PODCAST: Rd 08 vs Geelong

[Deestar9 1,424]

10 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I've just been travelling up from Townsville to Cairns via train - reflecting on albums by The Go Betweens, songs by Midnight Oil and Gangajang (see if you can get the reference)...

Anyway... why do we actually believe we a superior in our fitness, and why would Melbourne be in fitter than any other club (aside from injuries)... anyone want to explain it to me?*

 

*sometimes I like to ask questions I think I know the answer to, just for the conversation it provides.

Not sure if this is why but on TMac’s excellent interview with Cornes & Buckley he said that we do more “high impact” running rather than long distance so this probably gives us an edge when moving the ball & also “holding the ball” decisions …

[Webber 10,178]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

only 33 stoppages compared to a normal games 50-60 and some games being up to 70 (65 in our final v Collingwood). There was a lot of high speed running (both teams over 45km which is huge).

That’s extraordinary. No wonder the game felt so unrelenting at the time. Btw, what  is the ‘45km’ you refer to? 

[Engorged Onion 9,392]

14 minutes ago, Webber said:

That’s extraordinary. No wonder the game felt so unrelenting at the time. Btw, what  is the ‘45km’ you refer to? 

45km in totally /22people  = 2km per person??

[Watson11 1,910]

24 minutes ago, Webber said:

That’s extraordinary. No wonder the game felt so unrelenting at the time. Btw, what  is the ‘45km’ you refer to? 

The afl app has the Tracker page and it’s the high speed running (definition is running at >18km/hr).

I got interested in it a few years ago after listening to Burgo and Brukky’s podcasts where Burgo spoke about our 2021 gold coast game as being off the charts as far as output went (he said 20% higher than anything else).  I found on the afl tracker we had 48km of high speed running that day, compared to an average of around 40km and next best of 42km.  I figure high speed running is the best indicator of work rate and fitness and have kind of tracked it ever since.

 

[Watson11 1,910]

50 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

I've just been travelling up from Townsville to Cairns via train - reflecting on albums by The Go Betweens, songs by Midnight Oil and Gangajang (see if you can get the reference)...

Anyway... why do we actually believe we a superior in our fitness, and why would Melbourne be in fitter than any other club (aside from injuries)... anyone want to explain it to me?*

 

*sometimes I like to ask questions I think I know the answer to, just for the conversation it provides.

If you look at our high speed running on the afl tracker app, we basically never get outrun (we do but it’s extremely rare).  Interestingly, against Geelong it was one of the very few times they ran 46km at high speed to our 45km.

[Lucifers Hero 37,207]

52 minutes ago, binman said:

As i noted on the pod im convinced goody had a plan to run them ragged and exploit our fitness advantage. 

But I hadn't considered patiently kick it around the arc could be part of the strategy to reduce stoppages to expoit our fitness advantage.

I have a different view for us kicking the ball around the f50m arc.  Usually the positioning of our zone defence in the formation in the diagram (thanks @Chook ) below is to lock the ball inside our f50. 

Geelong have started using the old 'flooding' opps fwd line trick then running it out thru the opp weak defensive structures.  Note there are about 16 Geelong players flooding our f50.

I reckon kicking the ball around the arc was to let Geelong flood in our f50, set up our 7 player defensive formation around the arc thereby trapping Geelong players in our F50 and stopping them running anywhere toward their goal, rather than a strategy to run them ragged.  They had nowhere to run! 

We didn't need to outrun them as we were on their goal side.  tbh I didn't particularly notice times when they ran aggressively or where we out ran them.   What I saw was them having to stop if they escaped the trap as there was hardly anyone forward for them.  If any of their players ran out of the trap one of our players picked them up allowing Lever and May to go back closer to goal.

I reckon few stoppages was simply a by product of us centering the ball, our good marking i50 and poor kicking by both sides.

To me it looked like both sides ran the game out well so not sure we had a noticeable fitness advantage.

ps.  I haven't heard the podcast.  Just my thoughts on what I saw.

 

[At the break of Gawn 3,572]

Hi @binman

In the podcast you mentioned that scores from the back half were less important and that front half scoring from turn-over was becoming more important. According to Daniel Hoyne, 5 of the last 6 premiers were no.1 in scores from the back half. The only one not number 1? Melbourne in 2021. We should be concentrating more on this rather than scores in the front half/territory game which have been a bit of a fallacy for us. 

Note, Carlton are terrible at scoring from the back half which is why once Collingwood won the territory, Carlton struggled to score. 

