The Run Home

[Rocknroll 923]

Still high from yesterday’s performance. Great to have a win like that

We need to stop all this finals talk. What we need to talk about is a platform to launch from next year and into the future.

Games like that will give the players the belief to mess it with any team. What we need now is a few more wins like that before the end of the year.

So over summer when the boys are in Bali or surfing or not eating Turtle they can have something to hold onto. Something they can buy into.

Then get a good preseason into those young bodies and manage our injuries well and launch into 2011.

Go you demons...........

[CarnTheDees 52]

The Dees are more than a sneaky chance to play finals this year:

8 Syd 36

9 North 32

10 Adelaide 28

11 Melb 26

Based on who Id tip right now:

R18:

BL v Melb toss of the coin

Ric v Ade toss of the coin

Syd v Geel

WBv North

R19:

Syd v Haw

North v Freo toss of the coin

Melb v Rich

Ade v WB

R20:

Fre v Syd

BL v Ade toss of the coin

Haw v Melb

North v StK

R21:

Coll v Ade

Syd v WB

PA v Melb toss of the coin

WC v North toss of the coin

R22:

Ade v StK

BL v Syd toss of the coin

Melb v North

So after all that the likely finishing points tallies are:

Syd 36 40

North 32 40

Adelaide 28 36

Melbourne 34 42

If we win 4 out of the last 5 (and finish on 42 points) I would predict that we will finish 8th. Hard to see any of the other teams getting higher than 40 points though it could very well come down to the very last match of the H&A season against the Kangas for 8th spot.

Edited July 26, 2010 by CarnTheDees

[Felix 92]

Fingers crossed melbourne can win 4 of their last 5 games.

[titan_uranus 22,541]

The HUN has us making the finals, winning all of our remaining games except the Hawthorn one, and Sydney, North and Adelaide all struggling.

I wonder what that's based on?

Tbh, we should be able to win the four games identified (BL, Richmond, Hawthorn, PA), but we all know how we fare interstate.

If we keep our form up, score another 3-4 wins, and finish 8-10 on the ladder, hopefully we'll be rewarded with a nice draw next year. That's the important thing for me. Not finals. In fact I'd kind of like us to finish 9th as a form of motivation for next year.

[Dreamin' Demon 10]

Our problem is lack of consistency. We can win 3-4 of the next 5 if we bring Sundays game plan to every match however; we all know that our young team can change week in week out.

We can do something really dumb like lose miserably against the lions this Saturday night & top it off with a 70 points thrashing from Port Power at our favourite interstate ground - AAMI park.

I haven't worried about our lack of consistency because of our young side. Next year i'm expecting a lot more.

[Strawbsodwyer 0]

this week concerns me, crunch game for the demons, lions will be thinking they are a chance and will come out hard demons must meet them and maintain their effort from last week. It will be great to get a good win against an interstate team.

[Deetective Sgt. Taggert 380]

this week concerns me, crunch game for the demons, lions will be thinking they are a chance and will come out hard demons must meet them and maintain their effort from last week. It will be great to get a good win against an interstate team.

Its been crunch game for the Lions for a while now and they haven't delivered - you would have backed them to beat Richmond but they lost (admittedly with a weaker Brissy Team minus both Black and Brown if I recall correctly) - so I think it's more a question of what game Melbourne brings next week as posters above have already pointed out that will be the key to this game.

[Carn dees 108]

Doing the ladder predictor yesterday trying to work out the final four and top 8 more than anything, not really focusing to much on melbourne. I came to find after round 21 that we where 8th, amazing. I think we are capable of winning 4 of the next 5. Sydney, Adelaide and Nth Melbourne have a pretty rough run home.

[beelzebub 22,241]

we ought to have a fair crack at teh Lions....and the Toiges... then we run out of felines. I think we ca give the Sqawkers a game but dot expect a win ( saying that I didt yesterday either..lol ) In many ways id be hapier winning against North than Hawthorn as the Kangas just seem to have teh wood at the moment and Id like to go out this year on a win there. Port ?? hmm... AAMI is such a hapy hunting ground for us

I still reckon itll be there about at 9-10th.. happy with that this year, no need to load up the kids with short lived finals eforts , better for mine to go into a solid preseason and come out next year and get to october in better shape

[The Chazz 4,077]

I think we could still make it even if we lose to Hawthorn (likely) and Power, which means winning the other games.

Soooooooo much will rest on the results of other games (sorry for stating the obvious!). I've tried a couple of different scenarios, and can even see Hawthorn finishing 5th and Freo 6th. Personally, IF we were to sneak 8th (and it wont be a higher finish than that), I'd prefer to be playing the Dockers rather than Hawthorn, even given the home ground advantage.

For the record, I don't think September is calling this year but selected the 7-9 option.

Couple of things - I'm sure I'd get good odds for this;

Geelong to go out in straight sets, multibet with Collingwood v Melbourne Grand Final.

