The Harry Armstrong Thread

[DeeSpencer 26,266]

48 minutes ago, Mouseymoo said:

We're nuts if we don't get two legit mids this draft, or at least a genuine mid and someone who can progress to one. Slim pickings when the next batch is headlined by Sparrow and Rivers. 

If we’re drafting for now it has to be players who slot in the best 22 regardless of future role.

If it’s best available then who cares who we have left after Tracc, Oliver, Viney. We’ll have plenty of holes to fill. 

[Nascent 9,320]

8 minutes ago, adonski said:

Rivers will be a really good goal kicking mid in time. Really surprises me more aren't bullish on him!

Rivers is a genuine mid now and should be considered part of the rotation. 

I do wonder that maybe with his progress to the midfield and adding two mids in last year's draft (albiet a winger and half-forward/mid hybrid) that it may lean us towards a mid and tall combo for our two early picks.

With Tomlinson out, McDonald and May near the end and so far lack of AFL development from Adams and Jefferson, we are in need of more talented KPP. They are much harder to trade in as well.

I suspect we will go hard at a free agent or out of contract mid at the end of next year, particularly if one or both of Oliver and Petracca move on.

[mo64 5,881]

7 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Rivers is a genuine mid now and should be considered part of the rotation. 

I do wonder that maybe with his progress to the midfield and adding two mids in last year's draft (albiet a winger and half-forward/mid hybrid) that it may lean us towards a mid and tall combo for our two early picks.

With Tomlinson out, McDonald and May near the end and so far lack of AFL development from Adams and Jefferson, we are in need of more talented KPP. They are much harder to trade in as well.

I suspect we will go hard at a free agent or out of contract mid at the end of next year, particularly if one or both of Oliver and Petracca move on.

Our recent track record of trading in KPPs has been vastly superior to trading in mids. 

And when is the last time we've attracted a decent free agent?

[old dee 23,998]

18 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

It’s a ploy to make Saints take him and we get The Viking.

Langford & The Viking.

It worked with Trac. 

[Tarax Club 4,092]

1 hour ago, Mouseymoo said:

We're nuts…

if we don’t get Slim Pickens…

With apologies to Stanley Kubrick for the added poetic licence.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by Tarax Club

[Bang Bang Bang 5,839]

3 hours ago, Ugottobekidding said:

You have to weigh up how hard it might be to get a key forward in the future 

This is exactly what St. Kilda did in 2014. They saw Tom Boyd get to the Bulldogs on a massive contract and eventually they started getting too cute and they ditched Trac for McCartin. I don't think we should be overthinking the pick. For mine JVR and Disco/Petty/Jefferson/Fritsch is more than enough to build a functional forward line for the future. Our midfield stocks on the other hand are super thin outside of Windsor. Even if Trac and Clarry recapture their best form, they aren't spring chickens anymore and nor is Viney.

I am a big Jason Taylor fan but I would be pretty annoyed if we took Armstrong at 5 and he would have to be as good or better than someone like Jye Amiss to make up for it. JT's strike rate with talls over the years has been pretty average too compared to his smalls. 

[whatwhat say what 23,418]

15 minutes ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

This is exactly what St. Kilda did in 2014. They saw Tom Boyd get to the Bulldogs on a massive contract and eventually they started getting too cute and they ditched Trac for McCartin. I don't think we should be overthinking the pick. For mine JVR and Disco/Petty/Jefferson/Fritsch is more than enough to build a functional forward line for the future. Our midfield stocks on the other hand are super thin outside of Windsor. Even if Trac and Clarry recapture their best form, they aren't spring chickens anymore and nor is Viney.

I am a big Jason Taylor fan but I would be pretty annoyed if we took Armstrong at 5 and he would have to be as good or better than someone like Jye Amiss to make up for it. JT's strike rate with talls over the years has been pretty average too compared to his smalls. 

i think talls are just that much harder to evaluate

if you look at the history of the best of them over the last decade or so since the northern franchises picked the eyes out of consecutive drafts, the best tall forwards have been father-sons, academy selections, or first round draft picks

nick larkey is a complete anomoly in that regard, as was ben brown before him

perhaps north's recruiter is an outstanding assessor of tall forwards?

