What does this season hold?

[Demon Stalwart 255]

At this time last year the topic of discussion was Baileys Future with the vote basically split

Everyone stated Melbourne had to improve, if Bailey was to survive.

It was a tough season in which we could have easily ended higher up the ladder if a few of the close games had gone the other way.

Towards the end of the season everyone was forcasting that Melbourne would end up in the Eight this season

In fact according to a number of Supporters it was a certainty.

However already I notice a number of supporters here, already saying or conceding we may not make the eight, that they will be happy if we can just mix it and get some experience under the belts of the younger players.

It seems to me that they have already made up their minds that we need more experience before we can truly threaten for the eight

Especially after all the AFL captains bar our own didnt see Melbourne making the eight this season.

So is it just another season of being just competitive or is it about winning and the eight?

However this begs the question as to what happens at the end of this season if we dont meet those targets?

Baileys contract is up

Mick Malthouse among others could be looking for a new home?

So my question is to everyone here is,

What is the minimum expectation you feel Melbourne should set for the season?

If we fall below those expectations , what responsibilty will the coach bear?

If we arise above those expectations what rewards should the coach receive?.

Bear in mind Draft picks are no longer a option, what we have now is Melbournes team for our Future and the Fututre of the Club.

So as a supporter who buys their membership and helps fund the Melbourne football club

what are your real expectations this season and dependant on the result what would be your attitude????

[Range Rover 1,935]

Not quite 'finals or bust' but if we go backwards or tread water without clear signs of improvement, he's gone.

11 wins - earns him another contract.

9 or 10 - no guarantees and things will depend on the coaching landscape

8 and under - clean out the desk.

My optimism has been tempered after what I have seen over the pre-season.

Edited March 19, 2011 by Range Rover

[dee-luded 2,958]

At this time last year the topic of discussion was Baileys Future with the vote basically split

Everyone stated Melbourne had to improve, if Bailey was to survive.

It was a tough season in which we could have easily ended higher up the ladder if a few of the close games had gone the other way.

Towards the end of the season everyone was forcasting that Melbourne would end up in the Eight this season

In fact according to a number of Supporters it was a certainty.

However already I notice a number of supporters here, already saying or conceding we may not make the eight, that they will be happy if we can just mix it and get some experience under the belts of the younger players.

It seems to me that they have already made up their minds that we need more experience before we can truly threaten for the eight

Especially after all the AFL captains bar our own didnt see Melbourne making the eight this season.

So is it just another season of being just competitive or is it about winning and the eight?

However this begs the question as to what happens at the end of this season if we dont meet those targets?

Baileys contract is up

Mick Malthouse among others could be looking for a new home?

So my question is to everyone here is,

What is the minimum expectation you feel Melbourne should set for the season?

If we fall below those expectations , what responsibilty will the coach bear?

If we arise above those expectations what rewards should the coach receive?.

Bear in mind Draft picks are no longer a option, what we have now is Melbournes team for our Future and the Fututre of the Club.

So as a supporter who buys their membership and helps fund the Melbourne football club

what are your real expectations this season and dependant on the result what would be your attitude????

Well if you want a cutoff figure to apportion the blame game,,, then to me, 11th, is questionable... 12th is a big Fail of our expectations.

My hopes are to be 10th - 8th.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Good thread. I have to say, after the first NAB Cup games I was feeling very optimistic of making the finals this year. Currently I feel less so.

This is probably due to our poor NAB Cup offering and is therefore largely superficial.

But - I think we've lost a lot with Junior and Bruce retiring/leaving. We perhaps needed to keep one of them for this season. Junior should still be wearing the red and the blue IMO.

I also think Frawley's absence has had a disturbingly negative effect on our backline - and I think Wellman's departure has been/will be a massive loss.

We need the backline to function like it was at the end of last season - and the early signs aren't that great.

[sylvinator 96]

Well if you want a cutoff figure to apportion the blame game,,, then to me, 11th, is questionable... 12th is a big Fail of our expectations.

My hopes are to be 10th - 8th.

I prefer to base success on number of wins, since we're not premiership chances this year and ladder position therefore doesn't matter as much imo.

If we got 8.5 wins last season, I would think 10 wins would be a pass mark. We have to continue to trend upwards.

10 wins will get us 10th-12th (9th even in some years), 11-12 wins could get us finals

[rpfc 27,590]

If, in the back of your mind, you are thinking a hard and fast rule on Bailey with his win/loss record or ladder position is a tad simplistic to decide the short to medium term future of the club, then you would be right.

