PREGAME: Rd 16 vs GWS

[Demonsone 1,743]

23 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

After last week's effort I think we beat the giants and beat them comfortably. 

It's the following week that I'm more concerned about.

History suggest a typical melb of old loss coming

[Roost it far 6,473]

36 minutes ago, Demonsone said:

History suggest a typical melb of old loss coming

History heavily suggesting a solid Dee’s win. 

[DeeMee 782]

Apologies if already put in but for the doomsayers have a listen to the Champion Data guy at 18 minutes in on this 

 

[leave it to deever 16,588]

On 6/24/2023 at 10:55 AM, layzie said:

Because there's no one else 

And was in good touch KB round.

[beelzebub 22,728]

2 hours ago, DeeMee said:

Apologies if already put in but for the doomsayers have a listen to the Champion Data guy at 18 minutes in on this 

 

Fascinating 

[binman 39,623]

17 hours ago, dazzledavey36 said:

Just for [censored] and giggles.

 

This tweet provides an interesting example of how the footy media often uses data to create a narrative and/or advance a specific argument. 

Let's say Montagna wanted some data to strengthen his argument that the demons have a 'scoring issue'. He might use this single data point - and the tweet itself - to make his case. He and King use a single data point all the time to do exactly that (ie advance a specific, often narrow, argument).

And just as Justin Giuliano does with that tweet, they often use a psychological technique called 'framing'.

Framing, which i think has its origins in advertising, is very widely used in advocacy, government, campaigning, polling etc etc. The goal of framing is to influence the recipient's thinking to achieve a specific aim or advance a specific agenda.

In the case of advertisers, the aim is to sell stuff. For government, it might be to promote a particular policy position (a classic example, that is often used to demonstrate the framing technique, is the language the Labor and Liberal parties use to dehumanize people seeking asylum in Australia by boat). 

In his tweet, Giuliano has used framing to influence reader's analysis of the data in the tweet - the dees have 'scoring problems'

This is achieved by an explanatory para that primes readers to read the chart through the lens of the dees' supposed 'scoring troubles'. And doubles down on that framing by comparing us with a team in historically poor form - and uses a shocked emoji to not so subtlety ram his point home: 

• 'Another perspective of the Dees' recent scoring troubles is looking at points scored per inside 50. Whilst Dees are 8th overall this season with 1.61 points per I50, they are 17th over the last 5 weeks (4 games), only marginally better than the Eagles (1.13 vs 1.11)😮'

What i would like to see is Champion Data and the analysts in the footy media help educate footy fans on how to interpret and understand data, not use it to prime them to prima facie accept an argument they making.  

Without getting into the discussion about whether we have a 'scoring problem', here are the contextual thoughts and questions i had when reading the chart to help me understand what it was saying and put the data into some sort of context:

