the second half and the draft

[pitmaster 3,474]

I was disappointed two years ago when so many Demons wanted to lose to Carlton in round 22. I value any win especially against the arrogant Big Four clubs.

That said, most football followers would say Carlton were smart and picked up a sensational follower.

After QB, I am ready for a grim 11 weeks since I don't think we have to tank or talk about it.

Only fate can stop us getting picks one and two. The threats are Richmond, WC and Freo one of which might finish below us.

And WC, if they fail to win another game, would also score a priority pick. That is not going to happen. Let's take a look at the draw.

WC play Richmond twice. us at the 'G, Freo, Essendon and Norf at Subi - that's five games in which they have a realistic chance, and I'll give them three of those which takes them to six wins.

Freo, also on three wins has a tougher draw but winnables for them are Brisbane at Subi at night, WC, Port at Subi, us at the 'G and Essendon at Subi. I'll give them two which makes five wins.

Richmond are the big threat but they have WC twice - at the G and Subi - Us, Sydney, Norf and Essendon at the 'G - and with the new coach factor I reckon them for three, maybe four wins, taking them to six.

We have winnables against WC, Norf, Freo, Tigers - but I reckon second time they'll be fired up - and I don't discount entirely beating Sydney or Essendon but I can't see us winning more than three - for a total of four.

Should I relax?

[Matt Demon 1,407]

I was disappointed two years ago when so many Demons wanted to lose to Carlton in round 22. I value any win especially against the arrogant Big Four clubs.

That said, most football followers would say Carlton were smart and picked up a sensational follower.

After QB, I am ready for a grim 11 weeks since I don't think we have to tank or talk about it.

Only fate can stop us getting picks one and two. The threats are Richmond, WC and Freo one of which might finish below us.

And WC, if they fail to win another game, would also score a priority pick. That is not going to happen. Let's take a look at the draw.

WC play Richmond twice. us at the 'G, Freo, Essendon and Norf at Subi - that's five games in which they have a realistic chance, and I'll give them three of those which takes them to six wins.

Freo, also on three wins has a tougher draw but winnables for them are Brisbane at Subi at night, WC, Port at Subi, us at the 'G and Essendon at Subi. I'll give them two which makes five wins.

Richmond are the big threat but they have WC twice - at the G and Subi - Us, Sydney, Norf and Essendon at the 'G - and with the new coach factor I reckon them for three, maybe four wins, taking them to six.

We have winnables against WC, Norf, Freo, Tigers - but I reckon second time they'll be fired up - and I don't discount entirely beating Sydney or Essendon but I can't see us winning more than three - for a total of four.

Should I relax?

Absolutely zero chance of us winning more than 4 games. The club Isn't that stupid! When Bailey Is asked about this he has his standard answer 'We go out to win every game we play'. Of course you will Dean but what he fails to say Is we will list manage the hell out of this team to secure the PP.

As for the other sides It doesn't really bother me.

[True Believer 1]

I was disappointed two years ago when so many Demons wanted to lose to Carlton in round 22. I value any win especially against the arrogant Big Four clubs.

That said, most football followers would say Carlton were smart and picked up a sensational follower.

After QB, I am ready for a grim 11 weeks since I don't think we have to tank or talk about it.

Only fate can stop us getting picks one and two. The threats are Richmond, WC and Freo one of which might finish below us.

And WC, if they fail to win another game, would also score a priority pick. That is not going to happen. Let's take a look at the draw.

WC play Richmond twice. us at the 'G, Freo, Essendon and Norf at Subi - that's five games in which they have a realistic chance, and I'll give them three of those which takes them to six wins.

Freo, also on three wins has a tougher draw but winnables for them are Brisbane at Subi at night, WC, Port at Subi, us at the 'G and Essendon at Subi. I'll give them two which makes five wins.

Richmond are the big threat but they have WC twice - at the G and Subi - Us, Sydney, Norf and Essendon at the 'G - and with the new coach factor I reckon them for three, maybe four wins, taking them to six.

We have winnables against WC, Norf, Freo, Tigers - but I reckon second time they'll be fired up - and I don't discount entirely beating Sydney or Essendon but I can't see us winning more than three - for a total of four.

Should I relax?

yes relax... I think like you, so I will relax with you. I am not one ,for any reason, to tank.... but I don't see us winning more than 4 games either.... Maybe next year we will look better ( One can only hope) !!!