I am sure Schwab would have developed with those at the club and around it, some measurement of progress that isn't reliant on the sometimes unrepresentative wins column or ladder position.

[dee-luded 2,958]

Good thread. I have to say, after the first NAB Cup games I was feeling very optimistic of making the finals this year. Currently I feel less so.

This is probably due to our poor NAB Cup offering and is therefore largely superficial.

But - I think we've lost a lot with Junior and Bruce retiring/leaving. We perhaps needed to keep one of them for this season. Junior should still be wearing the red and the blue IMO.

I also think Frawley's absence has had a disturbingly negative effect on our backline - and I think Wellman's departure has been/will be a massive loss.

We need the backline to function like it was at the end of last season - and the early signs aren't that great.

I agree Ron, that Jnr would be great to have in the side this year. It would help us this season on the ladder, But may slow us a little next year by not bighting the bullet, now. Either way, the longer term outlook of wanting a flag is not born out on where we finish, This Year. But more on how we learn to team together our strategies & skills.

Our individuals need to raise the personal levels as well, to help raise the standard.

Wellman, whilst a good defence coach, is not the only one out there. Royal is different, and has come over at a time when, We are about to Change our defesive styles and personell. NO Doubt these changes will appear odd and clumsy, as we change our defence & mids to a younger group.

I don't think we'll get a good feel for where our defence is at, till around 1/3rd season,,, Rnd 7 - 8.

Edited March 19, 2011 by dee-luded

[Range Rover 1,935]

If, in the back of your mind, you are thinking a hard and fast rule on Bailey with his win/loss record or ladder position is a tad simplistic to decide the short to medium term future of the club, then you would be right.

I am sure Schwab would have developed with those at the club and around it, some measurement of progress that isn't reliant on the sometimes unrepresentative wins column or ladder position.

Surely, as I indicated in my assessment, there must be a grey area where wins and the coaching landscape becomes a factor in the future of a football coach.

Particularly one who's contract is up at the end of the season.

That grey area is called 'pressure'. No-one gets a free pass.

Edited March 19, 2011 by Range Rover

[Samsara 65]

I would be happy with 10-12 wins this season, no less. Given our draw, especially the first few games, this shouldn't be a problem. In fact, with Sydney, Hawthorn, Brisbane, West Coast and Gold Coast in first 6 weeks (plus a bye), there is no reason we can't be at least 3-2 or even 4-1 by Round 6. I think the first few rounds will really set us up for a great season if we can at least snare 3 wins from the first 5 teams we play.

[DemonOX 8,541]

Not quite 'finals or bust' but if we go backwards or tread water without clear signs of improvement, he's gone.

11 wins - earns him another contract.

9 or 10 - no guarantees and things will depend on the coaching landscape

8 and under - clean out the desk.

My optimism has been tempered after what I have seen over the pre-season.

Like your thinking Range Rover. If the Dees show pressure on the ball carrier (in the midfield) then the ball will not get into the opps I50 as much and therefore our backline will not be exposed as much. When teams apply pressure on the Dees they seem to go to water. This has to improve this year and if it does then the results will take care of itself. If it doesnt and we win 9-10 games IMO its goddbye Bails and hello Roos, Malthouse, Mathews with G Lyon as assistant. I know we need patience but we have to see improvement. I dont know about the rest of you but I am getting sick of hearing from the players and coaches we need to do this or that. Its time to start doing it NOW and less talk about doing it.

[rpfc 27,590]

Surely, as I indicated in my assessment, there must be a grey area where wins and the coaching landscape becomes a factor in the future of a football coach.

Particularly one who's contract is up at the end of the season.

That grey area is called 'pressure'. No-one gets a free pass.

What assessment?

You have a hard and fast measure for renewal/non-renewal of Bailey's contract.

And I am hardly giving anyone a free pass.

I want improvement in specific key areas/indicators otherwise it's hasta luego, por favor...

[H_T 2,941]

What does this season hold ?

In short. Further development. For those expecting finals ? I would say there are some valid aspects that add weight to the belief we might have to hold on for some disappointment. Temper your expectations - for now. Smile if we do.

Key indicators:

• Pre-season form
  
• Injuries - Frawley, Morton, McKenzie
  
• No Bruce, no Junior. (loss of experience)
  
• Inexperience (need more games together)
  
• Youngest list next to Suns.
  
• Midfield (inexperience and losses of Junior, McKenzie(inj) will impact on clearances, tackling etc)
  

Regarding coaching - hold onto that thought. Assess season; address later. But recognise, be mindful and take into account our list.

[Roost It 1,434]

What about this for a scenario.

