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Realistic hopes for 2024

Wells 11
Wells 11
in Melbourne Demons

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I've definitely shifted my expectations for 2024 and think finals will be difficult to make given our issues.

I still want the team to go 100% to win every game, however we need to make decisions with an eye to 2025. This means playing guys like Kolt, Kynan Brown and maybe even Jefferson if his form warrants a crack before the end of the season.

Missing finals this year wouldn't be the end of the world, as it would give the players a full off season to freshen up and also give us an extra few weeks pre-season on the finalists. We would also get an easier fixture in theory given the way they structure double up games for the top 6 versus the middle and bottom 6 teams.

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    Windsor break out game of 20+ touches and a couple of goals

    Tholstrup to play remainder of the year and look the goods

    Jefferson to get a game at the end of the year should he hit a purple patch in the VFL

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    I would love for us to become a watchable side again.. besides St Kilda we are the most boring and frustrating team to watch. Focus on free, fast footy for the balance of the year. Work on what will take us forward next year. 

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    I am hoping to see Woey given a block of games and Kolt, AMW and Fullarton into the side and Petty, Chandler and Jack Billings back to Casey. I want to see the team play their hearts out win or lose, no insipid performances over the next 10 games Pleeease.!!

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    A game and percentage off 5th.  A long way to go.  Form fluctuating by the week for most sides.  Realistically, we are still well in it, for a finals spot at least.  From there, who knows?

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    The one thing that might see our fortunes change for the better is nothing to do with us.

    It's actually to do with the opposition's accuracy.

    From rounds 1 to 8 when we went 6-1, the opposition scored a combined 61.78 (43%). All but one team scored double digit behinds in our wins and teams like Adelaide and Richmond were absurdly inaccurate against us.

    However, from rounds 9 to 13 when our season has fallen off the rails, the opposition has kicked a combined 73.36 (67%). No team, that's right no team, scored double digit behinds in that run of games. That accuracy is just plain sick and unsustainable from the opposition.

    I realise Freo and Collingwood beat us fair and square but think about how many of their shots just snuck in the right side of the goal post.

    Once teams we play become more inaccurate, and they will, I expect us to win some games again. Clubs ain't going 71% against us every week like Freo and Collingwood did.

     

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      On 17/06/2024 at 01:43, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    Once teams we play become more inaccurate, and they will, I expect us to win some games again. Clubs ain't going 71% against us every week like Freo and Collingwood did.

    great post

    the only caveat i would is that if we continue to allow teams to 'walk' goals in to within 20m as we did in the flagmantle and filth combo, they more than likely will maintain that accuracy

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      On 17/06/2024 at 02:15, The Taciturn Demon said:

    It may not be if the pressure and positioning is so poor that we gift opponents easier-than-average shots at goal. 

    Spot on

    Accuracies are reflective.

    We seem to make harder work of it by way of how we enter 50...   conversely better opposition teams are straighter.

    Numbers alone are very rubbery....need context.

    I for one am not expecting the 'accuracy gods' to miraculously swing things back out way.    That's purely down to us.... in both regards.

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      On 17/06/2024 at 02:15, The Taciturn Demon said:

    It may not be if the pressure and positioning is so poor that we gift opponents easier-than-average shots at goal. 

    Agreed in that opposition's accuracy is somewhat dependent on our defensive pressure.

    But still, for Carlton, Collingwood and Fremantle to all go over 70% in accuracy, which so far above league average it isn't funny, speaks to a bit of bad luck for us.

    For example in the Carlton game, if they went at a more expected 3-3 or 4-2 instead of 6-0 in the first quarter, we probably win that game.  

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      On 17/06/2024 at 01:43, Bring-Back-Powell said:

    The one thing that might see our fortunes change for the better is nothing to do with us.

    It's actually to do with the opposition's accuracy.

    From rounds 1 to 8 when we went 6-1, the opposition scored a combined 61.78 (43%). All but one team scored double digit behinds in our wins and teams like Adelaide and Richmond were absurdly inaccurate against us.

