A rapid Dee-cline: What’s gone wrong?

 

Andrew Wu

Numbers show worrying trends for struggling Melbourne.

Amid the drama at Melbourne in the past nine months, Max Gawn and Christian Petracca have been the calming presences.

In a troubled campaign, punctuated by off-field issues at the club, both have maintained their customary high standards while injuries or loss of form befell others. Neither could have done more for the red-and-blue cause.

Now, Petracca, won’t be there. For how long, not even the Demons know yet. It is not uncommon for such internal injuries to take months rather than weeks to recover from. There are no guarantees the club’s champion match-winning midfielder will even be back this year.

After 10 rounds in 2022, the talk was around whom, if anyone, could stop Melbourne from going backto-back in a Demons dynasty. Two years on, they are no better than a 50-50 chance just to reach the finals. How fans must yearn for the time when they could fret over another September straight-sets exit instead of the fear of missing out entirely or, even worse, the possibility of the end of an era.

North Melbourne great David King suspects the Dees have overcorrected in a bid to find marginal gains after the finals failures of the past two years.

But by giving up part of their contested game, a team built on grunt has lost its way to the point where coach Simon Goodwin made a glaring concession last weekend to this masthead.

‘‘When you try to make change you run the risk of losing your identity and right now, we haven’t got a clear identity,’’ Goodwin said.

The numbers are a worry. There’s enough red – where they’ve dropped away dramatically – to make any Dees fan blue. A team that prides itself on winning contest, defence and reliant on territory has fallen in each area.

The best contested possession team last year, the Dees have plummeted to 11th. They are in the bottom three for ground balls (16th) and loose balls (18th), down from third and fourth respectively. It has affected their territory game. Only West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne have a worse inside-50 differential.

A club with a generational centre-square quartet of Gawn, Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney was taken to the cleaners by a Pies midfield missing Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury and Tom Mitchell – smacked 14-6 for centre clearances despite Gawn’s ruck dominance.

As former Melbourne ruck star Jeff White pointed out on social media platform X, the Pies’ midfield set-up expecting Gawn to win the hitouts, positioning themselves in his preferred tap zones. Collingwood coach Craig McRae and his brains turned an area of vulnerability into one of strength.

‘‘When you’re going up against someone much taller and a very good player, you put a strategy in place to try and shark the taps,’’ White, careful not to be seen to be critical of the club he loves, expanded to this masthead. ‘‘Gawny is effectively hitting to six mids.

‘‘A really clear indication you get of the homework clubs do is the first centre bounce. The first two centre bounces is what I showed in the video [on X]. They didn’t go to Cameron’s dominant right hand, they flooded one side.’’

In a competition where you fall behind if you stand still, not enough Demons have improved since the historic premiership of 2021. Arguably, more have regressed than progressed.

Oliver has gone from great to merely good after a summer of tumult. Angus Brayshaw, sadly, has retired. Luke Jackson has gone home. Ben Brown can’t stay on the park. Tom McDonald, the other half of their grand final key forward pairing, is back in defence.

James Jordon, the sub in their premiership, has become a key player in his club’s flag push, but in the red and the white of Sydney. James Harmes has been offloaded to the Dogs. Both would be playing regular senior footy this year at Melbourne.

Their departures have created more opportunities for Caleb Windsor (19 years old), Judd McVee (20) and Blake Howes (21). They will improve the Demons in the long term, but the premiership window should be open at its widest now.

Tom Sparrow, Alex Neal-Bullen, Kysaiah Pickett, Jacob van Rooyen and Trent Rivers are the notable risers. Pickett and van Rooyen are the two who can become more than role players, and drive the side.

It is asking a lot, particularly of van Rooyen, who must bed down a key post in just his second year of senior football, but they won’t play finals if they do not deliver.

Pickett, though raw, has the speed to spark the Demons midfield. Christian Salem, a damaging half-back in their flag year, has the class and the damaging left boot to change the angles.

As difficult as it may seem, the Dees remain in the hunt. Victories over North Melbourne and West Coast (at the MCG) in the next three rounds would have them 9-7 when the whips start cracking – but if they cannot rediscover what made them great, Goodwin may well be flogging a dead horse. With or without Petracca.

Edited June 11, 2024Jun 11 by pitmaster
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That is Damming!

💔🤦‍♂️

Wu’s not telling us anything we don’t know but seeing all those stats laid out, it’s grim. 
 

Does anyone else find themselves avoiding footy media cause they don’t need to hear over & over what’s wrong. I watch us every single week - I KNOW what’s wrong, I don’t need David King & Kane bloody Cornes telling me

Game plan has not evolved

Like @deegirl said, we all know what's unfolding

The coaches and the players are responsible now

So the key is does Simon persist with what we are all seeing as a failed adjustment to the game plan with the hope that we are about to come out the other side? Or revert back to the old game plan? 

