Stats Files - 2023

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

1 hour ago, adonski said:

Oliver 85% CBA attendances (R 1-4) (-5% on 2022 numbers)
Trac 66% (-9%)
Viney 65% (-10%)

Can't expect them to attend many more I wouldn't have thought..

 

Oliver yes.  Not sure about the other two Adonski.  I'd like to see the CBA of this season (averages) so far vs that of the 2021 season averages. 

However, 9% & 10% drop off for Tracc and Viney is substantial IMV (vs 2022).  Nearly 20% drop off between them.

My theory is....its the combination of the CBA plus how many extras  you are rolling through there.... and how far the quality of those extra drops away IF you end up rolling one (or maybe more) too many for the sake of looking for extra assists.

Quality is fine but if that quality drops away too far and add to that the CBA of say Tracc & Viney dropping off significantly, then that might impact on their form (CB form/effectiveness i mean).  Emphasis on might.

The absence of Max is also a major factor of course.  Lack of continuity (with the main crew) and also his own clearances are no doubt hurting us at times.

Edited April 15, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[adonski 9,151]

4 minutes ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Oliver yes.  Not sure about the other two Adonski.  I'd like to see the CBA of this season (averages) so far vs that of the 2021 season averages.  Need to compare it against that or even last season for comparative relevance.

My theory is....its the combination of the CBA plus how many extras  you are rolling through there.... and how far the quality of those extra drops away IF you end up rolling one (or maybe more) too many for the sake of looking for extra assists.  Quality is fine but if that quality drops away too far AND the CBA of say Tracc & Viney have dropped away in a significant way from the last two seasons ... that might impact on their form.  Emphasis on might.

The absence of Max is also a major factor of course.  Lack of continuity (with the main crew) and also his own clearances are no doubt hurting us at times.

2021
Oliver 87%
Trac 79% 
Viney 71% 

I don't think they're meaningful enough differences

We need guys like Rivers & Pickett in there as a point of difference (and for development)

Jordon is serviceable as a defensive mid, too

I don't like seeing Sparrow & ANB in there though, they're ineffectual 

Edited April 15, 2023 by adonski

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

Just now, adonski said:

2021
Oliver 87%
Trac 79% 
Viney 71% 

I don't think they're meaningful enough differences

We need guys like Rivers & Pickett in there as a point of difference (and for development)

Jordon is serviceable as a defensive mid, too

I don't like seeing Sparrow & ANB in there though, they're ineffectual 

Thanks mate....

So Viney is marginal vs 2021 but substantial vs last season (IMO).

Tracc's abscence is substantial vs 2022 & slightly more so vs 2021

I disagree re rivers being a point of diff.  If he shows he is capable sure.  But i've yet to witness it.  There's no point having a "point of difference" if he's a much weaker "point of diff".  All you're doing is giving the oppo a bit of a break every time he spends a fair chunk of time there.

Kozzy's still learning but as an outside option and/or pick pocket with silky skills he is showing something on occasions.  Unfortunately today wasn't one of those occasions but worth persevering with (in very small doses) IMV.

I'd be seriously considering sending Gus back in there rather than say Rivers or Sparrow.  Speaking of Gus, any CBA stats on him for this season + 2022 & 2021 by any chance pls?

Wondering if it's worth giving Dunstan a bit of time through the middle as a filler for Viney when he's on the bench (in place of Sparrow)??

[Gawndy the Great 7,398]

I think we learnt that last year isn’t a sustainable model. Not giving our 2nd tier and junior mids more time in CBA last year has stagnated their development - perhaps they are now playing catch-up. I think they will definitely be the better for it as the season progresses and the teams that roll lesser numbers through will likely tire as we have done previously. Well that is the hope anyway.

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

Round 5, 2023 Adelaide Oval - Bombers vs Demons
 

There's so much that could be said about today but hey... it's super easy from here to say a whole lot of stuff.  Alot tougher to do than to say.

Bottom line though, we seem to be in a wee bit of doggy doo.  Hopefully Goody & the boys can scrape the [censored] off our boots and quickly!

He might also want to hand out some Grippo to each of the boys.  Talk about a case of the fumbles in slippery or wet conditions.  That happens to a number of players at times of course, but it seems to be very contagious for so many at the moment.

2 bog ordinary performances out of 5 ....alarm bells should now be ringing at a decent SPL.  If they aren't then we can kiss any chance of a prelim in 2023 goodbye!  That was too easy for that mob today, way too easy.

Clarry & Tracc the only two players to crack the 4.0 plus rating which is roughly the area you need at least 6 or more players to be to have a good chance of winning IMV.  Too much left to way too few (again!!).

