The Pick 1 Thread

[bing181 8,226]

11 hours ago, No10 said:

North need our 6 and 11 to make the deal they want with WC.

Not necessarily, perhaps only one of those. 2 + 6, or 2 + 11 + 15 (or one of their late first rounders). Both v. good for WC I would have thought in terms of rebuilding.

[Gator 16,921]

17 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

I reckon they’d be after the best player in the draft. If Curtin is genuinely outside the top few I don’t think being from WA would be a primary consideration. I’d want the best player, but that’s just me. 

Then they won't trade pick one.

But there's a view that they need more than pick one plus their second pick of 23 considering the state of their list.   And that they're concerned Reid might fly the coup after 3 years, but that's just supposition. 

Some West Coast fans think that if they were able to manufacture pick 2 plus our pick 6 that they'd take McKercher with pick 2 and Curtin at pick 6 who's likely to be available at that pick.  It's all guess work...

[Slartibartfast 16,021]

33 minutes ago, Gator said:

Then they won't trade pick one.

But there's a view that they need more than pick one plus their second pick of 23 considering the state of their list.   And that they're concerned Reid might fly the coup after 3 years, but that's just supposition. 

Some West Coast fans think that if they were able to manufacture pick 2 plus our pick 6 that they'd take McKercher with pick 2 and Curtin at pick 6 who's likely to be available at that pick.  It's all guess work...

I agree. They need a pick in the first 3. 

[Deebauched 1,219]

Id like to see a list of the top 20 AFL players who were picked way down the draft betweeen 40 and 80.

Garry Lyon was talking about it with with one of those Data guys.

[Mach5 4,490]

2 hours ago, bing181 said:

Not necessarily, perhaps only one of those. 2 + 6, or 2 + 11 + 15 (or one of their late first rounders). Both v. good for WC I would have thought in terms of rebuilding.

Ah, but why would we part with 6 or 11 if we weren’t getting 2 or 3 in return..?

Unless we would be.

I just don’t see North being willing to part with 2 AND 3 to get pick 1. I know I’ve proposed we pivot to engage with North but I don’t see it working out. 
I think we’ll compete with them for Geelong’s pick 8.

[McQueen 17,864]

1 hour ago, Deebauched said:

Id like to see a list of the top 20 AFL players who were picked way down the draft betweeen 40 and 80.

Garry Lyon was talking about it with with one of those Data guys.

 

Ethan?

[bing181 8,226]

2 hours ago, Mach5 said:

I think we’ll compete with them for Geelong’s pick 8.

Can't see Geelong or anyone inside the top 10 wanting to move lower.

Agree re North, was just looking at what might get WC to move. But in reality, I don't see any of these scenarios playing out. No one is prepared to pay enough, even if they have the picks.

Edited October 26, 2023 by bing181

[jnrmac 19,324]

8 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

Everyone assumes WCE want Curtin.  Where is the evidence?

Didn't they swap out Pick 2 for 8 and 12 last year. They ended up taking the two local lads Ginbey and Hewitt

 

[jnrmac 19,324]

2 hours ago, Deebauched said:

Id like to see a list of the top 20 AFL players who were picked way down the draft betweeen 40 and 80.

Garry Lyon was talking about it with with one of those Data guys.

• Pick 56 Jordan Dawson, James Sicily, Dougall Howard, Ryan OKeefe
• Pick 43 Adam Goodes
• Pick 42 Bacher houli, Jack Steven, Martin Pike, 
• Pick 40 Michael O'loughlin, Luke Parker, Tom Stewart, ANB, Jask Kennedy, Gary Ablett. 
• Pick 58 lachie Neale
• Pick 60 Brad Scott, Derek Kickett
• Pick 79 James Hird
• Pick 58 Dane Swan
• Pick 71 Brian Lake

There is always value if you get it right,...

[The Jackson FIX 2,297]

Apols if this has been covered but Meth Coast social media account joking about the weakness of offers for pick 1 is weird. 

