Trust In This Team

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,391]

10 hours ago, A F said:

Here's the thing though.

It's all well and good to be frustrated. I thought we were pathetic today, but I find it easier to look at the bigger picture and history is an important reminder in AFL footy (and anything really).

We're top 4, with a softer draw coming up in the second half of the year, with less 8 point games than our other top 4 competitors. Many parts of our game are in good shape (our turnover game, our scoring sources), and others (stoppages) need some work.

The stoppages issue IMV has much scope for improvement when we start to throw our better mids through the contest more often, plus I'm sure we'll have some tactical tweaks too. So that's personnel and tactics that you don't necessarily want to show in the first ten rounds.

The history side of it however is more telling. Many supporters seem to have this expectation that having won 2021, we'd be winning flags over and over in the same way. We've had to change the way we're playing because the competition adapted to our intercept game in 2021. But no team in the modern era has gone through seasons like our 2021 season repeatedly. They've all had ups and downs.

It's very similar for Richmond's 4 year period, but let's look at the Hawthorn threepeat team as a prime example. 2013 was their 2021. They won 19 games and aside from their strong qualifying final win over Sydney, won their prelim and GF by a combined 4 goals. Their finals series that season was nothing like the dominance of ours in 2021. And maybe this, plus the fact they'd fallen after their 2008 flag, kept them hungry going into 2014.

But still, 2014 saw them finish second on 17 wins. To Round 10, they were 6 and 3 (there was a bye at Round 9). Those three losses were to Sydney (who finished above them in 1st), Geelong (who finished one place below them in 3rd) and 5th placed Port. Plus, they fell over the line to Essendon (who finished 7th) by 4 points in Round 2, and some of their wins were big wins over the likes of the new and young Suns, eventual wooden spooners St Kilda and struggling Brisbane who finished in the bottom 4. 

If that was our start, we'd have been saying all the same things. Oh, we can't beat the sides around us, our competitors, but we have no trouble beating up the lowly sides. We're flattrack bullies etc etc.

Their 2014 finals campaign was better than their 2013 finals series, winning two finals easily, but only won their prelim against Port on the MCG by 3 points. Again, nowhere near as good as our 2021 finals series.

Moving on to 2015, and this time, they finished 3rd on 16 wins. They went the first 10 rounds 6-4. To Round 10, they lost to Essendon (who would finish 4th bottom), Port (who would finish 9th), GWS (who finished 11th) and one of their main competitors Sydney (who finished 4th, one place below Hawthorn that year).

Meanwhile, they beat Geelong (who would miss the 8 that year), us (who were very ordinary in our second year under Roos - we finished 13th), the 16th placed Suns and the 14th placed St Kilda. 

Again, a season to Round 10, nothing to write home about. And their finals campaign in 2015 saw them lose their qualifying final and having to go the long way to win it.

Why did I bother with all this? Well, perspective is a funny thing. And it's bizarre how quickly we forget things. We've forgotten how powerful and abnormal our 2021 finals campaign was. Expecting us to replicate that was always folly.

As for it's all over by Round 10 or 11, well, history shows us that is simply not the case and that if you're in the hunt for the top 4 and injury-free come the last few rounds, that's the goal. Just because we're not the clear premiership standout by Round 10, doesn't mean we won't win it, because we know how that one goes, don't we Melbourne fans (*cough* 10-0 in 2022 *cough*).

Making top 4 on the back of beating up on weaker clubs twice in a season has all the hallmarks on the Lions of recent years.

Good shape - scoring sources? Our problem is we can’t score against other top 4/8 hopefuls. Our fwds have no separation, the ball constantly being bombed in, no smalls at the drop of the ball. These are basics taught at junior level.

How have we changed the way we play? I’d argue other teams have changed and we’re still hanging our hat on the 2021 flag. Fast ball movement by hand or foot to players running in numbers opens us up every time. We are too predictable, Dimma said it after Anzac Eve, everyone knows how to beat us they just didn’t have the cattle to execute it long enough. The last 2 weeks prove him to be correct.
 

Due to other teams falling over themselves and our soft draw we will play finals. But unless we change the way we play we are simply fools gold. Yesterday’s loss was nothing to do with the absence of Petty and Oliver, purely an outdated gameplan and a coach refusing to change things up. How the [censored] can none of Goodwin (premiership coach), Choco (premiership coach) Yze (multiple assistant premiership coach) identify the way were playing and moving the ball inside fwd 50 is not sustainable this year?
 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,391]

Anyway I don’t know why I care so much, the AFLW and VFL teams might go back to back and that will make everything better….

Edited May 28, 2023 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Demonsone 2,037]

Including our straight finals exit in 2022 we have beaten 1 current top 8 team (dogs) in 13 games. 
 

Zero trust 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Demonsone

[leave it to deever 17,511]

Well this thread didn't age well.

