Do we have a sound enough foundation?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

First and foremost, thanks to "Crompton" over at 'ology for the thread title. I thought it was a good enough question to have it's own thread here as well. I'll refrain from quoting your whole first post, as that feels a bit too much like plagiarism...

After Monday's debacle, I found myself asking the above question more than ever.

It's clear to most... most that know anything about footy, that our leaders aren't going so well. I actually think they're doing exactly the job that is asked of them in terms of teaching and preparing like professionals, however in terms of playing competitive football, they're sadly WELL out of touch, in the general sense. If anyone has any disagreement with that assessment, I'd urge you to look at the ladder.

Before I continue, I hope this thread is not taken as yet another opportunity to heap abuse on our senior players. I for one am hugely thankful that they even turn up week in week out given that they must know the majority of them will not be here when we make our inevitable ascendancy.

But for a moment, let's put them aside. We can debate on and on about whether they should be played, but regardless of your love for them, or hatred, most of them will simply NOT be the players that win the games that get us to our eventual flag.

We all get off on the cult of youth that fans have become obsessed with. We love "potential" more than results much of the time. Yet for some reason, MFC has only managed to turn potential into effectiveness in SOME cases in the last 10 or so years. Even longer if you look closely. So with that in mind, the question has to be put to DB and his match committee, BP and the recruiters and scouts etc etc...

Do we have the core yet that can take us to a flag? Many would say no, but follow up with "Wait another 11 rounds and we will." Personally though, that doesn't fill me with confidence. There are too many what ifs. What if Scully gets hurt this year? What if we win 4 or more matches? What if it turns out Scully is just too small to be the next Black? What if we have another recruiting year like the Dunn, Bate, Newton year where all of them turn out to be duds?

All those questions that we have banging around in our heads should take a back seat to the REALLY important one: We know this list will improve... possibly even improve earlier and more startlingly than we expected... BUT... Is the core list, as of round 1 2010, going to be good enough to go the whole way, and not end up with 3-5 years of finishes in and out of the top 4? Taking a look at, say, the Blues of 2009, I am not convinced. Not by a long shot. We all know they have little depth, but they have class galore, and names that should, on paper, be able to push them in line for a flag. Judd, Fev, Murphy all in their prime... and up and comers who are starting to dominate like Gibbs and Kreuzer. They should be pushing the top 2. So why aren't they? I'm tempted to say that it's because they are still feeling the effects of being the worst side of the last ten years, in terms of recruitment. They've come from SO far back, that even with a few big names in their side, they'll still fall just short of being a flag threat.

My worry is that we are the same. We have abandoned COMPLETELY the list that got us to the finals so much in the last 10 years. Some because they were old, some because they were never premiership players, but only ONE was traded in a deal that saw us get something better than what we lost.

Make no mistake, 2008 was for all intents and purposes just as bad as the Blues during their horror run. We had almost NOTHING in our list last year, and while we have recruited heavily, I'm not sure we're all the way there yet in terms of having a decent core.

My major worry is not whether we will improve. To the old heads on 'land and 'ology, the excitement is plain to see in the kids coming through... I'm just extremely concerned that we're headed to exactly where we left off in 2006. A good, but not great side.

Over to you.

[Cards13 9,117]

One week I think yes, one week I think no...

I look at our young players and think gee wizz how come they do not seem to be progressing at a rate of some of the younger players of other clubs but on the flip side they are playing for the worst side in the comp and will take longer than young players at clubs like Hawks, Pies, well pretty much most clubs with a good backbone of older skilled players we just don't have.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Fair enough Cards... but to go back to the original post:

Fast forward 3 years, when the maligned Bruce, Whelan, Robbo, Wheatley etc etc are all gone... Do you think the current list + 2009 draftees + whatever scraps we get off GC17s table in 2010 and 2011 will be enough?

The underlying theme of my post was that many have thanked the football gods that we're not bottoming out from 2010 onwards, as we would miss out on a lot of quality drafting. I'm not so sure we've been spared... not as sure as many, anyway. The two or three early first rounder you'd get on your first couple of years climbing the ladder could be the ones that add the final touch that gets us over the line on grand final day. What's the point of a COMPLETE rebuild if you're not making at least 3 GFs and winning at least one flag in that time? I'm not sure our current youth have it in them

[Roost It 1,434]

B: Rivers Warnock Garland

HB: Strauss Martin Frawley

C: Morton Grimes Davey

HF: Jurrah Butcher Sylvia

F: Miller Watts Blease

R: Spencer Jones Scully

INT: Maric, Bennell, Petterd, Bate

EMG: Wonaeamirri, Jamar, Mckenzie, Moloney

Good post and gave me reason to once again right down our squad in position.

