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PREGAME: Rd 16 vs GWS


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8 minutes ago, bush demon said:

BBB a premiership hero, is one of our top full forwards of the last 60 years.

1. Neitz

2. Bennett

3. Jakovich

4. Dillon

5. Brown

6.  Robertson

7.  Parke

If Melbourne is seriously contending this year the selection committee will need to swallow their pride and get him back in the team.

 

I don't think it's a pride thing. It's a BB fitness thing and a modern game thing (ie you can't go too tall and if you do, they have to be able to defend ground ball).

If we didn't have Grundy, I suspect Brown would have been back sooner and JVR might have shouldered some more 2nd ruck duties.

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5 minutes ago, bush demon said:

BBB a premiership hero, is one of our top full forwards of the last 60 years.

1. Neitz

2. Bennett

3. Jakovich

4. Dillon

5. Brown

6.  Parke

If Melbourne is seriously contending this year the selection committee will need to swallow their pride and get him back in the team.

 

100% agree but very few on DL want him. He kicked 8 goals in the first two rounds yet many say he's too banged up. Get him as fit as possible then play him. That time is now.

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40 minutes ago, bush demon said:

BBB a premiership hero, is one of our top full forwards of the last 60 years.

1. Neitz

2. Bennett

3. Jakovich

4. Dillon

5. Brown

6.  Robertson

7.  Parke

If Melbourne is seriously contending this year the selection committee will need to swallow their pride and get him back in the team.

 

That's a pretty sad list of full forwards if you compare with some others.

Hawthorn: Hudson, Dunstall, Peck, Franklin, Moncrieff (plus Brereton and Matthews) 

Sydney: Lockett, Hall, Franklin

Geelong: Hawkins, Wade, Donohoe, Ablett Sr, Brownless

 

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19 hours ago, Jaded No More said:

I honestly can't see how he gets back to full fitness this year. The only thing that would get him a game right now is his incredible aerobic ability to cover the ground, and it would be a minor miracle for him to regain that having missed half a pre season and half a season. 

He was in poor form earlier in the year even before this latest setback, and we are already carrying an underdone Gawn. Two big men who can't get out of first gear is hardly ideal. Add to that BBB, and you are left with a very immobile and slow forwardline. 

As for JVR, I would rest him for rounds 21-23 and bring him back ahead of finals. He is giving us a good contest, and of all the forward this year, he has been the one to nail crucial shots on goal at critical times. I reckon he would thrive in finals, and it would be a mistake to drop him. If he has a stinker in week 1, then you can review it. But he deserves to play. 

I also want to see him play alongside BBB. I think the protection another really big body will afford him, will totally change his game. 

💯 

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20 hours ago, A F said:

I just listened to Goody's press conference and he says TMac 'is probably 3 or 4 weeks away at the moment'.

I'd suggest they're targeting Rounds 19 or 20 for his return, so that we get enough time to adjust to the forward system with TMac and Brown in it (both of them potentially) and to build synergy again with the other forwards and the mids.

Goody mentioned the word synergy and we know he values continuity to build cohesion and improve ball movement, so it'll be interesting to see if Tom is ready as well.

JVR might just end up being the unlucky one this year, because I can't imagine we'll play JVR, TMac and BB in the same forwardline if we continue with Max or Grundy forward.

Also going from Goody's presser, he says Max and Grundy are working from a rucking perspective, as we've started to get our clearance game going recently, but that we'd like to see more of them forward of centre.

So the forwardline around Round 20ish (injury and rehab permitting) should have all our talls available: JVR, TMac, BB, Smith and Max/Grundy. If Selwyn and the conditioning team can get TMac ready to go in time and maintain the fitness of everyone else, plus get Clarry back to normal, we'll be really well placed to attack those last 5 weeks.

We won't be going with the two defensive talls (May and Lever by themselves) again either by the sounds of it, unless it's completely out of necessity. I took Goody's comments to mean Petty stays back now. Particularly, if we have BB and TMac to choose from in time.