 

[binman 38,766]

7 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Hi @binman

In the podcast you mentioned that scores from the back half were less important and that front half scoring from turn-over was becoming more important. According to Daniel Hoyne, 5 of the last 6 premiers were no.1 in scores from the back half. The only one not number 1? Melbourne in 2021. We should be concentrating more on this rather than scores in the front half/territory game which have been a bit of a fallacy for us. 

Note, Carlton are terrible at scoring from the back half which is why once Collingwood won the territory, Carlton struggled to score. 

 

I don't think I did.

Points from defensive half is the key metric I have been using all season as the key indicator in my red and blue print to assess if our new back half transtion and turnover method is on track

In fact i also discussed how curious it was that so many of our scoring chains started from our d50 (as did the cats, who remarkably scored 44 of their 66 points from their defensive half)- almost twice our season average.

[binman 38,766]

17 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

I have a different view for us kicking the ball around the f50m arc.  Usually the positioning of our zone defence in the formation in the diagram (thanks @Chook ) below is to lock the ball inside our f50. 

Geelong have started using the old 'flooding' opps fwd line trick then running it out thru the opp weak defensive structures.  Note there are about 16 Geelong players flooding our f50.

I reckon kicking the ball around the arc was to let Geelong flood in our f50, set up our 7 player defensive formation around the arc thereby trapping Geelong players in our F50 and stopping them running anywhere toward their goal, rather than a strategy to run them ragged.  They had nowhere to run! 

We didn't need to outrun them as we were on their goal side.  tbh I didn't particularly notice times when they ran aggressively or where we out ran them.   What I saw was them having to stop if they escaped the trap as there was hardly anyone forward for them.  If any of their players ran out of the trap one of our players picked them up allowing Lever and May to go back closer to goal.

I reckon few stoppages was simply a by product of us centering the ball, our good marking i50 and poor kicking by both sides.

To me it looked like both sides ran the game out well so not sure we had a noticeable fitness advantage.

ps.  I haven't heard the podcast.  Just my thoughts on what I saw.

 

That makes sense lh.

It could be a combo of those three strategies - keep the ball live and in motion (an outcome of which is reducing stoppages) to sap them, nor feed their interceptors and trapping then inside our arc (which would also assist gassing them because to get out they have to chain the ball out rather than their preferred option of kicking long to a contest).

I'm pretty confident we had a strategy to gas them using uncontested marks to keep the ball in motion.

And as Rossmillon noted earlier in this thread:

Stevens Mays post match interview on Fox footy was quite enlightening.  He said when asked about the game plan in the first half that there was a strategy to take some uncontested marks and make them defend for longer to “take some energy out of their forwards”.

We definitely ran the game out better - as we should given we had a ten day break into the game.

One is our last quarter pressure was our highest for the game, a crazy good 193.

Interestingly so was theres, but it was 12 less than ours - the biggest differential of any quarter.

Another possible indicator is we kicked 5 straight. They kicked 3.2 - not miles off, but those 2 points were Cameron in front of goals and he looked completely cooked.

[binman 38,766]

1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

The afl app has the Tracker page and it’s the high speed running (definition is running at >18km/hr).

I got interested in it a few years ago after listening to Burgo and Brukky’s podcasts where Burgo spoke about our 2021 gold coast game as being off the charts as far as output went (he said 20% higher than anything else).  I found on the afl tracker we had 48km of high speed running that day, compared to an average of around 40km and next best of 42km.  I figure high speed running is the best indicator of work rate and fitness and have kind of tracked it ever since.

 

I occasionally look at the tracker data @Watson11. But in isolation I'm not sure what it's telling me and unlike you havent tracked it to see if there is pattern, or how one week compares to another or in aggregate.

As i noted on the pod. I thought this data was really interesting. 

The top 5 players for speed in defence, which is defined as running when the opponents have the ball.

It really gives a sense of how hard we work defensively and how much work our our all team defence demands.

I think it also supports your point about how elite we are in term of running power.

Edited May 8 by binman

[Watson11 1,910]

1 hour ago, binman said:

One is our last quarter pressure was our highest for the game, a crazy good 193.

Interestingly so was theres, but it was 12 less than ours - the biggest differential of any quarter.

Another possible indicator is we kicked 5 straight. They kicked 3.2 - not miles off, but those 2 points were Cameron in front of goals and he looked completely cooked.