If, and of course it's a decent sized if, these players reach their "perceived" potential then I believe we have a team capable of pushing for a flag. I know I've included Scully and Butcher but I can't see us winning more than 4 games. During the rest of the season we're going to see more and more experimentation. Like Morton in the back half, Martin playing forward, Youngsters like Strauss, Jurrah, Mckenzie, Valenti, Newton, Bail. McNamara, Buckley are all going to get some game time leaving us open to the odd belting but offering us and the coaches a glimpse of what might be.

Is our core good enough. Let's look at it and in doing so I've included "potential" because at the moment I think we have to.

Davey

Frawley

Garland

Grimes

Morton

Watts

Sylvia (On current form he belongs in our core)

You would hope that our draft picks from this year might also get into this list. But you can't deny it's a fairly impressive list of young talent.

Of course this whole exercise relies on "potential" but that's where we are at. I am remaining confident that as a club all the right boxes are being ticked.

My biggest query lies with the general, intangible qualities of this club. I'm not sure that we're upto it here. Our confidence is at a very low ebb and even with the right team installing "belief" into the club as a whole might be Dean Bailey's biggest hurdle. I hope it's not insurmountable.

[Guest sticksmorton]

[post removed by moderator]

Edited June 9, 2009 by Nasher
Please stop posting crap, ta.

[Total-Dee 2]

At the moment I see no great joy coming for the MFC. I sometimes find it hard to see all this potential talent that I read about here. I see players play well one week and crap the next.

What I do see every week is a lack of plain basic skills.

(1) Kicking to team mate (whether under pressure or not) - Our worst problem of all

(2) Bad judgement of where the ball should go next - players recieving the ball, dont know what they are going to do with it next.

(3) Handballing (execution under pressure or not)

(4) Not willing to accept the reponsibility for moving the ball on or kicking for goal - over possessing, making certainities of goals with one more posession

(5) Inconsistant performances - very few players playing well every week.

These problems need to be addressed now for a sound foundation. Even when we beat richmond we did not display the basic skills well. I believe the younger players we have do have the potential to be a good side in the future but we must fix the fundamental things that are wrong. New draft picks and the like will not solve the problem. There needs to be a concerted effort at the MFC to teach these players the basics of the game, from there something can be built.

[montasaurus 0]

Good post and gave me reason to once again right down our squad in position.

Is our core good enough. Let's look at it and in doing so I've included "potential" because at the moment I think we have to.

Davey

Frawley

Garland

Grimes

Morton

Watts

Sylvia (On current form he belongs in our core)

Right on the money there, Bar davey whats the biggest issue/weakness?

Pace - we look slow against top sides. Sylvia's form in the last 6 weeks has been fantastic but he is not a quick mid in my eyes rather a flanker that can do damage ala Ryan Okeef. Initially I was thinking a gun mid and a KPF would be the go with 1+2 at the end of the year if we get them but all of a sudden mondays game makes me think pace might be the go. Get the two best mids in the land, and cross fingers with a KPF (martin/newton/Jurrah/.......etc).

The other 4 look like being great players but pace is an issue. Blease is an unknown and who knows if his pace will now be effected. This leaves strauss out of this years group, hopefully he can continue to develop and get a go later in the year. I would have Beamer/Jones in the core group thus far as well, I think many forget how young they are.

for example we would all be singing the praises of hill and rich had have we had 1+2 and taken them this year. Watts will be good but its the middle that the game is won and lost and unfortunately this is our biggest problem.

[Rogue 585]

I think the foundation will be good enough to get us thereabouts, providing we find serviceable ruck options and one tall forward.

However, the difference between a good side and an excellent side are elite players and we don't have any.

We need some to come through - take your pick from guys like Sylvia, McLean, Morton, Watts, Pick1 - 2009 (Scully?) and Pick2 - 2009 (Butcher?).

If you think we'll unearth a couple of elite AFL players in the next few years, we'll have a good crack at a flag.