The players have demonstrated their views by the way they present and play the game - its clear they are not believers of the new method, so will we see a new outfit after the bye or much of the same?

 

Our depth is not is strong as we thought. Most premiership have good runs with player availability.

Brayshaw retired, Oliver and Petty no pre season, Smith out, Melksham knee. And now Tracc out.

JVR 31 GAMES, McVee 38, Windsor 13, Laurie 9, Howes 11, Turner 8. Not a lot of experience.

Chandler, 46 games has not set the world on fire. Billings just a fill in. McAdam hardly ever on the park at the Crows.

A slump was always going to happen. We need to get some games into Tholstrup, Sestan and Brown to see what they can offer

If we want to stay in the window we need to get a decent free agent in and then recruit wisely via the draft. We may not make the 8.

He's not wrong.

Trac going out puts more pressure on the game plan than ever.  What will Goody do without an AA mid?  Real pressure for everyone to step up now

We simply must bury West Coast at the G, anything short of a ten goal win after what they did to us in Perth just isn't good enough.

1 minute ago, Scipio said:

We simply must bury West Coast at the G, anything short of a ten goal win after what they did to us in Perth just isn't good enough.

Pipe dream. Id encourage everyone to brace themselves for a turbulent 2nd half of the season. 

The players are 1-2 losses away from completely checking out. Once finals become mathematically improbable, watch the freefall. Our soft underbelly will be exposed. 

The football department is responsible for our downfall. From coaching, strategy ,to list management, player management and fitness. They can't get out of their own way, in terms of bad decisions and stupid ideas..

It feels like the team is over coached, and maybe over trained. The players are so tense every week. You can see it. They play tence. The bigger the game the more tence we look. Its no wonder we never start well, or kick accurately.

Its all incredibly frustrating, because we should be much better than we are.

 

Melbourne players are clueless as to what to do.

There is confusion from the coaching staff clearly - pretty sure he's not telling them to play like this.

We are so Max dominant that we are easy to coach against. Players continually dump kick to Max despite us have free players around. 

Viney has tunnel vision and simply cannot see free players around him. Is possibly the worst for bombing into our fwd50

Oliver is currently a liability. I'd play him out of the fwd 50. Can't do any worse.

Fritsch is insanely frustrating with his poor/lame efforts and lack of physicality. He also has blinkers and misses easy hit up kicks.

Something is wrong with May His positioning the last few weeks has been terrible. Teams are forcing him up the ground. He looks lost without Lever, can't bend over and is playing in pain. He has become fumbly.

McVee has lost his drive. Howes has become pedestrian. Billings is slow of mind and of foot. Turnover city. 

Pressure applied has fallen to its lowest this year. The players are cooked in the mind and bereft of confidence.

The gameplan has fallen apart. Cant see myself going /watching for the rest of the year. Its too emotionally draining.

Goodwin will be Houdini if he can turn this rotting ship around.

4 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Melbourne players are clueless as to what to do.

There is confusion from the coaching staff clearly - pretty sure he's not telling them to play like this.

We are so Max dominant that we are easy to coach against. Players continually dump kick to Max despite us have free players around. 

Viney has tunnel vision and simply cannot see free players around him. Is possibly the worst for bombing into our fwd50

Oliver is currently a liability. I'd play him out of the fwd 50. Can't do any worse.

Fritsch is insanely frustrating with his poor/lame efforts and lack of physicality. He also has blinkers and misses easy hit up kicks.

Something is wrong with May His positioning the last few weeks has been terrible. Teams are forcing him up the ground. He looks lost without Lever, can't bend over and is playing in pain. He has become fumbly.

McVee has lost his drive. Howes has become pedestrian. Billings is slow of mind and of foot. Turnover city. 

Pressure applied has fallen to its lowest this year. The players are cooked in the mind and bereft of confidence.

The gameplan has fallen apart. Cant see myself going /watching for the rest of the year. Its too emotionally draining.

Goodwin will be Houdini if he can turn this rotting ship around.

Agree with everything about this.

Well summed up.

The mid-season break has come at the best possible time. It at least gives us an opportunity to arrest whatever rot has set in here. We will then hopefully work back into some kind of form against a lowly opponent.

We are truly at the crossroads here and I look forward to seeing who steps up to respond.

The concern for me is that this faltering gameplan demonstrates that Goodwin is simply a poor strategist. He is not a dynamic thinker and doesn't appear able to adapt to changing trends or recognise our vulnerabilities - he seems to prefer a 'set and forget' model of success. We've seen large, clumsy, broad strokes to arrest our downfall; such as the recruitment of Grundy, or this latest gameplan, but then then there is the recruitment of middling, ageing performers whose presence give us no indication of how the list will be revitalised or how we will be playing differently. They appear to have been recruited simply as depth.