I know you spend quite a bit of time on the pressure gauge.  Often it matches what you see but the second quarter to me was frenetic, yet both sides had low pressure ratings.  I didn’t realise the no stoppages until later, but I wonder if you need to assess pressure and stoppages together as high stoppages games probably naturally have more of what is defined as pressure acts.  The second quarter looked high pressure to me, but it wasn’t according to the stats.

Our pressure gauge against Brisbane was almost the same as Saturday but it just seemed we were miles off against Brisbane.  Interestingly, there were a lot more stoppages against Brisbane.

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,250]

Another great pod fellas — well done and thank you!

@binman you’re ever so lucky you didn’t hear FF post match, whatever you heard re Dermie — multiply it by 3 & you’ll still likely leave it short in terms of aggravating-moronic beyond-a-joke-idiocy — the man clearly has some sort of issue with the club, has always minimised our good years and wins at every turn and this week to suggest Geelong ‘beat themselves’ by not taking their chances is not only infuriating, but it’s downright silly & contrite! This, from an guy who suggests Goody’s comments on expected score are somehow juvenile.. yet when it suits him, he will use it (despite fact he was way off as usual for this game had us by 22 on expected score). 
 

George — to suggest Billings was not only going to be definitively dropped, but to add the ‘why’ as being fact he cannot kick 40 after one errant shot at goal, is absolutely beyond-the-pale! Billings has the yips in front of goals but he was not brought in to kick goals, that’d be a bonus. He was brought in for his use of angles in his short-kicking, poise, and strong ability to hit those short passes i50. Fact he remains in the side this week is proof. Fact one of his direct competitors in Laurie was (unfortunately) omitted is a further tip in the hat of Binman who correctly stated JB plays his role, and whilst the yips are frustrating to watch, I think ruling a player out like that and dismissing them without the correct information is a little unfair, to be fair!

 

I think perhaps it’s nearly time to get a few Demonlanders to launch a coordinated campaign in the thankless task of appealing to the more sensical minds of the AFL media, be it Whateley, Hoyne , Montagna or god forbid Cornes or King, Russell (also seems to hate us) in a hearty — albeit fruitless — task in terms of how expected score actually works, what stats are actually relevant in the modern game, or any of the 20+ other continuously false truths or misnomers they spew out in reference to our club.. I’ve had a gut flu and though I try to ignore it, even then you’re bound to hear unhealthy doses of the irksome diatribe fairly consistently.. don’t get me started on Brad Johnson - what a joke he is, how can ANYONE take a syllable he utters with a modicum of seriousness, or Dermot, Taylor even Nate Jones of late — it’s clearly aggressive contagion that’s got no vaccination or cure in sight!

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,250]

Shoutout to Terrance of Belgium as well, that TMac interview by Corn & Bucks was indeed insightful — sounds like a man who’s just wrapped to be back in the frame well-to-week!  

[Tolstoys Nudge 1,250]

3 hours ago, binman said:

I occasionally look at the tracker data @Watson11. But in isolation I'm not sure what it's telling me and unlike you havent tracked it to see if there is pattern, or how one week compares to another or in aggregate.

As i noted on the pod. I thought this data was really interesting. 

The top 5 players for speed in defence, which is defined as running when the opponents have the ball.

It really gives a sense of how hard we work defensively and how much work our our all team defence demands.

I think it also supports your point about how elite we are in term of running power.

Fantastic data mate 

[binman 38,766]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I know you spend quite a bit of time on the pressure gauge.  Often it matches what you see but the second quarter to me was frenetic, yet both sides had low pressure ratings.  I didn’t realise the no stoppages until later, but I wonder if you need to assess pressure and stoppages together as high stoppages games probably naturally have more of what is defined as pressure acts.  The second quarter looked high pressure to me, but it wasn’t according to the stats.

Our pressure gauge against Brisbane was almost the same as Saturday but it just seemed we were miles off against Brisbane.  Interestingly, there were a lot more stoppages against Brisbane.

You're right, the reason why the pressure rating was low in the second was the lack of stoppages and how often the ball was in motion with us hitting up leads etc.

That's because of how they calculate the pressure rating which is:

• Pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts.
• Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2.

So with low low stoppages, ball in motion and lots of uncontested marks there is fewer opportunities for the pressure acts that really drives the number up - tackles, bumps, contested possessions etc

But as you say it was definitely frenetic in that quuater. And it definitely didn't feel low pressure.

I didn't realise the stoppage numbers were so low and you're right it's a good stat to consider when trying to explain anomalous pressure rating.