If you don't, we won't win a flag.

[CarnTheDees 52]

It is a fair point raised by DD.

IF hypothetically we were challenging for a flag in say 2013, who would be the stars of the team? Who are going to be the dominant players? It has to come from the current players who are in their 2nd-5th seasons, guys who will be 24-29 around that time and have played 80-150 games. It needs to be Moloney, McLean, Davey, Rivers, Morton, Frawley, Garland, Sylvia etc.

The Watts, Blease, Grimes age group plus any more recent additions need to be the cream on the top. They should be making cameo appearances but shouldn't necessarily be the day-in, day-out stars.

Or put it this way: If we were to be playing Grand Finals in 2013-2016, who would be our All-Australians (expect at least 2-3) and who would be our Norm Smith medallist and who would be challenging for the Coleman?

[Toot182 7]

I like the points that everyone made. As I currently don't have time to offer a fully justified analysis on our current list vs future lists, here's just another thing that people seem to be lacking from arguments... What about our opposition?

Maybe someone can elaborate on this point further, but my thoughts are along the lines of the fact a lot people have noticed we have a young list, they will learn, they will grow, they will "get better". But what about who has an old list? Who can we expect in our "projected premiership window" won't be there, because, they will be in a similar position to what we have been, considering Melbourne won't be the ONLY team affected by the GC-draft.

We have the 2nd youngest list behind Hawthorn, after that, I'm not sure... but aging monoliths like Sydney, Geelong (in 3 years... who knows?) StKilda, Port even Carlton at that stage will have a boat-load of players in the 28 y.o. range... surely this will come to affect how the Dees are going?

What do you think? (If this is too off-topic, just ignore it)

[Sir Why You Little 37,046]

It's our 2nd tier leaders on the field who are letting us down.

Once again in the Big games where so much rides. The players let the club down, as we don't have a winning culture. It will be Bailey's biggest test. If he succeeds he will be a club Legend. John Northey Got Mighty Close butb even he sadly coached us to a Record GF loss in '88

ND Had a dip, but was even less successful even though i am sure he Bled for our club.

Standards must be set High NOW-Mediocrity must not be Tolerated, by staff or players (easier said than done).

Its why Essendon and to a lesser extent Carlton can reload & return to the big stage. They do not except mediocrity.

We must get to that level of thinking. I hope the clubs administration & coaching staff have this thinking right now.

Yesterday was unacceptable, Don't give me excuses The Filths team was younger than us.

Some of our players were soft yesterday. Shape up or walk away..

[Yencks 8]

Whenever I think about this, I break up positions.

Defense: Garland, Frawley, Davey, Bennell, Warnock, Rivers, Martin, Cheney.

Midfield: Grimes, Blease, Struass, Morton, Green, Jones, (Scully).

Ruck: ????

Forwards: Watts, Jurrah, Wonna, Maric, Sylvia, (Butcher).

I don't see any gaping gaps apart from the ruck division if we take the currently predicted picks 1 and 2.

I like the look of the midfield, with the possibility of Moloney and Brock taking their game to another level hopefully... It has that promising mix of speed and toughness.

The defense already looks promising, and if jurrah lives up to what we hope for, as well as watts and butcher, I have great confidence in this side to go further than the days of 04,05,06...

[Roost It 1,434]

I like the look of the midfield, with the possibility of Moloney and Brock taking their game to another level hopefully... It has that promising mix of speed and toughness.

Moloney will be superseded by Jones and Mclean I fear is finished at this level.

[furious d 464]

We've got a grand total of 7 games from players who were 26-28y.o at the start of the season. Any club is going to struggle with that level of input from senior players still in their prime. I think there's enough talent in our 21 and unders and 24 to 26 y.o's to have a rounded list by 2013/14 but I worry about our 22-23 y.o's. That's Bartram, Bate, Buckley, Dunn, Jones, Newton, Martin, Meesen and Valenti. Martin and probably Jones are the only ones certain to be around. They'll be 25-26 in 2013. Improvement in them and at least 2 of others is crucial to our hopes in a few years.

[Toad33 57]

It is a fair point raised by DD.