Goodwin deserves enormous credit and gratitude for the list, culture, and strategy which led to 2021. But at this point in time, I have grave doubts over his ability to resurrect the 'era'. We'll see.

Edited June 12, 2024Jun 12 by wisedog

1 minute ago, wisedog said:

The mid-season break has come at the best possible time. It at least gives us an opportunity to arrest whatever rot has set in here. We will then hopefully work back into some kind of form against a lowly opponent. Having said that, we could also lose - in which case finals are highly unlikely and it probably wouldn't matter to most if we did scrape in.

We are truly at the crossroads here and I look forward to seeing who steps up to respond.

The concern for me is that this faltering game plan demonstrates that Goodwin is simply a poor strategist. He is not a dynamic thinker and doesn't appear able to adapt to changing trends or recognise our vulnerabilities - he seems to prefer a 'set and forget' model of success. We've seen large, clumsy, broad strokes to arrest our downfall; such as the recruitment of Grundy, or this latest gameplan, but then then there is the recruitment of middling, ageing performers whose presence give us no indication of how the list will be revitalised or how we will be playing differently. They appear to have been recruited simply as depth.

Goodwin deserves enormous credit and gratitude for the list, culture, and strategy which led to 2021. But at this point in time, I have grave doubts over his ability to resurrect the 'era'. We'll see.

Goodwin is not alone in all of this - his coaches need to step up too, and offer strategies and advice

Unless there's any issue there......

This year was always our last chance but we have less depth this year and so we need everything to go right. The competition is very even apart from the Swans.

Getting more from Oliver and Viney is the key for the rest of the season. If we start winning centre clearance and kicking accurately, our form can turnaround quickly.

The main adjustment we need to make from a game plan perspective is our defensive press needs to be more aggressive when we lose possession inside 50. 

I think we need to see Rivers go into the midfield, especially now Petracca is injured. 

3 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

Goodwin is not alone in all of this - his coaches need to step up too, and offer strategies and advice

Unless there's any issue there......

That's very fair. Goodwin is not an autocrat and certainly appears open to advice and counsel from other parties. So yes, we should absolutely look at the support around him. 

We have lost A Grade Players since ‘21, and have replaced them with VFL standard Players 

The challenge i see is that we built our list for the contest/defense/chaos game plan, and if we move away from that it's difficult to see how it can work without a re-build or re-set, we simply don't have the high quality ball users that teams like Collingwood and Sydney have. I think the decision to draft Windsor reflects a little bit of an admission of this. 

if we are going to move in that direction i think we have to look at potentially trading one of our gun mids to re-balance the list. but that relies on there being someone on the market that suits our needs more, and one of them that we'd be willing to part with having any significant trade value

53 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Pipe dream. Id encourage everyone to brace themselves for a turbulent 2nd half of the season. 

The players are 1-2 losses away from completely checking out. Once finals become mathematically improbable, watch the freefall. Our soft underbelly will be exposed. 

Hmmnn .... 
Where have I seen this before 😕

We’re not gone for the season yet while I agree it looks grim perhaps one good victory could turn it around…Carlton got a soft kill last season against Gold Coast and didn’t look back from there. We still have talent it’s not like the list is suddenly North from 3 years ago level

15 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

This year was always our last chance but we have less depth this year and so we need everything to go right. The competition is very even apart from the Swans.

Getting more from Oliver and Viney is the key for the rest of the season. If we start winning centre clearance and kicking accurately, our form can turnaround quickly.

The main adjustment we need to make from a game plan perspective is our defensive press needs to be more aggressive when we lose possession inside 50. 

I think we need to see Rivers go into the midfield, especially now Petracca is injured. 

On your last point, I agree about Rivers. We now need to get our best players & decision makers in and around the ball. Rivers, Bowey, Salem - all up in the coal face. We can plug holes down back, but if we ain't doing anything to get the ball moving forward with any purpose or frequency...we're stuffed.

I fully expect us to bounce back, make finals, and then lose to Essendon in week 1.

6 minutes ago, sisso said:

We’re not gone for the season yet while I agree it looks grim perhaps one good victory could turn it around…Carlton got a soft kill last season against Gold Coast and didn’t look back from there. We still have talent it’s not like the list is suddenly North from 3 years ago level

Was just thinking about Carlton last year too. 

They were bottom 4 this time last year, and as they kept losing each week the acid was poured on them and they didn’t respond. 

But they got a soft kill vs Gold Coast and then found their passion and identity again. 

I know plenty on here will say it’s pointless to compare with other sides in previous seasons but I do use them last year as an example of how, with the right application, terrible form can be turned around (and we have 3 more wins at this point of the season than they did).

5 minutes ago, praha said:

I fully expect us to bounce back, make finals, and then lose to Essendon in week 1.

This is exactly what I am expecting out of this year too! Gawn and Petracca (after fighting to get fit) both do their knees in the game and miss all of 2025