We win 11 games, narrowly lose to Hawks, Collingwood, St Kilda and miss the 8 with a percentage of 102.4.

Paul Roos signals his desire to coach a Melbourne team.

Do we resign Bailey or offer Roos a contract?

On top of this do you think the club has already approached anyone with a view to taking us to the next level or are they happy with Bailey?

Part of me would love to see Bailey given the chance to finish what he's began but could the club pass on Roos.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Like your thinking Range Rover. If the Dees show pressure on the ball carrier (in the midfield) then the ball will not get into the opps I50 as much and therefore our backline will not be exposed as much. When teams apply pressure on the Dees they seem to go to water. This has to improve this year and if it does then the results will take care of itself. If it doesnt and we win 9-10 games IMO its goddbye Bails and hello Roos, Malthouse, Mathews with G Lyon as assistant. I know we need patience but we have to see improvement. I dont know about the rest of you but I am getting sick of hearing from the players and coaches we need to do this or that. Its time to start doing it NOW and less talk about doing it.

Am I the only one on this site that hopes like hell that G Lyon never has any form of caoching role at the MFC? Just curious! Fully respect he is a Demon great.

In response to the OP, and as I have mentiuoned on other threads - we are not in the best 7 teams in the league, therefore anyone with expectations that we will finish higher than that are unrealistic. The difference between the side that finishes 8th this year and the side that finishes 12th will be minimal. We finished at the back end of that group last year, my expectation is that we will finish closer to the top end of those sides (ie we should finish 8th-10th).

It is very difficult to put a wins/losses target on this team. All I hope for at the end of the season in that we put in a few more performances like we did against Sydney, especially against lower teams. Of those top 7 teams that I think are better than us, we play them a total of 9 times, meaning we have 13 games that should be winnable. 2 of those are hard (ie. one in West Coast, one at AAMI), so that coems down to 11 games where we should have a lot of confidence. Allowing a couple of those "easier" games to not pan out how they should (ie we lose), and allowing for us to rise in a couple of the games against the top 7 teams, 11 wins would have to be your target.

The other thing I want to see is the size of the losses continue to shrink. Losing to teams like Carlton and North by 6 goals or more is not acceptable. If we don't meet my "target" of 11 wins, as long as those games we lost we were in the game for most of it, then I think Bailey will happily accept a 2 year extension at seasons end.

[45HG 1,539]

Average score for:

2008: 74

2009: 77.5

2010: 84.7

Average score against:

2008: 118.3

2009: 103.9

2010: 89.6

Average winning margin:

2008: 13.7

2009: 25.5

2010: 31.6

Average losing margin:

2008: 53.4

2009: 37.8

2010: 27.8

10+ Goal losses:

2008: 7

2009: 2

2010: 0

40+ point losses:

2008: 11

2009: 10

2010: 4

<12 points losses:

2008: 0

2009: 3

2010: 4

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

First quarters won:

2008: 5 (56.37 %)

2009: 8 (72.4 %)

2010: 8 (84.43 %)

Second quarters won:

2008: 2 (49.19 %)

2009: 8 (76.59 %)

2010: 9 (86.67 %)

Third quarters won:

2008: 7 (61.83%)

2009: 6 (62.58%)

2010: 11 (131.63 %)

Fourth quarters won:

2008: 9 (82.52 %)

2009: 10 (89.59%)

2010: 8 (81.4 %)

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

Second halves percentage:

2008: 72

2009: 75

2010: 105

Half time margins:

2008

Up (4)

Down by less than 10 (1)

Down by 10-20 (3)

Down by 21-30 (1)

Down by 31+ (13)

2009

Up (5)

Down by less than 10 (6)

Down by 10-20 (1)

Down by 21-30 (4)

Down by 30+ (6)

2010

Up (6)

Down by less than 10 (6) * 1 even

Down by 10-20 (4)

Down by 21-30 (0)

Down by 30+ (6)

Full time margins:

2008:

Up by less than 10 (2)

Up by 10-30 (0)

Up by 31+ (1)

Down by less than 10 (0)

Down by 10-30 (6)

Down by 31+ (13)

2009:

Up by less than 10 (1)

Up by 10-30 (2)

Up by 31+ (1)

Down by less than 10 (3)

Down by 10-30 (3)

Down by 31+ (12)

2010:

Up by less than 10 (2)

Up by 10-30 (3)

Up by 31+ (3)

Down by less than 10 (2) * One even

Down by 10-30 (6)

Down by 31+ (5)

[The Chazz 4,077]

Average winning margin:

2008: 13.7

2009: 25.5

2010: 31.6

Average losing margin:

2008: 53.4

2009: 37.8

2010: 27.8

10+ Goal losses:

2008: 7

2009: 2

2010: 0

40+ point losses:

2008: 11

2009: 10

2010: 4

<12 points losses:

2008: 0

2009: 3

2010: 4

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

3rd quarter percentage:

2008: 61.83

2009: 62.58

2010: 131.63

Yet some still question Bailey's ability!