With the exception of Bowser for Hibbo this week, likely changes will come in the forward half if BB comes in. If so, it'll be interesting to see whether they give JVR a rest or drop Smith.

The pressure for spots is really heating up, which is great and will be compounded again when we try to fit Clarry back into the midfield.

I honestly hope this is not the case, one of them yes but not both. If we kicked straight against Collingwood we win by 5-6 goals, neither Brown or TMac played in that game. I do hope BBB can regain some of his best form. We need to remain mobile. But as always it comes to down to our delivery.

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Was a long weekend and a tough week after that performance against the Cats….

Looking at our remaining games we can and should win all of them but that’s not what I’m looking for. I’m more interested to see the make up of the team and how we play. What happened between playing the Pies and the Cats? We can win the flag this year but as we know we are our own worst enemy. Can we try Bowey as a small fwd? 

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On 6/29/2023 at 11:51 AM, binman said:

This tweet provides an interesting example of how the footy media often uses data to create a narrative and/or advance a specific argument. 

Let's say Montagna wanted some data to strengthen his argument that the demons have a 'scoring issue'. He might use this single data point - and the tweet itself - to make his case. He and King use a single data point all the time to do exactly that (ie advance a specific, often narrow, argument).

And just as Justin Giuliano does with that tweet, they often use a psychological technique called 'framing'.

Framing, which i think has its origins in advertising, is very widely used in advocacy, government, campaigning, polling etc etc. The goal of framing is to influence the recipient's thinking to achieve a specific aim or advance a specific agenda.

In the case of advertisers, the aim is to sell stuff. For government, it might be to promote a particular policy position (a classic example, that is often used to demonstrate the framing technique, is the language the Labor and Liberal parties use to dehumanize people seeking asylum in Australia by boat). 

In his tweet, Giuliano has used framing to influence reader's analysis of the data in the tweet - the dees have 'scoring problems'

This is achieved by an explanatory para that primes readers to read the chart through the lens of the dees' supposed 'scoring troubles'. And doubles down on that framing by comparing us with a team in historically poor form - and uses a shocked emoji to not so subtlety ram his point home: 

  • 'Another perspective of the Dees' recent scoring troubles is looking at points scored per inside 50. Whilst Dees are 8th overall this season with 1.61 points per I50, they are 17th over the last 5 weeks (4 games), only marginally better than the Eagles (1.13 vs 1.11)😮'

What i would like to see is Champion Data and the analysts in the footy media help educate footy fans on how to interpret and understand data, not use it to prime them to prima facie accept an argument they making.  

Without getting into the discussion about whether we have a 'scoring problem', here are the contextual thoughts and questions i had when reading the chart to help me understand what it was saying and put the data into some sort of context:

  • Unlike the Eagles, we are a forward half team that looks to trap it in our forward line, and if we can't do so, set up a wall to increase the likelihood we will turn it over at half forward and re-enter our 50
  • That model means the ball is often coming back into a very crowed forward line because almost all players from both teams have pressed up into our forward half
  • Logic suggests that a crowded forward line makes it harder to score, which probably helps explain why we are still only mid table for points scored per inside 50 even when traveling well
  • What then are our re-entry numbers in this period, have they dropped off too? 
  • Are our tackles inside 50 stats relevant here?
  • Have all teams dropped off in that stat in the relevant time period (that's to say is this a league wide trend we are tracking with)? 
  • Is the drop of consistent and/or correlated and/or explained and/or interconnected with other relevant stats (eg accuracy)? 
  • Is there any key personnel differences that should be factored in (eg no genuine second tall in these four games)?
  • Logic suggests young players will be impacted by fatigue more than seasoned players (as evidenced in the drop off in player ratings and pressure points for young players in this phase of the season)
  • How much weight then should be given to the fact that with JVR, Chandler, Kozzie and Chandler we have a very young forward line that is very likely to be struggling with the rigors of an AFL season in this period? 
  • If we are comparing the dees to the Eagles, how young is their forward line?
  • The sample size is very small - only four games
  • Who were those four games against (answer: Freo, Blues, Pies and Cats)?
  • How much weight should be given to the quality of the opposition (by way of contrast, in that same period, the Pies played the Roos, Eagles, Dees and the Crows)?
  • How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the teams in the sample are one on top of the AFL ladder and have a very strong defensive system?
  • Is it relevant that we had 9 more scoring shots than the Pies? 
  • In the four games in the chart, should the conditions be factored into the analysis?  
  • As an example of the relevance of the above question, the Blues and Cats' games were played at night in cold, dewy conditions and the cats games was also wet and slippery conditions - logic suggests that it is harder to convert inside 50s into scores in such conditions
  • Given 50% of the games were played at night and 25% of the sample size were played in wet conditions, how much does that skew the results?
  • What were the conditions the Eagles played in - are we comparing like for like? 
  • What is AFL average score to inside 50 ratio in wet conditions?
  • How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the sample size is at a ground that is different in shape and size to every other AFL ground, is hard to score at and the narrowness of the ground makes for crowded forward lines? 
  • How much weight should be given to the fact that 25% of the sample size is against a team (the Cats) that has a massive home ground advantage, plays the ground well, trains on the ground, and has created a defensive system perfectly suited for that venue (not to mention having one of the best key defenders in the AFL in Stewart)?
  • What is the dees historical score to inside 50 ratio at Kardinia park?
  • What are other teams score to inside 50 ratio at Kardinia park?
  • Historically, how important/significant is score to inside 50 ratio in terms of it being a useful indicator of the chances of winning a flag, ie does it actually matter if we are down on that stat?
  • What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in the corresponding period last year?
  • What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in 2021 home and away season?
  • What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio from round 16 in 2021 and 2022 (ie should we expect this stat to improve- this would be useful to know, because if the answer is yes, then it might be an issue of concern if it doesn't rebound)?
  • What was the dees score to inside 50 ratio in the 2021 finals series?
  • What was the score to inside 50 ratio for the winners of the last say, 10 flags?
  • Why was this particular time frame (five weeks) chosen - because it suited a particular narrative?
  • Why do he choose, for instance, not to go back another two week and include our loss to Port and the demolition of the hawks - that would give a more representative sample size (ie the last six games versus the 8 previous games)?
  • Do we have a 'scoring problem?

 

Alternatively, we could just accept the author's framing, and simply agree with what we are being primed to think - the dees have 'scoring problems'. 

 

 

 

The Hoyne video posted re 2021/2023 demons comparison says it ALL — Were doing fine and will hopefully flick the switch 

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16 hours ago, Lewis said:

BBB loves to carve it up on a training track where it’s easy mate. Kicks snags for fun during pre season and then crumbles at the top level. Gets talked up over the summer and then goes on to play VFL for half a season. He’ll probably come in based on his VFL game last week, which is the right thing to do, rather than what he does at training. 

Did school holidays start a day early?

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I see the Ressies are playing at Casey Igloo at 12.05 on Sunday vs GWS. Surely if BBB was not going to play he would be getting another game under his belt there??

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11 minutes ago, Nudge said:

The Hoyne video posted re 2021/2023 demons comparison says it ALL — Were doing fine and will hopefully flick the switch 

Noooooooooo!!!!!!!

Don't mention the switch!!!!!!!!!

Way, way too triggering for some. 

By the by, here's how I see the next few games - which will involve intermittent switch flicking before  the switch gets permanently flicked.

Nine day break into the giants game (and travel, so essentially forced rest) - attacking footy and run all over the giants (who are coming off their bye). Look a different team than the dour, gassed unit in the 4th quarter against the cats.