[Binmans PA 26,494]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

• Pick 56 Jordan Dawson, James Sicily, Dougall Howard, Ryan OKeefe
• Pick 43 Adam Goodes
• Pick 42 Bacher houli, Jack Steven, Martin Pike, 
• Pick 40 Michael O'loughlin, Luke Parker, Tom Stewart, ANB, Jask Kennedy, Gary Ablett. 
• Pick 58 lachie Neale
• Pick 60 Brad Scott, Derek Kickett
• Pick 79 James Hird
• Pick 58 Dane Swan
• Pick 71 Brian Lake

There is always value if you get it right,...

A lot of these players were recruited before the professional scouting standard of the modern game.

Lachie Neale you could understand had question marks due to height, but Jordan Dawson is a ripper pick at 56. 😳

[Slartibartfast 16,021]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

• Pick 56 Jordan Dawson, James Sicily, Dougall Howard, Ryan OKeefe
• Pick 43 Adam Goodes
• Pick 42 Bacher houli, Jack Steven, Martin Pike, 
• Pick 40 Michael O'loughlin, Luke Parker, Tom Stewart, ANB, Jask Kennedy, Gary Ablett. 
• Pick 58 lachie Neale
• Pick 60 Brad Scott, Derek Kickett
• Pick 79 James Hird
• Pick 58 Dane Swan
• Pick 71 Brian Lake

There is always value if you get it right,...

What happened to Chris Grant?  Do rookies count?  Junior Mac, Dean Cox and there would be many more. 

[No10 323]

10 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

Pick 3 will end up at 4. That won't get us Duursma, but it will be enough for McKercher 

I believe if WC trade to 2 the idea is they’d take Curtain.

Leaves both Duursma and McKercher.

[jnrmac 19,324]

34 minutes ago, Slartibartfast said:

What happened to Chris Grant?  Do rookies count?  Junior Mac, Dean Cox and there would be many more. 

Yeah Mine wasn't exhaustive. Just picked a few random numbers and saw what came up..:)

[58er 5,670]

8 hours ago, Deebauched said:

Id like to see a list of the top 20 AFL players who were picked way down the draft betweeen 40 and 80.

Garry Lyon was talking about it with with one of those Data guys.

That’s like trying to win the lottery with one ticket and a million tickets. 

We have 2 first rounders and need quality not quantity to add no raft of late picks. 

6,11, and Kynan Brown as F/S should be a god draft haul indeed. 

This might leave one pick for the SS pick or a mid year addition. 

Simple but a clear opportunity to improve our list by another 3 youngsters including 2 of the best dozen in the country along with a developing prospect for the future. 

[58er 5,670]

4 hours ago, Slartibartfast said:

What happened to Chris Grant?  Do rookies count?  Junior Mac, Dean Cox and there would be many more. 

Indeed T Mac no 53 ! 

[buck_nekkid 5,565]

4 hours ago, 58er said:

That’s like trying to win the lottery with one ticket and a million tickets. 

We have 2 first rounders and need quality not quantity to add no raft of late picks. 

6,11, and Kynan Brown as F/S should be a god draft haul indeed. 

This might leave one pick for the SS pick or a mid year addition. 

Simple but a clear opportunity to improve our list by another 3 youngsters including 2 of the best dozen in the country along with a developing prospect for the future. 

Maybe Reid, Brown f/s, upgrade Turner and Andrew as b rookie?

[Fat Tony 4,533]

10 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

A lot of these players were recruited before the professional scouting standard of the modern game.

Lachie Neale you could understand had question marks due to height, but Jordan Dawson is a ripper pick at 56. 😳

Professional scouting is no where near as good as you suggest.

Take a look at the current top 50 players in the AFL (https://www.statsinsider.com.au/sport-hub/afl/player-ratings) and where they were drafted. The draft will always be very inefficient because we select players when their bodies are not yet mature and junior footy is so much inferior to AFL.

Rank	Player	Draft Pick
3	Lachie Neale	58
4	Zach Merrett	26
5	Zak Butters	12
7	Jordan Dawson	56
8	James Sicily	56
9	Toby Greene	11
10	Charlie Curnow	12
12	Jack Sinclair	Rookie
18	Patrick Cripps	13
19	Jai Newcombe	Mid Season
22	Shai Bolton	29
23	Dan Houston	Rookie
25	Tom Stewart	40
26	Max Gawn	34
28	Tim English	19
29	Rowan Marshall	Rookie
31	Chad Warner	39
32	Sam Taylor	28
37	Touk Miller	29
38	Rory Laird	Rookie
40	Bailey Dale	45
41	Luke Parker	40
43	Jarrod Witts	67
45	Charlie Cameron	Rookie
50	Zac Bailey	15

 

[Katrina Dee Fan 2,483]

I may have missed something that's already been discussed, and if I have I apologise in advance.

