It appears round one is flawed.

[Bagdana 58]

I know this competition is just a gimmick but how is a team who've just played a half of footy supposed to be competitive against fresh legs?

This weekend, every team that played a consecutive half lost.

Match one - works, even match, better team triumphs.

Match two - whom ever played in match one (against the fresh team) loses.

Match three - whom ever played in match two (against a freshened, one match off, team) loses.

Correction, one exception, Collingwood beat G.W.S. but they're not really an AFL team are they?

By this logic, next week I expect us to beat GC and lose to Brisbane.

Can someone please tell me it's not all this simple?

[McQueen 17,867]

I know this competition is just a gimmick but how is a team who've just played a half of footy supposed to be competitive against fresh legs?

This weekend, every team that played a consecutive half lost.

Match one - works, even match, better team triumphs.

Match two - whom ever played in match one (against the fresh team) loses.

Match three - whom ever played in match two (against a freshened, one match off, team) loses.

Correction, one exception, Collingwood beat G.W.S. but they're not really an AFL team are they?

By this logic, next week I expect us to beat GC and lose to Brisbane.

Can someone please tell me it's not all this simple?

Umm... Okay, it's not that simple.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Yep, I think you got it in one Territory. I noticed a similar pattern in a few early games last year as well...I almost took the odds of 13/1 for GWS v Pies just for that reason.

[McQueen 17,867]

Seriously though, the NAB is about new players, different game plans, set ups, structures etc.. Whilst a win is great, it's hardly anything to base form from.

I really don't read too much into it.

[pitmaster 3,578]

What is flawed is your sample: too small.

Exhibit A (and I don't have a B) is Melbourne last year played consecutive games against Adelaide and Port and won both.

[Samsara 65]

It is a flawed concept but it is only a pre-season cup, nothing more than a glorified practice match really!

[H_T 3,049]

Melbourne last year played consecutive games against Adelaide and Port and won both.

Correct. In what you'd call a hostile environment to boot.

[old dee 23,872]

Correct. In what you'd call a hostile environment to boot.

Was close to the high point of our year in 2011.

[demon-4-life 467]

Yeah...sample is definitely way too small to even consider a trend.

Not to mention there are way too many other variables to consider.

You'd need to analyse the players that played in both games. If there were any injuries. The home ground advantage. The coaching strategies. Should i go on?

Look up correlation statistics 101 for a better understanding.

[Bagdana 58]

I agree the sample is too small, fair point made. But I'll have a flutter this weekend on the whim as Wadda We Sing nearly did last weekend.

Hopefully the small sample size means it hasn't affected the odds!

D 4 Life, yes there are other variables that add to the formulation of a correlation between variables (winning and losing), I understand that. My hypothesis is, being knackered effects the outcome much more dramatically than most other factors. Collingwood resting half its team and Essendon travelling to Perth would examples of these "other variables" that one would need to consider.

I do also understand that the outcome really doesn't matter and am just keen to have a look at the boys and whatever game plan is on show but, at the end of the day, just hope we escape without injury. I only mention it as I find the format... interesting.

[H_T 3,049]

Melbourne is taking 34 players this coming weekend. If we assume that every side is doing similar, the variables are far and wide.

[Sir Why You Little 37,125]

Play as many kids as we can. Spread the load & cross the fingers nobody goes down. The NAB Cup in a nutshell.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,088]

The real question is why are Melbourne copping yet another interstate trip? In an even competition surely the teams that travelled last year should be playing at home this year. We copped the road trip from hell to Adelaide to play against two home teams, and now we're being sent to the Gold Coast. When will the AFL lay off and let Melbourne play a game at home?

[Chook 15,022]

The real question is why are Melbourne copping yet another interstate trip? In an even competition surely the teams that travelled last year should be playing at home this year. We copped the road trip from hell to Adelaide to play against two home teams, and now we're being sent to the Gold Coast. When will the AFL lay off and let Melbourne play a game at home?

Next week.

[Sir Why You Little 37,125]

Our interstate record is so poor i am happy to keep getting practise.

Perfect time for Neeld to set a standard when travelling.

[rolly 149]

to be fair though its a trip to the gold coast...to play bris and the gc.

it'll be a nice holiday with a heavier than normal training session on saturday night

[daisycutter 29,737]

When I saw this thread title I thought it was about Phil $cully

[Demonator 93]

to be fair though its a trip to the gold coast...to play bris and the gc.

it'll be a nice holiday with a heavier than normal training session on saturday night

And us poor members in Qld get an early couple of games under the belt!