IF hypothetically we were challenging for a flag in say 2013, who would be the stars of the team? Who are going to be the dominant players? It has to come from the current players who are in their 2nd-5th seasons, guys who will be 24-29 around that time and have played 80-150 games. It needs to be Moloney, McLean, Davey, Rivers, Morton, Frawley, Garland, Sylvia etc.

The Watts, Blease, Grimes age group plus any more recent additions need to be the cream on the top. They should be making cameo appearances but shouldn't necessarily be the day-in, day-out stars.

Or put it this way: If we were to be playing Grand Finals in 2013-2016, who would be our All-Australians (expect at least 2-3) and who would be our Norm Smith medallist and who would be challenging for the Coleman?

Sorry I don't have time to add all my thoughts on our list right now but I thought I would add that when doing an exercise like this we should also look at WHO we are likely to be challenging in 2013-2016!!!

It's fair to say that Geelong, St Kilda and even possibly Hawthorn will probably be burnt out shells by then. Sydney, Collingwood, Eagles, Freo, Bulldogs, North, Brisbane, Port and Adelaide could well be also, but along with Geelong, St Kilda and Hawthorn might try to top up again and again to remain competitive. Carlton need to find some depth and a backline. The Tigers could do a full rebuild or try and top up to be competitive. Essendon might continue to develop but could stall and go backwards with the retirement of their senior players, like we did? GC17 (They already sound like a disease) won't be ready.

My point is that there are a lot of variables to us getting to a grand final and winning one. And if we do we don't necessarily have to be better than the current competition leaders just better than the challengers at the time.

Take the likes of Brown, Bradshaw, Fevola, Mitchell, Black, Lloyd, Lucas, Croad, Hall, O'loughlin, Kirk, Tredrea, Macleod, Johncock, Edwards, B Johnson, Eagleton, Akermanis, Lake, Scarlet, Milburn, Ottens, Rawlings, Simpson, Harvey, Lade, Brogan and the others I don't have time to mention out of the opposition and then make an assessment of whether our list stacks up. Because most of those players WON'T be around when we start to fire.

Go Dees - Building for the Future.

[H_T 3,047]

Good post Dappa & Roost It. I love these threads.

Dappa, I've read Crompton's and yours. After losses such as these, we all re-evaluate players worth to the team and club. As Cards put it, each week, our opinions change depending almost on the direction of the wind, or in more relevant terms how competitive our team is on a weekly basis.

In terms of our foundation, I believe the building blocks are in place, the foundations are there; we're just waiting on more materials...

Look at Roost It's side below......The structure looks good (if it comes to fruition and potential becomes reality) and its something to be excited about...no doubt.

PS. Roost It - where's McLean by the way?

FOUNDATION No.1 - BACKLINE

Our side still lacks games /experience. I look at Warnock now who is 25yo. He's played 32 games for the Dees. Has the confidence to take on anyone standing at Full Back. Seems like he has been around a while. Yet, 31 AFL games?!!! Rivers is 24yo and has played 80 games.

Martin - 22yo; 17 games!

Garland - 21yo; Just 20 games!

Frawley - 20yo; 30 games!

Cheney - 19yo; 5 games!

Bennell - he turned 19 on Sunday; 9 games!

Buckley - 22yo; 21 games!

Grimes - 20yo; 6 games!

McNamara - 19yo; yet to play

Strauss - 19yo; yet to play

ANALYSIS: - The Demons through their recruitment and footy department have already taken major steps in building what looks to be a solid foundation of a strong backline. A young but notably competitive backline that will mature and play together for some time. As they say, a strong backline is the cornerstone to premiership success. By maintaining and developing these kids along with Rivers and Warnock, it should ensure stability down back as the Dees look to mould their midfield and forward structure to compliment the team. Some will mention Petterd (20yo; 20 games), although I believe from the list above - they're suited better in regards to strength & accountability.

Whelan (29yo, 144 games) is a hard back pocket player for the oppositions small elusive forwards. Been very serviceable, plays hard. Turns 30yo in December! Won't be around for the resurrection.

FOUNDATION No.2 MIDFIELD & RUCK

Many questions remain within Melbourne's future midfield. IMO this needs to be addressed first and foremost come Draft day 2009. Melbournefc desperately needs an A grade midfielder to take it anywhere it's beloved fans want for their club. A Flag. The current midfield, TBBH (to be brutally honest) won't cut it. Granted that Blease has not taken to the field yet, he would be a welcome addition in 2010 along with what looms as another very important pick or two, come this October.