[PaulRB 5,985]

Bailey has shown a focused, deft and courageous approach to building a potential premiership squad. He is not afraid to take a step back (retiring Junior) in order to take two forward (blooding his premiership squad) despite the short term nature of the media and some fans. The stats (above) confirm year on year improvement while also investing in game time for the talented kids.

Every things he's done so far confirms his focus on and capability to building a premiership capable squad, collecting a great list, building a player based leadership culture, knowing where we are and only upping expectations in alignment with reality, patiently investing in the kids and silently amassing a squad that will be able to execute the game style which he (and presumably the insiders at the club) believes will be advantagous when our window is open in 2013+ when are player game average equals 100+.

Every aspect of the build since Bailey arrived has been managed to near perfection. To say 8 wins or less means Bailey clear out your desk is so simplistic and mindless. For example, Jamar does his knee round 1, Jurrah and Pettard their shoulders again in round 5 and Tom makes a tragic announcement in round 15. As a result Melb only win 8 games, is it Baileys fault?

I'd rather we appreciate and respect him for whats he's done so far, and for his preparedness to risk his coaching career to deliver what all Melb fans so desperately want, another flag. In my mind he risking alot more and giving alot more to the MFC than most fans would ever be prepared (or able) to do.

Edited March 20, 2011 by PaulRB

[Sir Why You Little 34,697]

Average score for:

2008: 74

2009: 77.5

2010: 84.7

Average score against:

2008: 118.3

2009: 103.9

2010: 89.6

Average winning margin:

2008: 13.7

2009: 25.5

2010: 31.6

Average losing margin:

2008: 53.4

2009: 37.8

2010: 27.8

10+ Goal losses:

2008: 7

2009: 2

2010: 0

40+ point losses:

2008: 11

2009: 10

2010: 4

<12 points losses:

2008: 0

2009: 3

2010: 4

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

3rd quarter percentage:

2008: 61.83

2009: 62.58

2010: 131.63

Dean Bailey is doing a brilliant job so far isn't he...can we pin these stats so they can be read often.

Well done 45, a bit of sanity prevails.

[deeflog 679]

my thoughts on this season are not great and may lead to a barrage of critism, but i think all this season holds for MFC and its supporters is disappointment.

There is far too much pressure on this young group, and a major outside distraction(Scully) and its going to take its toll.

Not enough old heads and mature bodies aroung the kids

Too many key injuries leading into the season. Frawley, Morton, McKenzie, Trengove are major components to the side who are struggling for round one or have already been ruled out

Pre season form apart from the SA trip has been at best ordinary. Too many key players down on form, not getting their hands on the ball

Finally what is fast becoming the most important aspect of AFL is non existant....forward pressure

My thoughts judged on what i have seen in pre season, i can only hope to be proved wrong when the real stuff starts

[Disco Demons 92]

Junior, Bruce and Miller were all a big part of the leadership team...melb needs to show onfield that they have moved on from these guys...if melb can show they have moved on from these guys then we might be a shot of the finals.

i realise miller to less of extent but he was a clubman.

[Great_little_footy_team 8]

Average score for:

2008: 74

2009: 77.5

2010: 84.7

Average score against:

2008: 118.3

2009: 103.9

2010: 89.6

Average winning margin:

2008: 13.7

2009: 25.5

2010: 31.6

Average losing margin:

2008: 53.4

2009: 37.8

2010: 27.8

10+ Goal losses:

2008: 7

2009: 2

2010: 0

40+ point losses:

2008: 11

2009: 10

2010: 4

<12 points losses:

2008: 0

2009: 3

2010: 4

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

3rd quarter percentage:

2008: 61.83

2009: 62.58

2010: 131.63

One of the best posts I've seen. Go Dees and go Deano!

Rather than offer these hypothetical situations in which we could be in trouble just sit back, watch us play an have faith we'll see an improvement as we have ever since Bailey took over

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

What does this season hold ?

In short. Further development. For those expecting finals ? I would say there are some valid aspects that add weight to the belief we might have to hold on for some disappointment. Temper your expectations - for now. Smile if we do.

