A REASON TO BELIEVE by Westender

As an expatriate Victorian residing in the City of Churches who supports the Demons, I've been searching long and hard to find a reason to believe that my time has a chance of winning a game in this city against Port Adelaide before the decade runs out. Or even this Saturday for that matter. I haven't found any to date and when I turn to the results of recent matches between the two sides, they paint a bleak picture although the overall figures for this year don't flatter the home team either.

The statistician who works for Fox Sports One's "On The Couch" programme produced an interesting form guide in advance of the AFL's penultimate round. It was the ladder containing the placings of the 16 AFL teams over the last six rounds. Geelong and North Melbourne, who meet each other at the weekend, are easily the best-performed teams over the period from Round 15 to Round 20, each of them being undefeated. The Cats have a massive percentage indicating they have doubled the opposition's scores over that time.

At the other end of the scale we have Port Adelaide and Melbourne respectively on a 1:5 win/loss ratio. Again, the two teams at the bottom of the form ladder, face off on Saturday (for the first time this year) in a game that will surely rival Melbourne's last outing against the Eagles for sheer meaninglessness in the AFL scheme of things.

The saving grace for the game is the fact that it might draw out some Port Adelaide supporters looking for blood because, in spite of their own team's poor form in recent times, the opposition can match it pound for pound in the mediocrity stakes. They smell the blood because the Demons have a pathetic record in Adelaide, having last won a game there in Round 2, 2001 when current board member Andrew Leoncelli pounced on a ball that had been tapped in his path from a boundary line throw in by David Schwarz and goaled 30 seconds from the end to give them a famous victory by three points.

You have to go back a year further to Round 8 of 2000 to find a record of a Melbourne win against Port Adelaide at what was then Football Park.

There is however, another statistic that adds more emphasis to the club's aversion to this ground and that is the fact that the average losing margin in the eleven games played since that April 2001 encounter against the Crows has been a massive 54 points.

If ever there was a hoodoo ground for a football club, AAMI Stadium is the quintessential one for the Demons who have so often been buried of late in this fair city.

The Power has had an ugly season after making last year's grand final. They have a number of the star players in mothballs and don't appear to have much incentive to win this game against the competition's lame ducks that also have their fair share of players on the injury list.

This game promises to be one of the most forgettable contests in the history of the AFL; the result as predictable as any of game that Melbourne has played on South Australian soil since the Demons last prevailed over one of the locals.

THE GAME

Port Adelaide v Melbourne at AAMI Stadium Saturday 23 August 2008 at 2.40pm AEST

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Port Adelaide 9 wins Melbourne 8 wins

At AAMI Stadium Port Adelaide 8 wins Melbourne 2 wins

Since 2000 Port Adelaide 7 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Williams 0 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 - live at 2.30pm

RADIO 774ABC SEN

THE BETTING Port Adelaide to win $1.33 Melbourne to win $3.00

LAST TIME THEY MET Port Adelaide 25.13.163 defeated Melbourne 11.8.74 Round 17 2008 at AAMI Stadium

The game attracted 23,485 souls, most of them Port Adelaide fans wearing the latest in high fashion moccasins and most of them went away from the game feeling decidedly happy with themselves and looking the part. Chad Cornes and Brad Ebert each kicked six goals as Port romped home by 89 points after threatening to inflict a 100-point shellacking on the hapless Demons. Green McDonald Wheatley tried hard.

TEAMS

PORT ADELAIDE

Backs Toby Thurstans Alipate Carlile Nick Lower

Half backs Jacob Surjan Troy Chaplin Peter Burgoyne

Centreline Domenic Cassisi Kane Cornes Travis Boak

Half forwards Tom Logan Matthew Westhoff Danyle Pearce

Forwards Justin Westhoff Daniel Motlop Brett Ebert

Followers Dean Brogan Shaun Burgoyne David Rodan

Interchange Brendon Lade Marlon Motlop Paul Stewart Damon White

Emergencies Greg Bentley Mitch Farmer Nathan Lonie

In Dean Brogan Daniel Motlop Marlon Motlop Paul Stewart

Out Mitch Farmer (omitted) Robbie Gray (ankle) Michael Pettigrew (shoulder) Ryan Williams (omitted)