The likes of McLean (23yo; 86 games); Jones (21yo; 61 games); Moloney (25yo; 80 games); Sylvia (23yo; 80 games) and Morton (19yo; 30 games) are the current engine room for Melbournefc along with pinch hitter Aaron Davey (26yo tomorrow!; 108 games) who has been 'utilised' down back and occassionally at half forward. Of course AA James McDonald the skipper who has amassed over 226 AFL games at the age of 32yo also contributes to the midfield as does stalwarts Bruce (30yo in September; 195 games) and Brad Green (28yo; 193 games).

However, I see Morton as more of a Robert Murphy type role. His height and mobility is unique, as is Bob Murphy's. Hard to match up on accross half forward, one that can float and utilise there pace to create and finish well. McLean, Jones and Moloney are all "in and unders", they're hard at it and worth they're weight in gold in tight in the hussle and bussle. Although at times they let themselves down in their disposal by hand most of the time, sometimes foot.

Sylvia whilst in form, is the X factor, great finisher, can rotate through the midfield, tackles well and can play forward, can roam the flanks - a good one for match-ups in that he is multi-dimensional. One Bailey would love to have up his sleeve. I'll say it again, 'when in form'. At the moment he is delivering.

Other than that Melbourne's midfield list options include: -

Bartram (21yo; 52 games)

Dunn (22yo; 45 games)

Bail (21yo; yet to play)

Valenti (22yo; 10 games)

Wheatley (29 yo; 132 games)

It's fair to say Dunn & Bartram are battling away. Bartram is a competitor and gives his all, he's not the best with the ball leaving his foot. He can tag and can be accountable. Dunn has been playing the run with role, optional up forward at best.

Rohan Bail is yet to be seen. Shane Valenti has yet to impress and butchered the ball numerous times in his one and only game this season. He may yet get another chance this season for obvious reasons, however, I wouldn't be surprised if his papers are stamped. Paul Wheatley, the super goal king is probably on the wrong side of 28 to be honest, hasn't played this season and we're at the half way mark with him behind the eight ball in terms of fitness. He faces an uphill battle to regain selection in the seniors, but it's not beyond him. Can be utilised down back as well accross half back although he along with Whelan now have some stiff competition. If Bailey sticks to his guns regarding the "rebuild", they might want to seek other options if given the 'nod'.

Of course down the track the likes of Grimes could impress within the midfield, however for now I included him under our Backs. I just love the way he floats accroos in front of a pack for an overhead mark. Leo Barry eat your heart out!

Overall the midfield needs an injection of streamline pace.

SOLUTION: IMO we are in need of a 'A' grade midfielder injection, we've never really had one. With the addition of Blease from injury I think it will compliment some of the current in-and-under type we already possess.

RUCKS: -

Jamar (25yo; 68 games)

Spencer (19yo; 2 games)

Johnson (24 yo; 54 games)

Meesen (22yo; 6 games)

Jamar is our most mature ruckman, he's developed and has the confidence to take on opposition ruckman and is advancing in efficiency. I thought he was surprisingly sensational against the Saints against two quality ruckmen. PJ has the body to compete, although his rucking at the stoppages......the team needs much more from him. Spencer is a work in progress, shows alot of promise and at 19yo is worth pursuing. Massive frame. Meesen....impressed in one or two games to show the club he may have something to offer.

Whilst the ruck is an important ingredient to success, this foundation for the Mfc requires a little tweaking IMO.

FOUNDATION NO.3 - FORWARDS

Almost non-existant. The AFL ladder tells the story. See "Points For"...

Miller (26yo next month; 120 games - 71 goals)

Robertson (30yo; 220 games - 410 goals)

Watts (18yo; 1 game - 0 goals)

Maric (19yo; 11 games - 7 goals)

Jurrah (20yo; yet to play)

Bate (22yo; 59 games - 54 goals)

Newton (22yo; 18 games - 25 goals)

Petterd (21yo; 20 games - 15 goals)

Jetta (19yo; 5 games - 3 goals)

Wonaeamirri (20yo; 18 games - 24 goals)

It's a sorry sight to be honest, at the moment. Whilst other than Robbo & Miller it's youthful and inexperienced and it's no wonder we've kicked the least amount in the competition. Compounding the problem is the woeful form of Robbo & Miller in front of goal. So too Newton earlier in the season. The injury to Wonaeamirri has also contributed. Leading goal scorers for the Dees at present are Bate & Sylvia.

