The Run Home

[Chook 15,012]

5 hours ago, Roost it far said:

Whilst I’m really hoping results fall our way and we get the Pies in a QF can you imagine the stress levels around here that week? It’ll be off tap. Then when we win it’ll be glory glory hallelujah! Could be the greatest week we’ve had since 21

And conversely imagine the wrist-slitting from some around here if we have to make the trip to Brisbane. It's not like we're the last team to beat them up there or anything.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Chook

[leave it to deever 17,506]

46 minutes ago, Jumping Jack Clennett said:

I should know this, but I need help.

If we beat Collingwood in the Qf, then the loser of the other QF gets back to the preliminary final( Port or Bris)....who gets the home final? Dees because we won our first final, or Port(or Bris) because they finished above us?

 

Week 1: Qualifying finals are played between 1st & 4th, whilst the other is between 2nd & 3rd. Elimination finals are played between 5th hosting 8th, whilst the other match features 6th & 7th.

Week 2: There are two semi-finals, which are played between the loser of the qualifying final hosting the winner of the elimination final.

Week 3: The winners of the semi-final, clash against the winners of the qualifying final for a spot in the AFL Grand Final.

Week 4: The two most successful teams battle it out to be crowned the premiers of the AFL season..

Substitute Dees win flag week four.

Im not sure if this answers your query now.

Im sure the winners of the qualifying host the winners of the semi.

Edited August 22, 2023 by leave it to deever

[58er 6,332]

On 8/19/2023 at 6:57 AM, Glorious Day said:

The traditionalists here will be disappointed that we will most likely have to wear our clash royal blue jumper throughout almost all finals we play (aside from the Semi Final if we lose the Qualifying Final, and the Preliminary Final if we win the Qualifying Final) unless some major finals upsets occur (i.e. teams outside the Top 4 progressing through). Yep, we’d be wearing it in the Grand Final without question too if we got that far. 

Depends on who we are playing.

if Lions Port Blues we use Clash jumper.

No problems if we face Pies Saints Swans Giants and white shorts also. 

[leave it to deever 17,506]

Will we play Fritta and  Melksham together?

[Sydee 4,377]

7 hours ago, Macca said:

4th will probably happen for us, layz, but I can see the Saints maybe beating the Lions and if we're fair dinkum, we should beat the Swans

The Saints are playing for a home final and if they lose, they might have to fly interstate for an EF

Port should beat Richmond

But if the above occurs, the Lions would almost certainly slip to 4th and we'd end up in 3rd spot (on percentage)

Pies can win or lose and still finish on top (if Brisbane lose)

There's still a bit to play out especially if the news coming out of the club that we're going flat-out against the Swans is true (I wonder?)

The one thing in our favour is that by the time our game comes around, we'll know all the permutations

I absolutely hate losing but if a win against the swans means a trip interstate for a QF then I'm reasonably comfortable with a close loss at the SCG

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,777]

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

The winners of the QF's get home PF's

Great… thanks. I thought so, but I wasn’t sure. But you are !

[DubDee 25,433]

Looks like the dogs will knock over the Cats as they have pulled up stumps based on their injury update

GWS v Blues will be a cracker on Sunday night

 

Geelong has opted to send Cameron, Rohan and Blicavs in for surgery after the Cats premiership defence ended last weekend. Hawkins has suffered another minor hamstring strain, while Ratugolea also strained his hamstring against St Kilda and Close injured his ankle

[DubDee 25,433]

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

Will we play Fritta and  Melksham together?

yep.  no way the Milkman gets dropped after last week

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,298]

4 minutes ago, DubDee said:

yep.  no way the Milkman gets dropped after last week

He had a quiet 2 weeks but he’s been massive for us over the last few months.

[dazzledavey36 54,087]

My prediction. 

We'll make the grand final.

[Jaded No More 68,835]

1 minute ago, dazzledavey36 said:

My prediction. 

We'll make the grand final.

BUT DO WE WIN???

[dazzledavey36 54,087]

Just now, dazzledavey36 said:

My prediction. 

We'll make the grand final.

 

1 minute ago, Jaded No More said:

BUT DO WE WIN???

Well according to champion data, they agree with me also.

[DEE fence 5,000]

Most anxious about the QF, win that and I think we are a sure thing for the flag. Also I want a win against the Swans, regardless of ladder position.

@WalkingCivilWar my suggestion for the banner...

'You'll need more than the umpire to beat the Demons'

or

'Adelaide was Robbed'

Edited August 22, 2023 by DEE fence
2nd msg

[binman 42,468]

26 minutes ago, DEE fence said:

Most anxious about the QF, win that and I think we are a sure thing for the flag. Also I want a win against the Swans, regardless of ladder position.

@WalkingCivilWar my suggestion for the banner...

'You'll need more than the umpire to beat the Demons'

or

'Adelaide was Robbed'

The crows loss was shocker for the AFL, fix and 7 in terms of its impact on the final round.

They all would have been salivating at the thought of mutiple games with top 8 implications. 

But that loss was very good for the swans and I reckon us too.

I say that because I reckon the crows could have done some damage in the finals. I'm pleased we won't have to play them.

[beelzebub 23,311]

1 hour ago, dazzledavey36 said:

My prediction. 

We'll make the grand final.

Make it.....

We're winning it !!! 

[Jaded No More 68,835]

10 minutes ago, binman said:

The crows loss was shocker for the AFL, fix and 7 in terms of its impact on the final round.

They all would have been salivating at the thought of mutiple games with top 8 implications. 

But that loss was very good for the swans and I reckon us too.

I say that because I reckon the crows could have done some damage in the finals. I'm pleased we won't have to play them.

Agreed. Also means less pressure on Sydney to win this week just to make finals. 
Might see them rest Papley as a result. 