[layzie 34,326]

48 minutes ago, Tarax Club said:

With apologies to Stanley Kubrick for the added poetic licence.

 

 

Wasn't he drafted in 2018 Tarax?

 

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by layzie

[Bay Riffin 1,493]

54 minutes ago, Bang Bang Bang said:

This is exactly what St. Kilda did in 2014. They saw Tom Boyd get to the Bulldogs on a massive contract and eventually they started getting too cute and they ditched Trac for McCartin. I don't think we should be overthinking the pick. For mine JVR and Disco/Petty/Jefferson/Fritsch is more than enough to build a functional forward line for the future. Our midfield stocks on the other hand are super thin outside of Windsor. Even if Trac and Clarry recapture their best form, they aren't spring chickens anymore and nor is Viney.

I am a big Jason Taylor fan but I would be pretty annoyed if we took Armstrong at 5 and he would have to be as good or better than someone like Jye Amiss to make up for it. JT's strike rate with talls over the years has been pretty average too compared to his smalls. 

So you don't rate JVR, Jackson, Petty, Disco Turner ?. He failed with a high pick on Weideman back in 2015 but in the 9 years since I'd suggest he's been well above avg for talls compared to other recruiters. 

[picket fence 17,964]

2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

If we’re drafting for now it has to be players who slot in the best 22 regardless of future role.

If it’s best available then who cares who we have left after Tracc, Oliver, Viney. We’ll have plenty of holes to fill. 

ABSLUTELY AGREE BEST IN DRAFT MIDS PREFERABLY

[Sydee 4,632]

13 minutes ago, Bay Riffin said:

So you don't rate JVR, Jackson, Petty, Disco Turner ?. He failed with a high pick on Weideman back in 2015 but in the 9 years since I'd suggest he's been well above avg for talls compared to other recruiters. 

Jury still out on Adams and Jefferson 

Neither really shooting the lights out - yet 

[adonski 12,903]

33 minutes ago, Bay Riffin said:

So you don't rate JVR, Jackson, Petty, Disco Turner ?. He failed with a high pick on Weideman back in 2015 but in the 9 years since I'd suggest he's been well above avg for talls compared to other recruiters. 

 

18 minutes ago, Sydee said:

Jury still out on Adams and Jefferson 

Neither really shooting the lights out - yet 

Think that's just the nature of drafting talls full spot

Most are 50/50 bets

[58er 6,809]

5 hours ago, Nascent said:

Rivers is a genuine mid now and should be considered part of the rotation. 

I do wonder that maybe with his progress to the midfield and adding two mids in last year's draft (albiet a winger and half-forward/mid hybrid) that it may lean us towards a mid and tall combo for our two early picks.

With Tomlinson out, McDonald and May near the end and so far lack of AFL development from Adams and Jefferson, we are in need of more talented KPP. They are much harder to trade in as well.

I suspect we will go hard at a free agent or out of contract mid at the end of next year, particularly if one or both of Oliver and Petracca move on.

Your lumping of Adams and Jefferson AFL progress  as the same is lazy and incorrect. We all know of  Jefferson’s gains in the last 10 games for  Casey as he was nominated for the last 3 rounds an emergency for our AGL team. He kicked 29 goals in the season mostly in those last 10 games and was even complimented by naysayers and doubters for his genuine improvement and also his game awareness plus tackling robustly.

Granted Adams is not at that stage yet but has a contract for 2025 ( not sure of for 2026) to progress. He might see the light like Jeffo did improve quickly on his third year. 
I believe one mid from the top shelf this Goodyear plus a tall like Tauru or Armstrong as a top tall in 2024 provides balance for both attack or defence seeing some of our existing stocks can swing for both. Even Adams has played previously up forward. Certainly Tauru has also. 

