PREGAME: Rd 22 vs Carlton

[Tracca 853]

30 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

The best defences are built on predictability. Smith has a bit of Frostball about him. He isn't predictable enough to the other defenders, and we don't have the luxury of time to get him settled down there. He doesn't know when to stay back and when to run off, and he isn't reliable enough to allow May and Lever to peel off and help one another.

Tomlinson is slow but he's predictable. I think we are playing May higher up, because the plan is to have him replace Petty at CHB and have Tomlinson and/or Hibbo play closer to the goal line, where you need a 'goal keeper' style sweeper who can peel off and defend. Hibbo does this brilliantly well at ground level and in the air, but is obviously limited by height. 

Smith's attributes and unpredictability are better suited to playing as a forward IMO.

With Clarry back *touch wood*, we will now have the option of dropping out a mid from the rotation, as we have been carrying an extra mid to cover his enormous loss. This will allow us to play a 7th defender, which could well be Hibbo, and free up Salem/Bowey/Rivers to play a more attacking role off half back. 

Alternatively we may choose to play an extra small forward to up the forward pressure and play a stronger front half game. 

i agree id rather him up fwd anyway

[Roost it far 8,588]

30 minutes ago, Fromgotowoewodin said:

I think it’s Gawndy time, didn’t like it earlier in the year as we had 2 talls plus a ruck and it was getting congested. Hopefully with just JVR and a ruck we can create enough space for Trac, Melksham and the rest to get on leads. Key will be having the resting ruck on the move rather than just parking 25m out calling for the ball.

Otherwise I think Smith goes back to sub, just don’t think he’s got 4 quarters of concentration in him (5 of his 7 touches came in Q2 this week, 0 in Q3). Hibberd into the 22.

Clarry hopefully locked in and not further delayed, out goes Harmes or JJ. I’d prefer Harmes out, looks like it’s gone past him. We’ll always have that pass to Fritta in the GF.. 

That pass to Fritsch was the equal of any great moment in a footballers life, it was art....in fact that whole stoppage was.

[Tracca 853]

18 minutes ago, Travy14 said:

He is worse as a fwd.

ok mate

[Fromgotowoewodin 1,606]

12 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

That pass to Fritsch was the equal of any great moment in a footballers life, it was art....in fact that whole stoppage was.

At a time when we desperately needed the next goal, it bobbled out of Smith’s perfectly for Harmes to grab it without breaking stride, 3-4 steps and weighted the pass so Fritta could just about walk onto the end of it. If he never plays another game he’s done enough. 

[Jaded No More 68,974]

31 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Didn't we play 7 defenders? May, Lever, Smith as the "talls" and McVee, Bowey, Salem and Rivers as the "smalls". When Petty came off, Smith was moved forward and Hibberd slotted into defence.   

Yes you are right, we have played one less forward in order to allow for an extra mid. I think we will drop the extra mid closer to finals once Clarry has settled back in, and go with another half forward, because we still have the option to play Kosi, Rivers and ANB through the midfield as needed, and we can push Gus back in case of dire emergency. 

I have a sneaking suspicion that Kosi is an ace up our sleeve that we are keeping for finals, where he will play greater on ball minutes. We don't want teams planning too heavily for it to happen, so we are using him sparingly now. But he hasn't trained with the mids in pre-season to play 2 minutes of midfield time a game IMO. 

So with that in mind, we will definitely need an extra small forward, which in all likelihood will be Spargo, unless Fritta is back and we choose to play him and Melksham together, with Melksham doing a defensive role on the opposition's intercept defender, which is important against the likes of Pies (Moore), Lions (Andrews) and Port (Aliir). 

The loss of Petty just throws off the plans of settling the back 7, because the forward 6 is back up in the air. Annoying and untimely! 

[DEE fence 5,039]

If Smith has been getting a game, it is because he is doing what the coaches want how they want. Personally trust the coaches on his selection as I’ve been seeing improvement on his touch each week and he has speed and endurance.

What I don’t understand is what Dunstan needs to do, I think he deserves a go before Harmes and Sparrow at this stage. Jordan is a whipping boy for DL, people are so febrile on a few of our players.