Team rating this week  a massive 13.5% off Season 2022's rating (68.89)

Player	Rating	Rank
C Oliver	6.050	1
C Petracca	5.375	2
H Petty	3.525	3
Ed Langdon	3.475	4
T Rivers	3.400	5
B Grundy #	3.350	6
Jack Viney	3.350	7
A Tomlinson	3.175	8
J Bowey	3.125	9
L Hunter	2.850	10
B Fritsch	2.750	11
A N-Bullen	2.425	12
Steven May	2.400	13
T Sparrow	2.350	14
A Brayshaw	2.250	15
K Pickett	2.100	16
J V Rooyen #	1.950	17
K Chandler	1.750	18
Judd McVee	1.225	19
J Melksham	1.125	20
J Jordon > 33%	1.025	21
T McDonald #	0.625	22
C Spargo < 38%	-0.050	23
Team Score	59.65
Top 6	25.18
Bottom 6	7.70

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

Edited April 15, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[buck_nekkid 5,491]

Tommo near the top of the table?  Man, that really says something about our day… 8th best according to stats.  Huge negative impact on the match. Those numbers are awful across the board.

[DeeZone 7,769]

DD those numbers really bare out what we witnessed last night apart from Tracc and Clarry we were pretty ordinary across the board.TMac and Spargs before being concussed were both poor whereas the stats make Tommo and Bowey appear better than they were. Melk started ok but can’t play out a game.

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

 

11 hours ago, buck_nekkid said:

Tommo near the top of the table?  Man, that really says something about our day… 8th best according to stats.  Huge negative impact on the match. Those numbers are awful across the board.

 

8 hours ago, DeeZone said:

DD those numbers really bare out what we witnessed last night apart from Tracc and Clarry we were pretty ordinary across the board.TMac and Spargs before being concussed were both poor whereas the stats make Tommo and Bowey appear better than they were. Melk started ok but can’t play out a game.

I would say the ratings for Bowey & Tommo were influenced a fair bit by intercepts and rebounds.  Some of it made up from effective disposals also.  But when you watch effective disposals from the AFL highlights package on individual players, some of these are not all that effective IMO.  Some of them just end up somewhere up the field to a 50/50 contest that doesn't always favour the team at all.

Aside from that the actual impact of what they brought on the day wasn't the greatest from what i witnessed as well.  I had both of them in my bottom rung of players on the day but they had a few mates!  Our defenders were under the pump quite a bit sadly.  Not many wins in many areas at all.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[Demonsterative 1,926]

Our whole forward line in the bottom 8. 😬

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

Weighted Average Ratings up to & including Rnd 5, 2023 vs H&A Season 2022

May a bit of a worry vs his season 2022 form.  Bowey, Gus & Viney also dropping away a little, albeit not quite as severe.

Haven't watched or seen the results from Casey yet (about to do watch now) but surely it's time to start putting more time into Laurie and/or Moniz (Moniz might be a bit further away) in order to bring them up to the speed & intensity of AFL as Melk's eventual replacement/s?  That's not to say Melk shouldn't be played where match ups / circumstances and form suggest.  However, it just feels to me like now is the time to start putting more time into alternatives from here.

Player	2023 Rating	2023 Rank	2022 Rating	% Change vs 2022	2022 Rank	Change in Rank vs 2022
C Oliver	5.760	1	5.320	8.27	1	0
C Petracca	4.655	2	4.456	4.47	2	0
Max Gawn # < *	4.125	3	3.215	28.30	8	5
J Jordon > *	4.092	4	3.164	29.33	9	5
T Rivers	4.005	5	2.423	65.29	18	13
K Pickett	3.533	6	2.118	66.81	21	15
B Grundy #	3.505	7	-	-	-	-
A Brayshaw	3.475	8	3.839	-9.48	5	-3
Jack Viney	3.456	9	3.971	-12.97	3	-6
Jake Lever	3.369	10	2.703	24.64	14	4
A Tomlinson	3.233	11	2.079	55.51	22	11
Ed Langdon	3.120	12	3.109	0.35	11	-1
Steven May	3.075	13	3.971	-22.56	3	-10
L Hunter	3.025	14	-	-	-	-
Alex N-Bullen	2.865	15	2.688	6.58	15	0
H Petty #	2.695	16	2.392	12.67	19	3
T Sparrow	2.690	17	2.665	0.94	16	-1
J V Rooyen #	2.683	18	-	-	-	-
Bayley Fritsch	2.563	19	1.936	32.39	27	8
K Chandler	2.545	20	3.128	-18.64	10	-10
Jake Bowey	2.520	21	2.856	-11.76	13	-8
T McDonald #	2.344	22	1.939	20.89	26	4
J Harmes	2.225	23	3.082	-27.81	12	-11
Judd McVee	2.210	24	-	-	-	-
Ben Brown # <	2.033	25	1.759	15.58	29	4
C Spargo	1.935	26	1.981	-2.32	24	-2
M Hibberd *	1.788	27	2.613	-31.57	17	-10
J Melksham >	1.437	28	1.947	-26.19	25	-3
B Laurie < *	1.150	29	-	-	-	-
Team Rating	73.33		68.89	6.45

* Played less than two full matches (in total) - player rating compromised

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed Out at least once or more

> Subbed In at least once or more

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

[Demonland 65,201]

 

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

[buck_nekkid 5,491]

2 hours ago, Demon Dynasty said:

Any idea how this is calculated?