Anyone from Sportingbet on here want to give me a quote?!

[BennytheJet 15]

Doing the ladder predictor yesterday trying to work out the final four and top 8 more than anything, not really focusing to much on melbourne. I came to find after round 21 that we where 8th, amazing. I think we are capable of winning 4 of the next 5. Sydney, Adelaide and Nth Melbourne have a pretty rough run home.

I did the same thing, and have us 6 points clear in round 21??? Surely I must have been too tough on sydney, adelaide and north but at least shows 8th is a distinct possibility.

[45HG 1,539]

While I don't think we'll make it, one thing I will say is that if we do I'm not too sure I'd want to play us!

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

I think we could still make it even if we lose to Hawthorn (likely) and Power, which means winning the other games.

We will be battling to make it even if we win all 5 games. (Not getting ahead of myself).

While I don't think we'll make it, one thing I will say is that if we do I'm not too sure I'd want to play us!

Absolutely.

There is nothing sides competing in September fear more than an opposition coming off a string of wins and loads of momentum.

However, I think we are good for 2 to 3 wins which puts us at 8.5 to 9.5 wins for the year. I expected 8 wins at the start of the year.

[The Chazz 4,077]

We will be battling to make it even if we win all 5 games. (Not getting ahead of myself).

Absolutely.

There is nothing sides competing in September fear more than an opposition coming off a string of wins and loads of momentum.

However, I think we are good for 2 to 3 wins which puts us at 8.5 to 9.5 wins for the year. I expected 8 wins at the start of the year.

As I said RR, it will depend on other results. If they go our way, we can make it even with 3 more wins, if they don't - we wont. And you're right, if we win all games, we still may not make it.

I'm not getting ahead of myself either by saying that we can make it with 3 wins. Just highlighting the eveness of the comp this year and a possible (not probable) outcome.

[Face Your Demons 175]

The HUN has us making the finals, winning all of our remaining games except the Hawthorn one, and Sydney, North and Adelaide all struggling.

I wonder what that's based on?

Tbh, we should be able to win the four games identified (BL, Richmond, Hawthorn, PA), but we all know how we fare interstate.

If we keep our form up, score another 3-4 wins, and finish 8-10 on the ladder, hopefully we'll be rewarded with a nice draw next year. That's the important thing for me. Not finals. In fact I'd kind of like us to finish 9th as a form of motivation for next year.

Spot on. Would not knock a final but ninth would be a very good finsh to the year.

Edited July 26, 2010 by Face Your Demons

[beelzebub 22,241]

Again beig realistic... ( not pessimistic..lol ) Id rate Lions Tigers and Kangas as very possible. Hawthorn are just too on song and Port at port as they get a bit of belief et`c might prove a stadium too far. Thats 3 wins or 9-1/2 for the year with a likely of a just over 100 %.

North needs less than 2 games...Adl less than 3 and us to win 3 to even have a shy at it. That drawn game is now worth a premium of sorts But that also needs Swans and /or Carlton to win no more....a little unlikely..

You really need10-1/2barest min and really at least 11 games ( most years ) to even be thinking of top 8 and even then thats iffy.

We arent likely to get that.

[Sydney Dee 1]

Brisbane - WIN - I have a feeling they'll really aim up for this one and try to end their dreadful losing streak. Still, I reckon that now is as good a time as ever to get a rare interstate win with confidence sky high.

Richmond - WIN - Richmond are very overrated and I'd love to put them in their place.

Hawthorn - LOSS - As long as we are competitive for the whole match then that's all we can ask for.

Port - WIN - We fell in against them in Darwin, but really should beat this team.

North - WIN - Another team which I believe has been overrated this season. Could be Junior's 250th? Should finish a good season off in style.

My views might be seen as a touch optimistic but I really feel we can finish the season off strongly. Hopefully we can come away with two interstate wins and another two at the G.

[The Chazz 4,077]

Again beig realistic... ( not pessimistic..lol ) Id rate Lions Tigers and Kangas as very possible. Hawthorn are just too on song and Port at port as they get a bit of belief et`c might prove a stadium too far. Thats 3 wins or 9-1/2 for the year with a likely of a just over 100 %.

North needs less than 2 games...Adl less than 3 and us to win 3 to even have a shy at it. That drawn game is now worth a premium of sorts But that also needs Swans and /or Carlton to win no more....a little unlikely..

You really need10-1/2barest min and really at least 11 games ( most years ) to even be thinking of top 8 and even then thats iffy.

We arent likely to get that.

The Swans play 4 teams in the top 8 (Geel, Hawth, Bulld, and Freo at Freo), with only Brisbane at the GABBA their other opponent in the last 5 rounds. The chance of them not winning another game for the rest of the year is quite high. Even if they picked up 1, that would mean Melbourne would be 3.5 games behind them (obviously we would need to win 4 to get ahead of them.