Out of interest here is the pressure numbers for the dogs game, where we had 141 uncontested marks:

 

Quarter	For	Against
1	175	166
2	171	164
3	195	162
4	167	155
Match	177	162

And from the cats game (117uncontested marks):

Quarter	For	Against
1	183	173
2	161	158
3	171	165
4	193	181
Match	176	170

[WheeloRatings 964]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I know you spend quite a bit of time on the pressure gauge.  Often it matches what you see but the second quarter to me was frenetic, yet both sides had low pressure ratings.  I didn’t realise the no stoppages until later, but I wonder if you need to assess pressure and stoppages together as high stoppages games probably naturally have more of what is defined as pressure acts.  The second quarter looked high pressure to me, but it wasn’t according to the stats.

Our pressure gauge against Brisbane was almost the same as Saturday but it just seemed we were miles off against Brisbane.  Interestingly, there were a lot more stoppages against Brisbane.

The low number of stoppages in the second quarter would definitely explain the low pressure. The ESPN Footy podcast (with Champion Data) have talked about pre-clearance pressure being much higher than post-clearance pressure. Here is an excerpt from an article from 2018:

"Champion Data measures the statistic in two ways — pre-clearance pressure and post-clearance (or general play) pressure.

"It’s easier to apply pressure at stoppages by virtue of the fact it’s a congested area.

"But squeezing the opposition in open play is the real art form, which is why the AFL pressure rating average pre-clearance is 256 and post-clearance is only 164."

[binman 38,766]

7 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

The low number of stoppages in the second quarter would definitely explain the low pressure. The ESPN Footy podcast (with Champion Data) have talked about pre-clearance pressure being much higher than post-clearance pressure. Here is an excerpt from an article from 2018:

"Champion Data measures the statistic in two ways — pre-clearance pressure and post-clearance (or general play) pressure.

"It’s easier to apply pressure at stoppages by virtue of the fact it’s a congested area.

"But squeezing the opposition in open play is the real art form, which is why the AFL pressure rating average pre-clearance is 256 and post-clearance is only 164."

I asked in another thread @WheeloRatings, but you may not have seen it

Are you able to get hold of the post clearance contested possession numbers?

Edited May 8 by binman

[WheeloRatings 964]

1 minute ago, binman said:

I asked in another thread whello, but you may not have seen it

Are you able to get hold of the post clearance contested possession numbers?

I did see it and I did actually respond 😊 I included some numbers in the post with several qualifiers - let me know if you'd like me to dig deeper or cut the data a different way.

 

 

[binman 38,766]

5 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I did see it and I did actually respond 😊 I included some numbers in the post with several qualifiers - let me know if you'd like me to dig deeper or cut the data a different way.

 

 

@WheeloRatings Oh, sorry I completely missed that. 

Thanks so much.

I was actually thinking in terms of week to week numbers to include in the stats file, but if it's not readily available don't worry.

And as per my comments below may actually not be that relevant for us this season.

But those tables are fascinating. What an amazing drop off in both stars, particularly post clearance possessions.

Hardwick had always said post clearance contested possession is the most important stat. Well did when he coached the tigers. 

But I have to assume from those numbers that it is important for the forward half, territory model he developed and we adapted.

We were number 1 for that stat in 21, 22 and 23.

But are only 12th this year. Surely that's a reflection of our changed method?

Curiously the blues, after getting the transition, turnover game working last year, have reverted to a forward half model.

Ditto for hawks who i heard on christin.say on the espn pod they ste number one for ground ball gets this year by a mile.

No coincidence the blues and hawks are one and two for pccp this year.

[Binmans PA 26,292]

Finally catching up on the podders now.

Just a note for the boss, ground ball gets are really not a good indicator for us in 2024.

I'd explain it as potentially resulting in the deeper lying defensive set up and less of an emphasis on winning clearance.

[Demonland 65,917]

2 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Finally catching up on the podders now.

Just a note for the boss, ground ball gets are really not a good indicator for us in 2024.

I'd explain it as potentially resulting in the deeper lying defensive set up and less of an emphasis on winning clearance.

Organisational correction: @binman is your direct manager. I am the boss. 😜

[Chook 14,602]

27 minutes ago, Demonland said:

Organisational correction: @binman is your direct manager. I am the boss. 😜

So that's why you're so keen to avoid litigation as a result of things posted on this site!

[Demonland 65,917]

12 hours ago, Chook said:

So that's why you're so keen to avoid litigation as a result of things posted on this site!

I'm very prudent with my corporate responsibility and everything is in my wife's name.