• Unlike the Eagles, we are a forward half team that looks to trap it in our forward line, and if we can't do so, set up a wall to increase the likelihood we will turn it over at half forward and re-enter our 50
• That model means the ball is often coming back into a very crowed forward line because almost all players from both teams have pressed up into our forward half
• Logic suggests that a crowded forward line makes it harder to score, which probably helps explain why we are still only mid table for points scored per inside 50 even when traveling well
• What then are our re-entry numbers in this period, have they dropped off too? 
• Are our tackles inside 50 stats relevant here?
• Have all teams dropped off in that stat in the relevant time period (that's to say is this a league wide trend we are tracking with)? 
• Is the drop of consistent and/or correlated and/or explained and/or interconnected with other relevant stats (eg accuracy)? 
• Is there any key personnel differences that should be factored in (eg no genuine second tall in these four games)?
• Logic suggests young players will be impacted by fatigue more than seasoned players (as evidenced in the drop off in player ratings and pressure points for young players in this phase of the season)
• How much weight then should be given to the fact that with JVR, Chandler, Kozzie and Chandler we have a very young forward line that is very likely to be struggling with the rigors of an AFL season in this period? 
• If we are comparing the dees to the Eagles, how young is their forward line?
• The sample size is very small - only four games
• Who were those four games against (answer: Freo, Blues, Pies and Cats)?
• How much weight should be given to the quality of the opposition (by way of contrast, in that same period, the Pies played the Roos, Eagles, Dees and the Crows)?
• How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the teams in the sample are one on top of the AFL ladder and have a very strong defensive system?
• Is it relevant that we had 9 more scoring shots than the Pies? 
• In the four games in the chart, should the conditions be factored into the analysis?  
• As an example of the relevance of the above question, the Blues and Cats' games were played at night in cold, dewy conditions and the cats games was also wet and slippery conditions - logic suggests that it is harder to convert inside 50s into scores in such conditions
• Given 50% of the games were played at night and 25% of the sample size were played in wet conditions, how much does that skew the results?
• What were the conditions the Eagles played in - are we comparing like for like? 
• What is AFL average score to inside 50 ratio in wet conditions?
• How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the sample size is at a ground that is different in shape and size to every other AFL ground, is hard to score at and the narrowness of the ground makes for crowded forward lines? 
• How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the sample size is against a team (the Cats) that has a massive home ground advantage, plays the ground well, trains on the ground, and has created a defensive system perfectly suited for that venue (not to mention having one of the best key defenders in the AFL in Stewart)?
• What is the dees historical score to inside 50 ratio at Kardinia park?
• What are other teams score to inside 50 ratio at Kardinia park?
• Historically, how important/significant is score to inside 50 ratio in terms of it being a useful indicator of the chances of winning a flag, ie does it actually matter if we are down on that stat?
• What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in the corresponding period last year?
• What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in 2021 home and away season?
• What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio from round 16 in 2021 and 2022 (ie should we expect this stat to improve- this would be useful to know, because if the answer is yes, then it might be an issue of concern if it doesn't rebound)?
• What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in the 2021 finals series?
• What was the score to inside 50 ratio for the winners of the last say, 10 flags?
• Why was this particular time frame (five weeks) chosen - because it suited a particular narrative?
• Why do he choose, for instance, not to go back another two week and include our loss to Port and the demolition of the hawks - that would give a more representative sample size (ie the last six games versus the 8 previous games)?
• Do we have a 'scoring problem?

 

Alternatively, we could just accept the author's framing, and simply agree with what we are being primed to think - the dees have 'scoring problems'. 

 

 

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by binman

[WalkingCivilWar 35,142]

🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
Ricky Lever’s 150th this Sunday!

🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

Harmesy’s also currently on 149 games. We’re loath to acknowledge his milestone when he’s named as sub, which is, barring injuries to other players, the likely situation for who knows how long. 🤷‍♀️ 

Also, to all the people who resent this game being played in the Alice… we sold this game to the NT govt years ago when we were up sh!tt creek financially. Yes, now we’re financially sound, but it has become something more important than just a game of footy. The locals LOVE this event. They look forward to it months out and the indigenous kids in particular are thrilled to see our boys play live, in particular, they absolutely idolise Kozzy. Many of these people don’t have much going on in their lives about which to be happy. You wanna take that away from them?

Besides that, our players love this match taking place in the Alice. Also, we’d lose NT tourism as a major sponsor. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by WalkingCivilWar

[beelzebub 22,728]

Ricky ? Related to Jake ? 🤔🤔🤷🤷

[Nascent 7,780]

Sounds like Brown and Bowey are likely ins going of Goodys presser.

Also, reading between the lines, it sounds like they will stick with Petty back as the preferred set up for May and Lever.

[Binmans PA 26,736]

4 hours ago, DeeMee said:

Apologies if already put in but for the doomsayers have a listen to the Champion Data guy at 18 minutes in on this 

 

Winning ground ball against Collingwood and they're vulnerable the other way. Yep. We are set up to beat Collingwood. 