And I expect Harry Sharp although a replacement primarily for ANB will be in our midfield mix of runners plus hope that Pup Briwn is given every opportunity to also get in the midfield mix which is his great forte I believe. 

So we maybe are not as far back for mids if you add McVee also. 

Let’s  wait and see, time will tell I guess. 

 

 

 

 

[Nascent 9,320]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

Your lumping of Adams and Jefferson AFL progress  as the same is lazy and incorrect. We all know of  Jefferson’s gains in the last 10 games for  Casey as he was nominated for the last 3 rounds an emergency for our AGL team. He kicked 29 goals in the season mostly in those last 10 games and was even complimented by naysayers and doubters for his genuine improvement and also his game awareness plus tackling robustly.

Granted Adams is not at that stage yet but has a contract for 2025 ( not sure of for 2026) to progress. He might see the light like Jeffo did improve quickly on his third year. 
I believe one mid from the top shelf this Goodyear plus a tall like Tauru or Armstrong as a top tall in 2024 provides balance for both attack or defence seeing some of our existing stocks can swing for both. Even Adams has played previously up forward. Certainly Tauru has also. 

And I expect Harry Sharp although a replacement primarily for ANB will be in our midfield mix of runners plus hope that Pup Briwn is given every opportunity to also get in the midfield mix which is his great forte I believe. 

So we maybe are not as far back for mids if you add McVee also. 

Let’s  wait and see, time will tell I guess. 

 

 

 

 

I phrased this poorly, I meant that Adams and Jefferson are still question marks at AFL level. Both may make it, both may not. I actually like the skills and qualities both players bring and look forward to their development. Adams in particular has a way to go but bother signed through to 26 so club obviously sees the potential worth developing.

I'm in agreement with you that a mix of tall and mid would be ideal and  given we have three picks, I see us taking two mids and one kpp.

 

[Nascent 9,320]

7 hours ago, mo64 said:

Our recent track record of trading in KPPs has been vastly superior to trading in mids. 

And when is the last time we've attracted a decent free agent?

I wouldn't worry about track record or the last time we landed a fre agent. We should just target players we need regardless of history.

My main point is that quality key position players are difficult to obtain and cost a fortune to bring across given the demand and scarcity. Most clubs are locking in their key talls to lengthy deals, as evidenced by Mac Andrew and Darcy Fogarty. Battle isn't even in the top echelon of key talls and he scored himself such a huge pay day and lengthy contract to move clubs that St kilda got a 1st round pick as compensation.  

Just by weight of numbers there are more mids/mid-sized players likely to be available come trade time. If Oliver or Petracca leave next year, given we'll have plenty of cap space to play with, I'll be disappointed if we didn't land a good midfielder in the next year or two.

[Dee Boys 849]

THE KEY FORWARD WHO ‘COPIED’ ESSENDON CHAMPION’S ROUTINE

The best key forward in this year’s draft class copied the goalkicking approach of a former Essendon champion but could instead be pulling on a Melbourne jumper next year.

Recruiters lauded Harry Armstrong for his marking this season, along with the fact that he “kicks goals, not behinds” when opportunities present. 

That has not always been the case, though, with Armstrong being forced to get to work on his goalkicking last year.

He regularly stayed back after training and worked to bed down a routine with his school coach at Haileybury College, Matthew Lloyd.

“It wasn’t always natural. It’s something I’ve worked hard at,” Armstrong said of his goalkicking. 

“It’s pretty much thanks to Lloydy, to be honest. Last year I kicked a lot of points and then I got to work on it after almost every training session with Lloydy. He showed me the technique he thought was best and I just copied it, pretty much. It hasn’t let me down so far.”

Across three games for Vic Metro during the under-18 national championships this year, Armstrong kicked 9.3 at 75 per cent accuracy.

 

In the Coates Talent League with the Sandringham Dragons he kicked 27 goals at 61.4 per cent accuracy, while there was also a 10-goal haul for Haileybury this year. 