[Pepe Dee Pew 0]

We can call Carlton what we like but they effectively got a good chunk of their salary cap breaches back from that loss. That win effectively was the same as us receiving a salary cap penalty.

Who is the better off??

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

We can call Carlton what we like but they effectively got a good chunk of their salary cap breaches back from that loss. That win effectively was the same as us receiving a salary cap penalty.

Who is the better off??

After beating Carlton easily in R13 (?) in 2007 without much real effort, we were always a shoo in to win R22.

The big issue for me was beating the Bulldogs in R19(?). Given we had R22 in the bag it was the costly win for us.

What is done is done now.

I will be really [censored] off if we earn more than 16 points this year.

[Hannabal 4]

Absolutely zero chance of us winning more than 4 games. The club Isn't that stupid!

I completely agree. There's no way the club will end up on 5 wins. We'll be the laughing stock of the industry.

They just won't let it happen.

[Pepe Dee Pew 0]

It will be a very interesting 2nd half. The tigers basically need to tank for business survival. With the GC and WS coming in - 2 dud drafts they need to win 4 or less - that way they get a priority after round one this year and if they as expected are crap next year they will pick up a priority before round one.

So the competition for the spoon will be interesting.

If the tigers decide not to play most/some of theie older players then they will finish bottom no matter how hard the team tries.

[hillie 41]

West COast are the big threat IMO. they've put the que in the rack. really hope they get over richmond this week and that will ease my concerns a bit.

[Sir Why You Little 36,744]

I completely agree. There's no way the club will end up on 5 wins. We'll be the laughing stock of the industry.

They just won't let it happen.

We as supporters should all run out on the ground and disrupt the game, if we look like winning 5. We just cannot do it. The Club would not be able to explain it away next year.

The AFL make the Rules so use them..

[Carn dees 108]

Just thought poeple may be interested, peronally i like getting an idea for myself about these kids.

Heres a good link if you haven't yet seen.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=589241

And does any one else think the Draft and trading forum should be brought up.

Considering all the threads coming up. Just a suggestion.

[cooko 124]

West COast are the big threat IMO. they've put the que in the rack. really hope they get over richmond this week and that will ease my concerns a bit.

why is everyone so worried about west coast? they only lost to the cats by 2 goals or whatever.. they have nick nat on the way in.. they will easily get 2 more wins this year!! if anything the tigers are still our biggest threat!

[rpfc 28,079]

I just hope that everyone understands (who agrees that '4 or less' is the way to go) that Bailey will have won at most 7 games from 44 attempts, and will enter the last year of his contract.

As patience is already leaking away, I hope that everyone here who is hoping for the '7 from 44' realise that you can't just lose 54 games from 66 attempts and suddenly become world beaters (putting aside the fact that I have already predicted 12 wins in 2010).

What will earn him another contract?

When will it be renewed (end of 2009, midseason 2010, end of 2010)?

Questions to ponder...

[Swampfox 190]

Currently the teams winning less than 5 games are

North Melbourne 4

West Coast 3

Fremantle 3

Richmond 2

Melbourne 1

North Melbourne play

Adelaide

Western Bulldogs

Sydney

Hawthorn

Richmond

Brisbane

Carlton

Melbourne

West Coast

StKilda

Port Adelaide

no danger of them not winning another game as they play Richmond , Melbourne and West Coast on the run home

West Coast play

Richmond

Hawthorn

Melbourne

StKilda

Port Adelaide

Fremantle

Essendon

Western Bulldogs

North Melbourne

Adelaide

Richmond

West Coast has home ground advantage in several winnable games and they also play Richmond (Twice) Melbourne , Fremantle North Melbourne , Essendon on the run home

Fremantle play

Geelong

Collingwood

Carlton

Adelaide

Brisbane

West Coast

Western Bulldogs

Port Adelaide

Melbourne

Essendon

Geelong

Fremantle also have 3 wins and have some home ground advantage and should pull off their usual shock win to give 2 more wins as they play Adelaide , Brisbane West Coast , Port Adelaide , Melbourne and Essendon on the run home

Richmond play

West Coast

StKilda

Adelaide

Carlton

North Melbourne

Melbourne

Sydney

Collingwood

Hawthorn

West Coast

Essendon

IMO Richmond with just 2 wins is Melbournes spoiler in getting the first 2 draft picks

They have a new caretaker coach and it really depends on how much Rawlings is allowed to win

the current players maybe playing for their spot next year which can be a handicap to the team itself