So happy Hibbo is back as well, gives us some flexibility and knows his role.

Oliver and Dunstan in

Petty/Harmes out

and my whacky idea, Hibbo as a forward, knows how to kick a goal … before you howl, we are set in defense, have options with Tomlinson and Smith, but of all the mid size players and those that can play bigger, Hibbo has kicked some booming goals over the years, and I think is the best kick of those we have left to play forward, that can cope with and dish out physical pressure. Carlton has a big forward line, so having Tomlinson back makes sense, or maybe Smith. Whereas Hibbo forward would be a left field move and his mobility would trouble some of the Carlton defenders and he would bring forward defensive pressure. Rivers has really showed he can drive from HB like Hibbo has done for years, but sadly does not seem to be a goal kicker. So leave Rivers doing Hibbo defensive things. I just don’t feel like BBB has the mobility, Tmac not ready, and gets pushed under the ball.  

[speed demon 818]

6 hours ago, old55 said:

Agree Jimmy, we need to go with Grundy now.

I obviously agree with everyone that it would have been far better if Petty had not been injured, and Grundy/Gawn won't be nearly as effective forward, but we're not screwed ...

With Max solo rucking we've been able to play an extra mid which has been helpful with our rotations.  Yesterday vs North (apart from Petty and Hibberd - the sub pair) - Viney, Harmes, Brayshaw, (Bowey), Jordon and Petracca - our entire midfield played least game-time in that order, and all less than 80% with Viney at 71% down from his usual mid-80s.

That gives us flexibility with the sub.  If we replace Petty with Grundy we can roll the dice, ruck Grundy heavily in the first half with Max forward part-time, and plan to sub Grundy sometime in the second half without needing to worry about an in-game injury because we have an extra runner anyway.  Hibberd can remain sub, Grundy comes off and Smith goes forward like yesterday.  Max can go full-time ruck when Grundy comes off.  The main risk with this plan is an in-game injury to May who is the irreplaceable in this set-up.  We could take some insurance and play Tomlinson as sub but that's not my preferred variation.

Out: Petty, Harmes/JJ
In: Grundy, Oliver

I really like the idea of Grundy in with a plan to sub out in the 2nd half. 

Give Grundy and Gawn a half each to be the dominant ruckman. Plays to their strengths. 

Also gives us a look at a few different set ups (i.e. Smith back vs forward, Hibberd as 3rd tall defender) against good opposition. 

[Robbie57 2,022]

Ok, let me get this clear:

• Grundy is tall and mobile.
• Not the best mark but could create a contest and bring the ball down.
• He certainly could take over the part time ruck duties from JVR.
• He is a reasonable kick for goal.
• He would create real pressure up forward and would draw one of the two best defenders.
• He is AFL match fit.

The choices would be:

• Grundy v Brown
• Grundy v Schack
• Grundy v TMac (if fit)
• Grundy v Smith

 Ah but the media say he is not a forward! Petty wasn't a forward until a week or so ago. 

Worth a try... IMHO.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Robbie57

[Bates Mate 4,510]

6 hours ago, deejammin' said:

In: Grundy, Oliver, Hibberd

Out: Petty 😭, Harmes, Smith (to be sub)

So much talk about Grundy not being great in the last VFL game. I watched that, terrible conditions for bigs, blowing an absolute gale. Grundy’s worst performances have coincided with terrible conditions, rain at Geelong, torrential rain in the NT, the time to play one ruck was in torrential rain, in good conditions two could be an advantage.
Without Grundy we’ve won by 1 point, 4 points and two five goal wins over teams in the bottom six, with him we’re 10-6 including wins over Collingwood and this weeks opponent Carlton, it’s hardly panic stations to have him in. If the weather looks ok Saturday he comes in. His first VFL game as a forward he got involved in much better conditions.