[Stiff Arm 4,419]

[BDA 22,751]

1 hour ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Anyway I don’t know why I care so much, the AFLW and VFL teams might go back to back and that will make everything better….

I love our AFLW team. Plenty of heart and grit just like the boys. But they have one thing the boys don’t have. a dominant KPF! Would make a big difference.

[BDA 22,751]

6 hours ago, FritschyBusiness said:

we will be fine

Hope you’re right 

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,391]

28 minutes ago, BDA said:

I love our AFLW team. Plenty of heart and grit just like the boys. But they have one thing the boys don’t have. a dominant KPF! Would make a big difference.

Mihocek is the Pies KPF, a solid contributor but hardly a star. But the difference is the Pies know this and kick to his advantage.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

7 hours ago, FritschyBusiness said:

we will be fine

Yes, at 7-4 I’m not taking the tarp off the dinghy just yet. 

[binman 42,922]

3 hours ago, old dee said:

Hmm binman can you tell me your definition of "fine". Serious question. 

Well, i think we will finish top 4 and will go on to win the flag. 

[old dee 23,788]

8 minutes ago, binman said:

Well, i think we will finish top 4 and will go on to win the flag. 

I can only say you are the ultimate optimist. Keep on Cheering.

[old dee 23,788]

21 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Yes, at 7-4 I’m not taking the tarp off the dinghy just yet. 

Booked some flights to QLD for last week of September this morning.

[OhMyDees 1,834]

19 minutes ago, binman said:

Well, i think we will finish top 4 and will go on to win the flag. 

and Vs Pies in the GF I hope binman…

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

14 minutes ago, old dee said:

Booked some flights to QLD for last week of September this morning.

Good for you od, don’t forget to pack the misery though 

[old dee 23,788]

7 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Good for you od, don’t forget to pack the misery though 

I have only an entry level membership so even if we made the GF I would not get in DZ watching on TV is the same anywhere. You are lucky if you are wildly optimist I prefer to think I am a realist.

[beelzebub 23,364]

Trust..... a somewhat precious commodity.  Hard earnt, easily lost.

Club needs to work harder.

As an Engineer it's not whether a cup is half full or half empty.... it's simply been over-specified for the job at hand.

Do i trust us currently?  I'm not inclined to wager anything of value on the outcome of  our games .

Last year i made enquiries about a seat at the big dance.  Not worrying presently. 

[layzie 33,796]

2 hours ago, beelzebub said:

Trust..... a somewhat precious commodity.  Hard earnt, easily lost.

Club needs to work harder.

As an Engineer it's not whether a cup is half full or half empty.... it's simply been over-specified for the job at hand.

Do i trust us currently?  I'm not inclined to wager anything of value on the outcome of  our games .

Last year i made enquiries about a seat at the big dance.  Not worrying presently. 

My father is an architect and always used to talk about Frank Lloyd Wright when I was growing up. A famous quote of his that I go back to often:

"You can use an eraser on the drafting table or a sledgehammer on the construction site.”

The rationale being that mistakes cost much more in effort and money late in the process. 

[Nicko 1,382]

6 hours ago, Demonsone said:

Including our straight finals exit in 2022 we have beaten 1 current top 8 team (dogs) in 13 games. 
 

Zero trust 

According to Tom morris - Across the last 35 games we’ve won 23 games, but just five of these wins have been against top eight teams and none of those wins have been against top four teams…..

certainly time to turn that around starting with the pies in a couple of weeks time!!

[Demonsone 2,037]

21 minutes ago, Nicko said:

According to Tom morris - Across the last 35 games we’ve won 23 games, but just five of these wins have been against top eight teams and none of those wins have been against top four teams…..

certainly time to turn that around starting with the pies in a couple of weeks time!!

One step at a time let’s beat the blues first 

[Nicko 1,382]

2 hours ago, Demonsone said:

One step at a time let’s beat the blues first 

Yeah that too….!

[Wodjathefirst 2,632]

I’m an optimist so I still trust this team (and football department). But the realistic side of me would acknowledge that right now things aren’t going quite to plan.

I really think we have the cattle, it is the collective mindset of the team that worries me. We must become the hunters and  not be the team that is being hunted. I want (need) to maintain faith. Best thing we can do as supporters is to turn up and support the lads (those of us who can). They need us (19th man concept).

The next 3 games are BIG and perhaps season defining. Want to win the next three and at very worst two. A win against Carlscum is a non negotiable. One game at a time.

Life is too short so I’d rather spend much as I possibly can living in hope.  It’s a lot more fun.

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Wodjathefirst

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

I have no trust. The effort which was lacking in the last few weeks was there. I think we had a 237 rating at one stage. 
 

But I don’t trust the coaches to change the plan, I don’t trust the players to try something different and take some risk and I don’t trust their skills under pressure. 
 

Long road back from here. It’s going to get worse before it gets better. 

[Ted Lasso 19,514]

Right now we are a top 4 team based on talent, our system isn't top 4, teams have figured it out, and our hunger isn't what it was in 2021. 

