Draft or trade

[kegs 0]

It seems to me that for a fair while now the top to quickly improving teams seem to reach a point when the draft becomes less of a focus and the trade table seems to take over. Teams reach a point in their devolopment when they are happy with their basic set up and start to use their draft picks to brings in players to compliment and polish of what they already have in order to push them the rest of the way.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton are prime examples of this while Geelong is probaly the odd one out(they instead had a father/son gift basket handed to them), each club has reached a stage when they have said we have what we need in terms of kids and now we need some experience and polish to finish the job.

My question is are we close to this point yet and if not how far of do you think we are.

In my opinion I think we are still a year off this stage but with draft selections being so valuable with the compromised draft it could be worth the risk to gamble on our very talented youth and make a play for that team lifter to get us up there with the big boys, such as Carlton did with their youth and getting Judd.

Any thoughts???

[rpfc 28,738]

It seems to me that for a fair while now the top to quickly improving teams seem to reach a point when the draft becomes less of a focus and the trade table seems to take over. Teams reach a point in their devolopment when they are happy with their basic set up and start to use their draft picks to brings in players to compliment and polish of what they already have in order to push them the rest of the way.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton are prime examples of this while Geelong is probaly the odd one out(they instead had a father/son gift basket handed to them), each club has reached a stage when they have said we have what we need in terms of kids and now we need some experience and polish to finish the job.

My question is are we close to this point yet and if not how far of do you think we are.

In my opinion I think we are still a year off this stage but with draft selections being so valuable with the compromised draft it could be worth the risk to gamble on our very talented youth and make a play for that team lifter to get us up there with the big boys, such as Carlton did with their youth and getting Judd.

Any thoughts???

Ottens filled a hole, Jolly and Ball too, Guerra, Dew, Hale, Burgoyne, for the Hawks.

Judd wasn't a hole filler really, he was a newly paved road...

Are we there yet?

I won't know what holes we have until we get close and fail. I can guess about the second ruck, but Martin is doing a very good impersonation of a guy who wants to play for a decade...

FF? Maybe.

Senior players with leadership abilities? Now we're cooking...

[kegs 0]

I agree with you that it is not the ideal time for us to launch an assult on the top of the ladder but with the draft the way it is it could be a chance worth takeing if we are brave and smart enough.

For me our greatest issue is our forward line our leadership and our toughness.

I personally think Scully is gone so with the picks we get for him (if it happens) we would have the salary cap and picks to make it happen for pretty much anyone

[The Big Ticket 94]

Ottens was the last piece of the jigsaw for Geelong. Huge trade.

I think we're a still a year or two away from being active at the trade table, IMO.

[Rogue 585]

The thing is that generally, the gap-fillers are older types, so you don't want to go too early or else they'll be past their best once you're in the 'window'.

I think we're probably too far off right now.

[ChaserJ 5,157]

The thing is that generally, the gap-fillers are older types, so you don't want to go too early or else they'll be past their best once you're in the 'window'.

I think we're probably too far off right now.

I agree.

Teams that build through the draft try to fill as many holes through draft selections. I remember BP said when building from scratch, you start with KP players (or the spine) and then players with genuine pace, because quality players with these attributes are harder to pick up with later selections in the draft.

Not all of your draft selections pan out. When the group evolves to the point of contention, list managers will then look at which players panned out, and recruit to cover the areas where players didn’t pan out.

Interesting to note how many recent grand finalists needed to top up with good ruckman. As mentioned here, Ottens at Geelong, Gardiner and King at St Kilda and Jolly were all targeted to fill a specific need for contenders (Hawthorn are still trying to plug the gap).

Obviously the Dee’s are in development stage and finding which draftees will work out long term (and in what position) and who won’t. Once players are established, then list management will have a serious look at trading in to fill holes that are preventing us from winning a premiership.

Of course we had a crack at David Hale to fill an immediate need last season. I’m happy that didn’t pan out, as we may not have had the chance to see Stef Martin step up, or see Max Gawn get a few early games in.