[Binmans PA 26,736]

8 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Sounds like Brown and Bowey are likely ins going of Goodys presser.

Also, reading between the lines, it sounds like they will stick with Petty back as the preferred set up for May and Lever.

Which means we're following the 2021 set up, except I assume it's JVR for TMac staying in.

I think we have to use Grundy as the forward with bursts in the middle personally. More like how we utilised Jackson.

And when Max isn't rucking or floating behind the ball, he's resting on the bench and JVR or Brown are doing the inside 50 ruck work (as Grundy stays behind the ball).

Edited June 29, 2023 by A F

[Kozzie4PM 765]

5 hours ago, DeeMee said:

Apologies if already put in but for the doomsayers have a listen to the Champion Data guy at 18 minutes in on this 

 

Very interesting thanks for posting.

[layzie 30,422]

Sounds like Brown will be back for the trip to the Red.

[Binmans PA 26,736]

I just listened to Goody's press conference and he says TMac 'is probably 3 or 4 weeks away at the moment'.

I'd suggest they're targeting Rounds 19 or 20 for his return, so that we get enough time to adjust to the forward system with TMac and Brown in it (both of them potentially) and to build synergy again with the other forwards and the mids.

Goody mentioned the word synergy and we know he values continuity to build cohesion and improve ball movement, so it'll be interesting to see if Tom is ready as well.

JVR might just end up being the unlucky one this year, because I can't imagine we'll play JVR, TMac and BB in the same forwardline if we continue with Max or Grundy forward.

Also going from Goody's presser, he says Max and Grundy are working from a rucking perspective, as we've started to get our clearance game going recently, but that we'd like to see more of them forward of centre.

So the forwardline around Round 20ish (injury and rehab permitting) should have all our talls available: JVR, TMac, BB, Smith and Max/Grundy. If Selwyn and the conditioning team can get TMac ready to go in time and maintain the fitness of everyone else, plus get Clarry back to normal, we'll be really well placed to attack those last 5 weeks.

We won't be going with the two defensive talls (May and Lever by themselves) again either by the sounds of it, unless it's completely out of necessity. I took Goody's comments to mean Petty stays back now. Particularly, if we have BB and TMac to choose from in time.

With the exception of Bowser for Hibbo this week, likely changes will come in the forward half if BB comes in. If so, it'll be interesting to see whether they give JVR a rest or drop Smith.

The pressure for spots is really heating up, which is great and will be compounded again when we try to fit Clarry back into the midfield.

[Jaded No More 60,146]

30 minutes ago, A F said:

I just listened to Goody's press conference and he says TMac 'is probably 3 or 4 weeks away at the moment'.

I'd suggest they're targeting Rounds 19 or 20 for his return, so that we get enough time to adjust to the forward system with TMac and Brown in it (both of them potentially) and to build synergy again with the other forwards and the mids.

Goody mentioned the word synergy and we know he values continuity to build cohesion and improve ball movement, so it'll be interesting to see if Tom is ready as well.

JVR might just end up being the unlucky one this year, because I can't imagine we'll play JVR, TMac and BB in the same forwardline if we continue with Max or Grundy forward.

 

I honestly can't see how he gets back to full fitness this year. The only thing that would get him a game right now is his incredible aerobic ability to cover the ground, and it would be a minor miracle for him to regain that having missed half a pre season and half a season. 

He was in poor form earlier in the year even before this latest setback, and we are already carrying an underdone Gawn. Two big men who can't get out of first gear is hardly ideal. Add to that BBB, and you are left with a very immobile and slow forwardline. 

As for JVR, I would rest him for rounds 21-23 and bring him back ahead of finals. He is giving us a good contest, and of all the forward this year, he has been the one to nail crucial shots on goal at critical times. I reckon he would thrive in finals, and it would be a mistake to drop him. If he has a stinker in week 1, then you can review it. But he deserves to play. 