Win.

Six day break and travel into the saints game - much to the chagrin and consternation of many DL posters, another dour, defence first match with little fast transition from the back. 

Fortunately the saints, with their dour, deliberate ball movement and defence first game plan can't exploit our lack of run - particularly at marvel with its lack of space.

Win.

Six day break into a Friday night game at the g v lions - dour, but not as dour as the saints game.

Some fascinating variables: the lions are also coming off a six day break, but unlike us have to travel; 8 point game (could well determine if lions get a gabba final week one - potentially against us); lions are slow and so won't be able to exploit any lack of run we have the way, say the dogs would; the G factor.

50 50 game. 

Round 19 - 24 - hello moto; starting with a 9 day break into the crows game, we have a great run home with only one short break - six days between the roos and blues games. Two travelss - tassie and Sydney. But the Sydney game is followed by the pre finals bye, so no post game impact.

Unleash the beast and a return to the offensive power of rounds 1-5 (and round 16). Wow. David King says we changed our approach. DL posters say the same. No mention of 'scoring problems'. 

Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win.

Happy days.

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I think we'll aim to flick the switch a week later at Round 20 or even 21, @binman, but it'll be fascinating to see.

I expect us to win at least 6 out of the remaining 9. If we win more, I think we'll finish top 2.

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15 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Raindrops keep falling on my head….

 Alternatively may we humbly suggest the much more soulful Ann Peebles original,

" I can't stand the rain".

With an eye on the weather here's our tongue and cheek homage.

 

Greg Stafford can't stand the rain

Against his forward six

Bringing back sweet memories

 

Hey forward six

Do you remember

How sweet it used to be?

When it was all together late last September (2021)

Everything was so Grand

Now we're so disconnected

There's just no accuracy

Can't stand in the rain...

 

Edited by Tarax Club
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15 minutes ago, binman said:

Noooooooooo!!!!!!!

Don't mention the switch!!!!!!!!!

Way, way too triggering for some. 

By the by, here's how I see the next few games - which will involve intermittent switch flicking before  the switch gets permanently flicked.

Nine day break into the giants game (and travel, so essentially forced rest) - attacking footy and run all over the giants (who are coming off their bye). Look a different team than the dour, gassed unit in the 4th quarter against the cats.

Win.

Six day break and travel into the saints game - much to the chagrin and consternation of many DL posters, another dour, defence first match with little fast transition from the back. 

Fortunately the saints, with their dour, deliberate ball movement and defence first game plan can't exploit our lack of run - particularly at marvel with its lack of space.

Win.

Six day break into a Friday night game at the g v lions - dour, but not as dour as the saints game.

Some fascinating variables: the lions are also coming off a six day break, but unlike us have to travel; 8 point game (could well determine if lions get a gabba final week one - potentially against us); lions are slow and so won't be able to exploit any lack of run we have the way, say the dogs would; the G factor.

50 50 game. 

Round 19 - 24 - hello moto; starting with a 9 day break into the crows game, we have a great run home with only one short break - six days between the roos and blues games. Two travelss - tassie and Sydney. But the Sydney game is followed by the pre finals bye, so no post game impact.

Unleash the beast and a return to the offensive power of rounds 1-5 (and round 16). Wow. David King says we changed our approach. DL posters say the same. No mention of 'scoring problems'. 

Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win.

Happy days.

That is some crazy rose glasses you've put on there Binman. Are you taking the [censored]. Surely. How can you have such faith in such a disappointing team? 

 

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30 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

Haven’t been keeping up with the news, is Clarry far off a game?

Likely next week mate.

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5 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Why get out?

I just don't think he should have been brought in before spending some time in the VFL, wasn't ready, and they got rid of Tomlinson and messed with a back line that was in the team that beat Collingwood...not sure how that tracked but it didn't seem right to me.  Should earn spot back through vfl.