“He’s been an inspiration,” Armstrong said of Lloyd. 

“I’ve learnt so much from him as well. Playing as a key forward, having him as your coach, there wouldn’t be too many better. He’s so invested and I’ve got so much out of him.”

A Geelong fan, Armstrong models his game on Jeremy Cameron and similarly works hard up the ground to provide a marking option. 

The 195cm forward’s contested marking stood out this year, along with his speed, athleticism and an improved ground ball game. 

Rival clubs believe Melbourne (pick five) could be first to pounce on Armstrong in next month’s draft, potentially getting in before St Kilda. 

Armstrong said he felt he had developed strongly this year after not being exposed to the Coates Talent League in 2023 due to a “random” hip infection late in the season.

“Coming in this year I was just wanting to play as many games as possible,” he said.

“The more games I played, the more confident I was in myself.”

Edited October 24, 2024 by Dee Boys

[Greg Schneider 1,004]

Wow, pretty surprising if true, maybe JT is not rating the top mids in this draft as much as we think 

[adonski 12,903]

Demonland when we land the Armstrong and Bo Allen double

[demoncat 1,601]

17 minutes ago, adonski said:

Demonland when we land the Armstrong and Bo Allen double

Me when we leave Smith and Langford on the board at 5 only to take Armstrong 

Edited October 24, 2024 by demoncat

[BAMF 4,433]

30 minutes ago, adonski said:

Demonland when we land the Armstrong and Bo Allen double

Really want the draft to be done and dusted for this exact reason. 

I've looked at the options too closely now and have my personal preferences. In reality I've watched some YouTube highlights and read some phantom drafts and don't have a clue what is the best result. 

Can't help feeling like I will be disappointed instead of happy on draft day despite knowing that Taylor will make the right decisions.

[picket fence 17,964]

37 minutes ago, adonski said:

Demonland when we land the Armstrong and Bo Allen double

Can I double down on that🤮

[Mouseymoo 368]

Someone wake me up from this nightmare 

[MurDoc516 1,529]

What's everyone got against Armstrong? 

I'd love Lalor and FOS but those guys aren't attainable. I reckon the idea of a year 4 JVR, year 3 Jefferson and year 1 Armstrong on the books gives us great optimism for a dynamic and functional forward line for many years to come. 

For what it's worth, Armstrong also looks more ready than Jefferson did.

[Nascent 9,320]

The ‘ruthless’ top-10 prospect with goalkicking great in his corner - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1248642

Looks similar to the above article but has some different details in there.

Pump up article so take from it what you will.

 

Indeed, ruthlessness is among Armstrong's biggest strengths. As well as being a straightshooter and athletic – he finished seventh in the agility test at the national Draft Combine – the Dragons prospect is also a fierce competitor.

"I believe that he has … nastiness is the wrong word – that's what Kevin Sheedy instilled into me – but he has the ability to be what I call a tenpin bowler. He takes down everyone with him and flies for his marks," Lloyd said.

[demoncat 1,601]

1 hour ago, MurDoc516 said:

What's everyone got against Armstrong? 

I'd love Lalor and FOS but those guys aren't attainable. I reckon the idea of a year 4 JVR, year 3 Jefferson and year 1 Armstrong on the books gives us great optimism for a dynamic and functional forward line for many years to come. 

For what it's worth, Armstrong also looks more ready than Jefferson did.

I can’t speak for anyone else but personally I haven’t seen enough from him to suggest that he has the competitiveness and aggression to make it as a key fwd at AFL level 

And while he’s solidly built for his age he’s not coming in as physically developed as a say a Jed Walter type, another first round pick who struggled at AFL level in his first year 

I think a lot of Dees fans are just worried about using a first round pick and ending up with another Weid (and potentially Jefferson)

Whereas we have the opportunity to draft more likely midfield types with both 5 and 9, and set our midfield up for the next decade alongside Rivers, Windsor and Tholstrup 

Edited October 26, 2024 by demoncat