Key indicators:

• Pre-season form
  
• Injuries - Frawley, Morton, McKenzie
  
• No Bruce, no Junior. (loss of experience)
  
• Inexperience (need more games together)
  
• Youngest list next to Suns.
  
• Midfield (inexperience and losses of Junior, McKenzie(inj) will impact on clearances, tackling etc)
  

Regarding coaching - hold onto that thought. Assess season; address later. But recognise, be mindful and take into account our list.

People who dont realise that this is another development year where we could be looking at another 11th to 13th finish are going to have their dreams rudely shattered.

And Schwab and co will have a metric for measuring Bailey on more than win/loss. But people will gravitate to what their capable of.

Hard learning season coming up. Make no mistake about it.

[Rogue 585]

At this time last year the topic of discussion was Baileys Future with the vote basically split

Everyone stated Melbourne had to improve, if Bailey was to survive.

It was a tough season in which we could have easily ended higher up the ladder if a few of the close games had gone the other way.

Towards the end of the season everyone was forcasting that Melbourne would end up in the Eight this season

In fact according to a number of Supporters it was a certainty.

However already I notice a number of supporters here, already saying or conceding we may not make the eight, that they will be happy if we can just mix it and get some experience under the belts of the younger players.

It seems to me that they have already made up their minds that we need more experience before we can truly threaten for the eight

Especially after all the AFL captains bar our own didnt see Melbourne making the eight this season.

So is it just another season of being just competitive or is it about winning and the eight?

It's worth correcting you on one point - not everyone was forecasting that Melbourne would end up in the eight this season. (I wasn't, so your assertion is already wrong, and I certainly wasn't the only one).

I bet that many of the posters now coming out and watering down the idea that this is going to be a breakout year wouldn't be saying the same if we'd played better in the NAB Cup/Challenge, but regardless, they're right.

For me, this season is about improvement. I'd like to see us play a style that looks as though it can be a success, and have some marked improvement in players that are an important part of our future. Sure, I'd like wins, but what I want is wins in a season that leads to a premiership, and that's not this year. Improvement doesn't necessarily mean making finals, or even having more wins - it's IMO foolish to set arbitrary guidelines since the context is so important.

Would we be happy sneaking into finals with a relatively poor percentage after snatching some lucky wins and getting blown out of the water by numerous sides? Would that necessarily be better than just missing out on finals despite a strong percentage, some 'brave' losses and marked improvement in some young guys that step up while many of our better players miss games in an injury-cursed year? No man is an island, and that applies to footy teams too.

Btw, nice research/post, 45.

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

Leading into the past few years I've said that percentage is a better indicator than wins and I think the above indicates our improvement over the past couple of years nicely.

[DemonWA 3,504]

if Bailey can demonstrate that he can coach/develop the kids then keep him on. Id say 8 wins would be a minimum, but i'd judge him more on our game plan and style than purley win/loss ratio. My concern would be that if we dont win more games than we did last year, and we continue to over use the "getting experience into the team" mantra, then we might not be improving as much as we could under a different style of coach. We have some of the best young talent around, great facilities, and we need great coaches to get the best out of them.

At the moment we seem to have a game plan that relys on rebounding from the backline. If we dont start to win more of the ball closer to our own goals then i'd start to get a little worried. i'd like to watch us play and feel like we have a game plan which doesnt rely on the back 1/3 of the field to beat their direct opponant to allow us to get possesion.

[Kento80 83]

Average score for:

2008: 74

2009: 77.5

2010: 84.7

Average score against:

2008: 118.3

2009: 103.9

2010: 89.6

Average winning margin:

2008: 13.7

2009: 25.5

2010: 31.6

Average losing margin:

2008: 53.4

2009: 37.8

2010: 27.8

10+ Goal losses:

2008: 7

2009: 2

2010: 0

40+ point losses:

2008: 11

2009: 10

2010: 4

<12 points losses:

2008: 0

2009: 3

2010: 4

Percentage:

2008: 62.61

2009: 74.66

2010: 94.52

First halves percentage:

2008: 53

2009: 75

2010: 85

3rd quarter percentage:

2008: 61.83

2009: 62.58

2010: 131.63

Absolutely loved this post 45. Good work. It shows a clear improvement and that is marvelous. The other thing it does is create a blueprint as to how this year should go. If those stats had wavered a bit more, it would give more leeway as it would have been more understandable given the kids were younger. Now they are a little older, wiser and more experienced which leaves no excuses, because they were the ones that set the trajectory. I can't wait to see the 2011 added onto this post at the end of the season. I reckon we'll all be stoked with another year of improvement.