He’s no Petty, but Brown was ok against Brisbane for one quarter and terrible against Adelaide in a game we dominated, he’s not offering more than Grundy. Schache is soft as butter in marking contests, he’s not the answer, TMac can’t move sideways and while Smith is good, our forwardline looks too small with JVR, Smith and Melk as the talls, especially when Max is rucking 90% and unable to rest forward. Also if JVR is backup ruck there will be times where we have no true talls forward, if we do that this week Weitering will have a field day, especially if we kick how we did against North, Zeibel was intercepting at will! Grundy actually gives us an advantage in the ruck while Max rests and allows Max to rest forward with JVR rather than on the bench.
At worst we freshen Max up for finals with Grundy in the next few games before bringing in a fit TMac or Fritsch, at best we get what we saw in the preseason and first few rounds and the two rucks dominate. It’s worth noting that Gawn looked down on form and confidence coming back from injury early in the season, his best form has coincided with playing as sole ruck but perhaps it’s a coincidence? If Max maintains his form from the last few weeks and Brodie regains his best form we could see something truly special, flag winning special, none of the other options have that upside. 

 

I like your logic, I'm onboard

[dazzledavey36 55,319]

23 minutes ago, Robbie57 said:

Ok, let me get this clear:

• Grundy is tall and mobile.
• Not the best mark but could create a contest and bring the ball down.
• He certainly could take over the part time ruck duties from JVR.
• He is a reasonable kick for goal.
• He would create real pressure up forward and would draw one of the two best defenders.
• He is AFL match fit.

The choices would be:

• Grundy v Brown
• Grundy v Schack
• Grundy v TMac (if fit)
• Grundy v Smith

 Ah but the media say he is not a forward! Petty wasn't a forward until a week or so ago. 

Worth a try... IMHO.

It's not just the media, it's a well known fact that he's not a forward.

His last performance as a forward at VFL was very sub par against a suburban level defence in Williamstown. 

He'll probably play against Carlton because he's literally the last option we have available. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,909]

Just now, dazzledavey36 said:

It's not just the media, it's a well known fact that he's not a forward.

His last performance as a forward at VFL was very sub par against a suburban level defence in Williamstown. 

He'll probably play against Carlton because he's literally the last option we have available. 

Not really. If Oliver is back and with Brayshaw and Viney doing so well in the midfield, Petracca can play a lot more time forward. Handy option. 

Having said that, I still think it's more likely that one of Smith or Grundy will replace Petty as a tall forward. 

[Young Blood 2,634]

I think Grundy and Brown will be the last resort.

There's a reason Smith was given time in the forward line, why Melk has been given a spot and why Petty was by far the best no.1 marking option.... MOBILITY.

Goodwin values the above players over Brown and Grundy because they can actually move with pace without the ball. They're simply more dynamic with what they bring. While both of them have some strength, they are probably our two slowest players off the mark. So many times this season they have been unable to make it to a marking contest or lead because they can't get any sort of separation from opponents due to lack of leg speed and burst. I loved seeing Petty get rid his opponent using his strength and quickly out mark the next opponent in front. True forward craft and skill. Alas....

I was pleased to see a lot of posters hoping that it will be Smith to go up forward. Of course he's not the size nor player that Petty is but he can produce part of what he brings. He can break off his man to compete in the air and when the ball hits the ground he can put pressure on the opposition with his pace. He seems to be playing with more confidence this year and I've loved the way he attacks every contest.

Smith also provides what Goodwin loves which is versatility. If Trac spends more time forward and/or Fritta returns then Smith can again be swung back where needed.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Young Blood

[Demon Dynasty 17,109]

7 hours ago, Kent said:

I still think the Shack is worthy of another opportunity

Smith cannot get near the ball. The Shack can still take contested marks which is what we are missing we are 16th on the list

Scache got one or two minor looks early in the season and hasn't been looked at since.

Might be a bit late for the FD to be experimenting with new options. 

Would be surprised to see him come in but imho he's probably a better answer than Grundy in a genuine forward sense.  He can also provide a chop out for Max & JVR in the ruck in small stints.

Give him the next two weeks to show something.  If not Grundy comes in for the last round against the Swans.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Is Cerra, Walsh and Cripps expected to return this week? Cannot believe they won without their core midfield group. Reflects poorly on the Saints big time.

[YearOfTheDees 3,266]

They are a little Overconfident down in Bagger land at the moment. Some big bets on themselves and it's only Monday. 