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Stefan Martin Colin Garland

Half backs James McDonald Matthew Warnock Paul Wheatley

Centreline Simon Buckley Cameron Bruce Matthew Bate

Half forwards Brad Green Colin Sylvia Austin Wonaeamirri

Forwards Jeff White Brad Miller Michael Newton

Followers Mark Jamar Cale Morton Nathan Jones

Interchange Clint Bartram Daniel Bell Lynden Dunn Adem Yze

Emergencies James Frawley Addam Maric Shane Valenti

In Lynden Dunn Colin Garland Jeff White Adem Yze

Out James Frawley (omitted) Paul Johnson (hip) Addam Maric (omitted) Shane Valenti (omitted)

Umpires TBA

WINNING FORM/LOSING FORM

Melbourne's youthful side showed a little bit in their last outing when they won a rather incredible game against West Coast at the MCG. The Eagles had four goals on the board by the four minute mark of the second quarter and finished with five for the day against a team that was hammered by 116 points a week earlier. A win is a win is a win but you can't take very much out of such a result because the visitors played as if they had their minds on other things. Therefore, one would be foolish to take the form shown by the Demons as a guide for anything, let alone a game on foreign soil where they have been consistently thumped to the tune of an average of nine goals over a long period of years.

But if the Eagles' form against Melbourne could be described as "lacklustre" then the Powers' efforts against Collingwood were equally mediocre. Their first half was on the big Friday night stage against Collingwood was competitive but, after the main break, they managed only another two goals for the night and but for a stunning display from Shaun Burgoyne, you would have been justified in describing the team's performance as "pathetic". Instead, it was just mediocre.

It's the likes of the Burgoynes however, that tips the scales in Port's favour from my point of view (although Peter B hasn't been in the best of form of late). The home side still has a few stars like Kane Cornes and the solid Brendon Lade who always dominates in the ruck against Melbourne while the Demons are a team of honest young apprentices learning their trade. The return of Dean Brogan and Daniel Motlop remove any doubts that I was having and tips the scale in the home side's favour.

So despite its winning form of last week, Melbourne isn't yet ready to provide me with a reason to believe it can win at AAMI Stadium this week. I'm tipping a Port Adelaide win by 23 points in what, for the Demons, will be a close one.

POSTSCRIPT

If there's any fairness in fixturing (which I believe there is not) then surely the AFL would have Melbourne host both the Crows and the Power next year and not make the club play any games at AAMI. After all, those teams managed to avoid away fixtures against the Demons in Melbourne. It's probably a waste of time asking because the AFL does what it wants to do and will continue to give clubs like Collingwood an easy ride to the finals with minimal travel while shunting others all over the country on a regular basis. End of rant.

TEAMS

PORT ADELAIDE

Backs Toby Thurstans Alipate Carlile Nick Lower

Half backs Jacob Surjan Troy Chaplin Peter Burgoyne

Centreline Domenic Cassisi Kane Cornes Travis Boak

Half forwards Tom Logan Matthew Westhoff Danyle Pearce

Forwards Justin Westhoff Daniel Motlop Brett Ebert

Followers Dean Brogan Shaun Burgoyne David Rodan

Interchange Brendon Lade Marlon Motlop Paul Stewart Damon White

Emergencies Greg Bentley Mitch Farmer Nathan Lonie

In Dean Brogan Daniel Motlop Marlon Motlop Paul Stewart

Out Mitch Farmer (omitted) Robbie Gray (ankle) Michael Pettigrew (shoulder) Ryan Williams (omitted)

I wonder what's going on there? I read recently that Justin Westhoff was injured and unlikely to play again this year but he's still selected. I wouldn't be surprised if Port Adelaide pull a couple of late replacements as they did last week. I smell a Melbourne upset and will definitely back the Dees at the odds on offer.

Seems odd no one is already talking about the game.

I can't see any of it, bloody Foxtel, but 23-0 doesn't sound great. Can anyone shed any light?

Now 30-6, and some people had a whinge about our win last week

poor disposal buckley in particular

not really anything to talk about at all

Basically, our poor footskills are killing us.

daniel bell is useless

That was about as bad as the Geelong first qtr, maybe worse.

There's tanking, then there's playing like a bunch of pathetic old ladies. Disgraceful.

At least pretend you're accountable

On the upside, Cale Morton's been good. He's gonna be something, I tell you what.

Cale Morton is the best player at the Melbourne Football Club.

This is both a good and a bad thing.