Nortice they play West Coast twice so hoping they can win the home game at least

they also play Carlton which could motivate them to revenge that embarrising loss in round 1

They also Melbourne , North Melbourne and Essendon in the last game

To me Melbournes chance to get picks 1 and 2 will rest on Richmonds ability to beat North Melbourne in round 16

I doubt they will beat Adelaide or Carlton prior to round 16 and i think that last round against Essendon will be a tanking loss if they have won only 4 games

I dont expect Melbourne to win anymore than 1 more game for the last 11 rounds

Beating Richmond would be foolish on a Draft selecetion perspective

[Freak 100]

Am i the only one that doesnt really care if we dont get pick 2? i'd be more than happy if we got pick 1 + 3.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Should I relax?

No. WC will do what all the other big clubs do, and tank. They will not win more than 4 if they can help it. You give them 3 of their remaining 8 "winnables." I'd be fairly certain they'd get exactly two.

Absolutely zero chance of us winning more than 4 games. The club Isn't that stupid!

We did it a couple of years ago. There's a significant chance other clubs will tank more effectively than us. Our intention may be to tank, but that doesn't mean other coaches won't be better at it than DB.

Am i the only one that doesnt really care if we dont get pick 2? i'd be more than happy if we got pick 1 + 3.

Nope. I'm in the same camp. I'm not really all that excited about Butcher. I think he's a statisticians favourite, and he's certainly very, very good. But watching the way he moves, I'm not sure the wraps are justified. I reckon partly because in one year you have Watts doing what he does... and then you see the footage of Butcher and it's just nothing like as tantalising. I won't be cranky if we get him, but I won't be devastated if we get the next best good quality mid. In fact I think 2 really good mids would probably be more of a problem solver in a lot of ways.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

IMO Richmond with just 2 wins is Melbournes spoiler in getting the first 2 draft picks

To me Melbournes chance to get picks 1 and 2 will rest on Richmonds ability to beat North Melbourne in round 16

Beating Richmond would be foolish on a Draft selecetion perspective

If MFC win less 4 games or less then it has no 1 pick as a PP and there is not a thing Richmond can do about it.

And if Richmond do get pick 2 before us (which I doubt) and if history is correct they will p1$$ it up against the wall and pick a light frame outside ball carrier with cute skills and little future in the AFL.

[titan_uranus 24,912]

Am i the only one that doesnt really care if we dont get pick 2? i'd be more than happy if we got pick 1 + 3.

Nope. Especially if it's Richmond that finishes 16th.

[H_T 3,042]

What will earn him another contract?

When will it be renewed (end of 2009, midseason 2010, end of 2010)?

Questions to ponder...

Early to Midseason 2010 is my tip.

May the next Queens Birthday v Collingwood be our "line in the sand" game.

[LITTLE STINGA 1]

Am i the only one that doesnt really care if we dont get pick 2? i'd be more than happy if we got pick 1 + 3.

Scully and Butcher are the clear standouts ATM so until someone pops up from nowhere like Watts did last year then I definately want pick 1 and 2.

[John Dee 445]

No. WC will do what all the other big clubs do, and tank. They will not win more than 4 if they can help it. You give them 3 of their remaining 8 "winnables." I'd be fairly certain they'd get exactly two.

Wet Toast can only afford to win one more.

[e25 5]

An important factor to remember is that we started our pre-season well before a lot of teams and I expect the team to tire more as the season progresses, possibly fading significantly with quite a few rounds left, costing us some winnable matches.

[Carn dees 108]

Scully and Butcher are the clear standouts ATM so until someone pops up from nowhere like Watts did last year then I definitely want pick 1 and 2.

I disagree there are at least 10 players that are highly talented and i would be happy with 1 and 3. The only problem would be is that another key forward would do us good and would a gun mid therefor 1 and 2 would be important.

[Swampfox 190]

If MFC win less 4 games or less then it has no 1 pick as a PP and there is not a thing Richmond can do about it.

And if Richmond do get pick 2 before us (which I doubt) and if history is correct they will p1$$ it up against the wall and pick a light frame outside ball carrier with cute skills and little future in the AFL.

Richard Tambling has a brother?

[dee-luded 2,959]

Richard Tambling has a brother?

Richard Tambling has a brother? <_<

[Pepe Dee Pew 0]

See my earlier post. Tigers are now officially tanking. See their OUTS!!