All we can do at the moment is perhaps give Newton another go, but I'm not exactly jumping out of my skin in saying that.....for that's how much we are struggling.

SHINING LIGHTS: - The debut of Watts. The potential we "read and see" regarding Jurrah of late at Casey. Maric looks dangerous at times and will improve. Bate's form is on the up.

However, we need a stong key forward with poise in front of goal.

B: Rivers Warnock Garland

HB: Strauss Martin Frawley

C: Morton Grimes Davey

HF: Jurrah Butcher Sylvia

F: Miller Watts Blease

R: Spencer Jones Scully

INT: Maric, Bennell, Petterd, Bate

EMG: Wonaeamirri, Jamar, Mckenzie, Moloney

Good post and gave me reason to once again right down our squad in position.

If, and of course it's a decent sized if, these players reach their "perceived" potential then I believe we have a team capable of pushing for a flag. I know I've included Scully and Butcher but I can't see us winning more than 4 games. During the rest of the season we're going to see more and more experimentation. Like Morton in the back half, Martin playing forward, Youngsters like Strauss, Jurrah, Mckenzie, Valenti, Newton, Bail. McNamara, Buckley are all going to get some game time leaving us open to the odd belting but offering us and the coaches a glimpse of what might be.

Is our core good enough. Let's look at it and in doing so I've included "potential" because at the moment I think we have to.

Davey

Frawley

Garland

Grimes

Morton

Watts

Sylvia (On current form he belongs in our core)

You would hope that our draft picks from this year might also get into this list. But you can't deny it's a fairly impressive list of young talent.

Of course this whole exercise relies on "potential" but that's where we are at. I am remaining confident that as a club all the right boxes are being ticked.

My biggest query lies with the general, intangible qualities of this club. I'm not sure that we're upto it here. Our confidence is at a very low ebb and even with the right team installing "belief" into the club as a whole might be Dean Bailey's biggest hurdle. I hope it's not insurmountable.

I agree. I think when you look at our defensive options, it starts there. We're quite young back there and if the club can get what is well spoken about in October. It will not only improve our weaknesses which are evident but strengthen our core.

Remember the side is still young and developing, the occassional bad day will still happen this year....let's not panic....have patience.

[harry 1]

This is a very good question that is obviously impossible to answer. We simply don't know how good the youngsters on our list will become. What we do know is that most them have shown varying levels of potential. I guess the thing we have to ask ourselves is are we in the best position to make use of whatever potential these guys might have. Our coach comes from Port with the reputation of developing players. In addition, there has been a definite improvement in certain young players at the club. Obviously it's impossible to make a judgement from the outside looking in, but you'd have to say we're on the right track in that department. Furthermore, we now have the amongst the best facilities in the league. We used to have the worst. In a competitive competition, who knows what that extra 2-3% may've made to some of the best sides of the Daniher era. Regardless, we seemingly have the facilities to give our youngsters the best chance to develop. Finally, our club is united and getting itself on the right track financially. So, more than generations of demons players before them, these guys have the conditions to succeed. It's now up to them.

[Supreme_Demon 3,864]

It was not just the mental issues facing the Demons yesterday.

Collingwood "came to play" but Melbourne didn't. We just weren't switched on like Collingwood was...particularly in the first quarter.

Perhaps Melbourne was too caught up in the occassion of the Queen's Birthday game and the number #1 Draft pick in Jack Watts having his debut? I really hope not...but I think it may have been a factor.

I realise the 90% of football is attitude (up in the mind) and the other 10% is natural ability. But there is an issue of ability that I think we need to address...

Personally, from seeing the game I think the worst part of it was our poor skills and poor decision making. We need to seriously improve in these areas. And if players continue to make these pathetic mistakes then they should be cut from the team and players who have better skills and decision making ability need to be included.

Hopefully we can slowly get rid of the players who are not up to it in these areas of poor skills and poor decision making and replace them with players who actually DO have these skills. But of course, it is all easier said than done.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Yes.

Some hard decisions need to be made about our midfield. We need greater leg speed, quicker thinking and the ability to evade tacklers.