I also want to see him play alongside BBB. I think the protection another really big body will afford him, will totally change his game. 

[Binmans PA 26,736]

23 minutes ago, Jaded No More said:

I honestly can't see how he gets back to full fitness this year. The only thing that would get him a game right now is his incredible aerobic ability to cover the ground, and it would be a minor miracle for him to regain that having missed half a pre season and half a season. 

He was in poor form earlier in the year even before this latest setback, and we are already carrying an underdone Gawn. Two big men who can't get out of first gear is hardly ideal. Add to that BBB, and you are left with a very immobile and slow forwardline. 

As for JVR, I would rest him for rounds 21-23 and bring him back ahead of finals. He is giving us a good contest, and of all the forward this year, he has been the one to nail crucial shots on goal at critical times. I reckon he would thrive in finals, and it would be a mistake to drop him. If he has a stinker in week 1, then you can review it. But he deserves to play. 

I also want to see him play alongside BBB. I think the protection another really big body will afford him, will totally change his game. 

I agree with all of that, except resting JVR during 21-23. I'd be resting him at 18-19. I know it's only 2-4 weeks later, but I expect us, if we've timed it properly, to be really attacking those games hard and we want continuity heading into the finals. 5 weeks allows us enough of this. If he's coming back in for Round 24, he's stop-starting, given the post R24 bye and finals.

[Roost it far 6,473]

Playing tMac over JVR if we've got Brown playing ain't going to happen. We can't have 2 defensive liabilities in our forward line ever again. We've already got Fritsch who I actually think has improved this year.

[dazzledavey36 49,803]

Tmac is cooked lol.

Will be lucky to play at senior level this year. If we're still relying on him at back end of the year then put a line through us.

[binman 39,623]

Squads in.

JJ omitted and hibbo injured.

8 man interchange is very interesting - jvr, spargs, koz, melksham, Brown, tomo, petty and bowser.

Four and a sub come in.

Edited June 29, 2023 by binman

[FritschyBusiness 1,455]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

Squads in.

JJ omitted and hibbo injured.

8 man interchange is very interesting - jvr, spargs, koz, melksham, Brown, tomo, petty and bowser.

Four and a sub come in.

Very interesting!
Harmes named on the ground so looks like he's in for JJ. 
I'd assume Bowey for Hibbo and then who knows from there, Brown for JVR? 

[brendan 3,421]

Commentary team for Sunday 

kelli underwood 

Dermott brereton 

cam mooney 

John Ralph 

🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

might find something else to do 

 

[CHF 2,634]

Of the 8 named for the interchange two are key forwards in JVR and Brown, Two are small forwards in Spargo and Pickett with Pickett able to rotate into the mids if required ( he does not seem to have been required there much recently). The other four are Bowey, small defender, Tomlinson, tall defender, Petty swing either key forward or back and Melksham who has only been used recently as a HF.

So no runners for midfield rotation.

I think this is a mistake.

[Dee Zephyr 18,246]

5 minutes ago, brendan said:

Commentary team for Sunday 

kelli underwood 

Dermott brereton 

cam mooney 

John Ralph 

🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

might find something else to do 

 

They might be doing the pregame on Fox Footy. It’s a Channel 7 game isn’t it?

Edited June 29, 2023 by Dee Zephyr

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,166]

Can't imagine we are putting BBB on a plane unless he's playing. 

Bowey has to come in.

 

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Both JVR and Brown should have been named on the ground, Chandler and ANF both very lucky and don’t fill me with any confidence.

I’d love to see Joel Smith and Fritsch playing alongside Brown and JVR, two tall, two mobile medium and a couple of small forwards (not the four that had made our forward line impotent) would be a handful for any defence in the league.

Hopefully the coaching staff make amends for dropping Tomlinson after his best game for the club and bringing in an underdone Petty (at least he wasn’t played forward).

We badly missed Bowey’s composure last week.