Us at AAMI Stadium recently

2003 R 12 Adel 73 point loss

2003 R 20 Port 14 point loss

2004 R 14 Adel 72 point loss

2004 R 19 Port 73 point loss

2005 R 15 Port 62 point loss

2005 R 19 Adel 54 point loss (when we scored 46)

2006 R 22 Adel 58 point loss

2007 R 17 Port 89 point loss

2008 R 8 Adel 76 point loss

2008 R 21 Port 36 point quarter time defecit

Since ’04, 69 point average loss

Us at AAMI Stadium recently

2003 R 12 Adel 73 point loss

2003 R 20 Port 14 point loss

2004 R 14 Adel 72 point loss

2004 R 19 Port 73 point loss

2005 R 15 Port 62 point loss

2005 R 19 Adel 54 point loss (when we scored 46)

2006 R 22 Adel 58 point loss

2007 R 17 Port 89 point loss

2008 R 8 Adel 76 point loss

2008 R 21 Port 36 point quarter time defecit

Since ’04, 69 point average loss

It's probably the worst ground for any club in the history of the game.

will anyone remember this game in 4 weeks... a small crowd 16th playing 14th in Adelaide... simple answer= no.

What i will remember is this-----

Pick 1, 17, 19 and 35 in the National draft

Pick 1 in the PSD

No doubt R.Warnock is worth around pick 10 in his true value. Proof---- Cam Wood= pick 14, Jolly= pick 14. Both were young promising back up rucks like Warnock.

So essentially...

We will have 4 top 20 picks next year.

Pick 1- Watts--- an absolute certainly to become a super key forward

pick 17 and 19- 2 quick and skilled midfielders... apparently pick 19 in this draft is like pick 12 in previous drafts...

pick 35- best available

pick 1 PSD- R.Warnock--- sets up our ruck for the next 8 years with Warnock and PJ, with Jamar and Spenser in reserve.

I wouldn't be completely against trading for Warnock (under valued)--- perhaps pick 35 + White could get it over the line??? That's better than nothing for freo i reckon....

And then we could use our PSD for the best available uncontracted player...

who knows we could get lucky and nab ourselves a prismall, mundy, thorp or Dowler....?

will anyone remember this game in 4 weeks... a small crowd 16th playing 14th in Adelaide... simple answer= no.

What i will remember is this-----

Pick 1, 17, 19 and 35 in the National draft

Pick 1 in the PSD

No doubt R.Warnock is worth around pick 10 in his true value. Proof---- Cam Wood= pick 14, Jolly= pick 14. Both were young promising back up rucks like Warnock.

So essentially...

We will have 4 top 20 picks next year.

Pick 1- Watts--- an absolute certainly to become a super key forward

pick 17 and 19- 2 quick and skilled midfielders... apparently pick 19 in this draft is like pick 12 in previous drafts...

pick 35- best available

pick 1 PSD- R.Warnock--- sets up our ruck for the next 8 years with Warnock and PJ, with Jamar and Spenser in reserve.

I wouldn't be completely against trading for Warnock (under valued)--- perhaps pick 35 + White could get it over the line??? That's better than nothing for freo i reckon....

And then we could use our PSD for the best available uncontracted player...

who knows we could get lucky and nab ourselves a prismall, mundy, thorp or Dowler....?

This is all true, but I'd still like to see us be competitive against the third worst team in the AFL.

I'll worry because we'll never win at this bloody ground, could be costly in the future

i am bloody sick of this [censored] umpiring every week

Stats say we have 10 frees, they have 5

This is good.

We now go in to round 22 against Richmond with NOTHING TO LOSE!!!

We win next week, we still get a PP.

And we will still finish on the bottom, cos our % wont overtake West Coast.

BRING ON THE TIGERS (and then trade week!)

i am bloody sick of this [censored] umpiring every week

You reckon? There are two jobs i'd like in life - one is a test umpire, the other is the head of the afl umpires I'd give them a fair kick up the backside every week -and the first thing I would do is get rid of McLaren

Tigers behind though Y_M, we have to cheer for them to win this week!

I'd prefer to win next week than this week, but why do we have to get smashed?

Worst game ever? It's sickening how bad we are playing.

White and Yze typically pathetic, sayonara you old hacks. Love White and Jamar constantly putting it down the throat of Port players.

Buckley the king of turnovers.

Our only dangerous players are Bruce and Sylvia atm.

I never want to see Newton play for the MFC again.

2004 Draft has really let us down.

Bate

Dunn

Newton

All players who are struggling at the moment big time.

I know we've seen Bate play some good footy but jesus today he looks like an abosolute hack

Will be nice to lose Yze and White, and add in Jack Watts and Robbie Warnock.

Talk about an upgrade.