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

58 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

Any idea how this is calculated?

No haha... throw some darts?

[Demonland 65,201]

 

[picket fence 15,177]

On 4/17/2023 at 8:35 PM, buck_nekkid said:

Any idea how this is calculated?

Yeah I think these guys are the Mathematicians who assist in the calculations!!😁

 

[WheeloRatings 910]

On 4/17/2023 at 8:35 PM, buck_nekkid said:

Any idea how this is calculated?

What are the Power Rankings?
This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

Source: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-power-rankings-after-round-5-analysis-highlights-every-club-ranked-ladder-predictions-contenders-latest-news/news-story/4f9d285140f1064353234930b2d313a4


Several of the Squiggle models have similar  "Power Rankings" here, each with its own methodology:

https://squiggle.com.au/power-rankings/

[binman 38,165]

Wheelo, any chance you can add time in forward half and total team metres gained to your brilliant stats?

@WheeloRatings

Edited April 20, 2023 by binman

[WheeloRatings 910]

1 hour ago, binman said:

Wheelo, any chance you can add time in forward half and total team metres gained to your brilliant stats?

@WheeloRatings

I'm looking at adding the overall team stats for individual matches to the Match Stats page, and this would include total team metres gained.  Although unfortunately I don't think I have access to the time in forward half stats. If I get it, I'll include it on the site.

[WheeloRatings 910]

On 4/20/2023 at 5:17 PM, binman said:

Wheelo, any chance you can add time in forward half and total team metres gained to your brilliant stats?

@WheeloRatings

@binman FYI, team stats for individual matches are now available on the Match Stats page:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230505

[binman 38,165]

11 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

@binman FYI, team stats for individual matches are now available on the Match Stats page:

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230505

That's great wheelo. .

I looked at the dees bombers game and it's got the key stats to get a sense of the game and a good layout to review the info quickly.

On time in forward half, combining inside 50 and metres gained differentials is a pretty good proxy I would have thought.

Bombers ahead, albeit by not a huge amount, in both AND contested ball. That's the game right there

The other stat it would be great to have is scores from turnovers.

Any chance that stat could be added (conscious it might be another Champion data stat that is not available)?

[Demonland 65,201]

 

[Demon Dynasty 15,507]

Round 6, 2023 Anzac Eve MCG - Demons vs Tigers

Player	Rating	Rank
Jack Viney	5.400	1
C Petracca	4.550	2
Ed Langdon	4.225	3
Steven May	4.225	3
M Hibberd	4.050	5
J Jordon	3.800	6
T Sparrow	3.700	7
C Oliver	3.575	8
L Hunter	3.575	8
A Brayshaw	3.450	10
Jake Lever	3.125	11
T Rivers < 74%	3.100	12
K Chandler	2.650	13
J Van Rooyen	2.525	14
Judd McVee	2.425	15
B Grundy #	2.225	16
B Fritsch	1.925	17
A N-Bullen	1.700	18
Max Gawn #	1.500	19
H Petty	1.425	20
J Bowey	1.250	21
K Pickett	0.550	22
B Laurie > 9%	0.150	23
Team Score	64.95
Top 6	26.25
Bottom 6	8.35

# Hit outs to advantage not counted

< Subbed out / TOG %

> Subbed in / TOG %

Stats courtesy of footwire.com

Edited April 24, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[WheeloRatings 910]

On 4/22/2023 at 5:25 PM, binman said:

That's great wheelo. .

I looked at the dees bombers game and it's got the key stats to get a sense of the game and a good layout to review the info quickly.

On time in forward half, combining inside 50 and metres gained differentials is a pretty good proxy I would have thought.

Bombers ahead, albeit by not a huge amount, in both AND contested ball. That's the game right there

The other stat it would be great to have is scores from turnovers.

Any chance that stat could be added (conscious it might be another Champion data stat that is not available)?

I found out that the time in forward half stats are published in the Herald Sun, so I have subscribed to that and I'll see if it's worth keeping the subscription. I have added time in forward half and pressure for last night below. Also, I am able to calculate the score sources from one of my datasets so I have included that information below.

