals behinds
Melbourne Average 371 71.2 32.3 41.7 5.7 8.7
League Average 360 70.9 40.0 49.4 12.6 11.1

spot the odd one out!

[Ted Lasso 17,129]

A few choice stats from the first 3 rounds:

disposals efficiency% clearances inside50 goals behinds

Melbourne Average 371 71.2 32.3 41.7 5.7 8.7

League Average 360 70.9 40.0 49.4 12.6 11.1

spot the odd one out!

That's pretty shocking isn't it, simply we become more effective inside the forward 50 and we are suddenly capable of matching most sides

[Binmans PA 26,507]

It's funny reading the delusion on here. Hope is all great, but delusion is, well, just that. You all realise we're the worst AFL team of the last 30 years, don't you? It would be the upset of a generation, and just isn't gonna happen.

I think our team of 2013 was the worst AFL team of my lifetime (26 years).

St Kilda were pretty horrible for a long time.

Footscray were shyteful

There were some hidings in the mid 80's-then we came good.

Hawthorn were rubbish for a very long time too. The 80s was their golden era though. That's where they picked up all their fans from.

He is not in the team because of his disposal.

How do you explain Terlich or Grimes playing then? I think Nicholson is a reasonable VFL player, but Grimes and Terlich are VFL, perhaps even VFA standard.

Edited April 11, 2014 by AdamFarr

[Binmans PA 26,507]

A few choice stats from the first 3 rounds:

disposals efficiency% clearances inside50 goals behinds

Melbourne Average 371 71.2 32.3 41.7 5.7 8.7

League Average 360 70.9 40.0 49.4 12.6 11.1

spot the odd one out!

I see that we're well behind on clearance numbers, inside 50s and scoring shots. The first two stats are misleading and slanted in our favour because of our short kicking, possession game.

Edited April 11, 2014 by AdamFarr