Melbourne offered picks 6, 11, 42 and future first round pick for pick 1.  My understanding is Melbourne wanted 42 to pick up Kynan Brown under father/son.  If they're willing to use all their draft picks to get 1, does that mean Melbourne aren't interested in Brown?

 

EDIT - I can see some discussion, so yes, I apologise.  I'll have a read through properly.  Sorry, just with some Year 11s this morning helping them revise for exams.... not one of my most engaged mornings, I'm afraid.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Katrina Dee Fan

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,564]

19 minutes ago, Katrina Dee Fan said:

I may have missed something that's already been discussed, and if I have I apologise in advance.

Melbourne offered picks 6, 11, 42 and future first round pick for pick 1.  My understanding is Melbourne wanted 42 to pick up Kynan Brown under father/son.  If they're willing to use all their draft picks to get 1, does that mean Melbourne aren't interested in Brown?

 

EDIT - I can see some discussion, so yes, I apologise.  I'll have a read through properly.  Sorry, just with some Year 11s this morning helping them revise for exams.... not one of my most engaged mornings, I'm afraid.

I think they will just be flexible on draft night.

Perhaps part of the trade would also see something come back to Melbourne that hasn't been reported, or we can trade a future pick for a pick this year.

[Lord Travis 10,274]

15 hours ago, Deebauched said:

Id like to see a list of the top 20 AFL players who were picked way down the draft betweeen 40 and 80.

Garry Lyon was talking about it with with one of those Data guys.

It's very subjective. Others have posted some lists already showing that you can find quality all throughout a draft. How much of it comes down to development by club or the individual themselves can't really be measured. The absolute top players and leaders are generally first round picks though. Having a look at some current stars draft pick

Bont pick 4

Petracca 2

Daicos 4

Oliver 5

Toby Greene 11

DeGoey 5

Butters 12

Rozee 5

Curnow 12

Darcy Moore 9

If you go back a generation you get the Buddy, Judd, Hodge, Dusty, Reiwoldt, Dangerfield, Selwood, Pendlebury, Roughhead, Pavlich etc all top 10 picks.

Going through the best players, it seems the best midfielders are often first rounders, but tall quality is more spread across the draft, especially tall defenders Tall forwards used to be the cream first round but have actually become less reliable recently. I'd be drafting a midfielder with our first pick and that's likely Sanders if we don't trade up.

[demoncat 647]

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/west-coast-eagles/afl-draft-2023-pick-1-trade-options-analysis-harley-reid-what-is-pick-1-worth-in-a-deal-west-coast-eagles-north-melbourne-melbourne-offers/news-story/a0a86d51358c9e10f834b850bfa50506

[Bang Bang Bang 5,560]

I saw a comment online that Adelaide tried to get JHF in 2021 by offering three first rounders and were rejected. The three picks ending up being used on Rachele, Rankine and Dawson. Adelaide were MUCH better off in the end not trading. JHF had similar hype to Reid. Ignoring his personality for a minute, JHF looks like an incredible player at times but he only performs in bursts and there’s no guarantees he’ll even make it as an elite midfielder.

I still want us to trade for Reid because it’s worth the risk IMO but hopefully it works out either way for us.

 

[JJJ 570]

Very good source told me WC are trying to turn pick 1 into 3 top 10 picks. Also told me that the stories about WC are wanting the WA tall are a tad embellished.

The stumbling block is North Melbourne. they want Pick 1 and to keep 2 or 3 so they get either the better Tassie mid or Duursma. 

My guess is that it could look something like below…. Which is 3 inside top 11. There would be some additional bits and pieces thrown in to balance it out.

WC 3, 8 + 11

North 1 

MFC 2

Geelong 6

Personally if that were to eventuate or something similar I would be ok with it.

[JJJ 570]

I should mention, I don’t blame North for not wanting to give up 2+3. They’d want something pretty good back. Like Geelongs future 1st and WC future 2nd etc…