[H_T 3,049]

The thing is that generally, the gap-fillers are older types, so you don't want to go too early or else they'll be past their best once you're in the 'window'.

I think we're probably too far off right now.

Agree.

And what stage are we at the OP'er asks ? The "in the game" stage. Still developing.

[Guest Artie Bucco]

I don't agree with this.

You always need to be bringing in fresh young talent.

Trading depends on the deal.

It's not like you shift from a drafting to a trading strategy - you draft and keep your eye on the trade table for a good deal.

[Guest hangon007]

It seems to me that for a fair while now the top to quickly improving teams seem to reach a point when the draft becomes less of a focus and the trade table seems to take over. Teams reach a point in their devolopment when they are happy with their basic set up and start to use their draft picks to brings in players to compliment and polish of what they already have in order to push them the rest of the way.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton are prime examples of this while Geelong is probaly the odd one out(they instead had a father/son gift basket handed to them), each club has reached a stage when they have said we have what we need in terms of kids and now we need some experience and polish to finish the job.

My question is are we close to this point yet and if not how far of do you think we are.

In my opinion I think we are still a year off this stage but with draft selections being so valuable with the compromised draft it could be worth the risk to gamble on our very talented youth and make a play for that team lifter to get us up there with the big boys, such as Carlton did with their youth and getting Judd.

Any thoughts???

IMHO the most important point you have to consider are strengths & depth of the draft you are about to enter & where your picks are located in that draft. Essentially horses for courses ie a low finishing side might have a completely different strategy than a high finishing side or visa-versa or a side needing talls compared to a side needing mids.

Generally speaking ... IMHO with professional drafters you get a default consensus, normally where the lines start to get blurred around the point where teams are prepared too trade their draft picks. IMHO this is where the good drafters & poor drafters differentiate themselves. IMHO in BP, we the MFC have an outstandingly good draft team.

Sadly, most supporters only look at the position of the "cycle" they think their particular team is at. Plus they are wrongly obsessed by round numbers instead of pick number.

Edited June 22, 2011 by hangon007

[DeeSpencer 26,070]

Keep picking the best talents under the age of 24 (that may involve trades - but not big buy ins).

With GWS coming in I still think its important for us to get the strongest young list available.

Free agency will come in at the end of 2012 and that will help player movement and will make bringing in experience much easier, so I say wait until then for gap fillers.

[PaulRB 6,411]

I think we'd have to be finishing top 4 before we'd trade good draft picks to pick up highly specific players, to give us an immediate lift into serious flag contension. Like Pies with Jolly/Ball, Dogs with Hall, etc... which by my optimistic guess would be at the end of 2013...

[ChaserJ 5,157]

I don't agree with this.

You always need to be bringing in fresh young talent.

Trading depends on the deal.

It's not like you shift from a drafting to a trading strategy - you draft and keep your eye on the trade table for a good deal.

I don't think you're suggesting anything contrary to the points above.

Filling a specific need when you need an immediate contributer might be an aim(bearing in mind new draftees generally take time to settle and contribute regularly to the team), but doesn't necessarily represent a shift in overall strategy from drafting to trading. They're not mutually exclusive.

[nutbean 8,838]

Trades come up before the draft ( call me Captain obvious).

Unless there was a specific player who really wanted out of his club and was open to coming to the Dees - for example - Travis Cloke entertained going to Essendon two years ago - (how nicely would he fit in) I wouldnt be trading like Collingwood have done.

I dont think we are in the window like the Pies and Dogs to trade as they have but never say never

[Guest Artie Bucco]

I don't think you're suggesting anything contrary to the points above.

Filling a specific need when you need an immediate contributer might be an aim(bearing in mind new draftees generally take time to settle and contribute regularly to the team), but doesn't necessarily represent a shift in overall strategy from drafting to trading. They're not mutually exclusive.

I didn't see many of them - was replying to the OP, but was distracted and left it a little while before hitting "Add Reply".