[Demonstone 22,815]

15 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Is Cerra, Walsh and Cripps expected to return this week?

Cripps played yesterday.  Apart from Walsh and Cerra, the other big name missing was Harry McKay.

[bobby1554 1,261]

16 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Is Cerra, Walsh and Cripps expected to return this week? Cannot believe they won without their core midfield group. Reflects poorly on the Saints big time.

Cripps has been playing, I doubt whether Cerra will play, it was only 10 days ago that he strained his hamstring. re Saints midfield, Steele and Crouch did not have a possession in the final quarter, says it all really

[Jaded No More 68,974]

20 minutes ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Is Cerra, Walsh and Cripps expected to return this week? Cannot believe they won without their core midfield group. Reflects poorly on the Saints big time.

Cerra did a second hammy less than two weeks ago. If he plays it’s either stupidity or a modern day medical miracle. 
Not sure about Walsh. 
 

[CHF 2,768]

I good win last week. I know it was against the second bottom team that are in a world of hurt, but after a very soft and unaccountable first quarter we went to work and turned it around to the tune of 10 goals. Kudos to the coaches. They identified the problems sorted out what needed to be done, told the team and the team did as they were asked. Mutual trust between the team and the coaches means that the team trust in what the coaches are asking and the coaches trust the team to respond as asked.

For Carlton we will need to make a couple of changes. 

In defence I would like to see Tomlinson come in. With May not in good form and making a few uncharacteristic errors I think it would be good to have the cover and flexibility of Tomlinson to call on. I may look at moving Smith back to sub to accommodate.

Oliver, if fit, for Harmes or Jordon. I think the call will be based on what the selectors see as required. Harmes brings the pressure and I think he can still tag if required whereas Jordon is a bit better and cleaner with disposal. With Oliver coming back to the middle, they might see Jordon as a bit more value with a bit more outside run.

I will be interested to see the Petracca/Oliver combination back in business. I expect Petracca to spend more time forward than he did before Olivers absence. it works well and with his movement between forward and on ball it makes him an even more difficult match up.

Shame Petty is out at this stage of the season. he was shaping as the sprinkle of magic dust we needed in the forward 50. maybe three possibilities to replace him. Grundy, Schache, Brown. Pros and cons for each of them. Might leave that one to the coaches and selectors. I think they might play Grundy just to make a point and see what is what. I do not mind that but the ruck cutout with JVR has worked a treat in the last few weeks and I would like to see that continue. if Grundy is there he plays forward or is on the bench.

I can see the Dees bringing their 'A' game for 4 quarters this week as a test run for the finals and winning well.

Just a note on Smith. I would like to see him attend a couple of centre bounces. He might just surprise in there.

[Maldonboy38 6,406]

Blues & Dees are the 2 best contested ball teams at the moment, so I reckon any change needs to focus on the needs of the game on these terms. Although I love the way BBB straightens us up, he doesn't create enough impact in the contest any more. And Schache is a VFL player, and at AFL level is often a contested ball liability.

OUT- PETTY
Option 1. Grundy. Very competitive when rucking, and also very competitive when the ball hits the ground. But I am not sure this will happen.
Option 2. Smith forward is athletic and competitive, Hibberd down back to replace Smith who is a defensive beast who can also run and carry. 

OUT - HARMES
Oliver. No explanation required, but feel sad for Harmes.

 

[dazzledavey36 55,319]

Looks like showers on Saturday night.

[Jaded No More 68,974]

15 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Looks like showers on Saturday night.

Lucky it’s only Monday and Melbourne’s weather changes as often as David King’s mind. 

[OhMyDees 1,834]

Anyone else fuming over Robbo and Whateley on AFL360 ‘ginned up’ over Carlton and then briefly saying Melbourne were essentially rooted because we lost Petty?

Edited August 7, 2023 by OhMyDees

[SFebes 4,884]

13 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

Lucky it’s only Monday and Melbourne’s weather changes as often as David King’s mind. 

I just watched the clip of him desperately jumping off Collingwood's bandwagon, cracked me up, worth a look haha

[layzie 33,991]

Goal Caitlin Foord!