    However, from rounds 9 to 13 when our season has fallen off the rails, the opposition has kicked a combined 73.36 (67%). No team, that's right no team, scored double digit behinds in that run of games. That accuracy is just plain sick and unsustainable from the opposition.

    I realise Freo and Collingwood beat us fair and square but think about how many of their shots just snuck in the right side of the goal post.

    Once teams we play become more inaccurate, and they will, I expect us to win some games again. Clubs ain't going 71% against us every week like Freo and Collingwood did.

     

    Interesting analysis 

    the first thing that comes to mind is that our pressure all over the ground dropped right off after 6 Rounds and it hasn’t been regained since. 
     

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      On 17/06/2024 at 03:09, Sir Why You Little said:

    Interesting analysis 

    the first thing that comes to mind is that our pressure all over the ground dropped right off after 6 Rounds and it hasn’t been regained since. 
     

    Which is staggering considering there is a new mid season interpretation on the holding the ball rule which rewards the tackler. Maybe we didn’t get the memo from the AFL. 
    Tackling is more effort and attitude based than talent. It’s a mindset. Pick the players that will and drop those that won’t. If it means playing the kids then so be it.

    Edited by Dee Viney Intervention

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    Freo and Pies both kicked 6 goals more that historical average after adjusting for pressure and position of shot.  No doubt we've had an 'unlucky' patch. But then again, Pies have won more close games in a short time than any team in history it's no longer funny.  Make your own luck. 

    I'd like to see players selected on form and fitness to start.   Petty is the lowest ranked player in the entire AFL I think and he's getting a game every week.  The football department has made a mess of things this year, albeit with a tough starting hand down 2 listed players. 

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    As the ladder stands currently, 8 of the 10 remaining games are '8 point games'. Other than North and West Coast, our remaining opponents are within 8 points of us. 6 of our remaining opponents are within 4 points or equal.

    On current form we'll lose the games and gift other teams a spot in the 8. Positively, finals are also in our own hands, not relying on others. With each win, we improve our own chances while equally hurting the chances of others. 

    Lose to either North or West Coast and you can forget about it, if you haven't already given up.

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    Mr Squiggly currently has us finishing 12th...with 12 wins. Even amother win (13) we'd be 9th ....on %

    Our work not only cut out....but stacked high. 

    To make the 8 we more than likely need 7 wins.... out of 9.

    Who really sees that happening ? What is... IS

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      On 16/06/2024 at 11:02, Jibroni said:

    Young Jefferson makes radical improvement and earns a rising start nomination.

    That would truly be an element of future delights ... one coming through with flair, ability and effect.

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      On 17/06/2024 at 03:43, beelzebub said:

    Mr Squiggly currently has us finishing 12th...with 12 wins. Even amother win (13) we'd be 9th ....on %

    Our work not only cut out....but stacked high. 

    To make the 8 we more than likely need 7 wins.... out of 9.

    Who really sees that happening ? What is... IS

    The voice of reason 

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    Not a pleasant read....   sadly hard to fault.

    We are what we are...

    Dee-cline: The midfield numbers behind staggering drop-off - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1150432

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      On 17/06/2024 at 00:33, Wells 11 said:

    verral to get a game at the back end of the season if form maintains. 

    I have seen nothing to suggest he is AFL ready. From the games I have seen where he displayed good form was against a seriously  depleted pies team. I am much more interested in seeing Fullarton get a game. 

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      On 18/06/2024 at 05:54, old dee said:

    I have seen nothing to suggest he is AFL ready. From the games I have seen where he displayed good form was against a seriously  depleted pies team. I am much more interested in seeing Fullarton get a game. 

    Or Ollie Sestan

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      On 18/06/2024 at 06:20, WalkingCivilWar said:

    Or Ollie Sestan

    Well....he was the Smokie.....

    Might as well see what any can do... Some might surprise.... might 🤞

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      On 18/06/2024 at 06:39, drysdale demon said:

    I heard somewhere today that there has been a huge demand for Gillette old style razor blades.

    So how many did you get?

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