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1 hour ago, deespicable me said:

That is some crazy rose glasses you've put on there Binman. Are you taking the [censored]. Surely. How can you have such faith in such a disappointing team? 

 

Not sure how long you have been following the dees, but we have a very different definition of what could be considered a disappointing team.

I have been following the dees for aprox 45 years but started going to games regularly in 1978 (by myself back then - no one i knew barracked for the dees).

That year we won the wooden spoon. Fun times. 

We had a stellar year in 1979 and really started our march up the ladder, ending the season in 11th. Not bad until you consider there were only 12 teams. And that time Fitzroy thrashed us by a still record margin was such a gas. 

But boy o boy, was 1980 awesome. We were marching up the ladder! Jumped up to 9th (in a 12-team competition)!

Oh, oh - 1981 wasn't much fun. Yet another wooden spoon. 

So bad were we that we came within a bees whisker of merging with the Hawks and the oldest sporting club in the world almost ceasing to exist. 

186.

The Neeld years.

Et cetera; et cetera; et cetera.

Hopefully, you get my drift. 

In all seriousness, we are currently 4th on the ladder with an ok injury list and a soft run home.

We are currently equal third favorite to win the flag (but will enter the finals as favorite IMHO).

We are $1.40 to make the top 4 (by way of contrast the Cats are next best at $6 to make the top 4 and the Saints, who are only four points behind us, are $7 to make the top 4). For context, we are 1.40 to win Sunday and Winx ran around at that price.  

A serious question - do you rate the Pies?

Well, a reminder, we beat them, the favorites for the flag, just two games ago! Can't have your cake and eat it too - if we are a disappointing side, the Pies must be pretenders not contenders. 

But really, in what universe could this current dees team, premiers in 2021 and finished second on the ladder at the end of the 2022 H&A season (and yes, we went out in straight sets in the finals), be considered a disappointing team?

Not in my universe i can assure you. 

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1 hour ago, A F said:

I think we'll aim to flick the switch a week later at Round 20 or even 21, @binman, but it'll be fascinating to see.

I expect us to win at least 6 out of the remaining 9. If we win more, I think we'll finish top 2.

You’re fast becoming the new Wiseblood Adam with qualified optimism like this

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10 minutes ago, In Harmes Way said:

You’re fast becoming the new Wiseblood Adam with qualified optimism like this

I hope the great man is okay.

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2 hours ago, binman said:

Noooooooooo!!!!!!!

Don't mention the switch!!!!!!!!!

Way, way too triggering for some. 

By the by, here's how I see the next few games - which will involve intermittent switch flicking before  the switch gets permanently flicked.

Nine day break into the giants game (and travel, so essentially forced rest) - attacking footy and run all over the giants (who are coming off their bye). Look a different team than the dour, gassed unit in the 4th quarter against the cats.

Win.

Six day break and travel into the saints game - much to the chagrin and consternation of many DL posters, another dour, defence first match with little fast transition from the back. 

Fortunately the saints, with their dour, deliberate ball movement and defence first game plan can't exploit our lack of run - particularly at marvel with its lack of space.

Win.

Six day break into a Friday night game at the g v lions - dour, but not as dour as the saints game.

Some fascinating variables: the lions are also coming off a six day break, but unlike us have to travel; 8 point game (could well determine if lions get a gabba final week one - potentially against us); lions are slow and so won't be able to exploit any lack of run we have the way, say the dogs would; the G factor.

50 50 game. 

Round 19 - 24 - hello moto; starting with a 9 day break into the crows game, we have a great run home with only one short break - six days between the roos and blues games. Two travelss - tassie and Sydney. But the Sydney game is followed by the pre finals bye, so no post game impact.

Unleash the beast and a return to the offensive power of rounds 1-5 (and round 16). Wow. David King says we changed our approach. DL posters say the same. No mention of 'scoring problems'. 

Win. Win. Win. Win. Win. Win.

Happy days.

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