When you're on the verge of a premiership, you do what you have to in an effort to push you over the edge (without comprehensively mortgaging the club's future).

Until then, you stick to drafting and only taking deals that make you better in the long-term.

I wouldn't trade for Jonathon Brown or Brent Harvey, but I'd trade for Dustin Martin or Stephen Hill, assuming the price was right.

[Guest hangon007]

I don't agree with this.

You always need to be bringing in fresh young talent.

Trading depends on the deal.

It's not like you shift from a drafting to a trading strategy - you draft and keep your eye on the trade table for a good deal.

I agree with this .... "You always need to be bringing in fresh talent."

However, I dont agree with you.

IMHO you do& should shift "from a drafting to a trading strategy" ... depending on the strengths & depth of an upcoming draft which is somewhat dependent on where your picks are located.

However, you have to be careful. Actions always speak louder than words. Many of the indicators to a weak draft are exactly the same as the indicators to a strong draft. Hence, you need to consider your needs.

Essentially you are seeking to exit a weak/shallow draft and increase your involvement in a strong/deep draft. However, again you are somewhat dependent on where your picks are located.

When you seek to exit a draft you should seek to increase your involvement at the trade table and visa-versa.

IMHO good clubs understand this ... poor clubs just do more of the same.

PS I should add you will never get 100% one way or another. Normally you can base it on probabilities ie 70/30 or 30/70

Edited June 22, 2011 by hangon007

[titan_uranus 25,042]

Dangerfield.

If it's true that he is considering bailing on Adelaide if Craig goes, and he wants to come back to Melbourne.

[old55 23,687]

I wouldn't trade for Jonathon Brown or Brent Harvey, but I'd trade for Dustin Martin or Stephen Hill, assuming the price was right.

You don't say! And I imagine you wouldn't bang Liza Minelli but Beyonce would be a different matter (if the price was right)

Would you trade for Brendan Goddard or James Kelly?

[kegs 0]

for the record I was not suggesting we forget the draft and fully focus on the trade table, I was just wondering when people thought we should move towards it and what kind of people we sould be looking at.

I personally think we should not just sit back and wait for a player to put his hand up and say come and trade for me, for to long people have been whispering in our players ears and I think it is time we did the same thing. Be proactive and if there are signs that a player is unhappy and it would benifit us then go for goal.

And as I said in the orig post I personally think Scully is gone so with the room in our cap and the draft picks that we will get for him then it may be the ideal time to get that star that we need

[Captain Jack Jordan 32]

Threre isn't really anyone we need as such but I guess we have to put a couple on the table? Give me 4 reasons why you would trade Bate before Morton?

[Guest Artie Bucco]

You don't say! And I imagine you wouldn't bang Liza Minelli but Beyonce would be a different matter (if the price was right)

Would you trade for Brendan Goddard or James Kelly?

Well, that's the point.

It's a bit bleedingly obvious and they're all on a case by case basis.

The juice has to be worth the squeeze.

I wouldn't take either of Kelly or Goddard because their cost would be greater than their impact, in my opinion.

But I think your strategy should always be to draft to bring in young talent, while always assessing your list and only making trades that will make your team better in the long-term - unless you are at the precipice and a trade will push you over the top.

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

Threre isn't really anyone we need as such but I guess we have to put a couple on the table? Give me 4 reasons why you would trade Bate before Morton?

Because I wouldn't trade Morton unless the deal was too good to be true. He's become the new whipping boy around here quite unfairly.

[Guest hangon007]

for the record I was not suggesting we forget the draft and fully focus on the trade table, I was just wondering when people thought we should move towards it and what kind of people we sould be looking at.

I personally think we should not just sit back and wait for a player to put his hand up and say come and trade for me, for to long people have been whispering in our players ears and I think it is time we did the same thing. Be proactive and if there are signs that a player is unhappy and it would benifit us then go for goal.