So, if we win this magical number of 4, that would mean Adelaide can win 3 or less. They have Richmd in Vic, Bullies at crow park, Bris at Gabba, Collingwood and Saints both in Vic. You would think they would lose the last 2, therefore the most they could win would be 3 - which means beating the Dogs. Highly possible that they will win only 2 games.

Kangas have Dogs, Freo and Saints all in Melbourne, then Eagles in WA, and finish with us. They are 1.5 games in front of us. I can't see them beating Dogs or Saints, and really we need to beat them which will give them 3 loses - a total maximum of 2 wins over the net 5 rounds. Again, if we win 4 games, we will pass them too.

The above scenario is realistic given the fixture of those few teams above us compared to ours. If we can keep some consistency over the next 5 weeks, and play similar to yesterday (hard to play that level for that period of time at this stage in our development), we are a realistic chance of winning 4.

Now, let's say we drop the Hawks game AND the Power game. It would mean Sydney have to lose to Brisbane at the Gabba in the last round, Kanags losing to West Coast in WA, and Adelaide losing to either Richmond at MCG or Brisbane at the Gabba (either could be possible).

It is a realistic possibility that we could make the finals with 3 wins out of the net 5, and the above scenarios taking place. It wont be in the same league as the great Bradbury, but gee, we're in with a rough chance.

Round 22 could be an interesting round of football. I may need to go to the Gabba in that round and barrack for the Lion over the Swans!

Hit me with it Rhino...!!!

[Chook 14,594]

The Swans play 4 teams in the top 8 (Geel, Hawth, Bulld, and Freo at Freo), with only Brisbane at the GABBA their other opponent in the last 5 rounds. The chance of them not winning another game for the rest of the year is quite high. Even if they picked up 1, that would mean Melbourne would be 3.5 games behind them (obviously we would need to win 4 to get ahead of them.

So, if we win this magical number of 4, that would mean Adelaide can win 3 or less. They have Richmd in Vic, Bullies at crow park, Bris at Gabba, Collingwood and Saints both in Vic. You would think they would lose the last 2, therefore the most they could win would be 3 - which means beating the Dogs. Highly possible that they will win only 2 games.

Kangas have Dogs, Freo and Saints all in Melbourne, then Eagles in WA, and finish with us. They are 1.5 games in front of us. I can't see them beating Dogs or Saints, and really we need to beat them which will give them 3 loses - a total maximum of 2 wins over the net 5 rounds. Again, if we win 4 games, we will pass them too.

The above scenario is realistic given the fixture of those few teams above us compared to ours. If we can keep some consistency over the next 5 weeks, and play similar to yesterday (hard to play that level for that period of time at this stage in our development), we are a realistic chance of winning 4.

Now, let's say we drop the Hawks game AND the Power game. It would mean Sydney have to lose to Brisbane at the Gabba in the last round, Kanags losing to West Coast in WA, and Adelaide losing to either Richmond at MCG or Brisbane at the Gabba (either could be possible).

It is a realistic possibility that we could make the finals with 3 wins out of the net 5, and the above scenarios taking place. It wont be in the same league as the great Bradbury, but gee, we're in with a rough chance.

Round 22 could be an interesting round of football. I may need to go to the Gabba in that round and barrack for the Lion over the Swans!

Hit me with it Rhino...!!!

Very well summed up. I'm glad I didn't have to post all of that, though.

[GRUN DEE 69]

We dont just make the finals! But go all the way! That was last nights dream...

The football community were shocked! The 1st of many!

[Gorgoroth 12,331]

Seriously, we could well put in a normal interstate performance against the lions and get flogged up there.

When and if we get to the last round and we are a chance I might then entertain the idea of finals, But I am very very doubtful.

I think we will drop at least 2 games out of the 5 and would not be surprised if the Hawks are not one of the ones we drop.

[Guest DeesPower]

We dont just make the finals! But go all the way! That was last nights dream...

The football community were shocked! The 1st of many!

I think it is looking very like 1987 all over again.

A must win in final round, making finals depending on other results, and then huge momentum going into final series. If we make it it would be fascinating: I reckon in this scenario if we played like on sunday, and we played these games at the MCG (which might be possible with the distinct possibility that there will be NO finals this year played at Ethiat because of the state of the ground), we would be very competitive against all teams, and would beat everyone except Geelong and St.Kilda, although given their finals record the saints seem to at times in finals out wobble the Collywobbles.

What odds would we get in a Collingwood v Melbourne Grand Final. We would just about have the psychological edge over them given what happened this year wouldn't we?

Dream on Dees!

[beelzebub 22,241]

lets not get too ahead of ourselves.... As DB poignantly offered on OTC..lets maintain the efort and lets win away. Thats his focus. Lets see what we do in Brisbane before getting carried away. As nice in some ways to make this years finals its really 011 and onwards where we stand to be competitive in October.

yes..it could all conspire to put us there this year... I just doubt it.