We also need forward structure, moreso than a forward target.

We need to become winners with a winning mentality and self belief.

We need leadership.

[Little Goffy 14,573]

Carlton

2007 4 wins. 78%.

2006 3 wins, 1 draw, 74%.

Hawthorn

2005 5 wins. 82%.

2004 4 wins. 70%.

St Kilda

2002 5 wins, 78%.

2001 4 wins. 72%.

These teams are scattered with names like Crawford, Harvey, Hayes, Mitchell, Croad, Everitt, Fevola, Loewe.

We're building a team from so close to scratch it's not funny. Given that we don't have a single champion-level veteran currently (performing) on our list, I'd say the kids are holding up well.

Rewind 20 years... a little more... find yourself the youtube video of the Demon's 'Night premiership', there was a comment in that which has stuck with me for months; 'and he kicks it forward to the Demons most dangerous forward, the teenager...'

This time round, the kids will have the facilities, football department and political stability to give them the best chance possible. Don't go putting a hex on it just because of the occassional mental crash along the way.

[dee-luded 2,959]

Do we have a sound enough foundation

No, we don't, we've got that age group hole in the list around the 26 - 28 years of age.

Not to mention that our older former elite players retired last year.

But that is exactly why we are in the position where we can rebuild the club on the best young talent in the country, by having numerous early picks @ the head of the draft table.

Patience is required here but will be rewarded, not this year will we be laughing @ our opponents, but we will enjoy the Last & widest grin.

[timD 994]

Excellent posts from particularly HT and Distance Dee. Great stuff both of you.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

It's fair to say that Geelong, St Kilda and even possibly Hawthorn will probably be burnt out shells by then.

By 2013, the Hawks will be well and truly in their prime. Their main matchwinners are barely in their twenties. Otherwise, yes, very salient points. I reckon the Blues will be a fairly regular finals contender, and we may even lose a player or two to them through trade if we're not careful.

Holy crap HT. I would comment, but that would be redundant. And time consuming.

This is a very good question that is obviously impossible to answer. We simply don't know how good the youngsters on our list will become.

Yup. I don't think we were ever going to get a polished answer here. I just wanted to see everyone's "gut-feel." Importantly, I wanted it in the harsh light shone from a demoralising loss. No sugar-coating here. No unnecessary rose-coloured glasses. Jst the trooth from those who hav teh care not to wryt a post thts not riten lyk ths. And from those who take the time to consider the posts that contain a few paragraphs or more.

This time round, the kids will have the facilities, football department and political stability to give them the best chance possible. Don't go putting a hex on it just because of the occassional mental crash along the way.

Good post. Particularly this bit.

No, we don't, we've got that age group hole in the list around the 26 - 28 years of age.

That's kind of the point though isn't it? This thread is putting aside all the older players who won't be playing a part in the side's success in 3 years. Anyone 26-28 now will be 29-31 then, and if not out, they'll be on the way.

[demoniac 1,333]

I sometimes wonder whether our lack of success since 1964 has led to a tendency for Melbourne fans to take a glass half empty approach in contexts when the supporters of other clubs that have had Premiership success would take a glass half full approach.

I think we have a very good core of inexperienced talent which will have some more quality youngsters added in the 2010 draft and a firm policy of taking no shortcuts as we seek to build to Premiership Nm 13. Our financial foundations are stronger than they have been since the 60s, we have solved the long term issues of training bases and our membership is at a record level. All the signs are positive.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,054]

The way I see it, the reason we've seen finals action but not a flag in the last decade has been that we've always had a good number of B graders, but a serious lack of A's. The thing that the premiership sides have all had is a couple of top line players capable of tearing apart the opposition single-handed.

What we have now is a very solid core group coming through. The defense is looking great and we are getting to the point where we can't play all of our mids in the same side. The great weakness in the forward line is being addressed. The big question then is whether we have anyone with the star quality we have lacked in the past. Personally, I think that the answer is yes. Colin Sylvia has shown glimpses of this in his attempts to win games off his own boot (often our only winning player on the bad days). In Watts and Jurrah I think we may have two more. If even one of them reaches the level we hope and Sylvia keeps his form going (or improving) we will be well on our way.

Even better than this thought is that we may wind up with more still should Scully become what everyone hopes he can be.

All in all I think we're well and truly on the right track.