And as I said in the orig post I personally think Scully is gone so with the room in our cap and the draft picks that we will get for him then it may be the ideal time to get that star that we need

IMHO I would be spending 70-80% on my time at the trade table & 20-30% of my time at the draft table. For the following reasons.

a/ It would appear we have good currency at Casey.

b/ BP did an outstanding job via late & rookie picks last year.

c/ Our current ladder position hence our picks in the draft.

d/ GWS concession picks in this draft.

e/ I would be seeking to secure our father & son pick J Viney this year.

f/ Strength & depth of this draft ... "jury" is still out but its not overwhelmed by enthusiasm

Now player types at the trade table

IMHO ... 1/ Strong mature body full-forward. One we can get 2-4 years from. 2/ Mature body clearance player to further help our mid-field rotations. Although our clearance work has improved to compete against the top sides still think we are one mature body short.

I agree with you this is a year we should be proactive at getting inside opposition players ears.

However, should stress my position would somewhat marginally change if we where to have a poor finish to the year.

PS I dont agree Scully is gone. Far from it ... if we were to finish off well I would be very, very confident he would stay.

Edited June 22, 2011 by hangon007

[baysidedave 246]

It seems to me that for a fair while now the top to quickly improving teams seem to reach a point when the draft becomes less of a focus and the trade table seems to take over. Teams reach a point in their devolopment when they are happy with their basic set up and start to use their draft picks to brings in players to compliment and polish of what they already have in order to push them the rest of the way.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton are prime examples of this while Geelong is probaly the odd one out(they instead had a father/son gift basket handed to them), each club has reached a stage when they have said we have what we need in terms of kids and now we need some experience and polish to finish the job.

My question is are we close to this point yet and if not how far of do you think we are.

In my opinion I think we are still a year off this stage but with draft selections being so valuable with the compromised draft it could be worth the risk to gamble on our very talented youth and make a play for that team lifter to get us up there with the big boys, such as Carlton did with their youth and getting Judd.

Any thoughts???

I think we should still go young and just keep building the list unless a star player comes up and is under 25.

[BAMF 4,385]

I don't think we are in a position to top up like the hawks and collingwood did.

I would love us to go through the draft again, however if a great young player did become available I would be keen to have a crack.

Personally I would love for us to target Dangerfield, Rockliff, Redden, Mitch Clark, Jackson Trengrove. None of these players are likely to be available. Which is fine. Ill be happy with the draft.

Jesse White from the Swans if he was cheap as well.

[dee-luded 2,959]

It seems to me that for a fair while now the top to quickly improving teams seem to reach a point when the draft becomes less of a focus and the trade table seems to take over. Teams reach a point in their devolopment when they are happy with their basic set up and start to use their draft picks to brings in players to compliment and polish of what they already have in order to push them the rest of the way.

Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton are prime examples of this while Geelong is probaly the odd one out(they instead had a father/son gift basket handed to them), each club has reached a stage when they have said we have what we need in terms of kids and now we need some experience and polish to finish the job.

My question is are we close to this point yet and if not how far of do you think we are.

In my opinion I think we are still a year off this stage but with draft selections being so valuable with the compromised draft it could be worth the risk to gamble on our very talented youth and make a play for that team lifter to get us up there with the big boys, such as Carlton did with their youth and getting Judd.

Any thoughts???

To me the answer is our timeframe to our open window. With our age/games group I think our timeframe before thew window opens is 2014. So I don't think it's time Yet, as we don't yet know exactly what Real Class we have and which/who will fail.

I think in a years time when we've had a good chance to see Cook, Howe, Mcdonald, Gawn, Davis, Blease, Nicholson, Evans, Lawrence & how Maric, Wonnaemirri, Strauss, Morton, go over the remainder of this Year. And if the new Judd stayes or goes? As well we'll need to see how Spencer comes up next year. So i think we should look to trade out some for others homesick from interstate young players.

I think we are one year too early for any mature age players as top ups.

BY the Way, I'd throw everything @ trying to get Dangerfield here.

******************************