[Chook 15,012]

12 hours ago, Macca said:

In the last 16 seasons only 3 of the flag winners didn't win a QF

Hawks in 2015, Bulldogs in 2016 and the Tigers in 2020

So the 3 aberrations are in fact that, aberrations.  Not the norm.  And in the case of the Hawks & Tigers, both were champion teams heading for their 3rd flag in a short space of time

The only real outlier was the Bulldogs and in their case, their players were trained to the minute with regards to exploiting the holding the ball rule ... ball dribbles free in a tackle and then regained by another Bulldog - rinse and repeat with no penalty (an AFL rules of the game issue, not the fault of the umpires)

So if we're looking for a pattern, follow the norm.  But sports fans can have high hopes at times.  A bit like punters on the horses

But as previously stated, if we lose a QF final, there's still hope but the odds are against you.  And deep down, most know that

Thus, there lies the importance of winning a QF.  You don't want to lose that game even though you do get a 2nd chance

The double chance is more about only needing to roll the dice 3 times instead of 4.

So much luck goes into winning a final let alone 4. You don't want to have to roll the dice any more than absolutely necessary.

[Macca 16,900]

14 minutes ago, Chook said:

The double chance is more about only needing to roll the dice 3 times instead of 4.

So much luck goes into winning a final let alone 4. You don't want to have to roll the dice any more than absolutely necessary.

The 2 weeks off between the QF & PF is beneficial but with better training methods and fitness programs these days probably less so than say 15 years ago

But recovering from niggles and just being able to freshen up is an advantage

In our case, winning the QF would be a great result as we've had a few stumbles

But we're running out games well and look quite fit so losing the QF won't be a disaster (as long as we can bounce back and win the SF and therefore, get back on track)

Our best can beat any team so if we bring our best in the QF, we'll win

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Champion data has us winning it all:
 

Quote

 

“Premier for me is Melbourne at the moment,” Hoyne began.

“That’s based off two words you hear constantly coming out of Melbourne. Defence and contest. Both are no.1, it’s a pretty hard team to crack.”

On a Qualifying Final between Melbourne and Collingwood, should it eventuate, Hoyne added: “I would be tipping Melbourne to beat Collingwood. I think Collingwood are a chance, so Magpies supporters please don’t forget about that.”

 

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/08/22/champion-datas-prediction-for-this-years-premier-rising-star-brownlow/

Edited August 22, 2023 by david_neitz_is_my_dad

[Chook 15,012]

6 minutes ago, david_neitz_is_my_dad said:

Champion data has us winning it all:
 

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/08/22/champion-datas-prediction-for-this-years-premier-rising-star-brownlow/

I love how Collingwood supporters are so feral that the media is actually afraid of the blowback for even suggesting they're not that good. "Oh please don't come after me pies fans you're a chance". 

 

Spare me.

[monoccular 17,408]

In the very unlikely event that we finish 2nd, and Carlton and Saints 5 and 6, how do we fit 4 finals at the MCG in three days?

Or would the Saints have to play at Docklands?

[leave it to deever 17,506]

Just checked the flag odds on Sportsnet.

Interesting to note that Lions are at $4.00 and Port @ $ 6.00

Big difference between second and third considering we are at $4.50 in fourth.

Is it because Port will have to travel to Qld ?

 

[binman 42,468]

1 hour ago, leave it to deever said:

Just checked the flag odds on Sportsnet.

Interesting to note that Lions are at $4.00 and Port @ $ 6.00

Big difference between second and third considering we are at $4.50 in fourth.

Is it because Port will have to travel to Qld ?

 

Something that i think creates some confusion with the betting odds for the flag this close to finals is that they don't necessarily (or even usually) reflect the true odds or the actual rankings as they might objectively stand right now.

That is because the bookies only set the odds once - when they first open the market.

When the market opened after last years GF, the bookies probably has the Cats, a reigning premier, as favs and Pies perhaps second fav at something like $6?

Form that point on the market drives the price, with the bookies just trimming their sails, so to speak, to balance their books. Money has poured in all season on the Pies, forcing them as low 2.75 in the middle of the season.

Even if they are indeed a great team that was just a ridiculous price - too many things can go wrong for those odds to be anywhere near the true odds. 

The Pies current price, favs at 3.75, is still way, way, way unders.

But they are that price because of the weight of money over the season.

They'll drift, but not till the serious punters start weighing in and back other teams with some serious moolah (and by doing so dramatically increase the pool).

The Pies winning this years flag is a wipeout event for the bookies.

But if they don't win it the bookies will be partying like its 1999.

I'd be guessing, but i reckon the pool SB has for the GF will end up quadrupling before GF day.

An interesting question is what prices, with all their analysts and access to data etc, the bookies would set right now if they reframed the market (ie created a brand new, no bets yet, flag market).  

Edited August 23, 2023 by binman

[Jibroni 4,987]

16 hours ago, DubDee said:

Looks like the dogs will knock over the Cats as they have pulled up stumps based on their injury update

GWS v Blues will be a cracker on Sunday night

 

Geelong has opted to send Cameron, Rohan and Blicavs in for surgery after the Cats premiership defence ended last weekend. Hawkins has suffered another minor hamstring strain, while Ratugolea also strained his hamstring against St Kilda and Close injured his ankle

They lost to West Coast last week, anything is possible.

[leave it to deever 17,506]

6 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

They lost to West Coast last week, anything is possible.

Thanks Jibroni.

Totally forgot that. I guess it's a pretty big cat amongst the pigeons.

Also both Lions and Port have big home success and as it sits Lions will probably get the home gig. I certainly don't want us to play either of them. 

I'm also thinking there's a strong chance gws and blues play each other in the last round and first week of finals. 

 

Edited August 23, 2023 by leave it to deever