Melbourne v Richmond

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230608

Note: first number below is Melbourne, higher value is bold.

Pressure

Q1: 173 - 187
Q2: 159 - 162
Q3: 154 - 171
Q4: 188 - 157
Tot: 168 - 169

Time in forward half

47% - 53%

Score sources

Centre bounce
2.0.12 - 1.3.9

Ball up
0.0.0 - 3.0.18

Throw in
2.0.12 - 1.0.6

Turnover
11.6.72 - 6.9.45

Kick-in
0.0.0 - 0.0.0

Expected scores

77 - 85

 

 

Score sources, Rounds 1 - 6

Centre bounce
v WB: 2.0.12 - 0.1.1
v Bris: 1.0.6 - 2.1.13
v Syd: 3.3.21 - 2.4.16
v WC: 1.1.7 - 1.1.7
v Ess: 2.3.15 - 4.2.26
v Rich: 2.0.12 - 1.3.9

Ball up
v WB: 0.3.3 - 1.1.7
v Bris: 1.0.6 - 3.0.18
v Syd: 2.1.13 - 2.1.13
v WC: 4.4.28 - 1.1.7
v Ess: 1.1.7 - 1.1.7
v Rich: 0.0.0 - 3.0.18

Throw in
v WB: 2.1.13 - 2.0.12
v Bris: 3.0.18 - 4.1.25
v Syd: 3.0.18 - 2.1.13
v WC: 4.1.25 - 2.1.13
v Ess: 1.1.7 - 0.2.2
v Rich: 2.0.12 - 1.0.6

Turnover
v WB: 11.9.75 - 5.9.39
v Bris: 7.4.46 - 5.7.37
v Syd: 13.4.82 - 5.6.36
v WC: 10.6.66 - 4.5.29
v Ess: 5.6.36 - 10.9.69
v Rich: 11.6.72 - 6.9.45

Kick-in
v WB: 2.0.12 - 1.0.6
v Bris: 1.0.6 - 0.0.0
v Syd: 0.0.0 - 1.0.6
v WC: 0.0.0 - 1.1.7
v Ess: 2.0.12 - 0.0.0
v Rich: 0.0.0 - 0.0.0

Edited April 24, 2023 by WheeloRatings

[buck_nekkid 5,491]

13 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

I found out that the time in forward half stats are published in the Herald Sun, so I have subscribed to that and I'll see if it's worth keeping the subscription. I have added time in forward half and pressure for last night below. Also, I am able to calculate the score sources from one of my datasets so I have included that information below.

Melbourne v Richmond

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20230608

Pressure

Q1: 173 - 187
Q2: 159 - 162
Q3: 154 - 171
Q4: 188 - 157
Tot: 168 - 169

Time in forward half

47% - 53%

Score sources

Centre bounce
2.0.12 - 1.3.9

Ball up
0.0.0 - 3.0.18

Throw in
2.0.12 - 1.0.6

Turnover
11.6.72 - 6.9.45

Kick-in
0.0.0 - 0.0.0

Expected scores

77 - 85

 

 

Score sources, Rounds 1 - 6

Centre bounce
v WB: 2.0.12 - 0.1.1
v Bris: 1.0.6 - 2.1.13
v Syd: 3.3.21 - 2.4.16
v WC: 1.1.7 - 1.1.7
v Ess: 2.3.15 - 4.2.26
v Rich: 2.0.12 - 1.3.9

Ball up
v WB: 0.3.3 - 1.1.7
v Bris: 1.0.6 - 3.0.18
v Syd: 2.1.13 - 2.1.13
v WC: 4.4.28 - 1.1.7
v Ess: 1.1.7 - 1.1.7
v Rich: 0.0.0 - 3.0.18

Throw in
v WB: 2.1.13 - 2.0.12
v Bris: 3.0.18 - 4.1.25
v Syd: 3.0.18 - 2.1.13
v WC: 4.1.25 - 2.1.13
v Ess: 1.1.7 - 0.2.2
v Rich: 2.0.12 - 1.0.6

Turnover
v WB: 11.9.75 - 5.9.39
v Bris: 7.4.46 - 5.7.37
v Syd: 13.4.82 - 5.6.36
v WC: 10.6.66 - 4.5.29
v Ess: 5.6.36 - 10.9.69
v Rich: 11.6.72 - 6.9.45

Kick-in
v WB: 2.0.12 - 1.0.6
v Bris: 1.0.6 - 0.0.0
v Syd: 0.0.0 - 1.0.6
v WC: 0.0.0 - 1.1.7
v Ess: 2.0.12 - 0.0.0
v Rich: 0.0.0 - 0.0.0

Can i assume bolded numbers are MFC?

thanks for collating and sharing!