I suspect the club needs to do a review and make some tweaks for us to really contend this year, the talent is there, but i don't think we're any better than the team that went out in straight sets right now 

[Bobby McKenzie 2,385]

10 hours ago, OhMyDees said:

and Vs Pies in the GF I hope binman…

And I think we have a 19 to 1 success rate over Collingwood in finals over the years. 1958 still 

leaves a bad taste in my mouth though.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Bobby McKenzie

[58er 6,433]

On 5/26/2023 at 12:03 AM, A F said:

I was using points against, yeah. And fair enough, more complex than that. It was a slightly crude evaluation, but suggests we're doing a lot right defensively. 

As I just mentioned in the stats thread, we're 4th for ground ball gets and we're 4th for defensive tackles inside 50.

I can't seem to find the 'defending inside 50s' stat that you're referring to, but given we're top 4 for ground ball gets and defensive tackles inside 50, I'm not sure how the 'defending inside 50s' stat is calculated.

Given our around the ground stoppage work isn't as strong (we're 17th), perhaps this is where/why our 'defending inside 50s' percentage is suffering, but the around the ground stoppage percentage doesn't outline whether we're losing the majority of these clearances, say in the forward half, or the back half. That would be interesting to know. You wouldn't happen to have a break down of which part of the ground stoppage clearances are won and lost would you, @WheeloRatings?

But even if we are losing more stoppages in the back half / inside defensive 50, that may be the trade off we make to score more (commit less players to block space, enabling swifter exits when we do win the ball ourselves), or it may simply be a factor of rolling different personnel through the around the ground stoppages. As the season progresses and our elite players spend more time in there, that stat could naturally improve itself.

I guess it's a bit of a wait and see, because there are a few variables in those scenarios.

We haven't hot time to wait and see AF. 
This surely hasn't changed for 5/6 weeks snd we have 3 games of footy  in the next 3 Rounds that will define our season most likely.

Our game day problems are left to fester for far too long and haunt us on a daily each round basis plus each quarter as well. 

The following are done points about out game and where we are at in 2023.

1. The most missing thing from 2021 standard is our PRESSURE. We no longer create it ALL over the ground. 
2. The ability to perform at or near our top agsinst the top 8 ( and even lower at times) is a missing art dating back to last half of 2022. Our fitness was allegedly the major issue with many tired and carrying injuries the culprit.
Not sure where we are but generally when we lose closely we are our own worst enemies with poor connection and horrible misses that compound our footy and give critics the out saying "bad kicking is bad football"  Saturdays loss reminded me of the 2021 loss to GWS where we failed in the last quarter snd all term looked winners. 
3. We at present don't seem to have that magic that produces a star out of the blue a bit like Rooy in the Anzac Eve game. Kossie needs a fresh challenge and Fritta doesn't look happy to me. Harmes and he were very cool when Bailey was cut across leading. A goal followed shortly afterwards but no convo with each other visible to me to clear the situation and reset on the forward line. A smile/ laugh then would ease their tension surely. 
4. Again the team seems confused about its game plan and the defence is not the same in its play and execution as previously. Both May and Lever have had average seasons for them ( both play on such an edge and don't look relaxed as before ie 2021/2022.  I believe they are like Goody a bit any thing less than a 2021 version in personnel creates a problem in team psyche. Clearly vs Suns Turner was (although I thought he played a better game than given credit for after watching the replay) new and the backline looked like a family with 5 kids and Disco was the black sheep from the cousins family let loose for the day. This sounds harsh but without Petty as their loyal and constant companion to sure up most errors if they occur, or mark  or punch that team aspect looks fragile to me. 
5. I am a fan of giving Harry a go at CHF but if it inhibits the backline to such an extent why not start him there and have Tmac as a backup at CHF and at least change them up. 
6. Rooy is suffering from the dysfunctional forward line and clearly needs to be on the third defender from the opposition. But he seems he is always flying with too many others and from last in the pack needing a big run at the ball. What  about our forwards LEADING for a change? 

6. I also think our team is or appears stale not 100% connected on the ground ( not like 2021 and early 2022 at least) and no life or aggression in our game plan ( up to Round 4 seemed ok) and since our surprise loss to Bombers very much down on confidence with leaders also backward hence David King mentioning his Gawny solo vs Port etc. He has a point really no matter what Goody said. 
7. If we are to evolve and become a Dynasty then about a third of our 23 need refreshing or dropping on form. 
The naysayers will say who can replace this one and that but fresh ideas and personnel are the best antidote for energy and spirit. Remember what Ross Lyon did dripped 2 of his regulars snd he got the result he wanted. Greater team emphasis snd form from all. I mean would the world come to an end if ANB or say Lever or Gawny were managed or demoted? We need to learn agsin of our missed opportunities In 2022 and act quickly now.

Many may not agree totally  with me but some of the points above are clear up see and need addressing at this stage of the season.